Might get a little sketchy for those of us in Louisiana. Big boy pants time. Yall be safe

Tropical wave or tropical storm . I didn't see anything about a hurricane ???

Really too early to tell what will happen. When the disturbance crosses into the Gulf, that's when things usually pick up. Should know something by the middle of next week. Never too early to start getting ready, it's that time of the year.

99L is forecast to be a 1 or2. We are starting proeparations for it now.

Time to get prepared. Food, water, gas, etc. Make sure your generator starts.

How close are you to the coast Randy?

Something is up the media's sleeve with this hurricane reporting. According to the only real source of tropical weather reporting (NOAA), this invest has 40% chance of becoming a storm and is located at Columbia. All the MSM is showing animated forecasts of it hitting Lake Charles. Whether it's for ratings or something more sinister, it is irresponsible, at best.

Time to fill up cars, get generator gas, extra food.

Today is the 4 year anniversary of Hurricane Harvey.

This disturbance has everyone's undivided attention down here.

Early this morning there was a low chance of development. By 9 am there was a much greater chance. Satellite imagery shows it's starting to take shape pretty nicely. Where will Jim Cantore set up.

Stay safe Barry !

NOAA is showing 50% chance of turning into a depression within 48 hours. The way it is taking shape, I have it as a depression by tomorrow this time.

Thanks!

The eye of Harvey came right over the ranch here.. 125mph winds.

It was a spooky sound, with the whole sky absolutely roaring deafeningly for hours.

Probably a toss up as to the worst PITA... Hurricane Harvey, or the Blizzard Power Failure.

Don't care for either one...

Seems the last few years Dove season opener has been blown out!

hope not again this year.

Central Zone, 9/1/2021

ya!

GWB

Damn!

I'm waaaay off the coast, about 5-6 miles from the Arkansas line. We usually dont get anything but rain from the storms. However last year, Hurricane Laura was still a Class 1 when the eye went about 15-20 miles west of us.

WAFB is now saying 80% chance of developing once it’s in the Gulf of Mexico.

Here's the REAL data that everyone else's wild-ass guesses are derived from.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php

Go to know your relatively safe.

125! Thats nasty. Been through one with 110 winds. The ground was already wet making the tree damage impressive.
Most of the damage done here is flooding when the storms show up and park. The county to my south got 35 inches in 24hrs in 2018, about 22 at the house.

Good luck, hope it fizzles.

There's modeling that extends beyond NOAAs.

https://spaghettimodels.com/

Two models show it hitting the north-central Gulf Coast as a Cat 3, two show it hitting as a tropical storm and 6 as either a CAT 1 or 2.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/99L_intensity_latest.png

Of course there are, and there is a reason they call them "spaghetti models"...they are all over the place.

The "forecaster" that gets it closest to correct gets recognition and the others just say "Hey...it's a hurricane, you never know what they're gonna do."

We got FIVE FEET of rain from Harvey.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-most-extreme-rain-event-in-u-s-history/

All the models are getting direction now.

They could be wrong... but probably more correct than not.

Good luck guys. Keep your heads down on high ground.


Far enough inland hurricanes are only rain events here.
We are high enough that any issues personally would be biblical,
But hate what mountains draining into valleys does to neighbors.

Lt,
Harvey was epic, remember it well. From 1200 miles away.

And not to belittle the mess it caused,
But I couldnt help but think of what would happen with that amount of water
here.

All that water funneled into a very small amount of the surface area.

1977 we got 1 foot in 24 hours. Close areas got hit pretty good.
Lots of flooded homes, washed out roads...

Johnstown, 30 miles away, had around 40 people killed, a lot of
destruction, steel mills damaged that were never rebuilt.

1 foot.

Can't fathom 5.

Harvey was a bad one all right. Camped over SE Tx. and it just kept raining. Usually storms/hurricanes they keep moving and it can be bad, very bad, but in a few hours, it's over with and you start the clean-up. When it floods in the flat lands, the run-off is slow and it takes days for it to leave and that just compounds the problems. The storm surge is bad enough, but add to that 'feet of rain' and it's a double whammy.

For those that are not familiar, the storm surge is the salt water pushed by the wind, up on the land. It can go for miles inland. Backs up all the streams, rivers, etc. that would normally drain the rain water off. When this happens, there is no where for the rain water to go, so it intensifies the flooding.

A tropical storm or depression can be worse than a cat 1 hurricane if you are in an area that can flood and you are on the rainy side of the storm.
A small hurricane will roll on through pretty quickly but these tropical storms and depressions can be a day or more of heavy rain. This time of year most parts of the south get rain about everyday so the ground is saturated. The Gulf is very warm so about any storm that has a clean shot across it will strengthen a good bit.

Yep, that's what we, up here in the northern part of the state, usually have to worry about. It's usually not the wind, because most of the time it's below hurricane strength, it's the rain. Some times the storm front stalls and you can get a pounding. Other times it speeds up when it hits land. You just never know.

This, Middle TN seems to get a bunch of tropical rain about the 1st every year...and we sure do not need a lot more rain around Waverly.

Now some of the models are showing a Cat 4 at landfall.

NOAA has it as a depression now.

folks that are in areas where hurricanes are possible/probable should always be prepared. Ready to shelter in place, with food and water, batteries and such for at least two weeks. Ready to leave if that is appropriate. Vehicle fuel tank full at all times. Vehicle in good shape, good tires etc. Ready to go.
Most folks are not. They are the ones that cry for help after a day, have no food or water, and can't leave if necessary. It always sucks to be that person.

Around here, it's a well-running generator, plenty of fuel, freeze a lot of water jugs, lay in some food/water, clean out the ice chests, batteries for the lights, and make sure your chainsaw is ready.

Same for us.

I added another portable generator for extra capacity and a little backup.

Most times just the act of trying to prepare will ward off.the storms for a year or so.

Back in the 70's i worked for the school system in Biloxi and enjoyed the challenge of bringing supplies and a to the shelters.

There is something about the wind and deep water in a Chevy step van.

Was fine loaded but when empty got sporty.

Especially by this time in the season.

^^
This.
Some speed up pre landfall, some slow down, some increase intensity and others don’t.

Wind is one thing but surge, rainfall and tornado spin offs are others.

It has been my observation that spaghetti projections whip around like loose fire hoses from day to day such that if you’re under the gun three days out, probably it ain’t you that’s gonna get hit.

Two days out? Time to start paying attention.

JMHO

Hopefully the hospitals are rated for class 5.

Because according to the news that's where everybody is.

Let's see how this changes over time. 11 EDT 26 AUG

INIT 26/1500Z 16.9N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 18.2N 80.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 20.3N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 22.5N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1200Z 24.4N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 29/0000Z 26.1N 88.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 27.7N 90.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 30.5N 92.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1200Z 33.7N 91.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

I have been through a bunch of them working 38 years in the Gulf of Mexico. Even a 2 can tear up a lot near the eye.

They have bumped up the intensity at landfall.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 20.0N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 21.5N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER ISLE OF YOUTH
24H 28/0600Z 23.4N 84.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 25.3N 86.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 27.1N 88.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 28.7N 90.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 30.1N 91.1W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/0600Z 33.0N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0600Z 35.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

Paul, looks like you better 'batten down the hatches'. Latest forecast I saw had it going in about Morgan City and that's gonna put you right in the bullseye for the bad winds and rain. Do you think the levees are gonna hold? Will the pumps work?

If the current forecast are right, by the time the center gets this far north, it will be way east of us. Looks like gust to maybe 50 and a little rain is all we'll get.

Keep your head down.

Good luck, hope it fizzles.

I'm not afraid of them however I have great respect for potential damage they can bring.

Make damn sure the insurance is up to date.

The house that I am in didn't flood during Katrina. It is one of 4 in the neighborhood that did not. The recent levee upgrade cut my flood insurance rate in half. I think I am reasonably well protected from flooding. I am sitting on ready to evacuate. Also well prepared to hunker down.

Let's see how this changes over time. 11 EDT 26 AUG

INIT 26/1500Z 16.9N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 18.2N 80.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 20.3N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 22.5N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1200Z 24.4N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 29/0000Z 26.1N 88.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 27.7N 90.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 30.5N 92.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1200Z 33.7N 91.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

INIT 27/0900Z 20.0N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 21.5N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER ISLE OF YOUTH
24H 28/0600Z 23.4N 84.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 25.3N 86.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 27.1N 88.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 28.7N 90.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 30.1N 91.1W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/0600Z 33.0N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0600Z 35.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

INIT 27/1500Z 20.7N 82.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 22.2N 83.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WESTERN CUBA
24H 28/1200Z 24.0N 85.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 29/0000Z 25.9N 87.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 27.6N 89.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 29.0N 90.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 30.3N 91.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1200Z 33.3N 90.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1200Z 35.2N 87.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW


NOAA is several steps behind in their intensity forecast and have been from the onset.

One year ago today Laura hit SW LA. Lake Charles had 2 hours of 150 mph wind, the destruction was epic, no power for 3 weeks and a month later Delta. Much of LC is still ruins, Google “Capital One building pics”, I’m told it is not salvageable and will be imploded. Since Calcasieu Parish didn’t vote for our Democrat governor or Bidet, outside help has been almost non-existent.

NOAAs forecasting is lagging with this one just like it did with Laura and Michael. I think this one will make Cat 5. Laura was nasty. It peeled bricks off houses. I don't know why it didn't get much press.

I pulled and cut a big dead oak a couple weeks ago that was leaning over my camp. Was all my truck winch could hold to keep it off the roof. Glad it's down before this storm rolls in. Hurricane Laura put down 5 trees all around my house, but I was very fortunate on how they fell.

Better hunker down!!!

I'll make my final decision in the morning. Hunker down or haul ass.

NOAA is still chasing its tail on this one.

INIT 26/1500Z 16.9N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 18.2N 80.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 20.3N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 22.5N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1200Z 24.4N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 29/0000Z 26.1N 88.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 27.7N 90.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 30.5N 92.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1200Z 33.7N 91.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

INIT 27/0900Z 20.0N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 21.5N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER ISLE OF YOUTH
24H 28/0600Z 23.4N 84.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 25.3N 86.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 27.1N 88.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 28.7N 90.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 30.1N 91.1W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/0600Z 33.0N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0600Z 35.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

INIT 27/1500Z 20.7N 82.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 22.2N 83.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WESTERN CUBA
24H 28/1200Z 24.0N 85.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 29/0000Z 25.9N 87.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 27.6N 89.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 29.0N 90.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 30.3N 91.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1200Z 33.3N 90.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1200Z 35.2N 87.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW




INIT 27/2100Z 22.1N 83.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 23.5N 84.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 25.3N 86.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 27.1N 89.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 30.0N 91.3W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 31.5N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1800Z 34.4N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1800Z 36.0N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LO

Looking like Cocodrie, Dulac, and Houma will endure the brunt of the storm. Lot of folks in the Houma area.

We are just far enough west at this point to be ok, maybe, as long as it does not turn west at all.

You cutting it mighty thin on the 'being ok' part.

Hate to be buying plywood with these prices today

How all these coonasses sposed to quarantine and lock down wit a hurrycane coming?

Yes he is but Mike is no stranger to hurricanes,,just hope it doesn’t stall and ease westward. Good luck, Mike.

Just got back from the fish camp, had to run back down and get the boat and tie everything down. The camp is north of Morgan City about 22 miles as the crow flies and the eye of Ida as currently projected will go right over us.
It’s guessed to hit Morgan City as a category 3-4 with a 10-14’ surge depending on who you listen to.

There’s an Ole Boy that lives by himself right across from me and right on the Lake facing south who insists on staying. He’s had a stroke and is handicapped.Tried to get him to load up and come north with me but he wouldn’t come. Told me that he’s got 3 cases of Miller Lite iced down and he wasn’t worried. I’ll be checking on him via cell phone.

Traffic on interstate 10 is a mofo westbound.

Hope the fellow on the lake makes it ok.

Think you'll be far enough north to be ok?

I wouldn't like a hurricane....but I think I would like to watch one make its way to shore.

Good point, maybe chong flu blow your way.

I wouldn't be breathing easy.

Is Biden gonna blow the levy like Bush did?

It's actually quite boring...intense, but boring. I've stayed through seven now and it seems like they will never end. It's the aftermath that separates the men from the boys.

True story, I road out Katrina with my brother n law on a shrimpboat out of chalmette lousianna. When we got to shore in chalmette, it was about 3/4 gone. He quit shrimping and started driving trucks and became a drug addict.

This was about a year after I retired from the military

What a F-N pusta !

We’ll have to see. There’s lots of area for the surge to dissipate before hitting me and if it does slam Morgan City the seawall will take the brunt. All the trees close to me are big live oaks and big 2nd growth cypress, like 3’ and larger at the stump, and both weather the winds well.

You gotta know these things will happen and know it before you drive the first nail or spend the first $ enjoying these beautiful places.

I’m really worried about that Ole Boy and he’s not sitting on pilings. I left him the key to my camp if he’s hammered too hard.

The only other folks staying and it’s quite a few, are up high on pilings and,,,,,they’re preparing and planning their ‘Hurricane Parties ‘, wouldn’t you know.

You folks watch out for those tornadoes spinning off. I’m thinking that you are about to get real busy being a first responder.

JL, for some reason a picture of Forrest Gump and Lt. Dan riding that storm out comes to mind !


Grins

My Brother N Law is dumber than Forrest Gump and I didn’t have an axe to grind with God. He didn’t sell da boat, just left it.

11:00pm Eastern time update has it making landfall another 20 or so miles to the east of the previous forecast and heading more northerly as opposed to NW.

At least I will sleep well tonight. Will see what tomorrow brings.

Its already washing up the floating [bleep] into Texas again

It’s amazing how quickly a group of people can stop sweating COVID.

LOL

Coonasses dont really give narry a [bleep] about either the kung flu, blm, hurricanes. Its the Democrats in new orleans that have issues. A coonass is a republican. The only thing a coonass is worried about is the game warden…. and if they are kin you can scratch that off the list too.

Does it need a new home? Im feeling generous suddenly….

Dang!

Here's wishing you luck.

Mike, if the storm goes in around Golden Meadow, that will help you, but you still better keep an eye on it.

Paul, looks like you're in the bullseye. Have you made up your mind to ride it out or leave?

I’ve only experienced them as weak tropical storms after they came inland.

The first thing different as you get into the outskirts is the steady breeze that doesn’t quit, like what you would get from an electric fan but everywhere. It feels distinct and ominous, heralding the approach of the storm. What you are experiencing is the outer edge of the humongous mass of air rotating around the eye. Air has mass and momentum to a degree most folks don’t realize.

Up above 100% overcast with the whole sky moving in unison, if you can see far enough you can make out the sky is moving in an arc relative to wherever the eye is The rain is heavy and is the warmest rain you ever felt.

All that air that rose in the hurricane has to come down, an it does, beyond the edges of the storm, becoming warm and dry as it descends with a chinook effect, if East Texas is getting hammered San Antonio can be unusually hot and dry.

One time there was a tropical storm passing to the west, it was clear and sunny where I was but on the western horizon you could see a mass of clouds all in motion. Basically, if you’ve seen the satellite images of a storm rotating around an eye, from the ground it looks like you would expect it to.

To add to what Birdie said. There is an eerie feeling that cant be described. Birds disappear, cattle will stop feeding and herd up at the barn or in the woods, and all this a before the storms hits, a day or two earlier. The sky takes on a strange glow, before the complete cloud cover.

It's different!

My sister in N. O. thought that this one was being underestimated when I spoke with her yesterday morning. It looks like you and she were closer to the mark than the "experts." My cousin the family bugout planner goofed, though. On Thursday she booked rooms in Houston. She probably had 4 other backup plans by yesterday afternoon.

The worst one for me came through at night. My first wife kept waking me up, she was very scared. My neighbors 600 ft green house was wrapped around the back of our house and just raising hell flapping and popping in the rain and wind.

I thought that was going to be a good thing but it made a kind of funnel, flooded the dining room and kitchen flooring, water running under one door.

Beer helps.

Maybe some HCQ blowing in from Afreeka.

Lol.

My neighbor across the way from me here at home is down on Key West at his rental properties texted me saying it getting somewhat sporty there .

I would suggest HAUL ASS!!

Dang. I was kinda hoping it would miss everything BUT your "fish camp "

Riding out…..is akin to the same IQ level of this forum!! That [bleep] got lots folks kilt in 1969!!

Yep.

If there’s any positive news in this thing it might be that the good people of the Lake Charles area are able to breathe a bit easier for now.
A year ago yesterday Laura hit them.

Thanks for the well wishes.

🤣

Watching the Weather Underground Channel they’re showing live viewing of various sections of interstate 10 across Louisiana.

It’s a parking lot.

New Orleans Mayor just made an appearance saying that “there’s no time left to issue an emergency evacuation order”

The Amazing Latoya must have been on vacation the past few days.

At least Ray Ray Nagin told folks to gtfo and led the way two days earlier than his announcement.

Who in the fugk needs an emergency evacuation order to know there's a storm headed to Louisiana?

Lots of LA tags piling in here yesterday. Went to Home Depot earlier for a few things. La tags everywhere. They weren't exactly fighting over the generators yet, but it was gettin' sporty.

This thing could just get real ugly with all the energy pouring into it in such a short time. You folks hang tough down there! I worked Katrina out of Gulfport,MS. I would not wish to ride one of those boogers out unless I was in my own design concrete and steel home!

Gas in our small town jumped $.20 in day.

It’s hurricane season. 🤣😂

Two kinda folks.

Those that are hard headed. They ain’t leaving.

Those that gotta be told to leave. They are on i-10 stuck in traffic right now with g-tank on 1/8 full.

People with Toot's IQ?

I believe that Governor Edwards is trying to liase with the National Guard to maybe run fuel trucks where they can along the Interstates.

I believe Texas did that for their people who were evacuating north a few years back.

I agree with Flave! Who needs an order to realize a hurricane is heading your way and you need to evacuate in many areas!

My youngest is on a tug in the Mississippi River now, just below Néw Orleans. They were in Port Fourchon last night. My wife is climbing the walls already

You don't run from wind. You run from water. Unfortunately, the wrong people do, and don't, evacuate. It is especially bad in areas that haven't had a bad storm for many years and are populated by inexperienced people.

When one finally hits Houston, it is going to be a CF of epic preportions.

Sounds like they're heading as far up the Mississippi as they can. They'll be fine because that boat should float really well. Just show her the video of that tug going under a bridge with the river at flood stage several years ago in either Mississippi or Alabama.

Well there was Harvey 4 years ago.

Harvey hit just north of here in Rockport and Port A, they just got the rain up there.

Correct. With all the trees and ancient infrastructure, Houston is going to be a nightmare.

Ida make landfall yet?

Yes, and Harvey was about the maximum possible hurricane property damage for Houston due to geography. Most of the Houston area is over 40 miles inland with a bunch of trees to take energy out of the hurricane between Freeport/Galveston and the southern suburbs like Pearland.

Baytown, La Porte, and Channelview are a different story. If a hurricane came up through Galveston Bay virtually unobstructed, those areas and others on the east side would be in serious trouble. I don't remember seeing any hurricane paths where one abruptly turned 90 degrees immediately when it got to shore - that very unlikely 90 degree turn into downtown Houston after threading the needle up Galveston Bay would be the only way for more property damage than Harvey brought.

The damage Beeville and Three Rivers got from Harvey would be a good indicator of the damage of a typical "direct hit" on the Houston area. In SE TX, Silsbee and Evadale are situated similarly to the coast as most of the Houston area is.

I was in Houston for both Ike and Harvey and saw firsthand how much energy Ike lost between the coast and I-10, and it was still. hurricane force when the eye went over my head. That energy dissipates quickly unless you have only grass between the shore and you (e.g., Lake Charles).

Paul, we expect pictures of you wearing your helmet and spandex riding into the face of this storm.

Nut up stud !

LOL

🦫

PS

Wishing all of you in LA safety and a big nothing burger tomorrow.

Houston almost got it with Rita. Wind was still 117mph at Livingston, with is far inland from Houston.

The democrats/sheeple.

Andrew was a Cat 1, when it got to St. Francisville, La., which is above Baton Rouge, and it sank a tug or two. The ferry operator saw the tugs go down and rescued the fellows. I dont remember if they found them all or not.

Hope they get out of harms way.

I believe it was Captain Bennett on the ferry.

The relatives in N.O. decided to ride it out there. Collectively, they have hundreds of years of experience figuring this stuff out. The decision was based on probable impact area and flood and power considerations. Many areas do not flood despite a lot of rainfall and many flooded after Katrina only because of a levee break, which has since been rectified by massive rebuilding and fortification of levees. The power grid in N.O. was totally rebuilt after Katrina, and it is better than most places. The subsurface drainage situation remains sketchy, because it was not rebuilt after Katrina because it was not the problem then. We shall see.

I know that my good friend in Baton Rouge remains very concerned.

No…. Cajuns have a wealth of knowledge. Transplants are dumb as hammers. And no cajun lives in New Orleans. Pretenders do.

I never knew any of the ferry crew by name, but I was on it enough that I recognized them all.

The new landing was named in his honor and for his service. The new landing will be greatly expanded to accommodate the now daily tour and cruise line boats that arrive there. Folks come from up and from down the river and typically return to their point of origin via tour busses which are a common daily sight up and down Hwy 61 and in town.

We evacuated. We are at the camp now. I have the camper lashed to the pole barn legs with industrial ratchet straps. We'll finish buttoning it up in the morning. Then head further east yet to my daughter's house. The camp should see 50-60 mph winds. Zeta hit it with more than that last year.

All that has changed a lot, since I moved away in '08. They were still running the ferry back then and they had stopped the Miss. Queen and Delta Queen from running cruises. I've been across the new bridge a few times, but didn't know about the cruise's or tour busses. When the boats cruises were operating up and down the river, people use to walk from the landing, up the hill to town, to visit the shops and see the sights.

The visitors are bused all over now. Town, shops, plantations, restaurants, etc.

It’s run the property values up quite noticeably here.

Morgan City now projected to be hit with 140-150 mph winds.

New Orleans projected with 15-18” of rainfall.

ETA:
Should bump up Oil prices a bit with many offshore operators shut in .

Paul

Glad to hear you're out and I hope everything comes thru ok.

This thing is going to do catastrophic damage. My neighborhood will see 100 mph gusts. When I evacuated yesterday people had moved their cars, campers and trailer boats to the shoulder of highway 90 where it goes through the marsh in eastern LA. Those will be inundated with water. They will probably be scattered all over the road making return via that route impossible.

I see no way that my house doesn't lose power. I emptied all the crap that could go bad out of the fridge. I hate this waiting game. Following Katrina I returned to see 50 foot shrimp boats on the road going to my house. My house was scattered all over several city blocks. I love the Gulf Coast, but this crap gets old.

Good luck. It really sucks when you get it. I'm watching it from the western edge. The only small consolation I can offer is that it's easier on a veteran than it is a rookie.

Keep the faith. NOAA is predicting the surge to be about 10' less than Katrina's. I realize that may not matter, but it might.

Live coverage at WVUE

i know the feeling. Good luck Paul.

Good luck to all our Louisiana and outlying members as this blow travels north. FIL lost his home in Hurricane Beulah, 1967. Everything gone, down to the foundation.

My fishing buddies in Port Fourchon think they’ll take a direct hit.

Starting to get gusty in the Kenner area. Some without power already. Hold on to your hat!

Katrina did several billions of $ in improvements to our state. Maybe we can get about 30 MPH more wind and 10 feet more water this time to finish the job. A bunch of our citizens left and got bussed to Texas where they ended up in jail and never came back.

I remember that storm we lived in Harlingen I was 4

WTF ?

If you can't keep up, stick to the covid fear mongering.

😉

Here at home the birds are fighting each other trying to get to the feeders that I have out for them and the deer are already in the back yard eating the corn.

This same thing happened before Hurricane Gustave hit.

The animals know something’ Up.

Like COVTARDs and schit paper.

LOL

Only the birds know what they’re doing.

I went to Baton Rouge yesterday and IH 10 was stopped mostly and bumper to bumper from the Texas Border to BR. Over 150 miles....took me 5 hours to get to Slaughter and 8 pit stops and a restaurant).

I went back through Alexandria and Jasper.

Side note...never saw or knew that much sugar cane was grown there!

Yep. Noticed the neighbors cows are staying around the barn instead of out in the pasture. Definite decline in number of birds this morning. Crows were about the only thing seen flying.

I'm nowhere near the storm, its mostly sunny with a breeze. Humidity is high.

Did you stay?

Just rain bands moving through here from time to time then the sun comes out.

That looks to be the case. I hope they have hurricane proofed the LNG facility.

We are here in River Ridge, 60mph gusts

We could use some rain here in So Cal...

Randy, you and Joe stay safe. Got you two in my prayers for the Good Lord to watch over you and your loved ones.

What kind of winds are forecast there, and what time do they anticipate max winds?

Alan, thanks for the report. You, your lovely wife, and you little one stay safe my friend. Already got prayers for the Good Lord to watch over you and your loved ones.

Will be watching this closely. Peace be with you brother. and God Bless.

Saying 110mph over a number of hours

155mph just now and is close to landfall.


Not good for working people, retired, and their families who pay taxes down their.



Bank on Joey and congess rolling out a MASSIVE relief package way above and beyond Katrina I bet.
Targeted specifically at welfare as a way of life types in many ways.


Dem welfare groids and welfare white trash types gonna parrrrrrrtay with 10k unca suga credit cards when they get em...
Then we can hear about all the nation wide fraud with them just like the Katrina ones....

You guys stay there in LA.

+1

The wind gauge broke atGrand Isle at 159 mph. The police chief, Resweber is there and reporting live.

Said he had about 15 folks there with him in the shelter. The live cam now has surge water up to the lenses.

Ida’s pressure has dropped from 985 down to 933 millibars.

That’s a bitch for sure.

Now down to 930 mb.

159mph is a cat 5

Straw poll on renaming Grand isle. I vote for the shallow spot.

She’ll still be there and will come back stronger than before.

The Chandeleur Islands on the east side as is all of Saint Bernard Parish.are taking a beating right now.

Apparently it just made the cut for Cat 5.

Live cam showing considerable flooding in LaPlace and the rainfall hasn’t kicked into high gear yet .

Toot, shouldn't you be passing out masks and hand sanitizer in a shelter instead of posting?!?!?!?

#frontlinefishcamphero

Cat 4

Yep.
Now saying it broke at 148 mph and not 159 mph.

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

Storm like winds according to the news.

We could use some rain here in So Cal...

6’ of water over Hwy 1 in lower Jefferson Parish.

Is that slowing down your passing out of masks?????

🤣

Toot, our man on the ground!

lol

Soon to be our man in the ground...

When they built the flood protection system around NOLA and the surrounding area, that caused all of the water to funnel into the western part of Lake P and into LaPlace. 20 MPH east winds for a day or so will put water on highway 51.

High and dry here, GRIZZ and no fires.

How many masks have you handed out???

#frontlinefishcamphero

Slowed down from 14 mph down to 11 mph forward speed.

Not good at all and still at 140 mph intensity.

Stay safe, my friend.

#coonassesbecrazy

Line crews are headed south. Saw two big lines on the interstate.

Heh !

Bitch ain’t takin my double wide!

That’s quite a pic, Dave.

They're staged here too, just across the Sabine River.

Yessir, we are.

Entergy claims to have 16,000 line crew members on standby. Got a text from them.

Son texted just a bit ago and said the highest gust they have seen on the tug was 114 and it was raining hard. I believe , but not 100% certain that they are just south of New Orleans

It’s good y’all can communicate with him. Live cams are showing the river as being pretty rough.

EarthCam Live: Hurricane Ida - Bourbon Street, New Orleans
YouTube channel: EarthCam
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ziciboPx7w&ab_channel=EarthCam

Live video feed from New Orleans.

Just got a report from my neighbor. Power is still on, roofs look intact, no trees down and no flooding. I have seen some Facebook live feeds that have been damn impressive. You'll end up seeing some of them when they come out on You Tube and the like.

WVUE and WWL are still running their on-air broadcasts online. I didn't check the others. My sister still has power in Lakeview. She said it was a bit breezy.

I got off my platform yesterday and drove out of there yesterday. It was crazy on the highway yesterday. Flew in over Fourchon and Grand Isle. Landed in Houma. Drove through LaPlace yesterday to get to I55. Weather was normal yesterday.
Saw a lot of families yesterday just hanging out in the rest areas and.parking lots. At least they won't drown.

We could use some rain here in So Cal...

We heard you the first two times you said the same thing. You can go to Louisiana and collect all you want or hope for a hurricane or tsunami to hit your area.

If the initial reports are true, the backup emergency generators failed to start at the Thibodeaux, Louisiana main hospital. Posing serious problems in the ICU.

I have never been to Louisiana and I'm not being a smart ass, but do a lot of people there live in areas at or below sea level or the high tide line?

Few places are below sea level. To get any appreciable gains in elevation, you have to get above I-10. Unfortunately, since the various industries in the area have a maritime nexus, they all located well south of I-10. People need to live reasonably close to where they work.

Ah yes, I have engineered on tugs built in Morgan City LA. Oil terminals...oh schidt, fuel prices going up again?

With the Gulf of Mexico pretty much shut in presently, we’ll probably see a bump up in prices if past is prologue to go by.

Delta resident to his neighbor, "If IDA known...IDA bought a house on stilts".

Oh lort!

Dey dun shut down the local DG.

I ain’t even dove my Harri-ma-cane shopping yet.

Just keep doing your part by handing out masks and preaching the Fauci gospel.

#fishcampfrontlinehero

I don’t miss getting a rig ready for hurricanes.

Sounds fun, we’ll go party in the motel for a couple days.

Fug that.

Pull outta the hole. Run in with storm packer. Lay down pipe outta the Derrick. Nipple stack down. Put on storm cap. Skid in.
Chain down everything you can. Weld down the rest.


Around 2009 or 10.

We were moving the rig. Hurricane formed.

This was in late November or early December.

Strange for a hurricane. No one expected it to do anything

We were in processes of towing to a new field / block for a other operator.

Finally decided once we got in their field to jackup.
Never got a 100% preload. About 30’ air gap. Had to go.

Went to Lafayette.

We they flew back out to start up rig...



Like to lost it.

Leg settled.

Twisted port leg. Never was right. Couldn’t keep slide shoes in guides. Rip em out.

Neat pic Dave.

The media, therefore most people, focus on the nearest high-population cities during a hurricane. They will never understand the real damage and remediation involved in storms of this magnitude. It will be almost a year before things effected by the worst of this storm are restored, but in two days it will be old news.

Except for the Democrats effected. That is forever.

"One of the strongest hurricanes to hit anywhere in Louisiana since at least the 1850s.”


- Louisana Governor John Bel Edwards, Democrat.

My neighbor just gave me an update. Power went out about 2 hours ago. A few trees and limbs down in the neighborhood. No flooding and no apparent damage to houses. I have heard from some of my friends down the bayou. Bad. Really fugging bad.

Where’s dusty with the updates?

Folks in grand isle haven’t been heard from in hours....

Entergy reporting catastrophic power failure in Orleans Parish.

Jim cantore running around in the dark with his batting helmet on.

That's good news for you. Anything but flooding is just an inconvenience. (If you are insured.)

We have a rig on board. They couldn't get a storm packer to set. they pulled out of the hole and have the derrick full of stands of pipe. Squalls coming through and it got too rough to lay down pipe. When I left the pipe was tied back in the derrick. I expect some of it won't be there when we return. Ida came right by. The good news is our generator is still running. I have called a few times and the answering machine is picking up.

Tsunami would be nice... Might wash away a few lib tards... Any water up in Cheyenne?

"You never know who you're talking to" is an important life lesson.

Sob.

The good news with this storm is that the surge is not extreme and there really isn't much rain. A foot, or so, of rain is not unusual for this region at any given time. The bad news is the wind. Again, that's not to make light of this storm. People will be damaged in ways they could never have imagined. Every one of them is different. A few miles east or west is the difference between total devastation and a PITA.

Never know who’s watching you either...

Amen.

How is this aging?

Couldn't say but over in Biloxi they have water over the east bound lane of HWY.90 from Hancock county to Longbeach.

In Gulfport the southern land is under water to the Hard Rock casino in Biloxi.

Later tonight they are expecting the rain bands to shift east and all 3 counties in MS as well as Alabama coast is up for some major rain and high tide is between 4 and 5 in the morning.

The rivers that empty on the MS coast are going to be at least 5 to 7 ft. above flood stage.

What a night.

Disaster.


Literally !!

Can’t post the video.....

Jim Cantinorre got a batting helmet on. Power co guy cutting cartwheels behind him. 😂🤣😂🤣

Was bad for lots of people.In my area being on the left side of storm wasn't bad gusty winds and not much rain.Hurricane Delta last year was worse for us.

Jim doing work

Haha.

Ol Jim Cachitorre.


If DustyOne one was real, he’d be Jim. 😂🤪

Hope all the out of state line workers brought their vaccination card.

No contact from family and friends in Lakeview, Covington, Uptown or Baton Rouge. A friend in Slidell has cell coverage. I was able to log into a server on Poydras Street, which surprised the heck out of me. The facility may be on emergency power for now.

According to WX channel. No power in Orleans parish. Entergy lost transmission lines.

Entergy had a catastrophic power failure last night.

I just got a text from a friend in Lakeview who sent a picture of the water outside her house. She said that she lost some roofing shingles and the storm literally peeled the paint off the house and that every window and door leaked. The house had been rebuilt after Katrina. Anyway, she was OK with the outcome because it could have been a lot worse.

Cheyenne, Hoping your family and friends are doing ok.

Hoping all made it thru ok.

Only heard on the news of 1 death.

Tree fell on someone?

My neighbors are out doing damage assessment right now. I wouldn't be surprised to find out the aluminum carport that is attached to my house got destroyed. I keep my boat under it, but brought my boat with me.

Best of luck to all ya'll.

I have a suspicion that we are going to learn of a number of deaths of people that stayed behind to protect their property. Daylight always brings the grim reminder of the destructive force of storms.

My house appears to be unscathed. Curfew until tomorrow. I'll wait until power is restored and head back in. I am still trying to get in touch with several friends down the bayou that stayed in their houses in vulnerable areas.

Lmao.

I’ll bet there’s boudin and saltine crackers spread for 300 miles around there.

That melon bounced off the concrete.

The condom is slipping off the reporter's toy.

Good news for you Paul it got rough down your way.

I am very worried about some of my friends down in the commercial fishing communities. Many stayed with their boats.

My son just sent me a picture of the wind speed gauge on their ATB. It showed winds sustained at 114 and gusts to 150 before it broke. He was in Norco. Said at least 6 tugs near him sank but they were river boats. Thankfully no one was lost there. One of his buddies was offshore on a drilling ship and was scared [bleep]. They suffered severe damage and were unsure if they were going to make it.

Looks like New Orleans survived any major flooding, levees held, pumps worked. I know that disappoints a few members here.

Power restoration will take a while, hearing a lot of main transmission lines are down.

It is bad but could have been far worse.

LaToya is running a pretty good press conference right now. This is a totally different scene than post-Katrina. I can see that all of the local governments in the area have learned a lot over the last 16 years. I am gradually getting word on friends and family, and everyone appears to be in good shape although they all have sustained damage and know that power will be out for a while. I think the worst places are going to be the places that Paul is worried about, and the coastal areas from which there are still no reports. LaPlace also had a lot of people posting on Twitter asking for rescues last night.

Thanks to everyone for their well wishes.

We could use some rain here in No NV.

Things are getting a bit sporty around gas stations with some gun play and a shooting in Livingston Parish.

Just imagine what folks would be like and resort to if, say, the nationwide electrical power grid shutdown for 2 weeks.

Sister lives in Slidell and had sand bags around her front door.

No water got in the house but the house on the East side had a tree fall over.

Clipped her house and crushed her car as well as her son in laws work truck.

But everyone is ok.

That’s the important thing.
The rest can be repaired or replaced.

Leesville Louisiana just above Grand Isle has reported they had 153 mph winds.
That’s supposedly the highest verified so far.

Pictures in the news of the destruction in various direct hit areas are a sad sight.

Entergy has a team of 20,000 folks now in Louisiana working to reestablish electrical power .

Folks, the commercial fishing communities were obliterated. So many of my friends lost everything. My heart truly breaks for them.

I went back to the house today. The carport is a total loss. No big deal. I took some neighbors some gas and ice, cleaned out the fridge then came back to the camp.

You may have seen the highway 26 collapse on the news. That was about a mile from my daughter's house. By her best timeline estimate, she had driven across where it collapsed about 30 minutes prior.

I am feeling very fortunate.

Hopefully those folks can get the aid they need to rebuild.

"He knew too what it was to live through a hurricane with the other people of the island and the bond that the hurricane made between all people who had been through it. He also knew that hurricanes could be so bad that nothing could live through them."
Ernest Hemingway.