I have a simple mind. I'm not especially good at figuring things out so I just tend not to believe what I'm told.

Have you been told that inflation is coming? Let's count they ways how:

The stock market was at record highs, fueled by massive earnings spurred by Federal spending
Then, the Fed dropped rates even lower, and there were rumors of negative rates
Quantitative Easing to Infinity
Reserve rate to zero (banks can create infinite amount of currency through lending)
Nobody buying Treasuries, so the Fed buys them all, monetizing debt
Bi-partisan Fiscal Stimulus to the Moon
The Government sends you a check
The Fed says it will not hold to its traditional inflation target, seeks more
The Democrats win control of the White House and Congress
Zero rates forever
The Government sends you another check
They say it wasn't big enough
Nearly half the US dollars in existence were created within the last 12 months

The messaging couldn't be louder and more clear if it was on a bull horn in front of your house on Sunday morning.

"Everyone" is getting the message. At least all the cool people are.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (Consumer Spending) pauses early during last year's shutdown, then rockets: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCE
Almost everything is on fire: houses, gold, silver, the NASDAQ, cryptocurrencies, food, building supplies, semiconductors, guns, ammo...
Stonks
Bitcoin explodes
Retail investors want equity securities with 1000:1 P/E ratios rather than cash
Mortgage lending soars
Your wife's cousin's grandma bought Tesla stock for her grand-daughter.

In short: Everyone is shorting the dollar, mostly because they were told to do so.

The US Government desperately needs inflation. Without it, the cost of servicing it's debt will be too high in real terms. Therefore it has both signaled and convinced the world that it will "print" dollars into oblivion to make it happen. What if it doesn't happen? What I mean is, what if it doesn't happen soon enough? What if there is a "short squeeze" on the US dollar and while everyone is waiting for the effect of zillions in Fed liquidity, there is the mother of all margin calls?

There are numerous scenarios where this is possible, but like I wrote, I am simple minded. I don't know to predict what sequence of factors could cause it, but I do know that inflation of:
the currency supply
the stock market
housing prices
bitcoin
gas prices
food prices

will not provide debt relief sufficient to turn bad debts good. The minds at the Fed and Treasury appear to believe that debt deflation is the boogey-man, and not inflation. Their strategy is to reflate and use fiscal stimulus while providing debt relief through inflation. Their track record of creating debt-relieving inflation is poor. If they can't make inflation happen and happen in a way that debt relief happens for other nations, for businesses, and for consumers, the write-off's could destroy currency as fast as they can create it. They've got everyone convinced that they can run the presses to infinity and beyond. The whole market is worried that they'll run them too far, but they don't seem to be concerned that inflation won't even work the way it's hoped. The more the indicators point to deflation, the more radical and extremist the Fed and Treasury get. The expectation of inflation is implicit faith in the Fed to create it.

It will happen, and the Fed will be late reacting to it.

10 years over 1.6, highest rates in a year, at it got there fast.

Our markets started getting hammered two days ago, and Asian markets are down up to 3% tonight.

That's what they said after '08. How are spiking yields or markets getting hammered a sign of inflation? Sounds like a greater demand for dollars vs. bonds or equity.

$75k pickup trucks. $8 fast food combo meals. $3 loaf of bread. $4 bag of chips. What inflation??

$125 bricks of 22LR, $300/1000 primers.

Yep and people are wondering when Inflation is going to Kick In.

I am all for a thriving economy. Bring it on.

$15 minimum wage will more than double everything, Except employmnt, those jobs will go away by at least 25%, probably closer to 40%. Jobs (minimum wage/entry level) replaced by automation.

Real inflation is 5-7 %. The fed has been hinging it.

Related question, I think. My checking account has slowly increased to a point that I am uncomfortable with. What to do with some of it, safely, is the question. miles

MMT is the government can print and use unlimited funds for social programs, etc. To fight inflation (remove money from circulation) the government will raise taxes.

That is the attempt right now. The printing and laundering- err, I mean spending is easy. The tax part is the problem.

The dude that called the housing bubble is also calling MMT the downfall of our system. No one will listen this time either.

You can only get 5 gallons out of a 5 gallon bucket.
Print twice as much currency and it buys half as much food.
Stock naturally go op, but does it track with the real value of the dollar, and the answer is no.
This is a shell game of rape and pillage.

Bought a pistol lately??

Inflation? Massive!

Step back and look at the 10 year treasury yield chart for the last five years we still are at historical lows

Volatility.

One thing holding the government's body, and soul together is, the greenback dollar is still the best of a bad lot.

Inflation is already here and has been here - it just doesn’t make the news.

The Fed wouldn't do something underhanded like removing food and fuel prices from their index......would they?

Find hard commodities that you will need in a year or five and buy them now.

Inflation is already here.

I priced some 2x10s yesterday... almost double.

OSB is triple over the past year.

Steel is up like crazy.

Copper is double (per a friend)... have not checked.

Houses are scarce and high priced.

Small business and farms are under assault and many are folding. Large businesses (DOW JONES et al) are picking up huge bargains as the middle implodes... that is why the market is still hanging on.

Imagine that... the Fed cooking the books.

Buy hamburger ...LOL. What I’d inflation... wow

I could be wrong on this (and am quite sure that I will soon be told so), but it seems to me that one of the major factors that contributes to problems in economics is economic theory.

Inflation is already here. And it’s not because there’s too much money, it’s because there’s no places for people to spend it. You can’t simply can’t remove the majority of services from an economy that’s nearly half services, and not have that money start cavitation.

Right now, the lead time for my feed orders went from a week to nearly a month. The mills can’t keep ingredients in stock. We’re putting together a container of replacement parts and odds and ends from Taiwan, and even there, nothing is in stock, plus transportation is expected to take an additional month.

We decided to remodel the bathroom and kitchen over the winter. Have been calling contractors since August, exactly one came out, and was promptly never heard from again. I’ve been waiting on the electrician for over two months now to rewire the hatchery.

If people don’t start spending money on vacations, movies, concerts and restaurants again, prices will really, REALLY jump.

And there you have it.

Plus interest rates rising in a democratic administration is as certain as gravity , so that'll add to it.

Inflation buster


$3 double-cheesburger/fry bundle at mcdonalds. Right hand side of the menu board, halfway down.
$1 Anysize drink

$4.38 w/Tnsales tax


Same amount of meat that’s on the quarter pounder with cheese combo,same fries, drink
Which is $8.48


Don’t get suckered into the pretty pictures of the combo ‘value’ meals on the left hand menu board, and the brain being trained to go left to right. Go to right side.....advice for life.

My fear is the massive debt that 80% of America carries (10% too poor and 10% too rich) will become the tool by which a Socialist Central Bank will seize assets.

I.e. Economic Collapse and .gov steps in takes over ALL MORTGAGES.

He that holds your mortgage becomes your Master... and you become his indentured servant... or slave (be that word is racist... so I will "Pretty It Up"

Comrad?

Gestapo?

Helper?

It's not like food & fuel are everyday items, wait,what?

They are just luxury items - just like the sages continually preach, "If you think the price is too high, don't buy".

Taco Bell has $1 burritos (meat like filling they claim)

And free Senior Drinks.

They are not permitted to ask age, race or gender... so my puppy gets a free senior drink also.

Smoking good deal... if good health and taste are irrelevant.

Yup seen that other day.

Same thing as $1.79 softshell taco. lol

Gotta work these people

Inflation will not happen if the economy can be opened up. The supply will be able to match the demand and then watch the V-shaped curve skyrocket.

The inflationary effects on price from massive currency printing is muted by the fact that the US Dollar is the world's reserve currency, i.e., the inflationary effect of currency printing is spread out over the entire Western world, so it's much slower in causing price inflation than it would otherwise be. But you cannot do it forever. Eventually nations will start seeking alternatives to a constantly shrinking dollar, and then all those dollars are coming home to the US to bid up the price of everything that's not nailed down.

You need to use a coupon. Any smart Boomer would have an envelope full of them. The real reward is handing the coupons out to the Millennials in line.

I buy 2-3 of the $1 burgers, tear em apart and put all the meatish patties on one bun

The .gov is spending 4.1 trillion per year more than it takes in. Since it doesn't have the money, it borrows it. That means that in the future it will have to pay it back.

Inflation is certain. The question is only when. And how much? A lot.

The .gov wants to buy off the sheeple by doling out a $1400 check to everyone. Well, it's not giving you anything. It's forcing you to borrow $1400 and pay it off in future years with interest (higher taxes and inflation). Meanwhile, unemployed sheeple will stop looking for a job, hurting the economy more. the sheeple will want more freebies when these are done.

Besides, most of the non-existent money they're doling out goes to blue cities that spent more than they could afford, including on pensions for lazy good-for-nothing union thugs.

The cry of the Democrat, "I want more mooch. Gimme more Mooch." They don't understand that they're actually the ones paying for it.

I’m not a boomer and I don’t accept misc handbills from 60 yr old drifter types while I’m in the line for the drive-thru window

LOL

Pig


Long as you give the buns to Waylon. lol


I have to have at least 1/3 of a burger left for Cooper when pulling into the driveway. If not, i squirt some ketchup from a packet into his mouf. He likes “chetchup” (dogs cant say ketchup)

The operative word was "inline"

Arby’s and Bojangles, coupons, yes

'More water in the soup".

It's normal for Subway to issue coupons that cost more that menu. I have shamed them into free cookies several times.

He calls em 'meatish flavored braid tangs w/chetchup", one of his favs.

Exactly right...

The US Dollar is the highest (practical) currency in the world...

FOR NOW.

But people will die of the COVID.

#FreeCouponCarryCovidAndWillKillYou.

...and then there is Bitcoin.

.Gov HATES Bitcoin

Inflation is happening but the actual amount is removed from the government calculated inflation numbers.

You will own nothing.
You will be happy.

There's a price for everything.

economic theory is what is causing all these problems.

So our pulse on the economy is based on prices at the drive-thru?

If you're all seeing inflation already begun, and you're anticipating even more, are you borrowing as much USD as possible? Because if you're right, you'll only owe today's pennies on tomorrow's dollars and any asset you can buy now will be worth a lot more than what you pay for it if you buy now and sell later.

On the other hand, I can't help but think the unanimous opinion that inflation is going to rage is simply a result of obedience to what you've been told. There are a lot of simple-minded explanations in this thread, all of which are repeated from the propaganda.

What are you borrowing money to buy?

Going to happen?

When did it really ever stop longer than a short rescission since WWII?

Who's propaganda, and what do they gain by selling it?

According to modern monetary theory, print and spend inflation can be prevented, if you tax the crap out of the folks. Get ready. It's a real neat little marxist trick.

Inflation percentages is a joke. Govt doesn’t even take into account the price of food goods or any energy products. The two things that affect Americans most!

You’re right but those prices do tend to cycle wildly from time to time.

When the Walmart shelves were pretty much bare a short while back I didn’t notice any great increase in prices, just for example.

They may cycle wildly from time to time, but they have been climbing forever.

Name one thing that most Americans have or use that isn’t highly inflated in price in let’s say the last 10 years.

Houses
Vehicles
Groceries
Cell phones
Utility bills
WiFi
Television,cable,streaming etc
Restaurant Bills
Construction materials
Booze
Tobacco

For gods sake a friggin Big Mac combo at McDonald’s cost almost $10 now!

But inflation is in check?

No argument but have you noticed salaries and the stock market over the same period of time?

You might want to check out Slumlord’s treatise and essays on how cheap McDonalds and Taco Bell are lately.

Dam I thought a Big Mac combo was under 5 bucks.

Some salaries have gone up but not by much and some not at all, and the stock market..... ....half the country doesn’t even know what the stock market is!

So did I ! The other day I picked up 3 of of them and it was $29 and change!

Here's where you can find the truth about inflation. Very interesting.

http://www.thebillionpricesproject.com

I don't see climate change legislation addressed in your factors.

What if inflation doesn't happen?


Bit late for that statement.