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OK, there are always predictions of an imminent stock market correction. There is always someone predicting financial doom. Once in a while, one of them is right. To me, it feels like we may be due for just such an event. I wouldn't be surprised to see DJIA lose 30-50%. Stock prices are high, a major part of our workforce is idle, and we've had a record breaking bull market with a major Covid divot in the middle, and all that.

So, suppose that it does happen. Independence Day rolls around, and all the investment and retirement funds in the country are suddenly worth a lot less. People with a major investment component to their income take a serious hit. Wealth nationwide takes a big hit.

What is the political and social fallout?
There will be a great gnashing of teeth.

There will be a massive amount of talk about who did what and why and how.

Then life will move forward again with everyone being much poorer... except for the one or 2% that will thrive as the new Masters as you become a cog in the wheel of slavery.

What can you do now?

The money that you currently have still has value, use it accordingly to prevent your future enslavement.
Nothing changing here.
Congress will put a couple turbochargers on the printing presses and all will be good.
Killing the fossil fuel industry has not got to the stock market yet.
The DJIA P/E ratio is around 29. That says that on average, stock is really worth much less than people are paying for it. So if the crunch does come....

Voters is 2022 are seriously pissed off, and let it be known at the ballot box. Dems lose both houses of Congress.

Unemployment rises sharply in the summer of 2021, and bad guys take to the streets, but this time the riots are far more serious. Government responds with greater force, and restrictions on personal liberties.

In an effort to right the country's finances, the government drives interest rates to all time lows. One effect of this is to make the dollar much less desireable on the international market. The value of the dollar slides vs. foreign currency, and imported items rise in price.

The combination of stock market correction and low interest leaves investors with no place to go.

Gotta quit.... this is depressing me.
Originally Posted by denton
The DJIA P/E ratio is around 29. That says that on average, stock is really worth much less than people are paying for it. So if the crunch does come....

Voters is 2022 are seriously pissed off, and let it be known at the ballot box. Dems lose both houses of Congress.

Unemployment rises sharply in the summer of 2021, and bad guys take to the streets, but this time the riots are far more serious. Government responds with greater force, and restrictions on personal liberties.

In an effort to right the country's finances, the government drives interest rates to all time lows. One effect of this is to make the dollar much less desireable on the international market. The value of the dollar slides vs. foreign currency, and imported items rise in price.

The combination of stock market correction and low interest leaves investors with no place to go.

Gotta quit.... this is depressing me.


YOU ARE NOT WRONG, BUT I EXPECT A COUPLE WARS TO ADD TO THE MIX.

Undeniably the US military will be tested.
Money goes where it is welcome and well treated. Right now, I see people hesitant to start businesses based on that notion.

You currently have a government that believes a worker should get $30K a year no matter how low skilled that worker may be. Is that an artifact of smart governing? It sounds good if you are a huge company that wants to crush competing new start ups.

I see optimism crashing. With it, goes the market. And I am a big believer in the market. I retired in my mid 40s because of it.
Originally Posted by RAS
Money goes where it is welcome and well treated. Right now, I see people hesitant to start businesses based on that notion.

You currently have a government that believes a worker should get $30K a year no matter how low skilled that worker may be. Is that an artifact of smart governing? It sounds good if you are a huge company that wants to crush competing new start ups.

I see optimism crashing. With it, goes the market. And I am a big believer in the market. I retired in my mid 40s because of it.




You think any corporation with stock traded in the market pays less than minimum wage?
I made an average of 23% per year for the last 26 years in the stock market.

For 26 years, I have never "timed the market".

In the 2 weeks since Biden was inaugurated, I am up 10%.

Long term, I think the market is going to be ok.
For the individual investors:

Much depends upon the individual’s time horizon concerning which way the market goes within the short to medium period time frame.

Long term I’d expect it to rise.
Originally Posted by Clarkm
I made an average of 23% per year for the last 26 years in the stock market.

For 26 years, I have never "timed the market".

In the 2 weeks since Biden was inaugurated, I am up 10%.

Long term, I think the market is going to be ok.


You ought to be well into nine figures net worth by now.
Congrats.
Originally Posted by SAcharlie

You think any corporation with stock traded in the market pays less than minimum wage?



He thinks a little harder than you Wheelz.

Doesn't Mickey D's trade Dumbass?

You should talk to your Doc, I think maybe the paralization is creeping into you mushy head
The last times the PE ratio’s were at this level were

1929
1999
2007

Make your own calls
Buy low, sell high.

I’ve taken some profit, but honestly, with the firehose of money spraying into the economy, worldwide, it’s hard to imagine the market dropping much, FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. There’s just no other place for money to go but real estate, and if you think stocks are high.......
Originally Posted by dale06
Originally Posted by Clarkm
I made an average of 23% per year for the last 26 years in the stock market.

For 26 years, I have never "timed the market".

In the 2 weeks since Biden was inaugurated, I am up 10%.

Long term, I think the market is going to be ok.


You ought to be well into nine figures net worth by now.
Congrats.



"9 figures", I wish.
I started out too poor.
228 times pocket change is still small.
Originally Posted by Dutch
Buy low, sell high.

I’ve taken some profit, but honestly, with the firehose of money spraying into the economy, worldwide, it’s hard to imagine the market dropping much, FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. There’s just no other place for money to go but real estate, and if you think stocks are high.......




Just depends on the availability of paper for printing.

Lol!

And yeah, I'll take real estate any day. Made that decision long ago.
Originally Posted by Dutch
Buy low, sell high.

I’ve taken some profit, but honestly, with the firehose of money spraying into the economy, worldwide, it’s hard to imagine the market dropping much, FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. There’s just no other place for money to go but real estate, and if you think stocks are high.......


Where I'm at also. I do think that after the next round of stimulus that I will move some Growth funds to Balanced funds to help ride out the next correction.
It has a chance of a +$50K day for me.
If the lefties don't totally screw it up, IMO, the economy is teed up for a good run. Get the vaccine out and it will take off.
Originally Posted by logger
Congress will put a couple turbochargers on the printing presses and all will be good.


Yep. The addicts on market Street about to get another 1.9 trillion dollar hit. The market ain't going anywhere down until the fed stops printing.
Originally Posted by Old_Toot
For the individual investors:

Much depends upon the individual’s time horizon concerning which way the market goes within the short to medium period time frame.

Long term I’d expect it to rise.

It always rises long term

Short term is extremely risky yet potentially extremely rewarding.
Originally Posted by mtnsnake
Killing the fossil fuel industry has not got to the stock market yet.


YEP ! and it WILL !!
Someone commented that they could get by at $20,000 a year. I think it may have been under the base income thread.

We have also had a couple of threads about a time capsule of what things cost presently.

So, if trillions of dollars of unbacked currency continue to enter the economy every item you buy will be purchased with diluted money.

Some people can't quite grasp this concept. Let's say you have 500 American dollars in your wallet right now and you go to the store to buy Goods. But when you reach for your wallet and pull out the money it is 500 Canadian dollars in there instead. Doesn't really matter what happened you just now have 500 Canadian dollars instead of 500 US dollars.

You select a $300 TV and hand the cashier 300 Canadian dollars... and they say I'm sorry sir Canadian Dollars are not equal to American Dollars you will need to give me 70 more Canadian dollars.

Everytime money is printed without backing it with actual physically exchanged labor for goods produced you dilute the value of the existing dollar. This is non-negotiable and this is a fact of economics.

So let's contemplate the fella who thinks he could easily get by on $20,000 a year. The point that he is missing is The Magic Shell game that politicians play... they know the money they print now is diluted but pretend like it is not because people love to get free money. But when a can of beans in the future cost $20... the politicians are long gone and yakking about whatever... a bridge to nowhere... transgender studies for nuns?

What about the property taxes on his home which are a modest $5,000 a year now but will become $15,000 a year tomorrow?

People will say no way that's impossible, a large percentage of America has been unemployed for a year now and the coronavirus nonsense is ramping up not ramping down.

So why is the stock market continuing to go up?

Because every time free money exists and people have Surplus in their life to invest stock market increase in value. Where else are people going to put their money?

This does not mean that the aggregate value of the stock market is actually growing it means that it is keeping up with the influx of diluted dollars.

A rising tide lifts all boats.

The wealthy go along with this... in the same way that a boat salesman will go along with you financing $100,000 boat when you actually came in just for a 17 footer . They'll make their money coming... and they'll make their money on the repossession and the resale... no problem at all.

Just like when your property taxes double or unemployment is cut off or your retirement or social security or military pension defaults and all of a sudden you are up against a financial hardship or the market has a sudden downturn the masses will try to get out because they'll need the cash to cover their shortfall needs, the wealthy will make money coming and going on these people. And inflation still rises.

What I meant to say is we are currently engaged in a investment race to keep up with current and worsening inevitable inflation.

If you are making a 12% return on your money annually and inflation is running at 12% by the time you paid your capital gains tax you are actually losing money.

Many will say that we are currently at an all-time low on inflation. Okay, is a new vehicle more or less expensive than it was 10 years ago? Same with your property tax? Same with a college education? Same with medical treatment and insurance?

It's like people think that coronavirus is somehow going to pay for itself and getting paid not to work is the same thing as working and getting paid for it with actual undiluted dollars.

So when the Commander in cheat declares Juneteenth a national paid holiday along with another 10 other holidays for government workers, we need a Harvey Milk Day don't we? And the rest of you non government workers have to work these days to pay the taxes to pay the ever-expanding government workers not to work, you going to get a little ticked off then? It's not like you're a slave working for a master or anything right?
CashisKing....

I think your comments are correct. But add to that: It also matters how fast the money supply is circulating, and right now it is not circulating very fast. Investors and other people are sitting on the cash that they have.

[Linked Image]

Also note that shaded areas on the graph indicate recessions. The little note at the bottom that you probably can't read says that recent time is shaded yellow because we don't know for sure yet whether we are in a recession.

To me, this signals storm warnings.

And I spent my stimulus payment on a new firearm. smile
Originally Posted by CashisKing


Everytime money is printed without backing it with actual physically exchanged labor for goods produced you dilute the value of the existing dollar. This is non-negotiable and this is a fact of economics.


That’s what we were all taught in Economics school,

Problem is, that equation hasn’t worked for the last couple of decades. We’ve been increasing the money supply, and nothing happened. Inflation dropped instead of rose, interest rates dropped instead of rose.

In my opinion, the flaw in the equation is that it assumes the quantity of goods and services is fixed. No, of course, it is not. Try to raise the price of a hammer, and there are thirteen factories in China, two in Vietnam and one in India ready, willing and able to ship two containers of hammers a week at the old price.

Labor gets hard to find? There’s a company that’ll hook into your drive through window system and people in India will enter the order, and for a lot less than $15/hr.

Dentist wants 3K for a crown? 28K for a total knee replacement? US trained MD’s in several countries will do it for much less than half, transportation included.

As the amount of money increases, the amount of both goods AND services increases to soak up all that cash. No inflation.
Dutch.....

Yup. Money supply is up, inflation is running below the Fed's 2% target. But velocity of circulation is way down.

I think my situation is not too unusual. My sister and I sold the family farm, but all the available investment opportunities scare the bejabbers out of me. So it sits in a money market account, slowly being chipped away by inflation because I haven't figured out where I can put it for a safe, reasonable return. I have zero confidence in the current administration in Washington.
Originally Posted by Dutch
Originally Posted by CashisKing


Everytime money is printed without backing it with actual physically exchanged labor for goods produced you dilute the value of the existing dollar. This is non-negotiable and this is a fact of economics.


That’s what we were all taught in Economics school,

Problem is, that equation hasn’t worked for the last couple of decades. We’ve been increasing the money supply, and nothing happened. Inflation dropped instead of rose, interest rates dropped instead of rose.

In my opinion, the flaw in the equation is that it assumes the quantity of goods and services is fixed. No, of course, it is not. Try to raise the price of a hammer, and there are thirteen factories in China, two in Vietnam and one in India ready, willing and able to ship two containers of hammers a week at the old price.

Labor gets hard to find? There’s a company that’ll hook into your drive through window system and people in India will enter the order, and for a lot less than $15/hr.

Dentist wants 3K for a crown? 28K for a total knee replacement? US trained MD’s in several countries will do it for much less than half, transportation included.

As the amount of money increases, the amount of both goods AND services increases to soak up all that cash. No inflation.


I would enjoy drinking a cup of coffee with you and discussing this further. Honestly.

Under your hammer scenario... what happens to the displaced hammer makers here in America?

Or the $15 an hour McDonald's worker at the drive-thru being replaced by an Indian computer program?

Instead of contributing a worthwhile benefits to the American economy as a producer of something useful they now become a deficit collecting unemployment or welfare et al.

Years ago I had an IT fella working for me. He was upset that his counterpart in the country of India only made a fraction of what he made. I suggested that he take his money and mail it to the fella in India so that they both make the same money. He did not like that idea one bit but he thought we as a whole in America should ensure that the people in India receive the same pay that he did.

I told him it was the exact same thing is if he emailed the guy in India his paycheck or at least most of it.

He became furious... and told me that I did not understand economics at all. I let it go and headed to the restroom where I explained the details to the urinal. At least the urinal did not get angry or talk back.
The $15/hr McDonalds worker might just have enough cash to remember to push the “D” button every four years. He’s still a producer, but in a very different way. It pleases the king and queen.

Is anyone really only getting paid $7.25/hr? My 16 year old’s first job at a grocery store pays $10/hr.
Originally Posted by mtnsnake
Killing the fossil fuel industry has not got to the stock market yet.


We beat Germany and Japan in WWII by cutting off oil.
The Commies in the USA would cut off all our oil to break down civilization for a revolution.
The Globalists would cut off half our oil for maximum taxation and social control.


My grandparents in Appalachia in 1956 were on all renewables except kerosene lamps.
They raised their own hay for work horses and cows. They cooked on a wood stove.
No modern person will work that hard to be that poor without a violent revolution first.
Renewable ain't gonna happen again.
Originally Posted by CashisKing


I would enjoy drinking a cup of coffee with you and discussing this further. Honestly.


I suspect we’d have a good conversation, but may I suggest a little something to go with the coffee?

Originally Posted by CashisKing


Under your hammer scenario... what happens to the displaced hammer makers here in America?

Or the $15 an hour McDonald's worker at the drive-thru being replaced by an Indian computer program?

Instead of contributing a worthwhile benefits to the American economy as a producer of something useful they now become a deficit collecting unemployment or welfare et al.



Fun language fact: the English language is one of the very few that uses the term “making money”. Almost all languages use a variation such as “earning money”. Americans think in terms of making MORE, Other countries talk in terms of divvying up the (limited) pie. Instead of focusing on making the pie bigger, they argue about who gets the biggest piece.

The hammer guy has two choices: take the going rate, or go do something different. Custom hammers, decorative hammers, ceremonial hammers, specialty hammers, or just say “fug it, I’m going to build space rockets”.

The McD guy? Up until March of last year, even potheads and tweakers could find work, employers were hiring anyone who could fog a mirror. If McD outsources, those displaced employees most likely got a raise if they could hold a hammer by the handle.

There’s plenty of deadwood and walking wounded around, but not because there’s no work. There’s so much work, it’s scary.
Originally Posted by Dutch

As the amount of money increases, the amount of both goods AND services increases to soak up all that cash. No inflation.


I'm thinking this time may be different because production is decreasing due to the pandemic.
Originally Posted by denton
Dutch.....

Yup. Money supply is up, inflation is running below the Fed's 2% target. But velocity of circulation is way down.

I think my situation is not too unusual. My sister and I sold the family farm, but all the available investment opportunities scare the bejabbers out of me. So it sits in a money market account, slowly being chipped away by inflation because I haven't figured out where I can put it for a safe, reasonable return. I have zero confidence in the current administration in Washington.


The first rule of investing is to not lose what you’ve got.

Old Rothschild stated that few if any ever went broke by taking one percent less but many have gone broke chasing one percent more,

All of that is old saws but true. There’s no need to jump if you’re not sure and it might be wise to wait and see what Biden’s first hundred days yields and there’s a ways to go with that.

Jmo
Originally Posted by denton
Dutch.....

Yup. Money supply is up, inflation is running below the Fed's 2% target. But velocity of circulation is way down.

I think my situation is not too unusual. My sister and I sold the family farm, but all the available investment opportunities scare the bejabbers out of me. So it sits in a money market account, slowly being chipped away by inflation because I haven't figured out where I can put it for a safe, reasonable return. I have zero confidence in the current administration in Washington.



From a historical perspective it's not a good time to buy stocks and real estate is pretty high. Sometimes the best investment is to be patient and protect your capitol. Having cash with things implode is good thing. I mostly invest in real estate, but I'm on the sidelines with cash in the bank. As soon as foreclosures start up again I'll probably be back in. Right now I'm sitting on my hands waiting. Maybe I'm dumb, but I've seen this kind market speculation a few times before and it always ends the same way. Cash is king, buy low and sell high is how you make money not by following the herd.
Originally Posted by mtnsnake
Killing the fossil fuel industry has not got to the stock market yet.


Exactly. When gas hits $4 we’re [bleep]. Just like last time. And China will keep on producing at levels unheard of, environment be damned. White folks are stupid.
Originally Posted by Stormin_Norman
Originally Posted by denton
Dutch.....

Yup. Money supply is up, inflation is running below the Fed's 2% target. But velocity of circulation is way down.

I think my situation is not too unusual. My sister and I sold the family farm, but all the available investment opportunities scare the bejabbers out of me. So it sits in a money market account, slowly being chipped away by inflation because I haven't figured out where I can put it for a safe, reasonable return. I have zero confidence in the current administration in Washington.



From a historical perspective it's not a good time to buy stocks and real estate is pretty high. Sometimes the best investment is to be patient and protect your capitol. Having cash with things implode is good thing. I mostly invest in real estate, but I'm on the sidelines with cash in the bank. As soon as foreclosures start up again I'll probably be back in. Right now I'm sitting on my hands waiting. Maybe I'm dumb, but I've seen this kind market speculation a few times before and it always ends the same way. Cash is king, buy low and sell high is how you make money not by following the herd.



Normally I’d agree and be following the same plan, but with inflation on the horizon, cash is the last place I want to be.
Originally Posted by jackmountain
Originally Posted by Stormin_Norman
Originally Posted by denton
Dutch.....

Yup. Money supply is up, inflation is running below the Fed's 2% target. But velocity of circulation is way down.

I think my situation is not too unusual. My sister and I sold the family farm, but all the available investment opportunities scare the bejabbers out of me. So it sits in a money market account, slowly being chipped away by inflation because I haven't figured out where I can put it for a safe, reasonable return. I have zero confidence in the current administration in Washington.



From a historical perspective it's not a good time to buy stocks and real estate is pretty high. Sometimes the best investment is to be patient and protect your capitol. Having cash with things implode is good thing. I mostly invest in real estate, but I'm on the sidelines with cash in the bank. As soon as foreclosures start up again I'll probably be back in. Right now I'm sitting on my hands waiting. Maybe I'm dumb, but I've seen this kind market speculation a few times before and it always ends the same way. Cash is king, buy low and sell high is how you make money not by following the herd.



Normally I’d agree and be following the same plan, but with inflation on the horizon, cash is the last place I want to be.



I would agree cash has risk, but you can always move it off Shore to other currencies or precious metals in a hurry. I’d say stocks and bonds have more risk.
The stock market was flat from 1967 to 1982.
15 long years of nothing.
Nixon ended the Gold standard in 1971 and inflation took off.

What was bad for stocks was the comparison of 2% dividend vs money market rates from 5% to 15% .

Money market is close to 0% right now.


So during the 70s inflation, why was that bad for stocks ..... and yet inflation seems to be good for stocks now?

Money goes where it is treated best.
Originally Posted by Clarkm


So during the 70s inflation, why was that bad for stocks ..... and yet inflation seems to be good for stocks now?



Because they tried to stop inflation with very high, I'm talking VERY high real interest rates back then. Why risk your money in the market when you could make 10% on cd's at the bank. Now they are using monetary policy to try to create inflation to stave off a deflationary collapse. Market or real estate is the only games in town for investors.

It will work until it doesn't.
Originally Posted by Old_Toot


Old Rothschild stated that few if any ever went broke by taking one percent less but many have gone broke chasing one percent more,


I was told early on to never chase momentum. 70% stock 30% bonds no matter what the market is doing. Will move stocks in to less risk as I get closer to retirement age. Trying to make up losses at age 70 doesn't sound like fun.
Originally Posted by Pat85
Originally Posted by Old_Toot


Old Rothschild stated that few if any ever went broke by taking one percent less but many have gone broke chasing one percent more,


I was told early on to never chase momentum. 70% stock 30% bonds no matter what the market is doing. Will move stocks in to less risk as I get closer to retirement age. Trying to make up losses at age 70 doesn't sound like fun.


Time horizon is or can be critical.

It pays to understand Actuarial Tables, your family history, etc and include that in one’s overall investment plan.
What other country other than here is a better investment? None that I know of....yet certain other countries have labor advantages that make them attractive.

With Biden....one of the guys who has done well for me is staying with strong performers here, along with increased emphasis on emerging markets....Time will tell.
Yes, we are in an asset bubble.

Yes, all bubbles end the same, and this one will be no different.

It will end when people loose confidence and there are no more bigger fools to pay higher prices. As for the date that will, happen, I don't know but the recent mania in high short interest stocks is a very substantial warning sign.

I'm not a fan of Bloomberg news, nor do I agree with Grantham's position on global warming, but everything else he says is spot on.





Bloomberg is a good source if you have your bullscchitt filters in service.

There’s lots of oat seeds in the horsescchitt If you pay attention.
There are no sources with names that end in “berg” that can be trusted.
Originally Posted by dale06
Originally Posted by Clarkm
I made an average of 23% per year for the last 26 years in the stock market.

For 26 years, I have never "timed the market".

In the 2 weeks since Biden was inaugurated, I am up 10%.

Long term, I think the market is going to be ok.


You ought to be well into nine figures net worth by now.
Congrats.

In 20 years at 20% gain every year wouldn't you be close to 40 times your original amount? 23% for 26 years is going take me a little while. I'll be back with it later if I don't get past my ability to cipher.
Originally Posted by Stickfight
There are no sources with names that end in “berg” that can be trusted.



Yeah boy.

You can put your total faith in anything from a wasp source, especially from white politicians.
Originally Posted by Hastings
Originally Posted by dale06
Originally Posted by Clarkm
I made an average of 23% per year for the last 26 years in the stock market.

For 26 years, I have never "timed the market".

In the 2 weeks since Biden was inaugurated, I am up 10%.

Long term, I think the market is going to be ok.


You ought to be well into nine figures net worth by now.
Congrats.

In 20 years at 20% gain every year wouldn't you be close to 40 times your original amount? 23% for 26 years is going take me a little while. I'll be back with it later if I don't get past my ability to cipher.

267.57% if my math is correct.
Originally Posted by BangPop
Originally Posted by Hastings
Originally Posted by dale06
Originally Posted by Clarkm
I made an average of 23% per year for the last 26 years in the stock market.

For 26 years, I have never "timed the market".

In the 2 weeks since Biden was inaugurated, I am up 10%.

Long term, I think the market is going to be ok.


You ought to be well into nine figures net worth by now.
Congrats.

In 20 years at 20% gain every year wouldn't you be close to 40 times your original amount? 23% for 26 years is going take me a little while. I'll be back with it later if I don't get past my ability to cipher.

267.57% if my math is correct.


I calculate 395X. Assuming he didn't spend any of his winnings.

= e ^ (.23 * 26)
Originally Posted by Whiptail
Originally Posted by BangPop
Originally Posted by Hastings
Originally Posted by dale06
Originally Posted by Clarkm
I made an average of 23% per year for the last 26 years in the stock market.

For 26 years, I have never "timed the market".

In the 2 weeks since Biden was inaugurated, I am up 10%.

Long term, I think the market is going to be ok.


You ought to be well into nine figures net worth by now.
Congrats.

In 20 years at 20% gain every year wouldn't you be close to 40 times your original amount? 23% for 26 years is going take me a little while. I'll be back with it later if I don't get past my ability to cipher.

267.57% if my math is correct.


I calculate 395X. Assuming he didn't spend any of his winnings.

= e ^ (.23 * 26)

Help me here please. Does that mean in 26 years $100 would become $39,500
Originally Posted by Old_Toot
You can put your total faith in anything from a wasp source, especially from white politicians.


Of course not. Despite their astonishing historical dedication to being relentless deceivers, Jews still do not have a full monopoly in that area.
Originally Posted by Stickfight
Originally Posted by Old_Toot
You can put your total faith in anything from a wasp source, especially from white politicians.


Of course not. Despite their astonishing historical dedication to being relentless deceivers, Jews still do not have a full monopoly in that area.


You white folk have far surpassed by any metric.
Try numerically for one.

Same for stupidity but we’ll let that speak for itself.
Originally Posted by Hastings
Originally Posted by Whiptail
Originally Posted by BangPop
Originally Posted by Hastings
Originally Posted by dale06
Originally Posted by Clarkm
I made an average of 23% per year for the last 26 years in the stock market.

For 26 years, I have never "timed the market".

In the 2 weeks since Biden was inaugurated, I am up 10%.

Long term, I think the market is going to be ok.


You ought to be well into nine figures net worth by now.
Congrats.

In 20 years at 20% gain every year wouldn't you be close to 40 times your original amount? 23% for 26 years is going take me a little while. I'll be back with it later if I don't get past my ability to cipher.

267.57% if my math is correct.


I calculate 395X. Assuming he didn't spend any of his winnings.

= e ^ (.23 * 26)

Help me here please. Does that mean in 26 years $100 would become $39,500


Hm...I got 220x, roughly. So if starting with ten grand, you'd have 2,200,000.
Originally Posted by Whiptail
Originally Posted by BangPop
Originally Posted by Hastings
Originally Posted by dale06
Originally Posted by Clarkm
I made an average of 23% per year for the last 26 years in the stock market.

For 26 years, I have never "timed the market".

In the 2 weeks since Biden was inaugurated, I am up 10%.

Long term, I think the market is going to be ok.


You ought to be well into nine figures net worth by now.
Congrats.

In 20 years at 20% gain every year wouldn't you be close to 40 times your original amount? 23% for 26 years is going take me a little while. I'll be back with it later if I don't get past my ability to cipher.

267.57% if my math is correct.


I calculate 395X. Assuming he didn't spend any of his winnings.

= e ^ (.23 * 26)

by taking 1.23 (23% growth a year) and raise it to the 26th power (26 years), I get 217x. Not sure why there are so many different results. Of course I could be wrong, but I believe this is the way to calculate it.
This is the correct formula 1.23^26=217.
In any case $1,000 would turn into a bunch of money in 26 years. Good reason to be one of the folks that collect interest instead of one who pays it.
Originally Posted by utah708
This is the correct formula 1.23^26=217.

Yep. I just rounded.
Originally Posted by Hastings
In any case $1,000 would turn into a bunch of money in 26 years. Good reason to be one of the folks that collect interest instead of one who pays it.

What would be even better would be to get the one who gets to create fake money out of nothing, then set the prime interest rate by loaning out that fake money. Sweet gig. It means you own anything and everything that people will take money for.
Originally Posted by Old_Toot
Try numerically for one.


My first try is 109.
Originally Posted by Hastings
Originally Posted by Whiptail
Originally Posted by BangPop
Originally Posted by Hastings
Originally Posted by dale06
Originally Posted by Clarkm
I made an average of 23% per year for the last 26 years in the stock market.

For 26 years, I have never "timed the market".

In the 2 weeks since Biden was inaugurated, I am up 10%.

Long term, I think the market is going to be ok.


You ought to be well into nine figures net worth by now.
Congrats.

In 20 years at 20% gain every year wouldn't you be close to 40 times your original amount? 23% for 26 years is going take me a little while. I'll be back with it later if I don't get past my ability to cipher.

267.57% if my math is correct.


I calculate 395X. Assuming he didn't spend any of his winnings.

= e ^ (.23 * 26)

Help me here please. Does that mean in 26 years $100 would become $39,500

I assumed $100 original investment at 23% per year for 26 years without withdrawals or taxes paid and the sum was $26,757.xx. In addition, I'll throw the bullchit flag on this being factual investment results.
Originally Posted by Stickfight
Originally Posted by Old_Toot
Try numerically for one.


My first try is 109.



You’d be better served with the here and now concerning population and how that white population is apparently leaning, nationwide. Looking backwards and shooting out the back of the wagon thinking,,,,I wished it was like,,,,,.ain’t helping y’all at all.

The magnificent majority race of the USA. Thanks whitey,

A bit painful for you to admit, I’m sure.

We’ll be around here when the white folks finish putting their own handcuffs on themselves and long after.
After 2 weeks of Biden Presidency, I am up 9.70%.
Originally Posted by Clarkm
After 2 weeks of Biden Presidency, I am up 9.70%.



I am glad for you.

I bought a couple of metal buildings at the end of last month, went to order a couple more today and they are up 8%.
Originally Posted by BangPop
Originally Posted by Hastings
Originally Posted by Whiptail
Originally Posted by BangPop
Originally Posted by Hastings
Originally Posted by dale06
Originally Posted by Clarkm
I made an average of 23% per year for the last 26 years in the stock market.

For 26 years, I have never "timed the market".

In the 2 weeks since Biden was inaugurated, I am up 10%.

Long term, I think the market is going to be ok.


You ought to be well into nine figures net worth by now.
Congrats.

In 20 years at 20% gain every year wouldn't you be close to 40 times your original amount? 23% for 26 years is going take me a little while. I'll be back with it later if I don't get past my ability to cipher.

267.57% if my math is correct.


I calculate 395X. Assuming he didn't spend any of his winnings.

= e ^ (.23 * 26)

Help me here please. Does that mean in 26 years $100 would become $39,500

I assumed $100 original investment at 23% per year for 26 years without withdrawals or taxes paid and the sum was $26,757.xx. In addition, I'll throw the bullchit flag on this being factual investment results.


Yep. Using MoneyChimp compound interest calculator, starting with $10k, someone would have nearly $2.2 million by now, at those returns.

If you started with $1k, and put away $5k a year, at those returns, you’d be well over $6 mil by now.

http://moneychimp.com/calculator/compound_interest_calculator.htm
Originally Posted by denton
OK, there are always predictions of an imminent stock market correction. There is always someone predicting financial doom. Once in a while, one of them is right. To me, it feels like we may be due for just such an event. I wouldn't be surprised to see DJIA lose 30-50%. Stock prices are high, a major part of our workforce is idle, and we've had a record breaking bull market with a major Covid divot in the middle, and all that.

So, suppose that it does happen. Independence Day rolls around, and all the investment and retirement funds in the country are suddenly worth a lot less. People with a major investment component to their income take a serious hit. Wealth nationwide takes a big hit.

What is the political and social fallout?



BTFD (buy the fuggin dip). Don’t pay a lot of attention to the mindless chatter and manufactured hysteria from the MSM. Stay calm, and buy while prices are low and watch your net worth rise as the market comes back. Stocks, real estate etc... at 48 yo, I’m dreaming of a 50% market correction and hyper inflation.

Boomers living on the bare edge with what they’ve saved for retirement should probably look into the reverse mortgages being pushed by 70’s T.V. Stars. If you’re in cash you’re probably about to get fugged.
All I know for sure is I went down 30 or so percent last year in about 6 weeks. Scared the crap out of me. Realized I probably shouldn't be at 90 10 at my age. Reallocated 60 40 so I can sleep better anyway. There is a difference between making it and making it and keeping it.
Originally Posted by Old_Toot
Originally Posted by denton
Dutch.....

Yup. Money supply is up, inflation is running below the Fed's 2% target. But velocity of circulation is way down.

I think my situation is not too unusual. My sister and I sold the family farm, but all the available investment opportunities scare the bejabbers out of me. So it sits in a money market account, slowly being chipped away by inflation because I haven't figured out where I can put it for a safe, reasonable return. I have zero confidence in the current administration in Washington.


The first rule of investing is to not lose what you’ve got.

Old Rothschild stated that few if any ever went broke by taking one percent less but many have gone broke chasing one percent more,

All of that is old saws but true. There’s no need to jump if you’re not sure and it might be wise to wait and see what Biden’s first hundred days yields and there’s a ways to go with that.

Jmo



I'm kind of taking some time out to wait and see. I have most everything on the sidelines right now in money market accounts waiting to see. It did well overall last year but I parked it about a month ago. Gdp usually tracts pretty well with energy production. Biden is doing everything he can to reduce energy production so I think the rest of the economy will follow.

Bb
Originally Posted by mtnsnake
Killing the fossil fuel industry has not got to the stock market yet.


It sure has. I put most eggs into one basket of EV stocks and some green-leaning strong ETFs. They're doing great for me and are just starting.

And, NO, I don't like electric cars or "green" companies, but they are what the next four years will be all about and probably far beyond. Rare earth mining, lithium mining, battery development and production, and to some extent solar power development will bury the fossil fuel business, with just enough oil and natural gas production being allowed to make plastics, etc surviving.

I'm not all that sorry I'm old.


TSLA
NIO
XPEV
ARKK
ARKG
In this movie, fat liberal Michael Moore exposes alternative energy as a fraud.....but he still believes in climate change, so the people have to go.

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