Jeff, zillow's buy model was terrible. That's why they're in the crunch they are. They were trying to use CA style algorithms to make buy decisions from the Ivory Tower. That doesn't work everywhere, IMHO.
Yes, that's what they are saying, good story, probably true.
But I think they'd have their finger on the pulse of the market better than any of us and they are dumping 7,000 houses, so there is that.
You gotta figure they are looking out for themselves.
The money invested in those homes isn't theirs, it's investor money, it's hedgefund money.
If the market takes a big downward swing in the next 6 to 8 months they'll come out looking like heros for dumping the inventory now.
It'll be as if they predicted the fall and saved their investors a ton of cash.
Time will tell..
I think they were also trying to run rehabs from the Ivory Tower, which you and I both know is fool's ploy.
Just got this email from the Dade Real Estate Investor's Association. This guy is a well known investor and real estate mentor in the area.
He has a closer finger on the pulse and supports what I was saying above.
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Zillow®, I Hate to Say I Told You so, But I Did…
I have been receiving emails and phone calls about the recent financial disclosures that Zillow® has made public. These investors are thinking that the market is suddenly dying and Zillow’s® financial problems are indicative of the beginning of a market collapse.
I think it was late 2018 or 2019 when investors started contacting me about the next great obstacle to doing wholesale deals. It went like this, “Now Zillow® is buying homes and there will be no deals left!” I mostly brushed it off as an excuse to not be making offers and I still know I was right.
Blackstone had been buying properties for years and had been successful so why not Zillow®?
But the whole encounter did peak my interest and since Zillow® is a public company it was easy to deep dive into what they were doing and how it was working. At that time, they had a very successful business model of supplying data to the public and charging for advertising.
When I did my monthly presentations at DREIA I started to mention how this Mega Giant had diversified into mortgages, rentals and all sorts of additional income sources to offer to people who bought their acquisitions.
As I understood their new business model, they would buy properties either listed or from investors, rehab them and rent or resell them. This model wasn’t new, I first saw it in 2008 – 2009 when national lenders were foreclosing on so many SFH’s that they decided to start rehabbing them and retailing these properties.
If you are curious why the lenders’ business model changed, it was probably because they saw the national statistic that the Fed publishes saying that investors buy homes and resell at an average profit of $49,000+ (in 2008 - 2009).
Of course, these resale figures don’t include the costs to carry the properties, do the rehabs and resell them! The result was the national banks were in and out of the rehab game in about one year and licking their wounds from countless losses on most of the properties. The banks learned their lesson and very, very rarely get involved these days in fixing any of their foreclosures.
Every Quarter when Zillow® reported their earnings, I would deep dive into their SEC Disclosure to see where they were making or losing money. The first thing I noticed was while other iBuyers raised private capital to fund their purchases, Zillow® borrowed their funding.
At the year-end, I believe it was 2019, I showed that each property (SFH) that they rehabbed and sold amounted to a LOSS of $56,000 – that’s for EACH property! The combination of over-paying for properties, poor and expensive rehabs, and the cost to carry the properties is what killed their profit margin. I just heard that they took a $302 million write-off which may have included other issues. In summary, forget about iBuyers and hedge funds being your competition.
I blame the management for getting into the investor mindset and being guided by someone who didn’t understand the investor-rehabber-sales cycle. They were constant buyers but of full value properties that can be listed, relisted quickly or held as long-term rentals.
PS – they have been paying full market value and have been the driving force in the rapid rise in SFH prices. Gee, I wonder what will happen when interest rates rise and their buying slows or stops? I guess that in the coming months I may be publishing another article entitled, “I told you so” once again.
Frankly, your only competition resides between your ears and saying that the institutional buyers are killing the market is an excuse. If you aren’t making offers daily, you are destined to out-think yourself and the market.
DISCLOSURE and DISCLAIMER – this article represents only my opinion and doesn’t reflect anyone else’s whatsoever and it is possible that I could be totally wrong in my assessment of their financial predicaments. I suggest you “fact check” anything in this article by reading the SEC Disclosures available online for Zillow®.
I wish you limitless success in all you do,
Dave Dinkel