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So back at the end of January I ordered a couple of metal buildings for installation here shortly.

Starting to acquire the subordinate build-out. Lights electrical panels, wiring Etc.

Holy smoke, prices are crazy. This is just a friendly piece of advice for you guys, if you're starting to need stuff you might want to pay a whole lot of attention now as opposed to 6 months from now.
I'm thinking about 12 months from now, when the liberal half of the country figures out that Sleepy Joe ain't gonna save them and the COVID money stops coming, the economy is going to tank. Hard! It will make 2008 look like a bump in the road. Then, building will come to a halt and material prices will drop drastically.
Just a guess, though. And I work as a professional meteorologist in my real life, so I'm used to being right in my predictions only 51% of the time. 😊
We were planning to build in June and now don’t know what to do. On one hand I think waiting a bit things may cool off but I also thought that a few months ago. This inflation scares me.
I was getting ready to build last fall. Even had the well and electric done but decided building a house with materials this high made no sense. Bought the neighbors house with 13 more acres, garage, sap house and nicer house than I was going to build and all for $120k less than I was going to pay building. Also, labor is also stupid high. It’s hard to believe this can keep up but inflation is coming. Good luck.
Well, OSB was 10 bucks a sheet, its now 60 bucks.
They log the timber above my house, take it to the mill about 10 miles away, sell it back to me, and its now 60 bucks??
So that is a 600% increase lol.
I'm really glad I built 3 years ago. It took some time to talk the wife into because we had a nice house. In the time she drug her feet osb went from $8 to $13.31, framing labor went from $3.75 a foot to $5.50, and foundation concrete work went from $185/yard to $220.

Our house was about 20% more overall than my bids 6 months earlier. I wouldn't have guessed theu would continue to rise at that rate for 3 more years. We wouldn't have been able to build half of this house had we waited until now.

I feel sorry for young couples trying to get into their first home. A guy that works at the gunshop was telling me how he and his wife are trying to buy but keep getting outbid. I told him about a 4 bed 2 bath rental home I had and showed him a few pics and he begged me to sell it to him and committed me to giving him a shot at it before I list it. I had to tell him I didn't really want to sell it because of all the tax I'd owe. My property tax assessment went up about 35% in one year on it.

I wish I would have kept my other rental homes until now. I just got sick of renters.

Bb
I started remodeling my home in Sept. of '18 and we moved in in March of '20. If we had waited until now to do the work, it would have cost 3 times as much. I was planning on building a carport this summer, but because of lumber prices, that project is on hold.
you will pay more upfront but save a bundle on interest. rates are low
Everything is up now, Fast becoming a third world country.
Where you been tater?
Demand is driving the scarcity and price.

I know of a major building products producer that's doing 1300 full truck loads A DAY of building supplies and has been above 1200 for the last 9+ months.

2020 was primarily demand driven shortages - we're about to get to supply driven shortages here (not building but overall) inventory to sales is at 2012 lows and it would take 687,000 loads of freight right now just to get inventory to pre-covid levels - that doesn't count the INCREASE in demand since Covid.
We saw similar price and supply issues in 2008 ..... it didn't last long.
Originally Posted by Teal
Demand is driving the scarcity and price.

I know of a major building products producer that's doing 1300 full truck loads A DAY of building supplies and has been above 1200 for the last 9+ months.

2020 was primarily demand driven shortages - we're about to get to supply driven shortages here (not building but overall) inventory to sales is at 2012 lows and it would take 687,000 loads of freight right now just to get inventory to pre-covid levels - that doesn't count the INCREASE in demand since Covid.


The left imports all these third world shcitheads and somehow Americans are supposed to be thrilled.
I was in a Menards yesterday nothing short, just high priced.
Loggers are terrified of covid.
Originally Posted by Fireball2
Originally Posted by Teal
Demand is driving the scarcity and price.

I know of a major building products producer that's doing 1300 full truck loads A DAY of building supplies and has been above 1200 for the last 9+ months.

2020 was primarily demand driven shortages - we're about to get to supply driven shortages here (not building but overall) inventory to sales is at 2012 lows and it would take 687,000 loads of freight right now just to get inventory to pre-covid levels - that doesn't count the INCREASE in demand since Covid.


The left imports all these third world shcitheads and somehow Americans are supposed to be thrilled.


I'm not making the connection between the bulding products company I mentioned, volumes and inventory to sales ratios and your comment.
This increase has been rather steady now. I hope all who say it won't last too long are correct, but I am not going to be overly optimistic. I took a hit last season on lumber prices as I kept my labor prices affordable for the farmers and the home owners.
A friend's mother is having a house built. Increase in cost of building supplies just added $30,000 to the cost. I don't know the original cost but probably somewhere around $250,000. So about 10% more or less.
My feeling is this won't last very long. People will do as Randy has done and just wait to build. Of course as long as the government keeps handing out money like they have it to give away, who knows?
I signed a contract for a new house build in January, locking in the price... the builder just ordered trusses. He might break even on the house.
We did the same, locking in the price last July. Just moved in to our new house the past week and last night was our first night in the new home.
I feel bad for the builder as he and his wife are exceptional people... and he took a pretty good hit on this build.
Originally Posted by srwshooter
you will pay more upfront but save a bundle on interest. rates are low


This point occurred to me about a month ago and I did some analysis to better understand the disparity. I looked at a few in demand towns, mostly small towns, to sample their housing prices now and going back to up to 10 years ago. Calculated up the mortgages using the historical average interest rates and home prices and today's average rates and home prices. Compared the total amounts paid over the term of each loan and even with today's lower rates, I found that you're going to pay a good piece more now then you would have say in 2015, 2010, etc. I didn't go further then 2010 so not sure where it might start to level out.

I wonder if things might cool off as companies return remote working employees to the office. I know a few people that really think they'll no longer be geographically tied to a location, because of employment, and are adjusting their lives as a result including purchasing home elsewhere. If companies decide remote working isn't the wave of the future, the tide might start to retreat in many of these highly desired locations and return to major employment centers in the country.
Originally Posted by Jim_Conrad
Loggers are terrified of covid.



The Rona likes hiding behind tree's in the deep woods, it's sneaky like that.
As a forester on the raw material side of things it's been a real interesting year to say the least. I think regionally, we've really suffered blows by losing a paper mill who was a major purchaser of low grade wood in the Northeast region. Not having low grade markets makes it awfully tough to produce sawlogs. Because realistically you can't go onto a woodlot and just cut sawlogs. There's going to be residual tops and debris that you need the low grade markets for in order for the operation to be feasible. Loggers all across the Northeast have been straddled by weak low grade markets the last year which is absolutely no doubt having affects on raw saw logs going into saw mills. As a sawmill; demand for lumber is sky high going out the door, but the log supply coming in is also very low. It's the perfect storm. The prices some of these mills are paying on raw logs is astronomical. They're desperate for wood.
Originally Posted by GuideGun
As a forester on the raw material side of things it's been a real interesting year to say the least. I think regionally, we've really suffered blows by losing a paper mill who was a major purchaser of low grade wood in the Northeast region. Not having low grade markets makes it awfully tough to produce sawlogs. Because realistically you can't go onto a woodlot and just cut sawlogs. There's going to be residual tops and debris that you need the low grade markets for in order for the operation to be feasible. Loggers all across the Northeast have been straddled by weak low grade markets the last year which is absolutely no doubt having affects on raw saw logs going into saw mills. As a sawmill; demand for lumber is sky high going out the door, but the log supply coming in is also very low. It's the perfect storm. The prices some of these mills are paying on raw logs is astronomical. They're desperate for wood.



I think in west most low quality wood goes into chips and OSB. The mills had a hard push filling the log yards going into spring breakup so they wouldn't run out with the high prices. They closed down one of our OSB plant in 2018 and consolidated operations, I'll bet they wish they had kept two plants going now.
Originally Posted by Triggernosis
I'm thinking about 12 months from now, when the liberal half of the country figures out that Sleepy Joe ain't gonna save them and the COVID money stops coming, the economy is going to tank. Hard! It will make 2008 look like a bump in the road. Then, building will come to a halt and material prices will drop drastically.
Just a guess, though. And I work as a professional meteorologist in my real life, so I'm used to being right in my predictions only 51% of the time. 😊


And still hold on to a job ! cry
Time to roll back the Canadian lumber tariffs.
How do you build a house remotely? Seems like the buck stops there.
Lumber tariffs aren't the problem. I'm in Mississippi and timber prices are at an almost all time low around here, yet lumber prices are an all time high. You can't give away timber right now. All the Covid unemployment extensions and stimulus money have mill workers sitting home getting more money than they can make working, labor shortages are the problem.
I was reading a good article about the Ga timber industry and it was claiming the lumber yards getting bought up from canadian companies and pretty much becoming monopolies. The mom and pop smaller ones cant compete. And if you want your timber cut, there just aren't as many within a 100 miles radius of you as there used to be and these big companies and offering the land/timber owner pennies...take it or leave it type of stuff. There just isn't any competition anymore. Land/timber owners are bending over and taking it.
Originally Posted by Jim_Conrad
Loggers are terrified of covid.

LOL!
metal studs might be the way to go now.
Another fugking sky is falling thread. Yippee. Where the fugk is Roy Ballz


LMAO
The latest version of the Bologna Flu originates in persimmon trees. I read it on da innanet. !!! LMAO
Originally Posted by WiFowler
Originally Posted by Triggernosis
I'm thinking about 12 months from now, when the liberal half of the country figures out that Sleepy Joe ain't gonna save them and the COVID money stops coming, the economy is going to tank. Hard! It will make 2008 look like a bump in the road. Then, building will come to a halt and material prices will drop drastically.
Just a guess, though. And I work as a professional meteorologist in my real life, so I'm used to being right in my predictions only 51% of the time. 😊


And still hold on to a job ! cry

Yep, anything less than 51% and a coin flip will suffice - hence, I'd be out of work. ☺️
I live in a town of about 8 or 9 thousand. About a month ago there was a total of six houses on the market. It has gotten a little better but not much. Aren't much for building permits either. Rental rates are sky high compared to income. Around here, nobody is building 300 k spec homes.
Originally Posted by 673
Well, OSB was 10 bucks a sheet, its now 60 bucks.
They log the timber above my house, take it to the mill about 10 miles away, sell it back to me, and its now 60 bucks??
So that is a 600% increase lol.


The price for timber is at an all time low...to the point that it's not worth selling.
Originally Posted by Jim_Conrad
Loggers are terrified of covid.


Yepp... and those fearsome spotted owls.
Originally Posted by 673
Well, OSB was 10 bucks a sheet, its now 60 bucks.
They log the timber above my house, take it to the mill about 10 miles away, sell it back to me, and its now 60 bucks??
So that is a 600% increase lol.



Not the much here but give it a few months, was $28 yesterday
Not sure how too many people can afford to build a house right now.

$60/sheet for OSB? Yikes.
Originally Posted by srwshooter
you will pay more upfront but save a bundle on interest. rates are low


That's true, if you're financing. But, if you're gonna pay cash, now is not the time to build.

Just my .02
A 16ft 2x4 was 18 bucks ffs.
I guess my point is...it isn't tariffs, I can almost see the mill where they make this schitt.
Originally Posted by Oldman3
Originally Posted by srwshooter
you will pay more upfront but save a bundle on interest. rates are low


That's true, if you're financing. But, if you're gonna pay cash, now is not the time to build.

Just my .02


Well before covid hit you could get rates on 30 fixed for 3.75% or a tad lower, that was dang good. I dont think the feds are gonna be in a hurry to get us back up to 5-6% again. Why pay 10-20% more in materials to build a house now to save 1% point. Wait it out.

Friend just bought 10 acres to build on, and contractors have already told him the house he wants would be on avg 80grand more than usual due to material prices now. He's gonna work on paying of his new lot the next couple years and hopefully things will be better for building by then.

I want to build a shop, just not going to right now.
How about bypassing most of the wood, altogether?

https://theperfectblock.com
Originally Posted by Crow hunter
Lumber tariffs aren't the problem. I'm in Mississippi and timber prices are at an almost all time low around here, yet lumber prices are an all time high. You can't give away timber right now. All the Covid unemployment extensions and stimulus money have mill workers sitting home getting more money than they can make working, labor shortages are the problem.


30 or 40 years ago planting timber was thought, at least in some areas, to be a good investment if you had land that you weren't doing anything else with. I'm guessing a lot of Baby Boomers who had moved away from the small farms they or their parents grew up on and had inherited land they didn't have a purpose for decided timber would help supplement their retirement. It stinks that the market conditions have changed so dramatically that the small landowners can't sell their timber even with lumber and wood product prices sky high. The low timber prices predate the COVID pandemic, even with all the housing construction and hurricanes driving demand for wood products the last few years. Clearly that market is not an efficient one.
I see no shortage, just high prices.
Originally Posted by killerv
I was reading a good article about the Ga timber industry and it was claiming the lumber yards getting bought up from canadian companies and pretty much becoming monopolies. The mom and pop smaller ones cant compete. And if you want your timber cut, there just aren't as many within a 100 miles radius of you as there used to be and these big companies and offering the land/timber owner pennies...take it or leave it type of stuff. There just isn't any competition anymore. Land/timber owners are bending over and taking it.


Part of the problem is huge corporations like Home Depot and Lowe's pushed smaller lumber yards out of business, and the huge retailers only want to deal with huge suppliers so they minimize the number of suppliers. Forty years ago Bob's lumber yard would buy from Joe's lumber mill, but Bob was put out of business by Home Depot, and Joe wasn't a blip on Home Depot's radar, so he's out of business, too, along with all the local loggers. Therefore, local families don't have a market for their 100 acres of timber even though lumber prices are unbelievably high.
And if a contractor, being a good businessman, can save on labor costs (time) by buying everything at Home Depot and pass the costs of materials directly to his customer (plus his markup), what's his incentive to have to go to 3 or 4, or more, different businesses to buy various things for his job?

We need to get back to people expecting to do business with local business and give up a little in efficiencies. We're just making it easier for the Marxists/socialists to consolidate everything and starve out those who don't support their "workers utopia" when they get complete control
Anyone needing any 7/16 OSB, give ma a PM.
Originally Posted by Ramblin_Razorback
And if a contractor, being a good businessman, can save on labor costs (time) by buying everything at Home Depot and pass the costs of materials directly to his customer (plus his markup), what's his incentive to have to go to 3 or 4, or more, different businesses to buy various things for his job?

We need to get back to people expecting to do business with local business and give up a little in efficiencies. We're just making it easier for the Marxists/socialists to consolidate everything and starve out those who don't support their "workers utopia" when they get complete control



Big box stores are the last place contractors go to get lumber. Even if it costs more at local store, the time savings and not having to deal with retards at the big box store is worth it. The only things I get at the big box stores anymore are pre-ordered online.
There Cutting alot of pine around here! See logging trucks full all the time.
Some yards kick back to contractors.
Originally Posted by Stormin_Norman
Originally Posted by Ramblin_Razorback
And if a contractor, being a good businessman, can save on labor costs (time) by buying everything at Home Depot and pass the costs of materials directly to his customer (plus his markup), what's his incentive to have to go to 3 or 4, or more, different businesses to buy various things for his job?

We need to get back to people expecting to do business with local business and give up a little in efficiencies. We're just making it easier for the Marxists/socialists to consolidate everything and starve out those who don't support their "workers utopia" when they get complete control



Big box stores are the last place contractors go to get lumber. Even if it costs more at local store, the time savings and not having to deal with retards at the big box store is worth it. The only things I get at the big box stores anymore are pre-ordered online.


Glad you're supporting local businesses. Appears some of the large builders in our area work with Lowe's. Perhaps that is a matter of scale with a builder that may have dozens or even hundreds of houses under construction at once in various locations across a region. Also know that some large builders that build apartment complexes and condo developments use Home Depot as a one-stop supplier. Again, scale probably factors in just like it does for Home Depot and Lowe's suppliers.
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