Now affecting retail markets. Target down 25 per cent today on earnings. Wait til the labor market is hit then the commercial mortgage backed securities. This Biden "trasnsitory inflation" appears to be not so transitory.lol

We're in for fun times even though a good portion of the US populace is in denial mode




https://seekingalpha.com/news/38403...ail-sector?v=1652881142#comment-92367826


Mall stocks are reeling after Target drops a profitability bomb on the retail sector
May 18, 2022 8:23 AM ETTarget Corporation (TGT)BBWI, TJX, M, JWN, KSS, DDS, GPS, AEO, VSCO, URBNBy: Clark Schultz, SA News Editor37 Comments
Profit Rises 18 Percent At Target Corp
Scott Olson/Getty Images News

The mall store sector fell in early trading on Wednesday after Target (NYSE:TGT) rattled the sector by lowering guidance on "unexpectedly" high costs that were not passed on fully to consumers.

Target (TGT) was less profitable than anticipated and guided for weak operating margin. The retailer was hit by inventory issues (too early and too late), wage pressure at distribution centers, and an unfavorable merchandise mix. Meanwhile, TJX Companies (TJX) also warned of higher freight and labor costs with its earnings report.

Target (TGT) fell as much as 24% in the premarket session. With many earnings reports and guidance updates still due out in the retail sector, traders are jittery again on the near-term outlook.

Macy's (M) -5.82%, Nordstrom (JWN) -5.56%, Kohl's (KSS) -5.10%, Dillard's (DDS) -3.05%, Gap (GPS) -3.59%, American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) -3.48%, Victoria's Secret & Co. (VSCO) -3.77%, Bath & Body Works (BBWI) -4.25%, and Urban Outfitters (URBN) -1.99% all showed losses in the premarket session.

Jason Miller -

In the consolidated statement of operations, I've highlighted the change in cost of sales and SG&A expenses. While total revenue rose 4.0% from last year, cost of sales spiked 10.4% and SG&A expenses rose 5.6%. The cost of sales makes this a supply chain story since those costs would include things such as truckload transportation, which as we know, has been at record levels. Likewise, higher prices for importing products would fall within this category.

•Looking within the "rate analysis," notice how the gross margin rate was down 430 basis points from last year. This is a massive drop and suggests consumers are buying a different basket mix. For example, more groceries and fewer electronics. This is why I keep stressing the key role of gross margin rate in shaping retailers' decisions.

Implication: for anyone who still questions why supply chain matters (after these past two years, I would seriously hope no one still has this question), watching Target's stock get crushed in pre-market trading this AM should make this point very clear.

Great information. This is one of the reasons why I come here. Information from the trenches and not from some talking head on TV.

kwg

Time to be looking at the 'basic necessities' for investments.

Azzholes like me hurting Walmart and FedEx #240 pounds of water softer salt at a time...



#1,000 pounds of fertilizer last week... FREE shipping... cheaper than bulk... 3% rebate from Active Junky...

There is a paradigm shift occurring... pay attention folks... gonna get ugly.

Costco down over 9 per cent today. Huge drop for this company. And like target allowed to stay open in 2020.

https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/COST

The govt calculated CPI is nothing but pure propaganda horseshit.

The 8.5% is in reality about 3 times that.

Retail sales are up 1% for the month of April according to the US Commerce Department even with adjusted for inflation at .3% on a monthly basis for April.

Cars, electronics, restaurants, etc.

lol. and inflation is only 8 per cent according out govt too

All about oil.

Period.

True, ribka.

That was April but May will probably tell another story more in line with what you’ve posted.

Rough opening on the markets this morning.

Target is a 100b company that lost 1/4 value over night.

People have said "I'm just not buying"

SG&A and COGS are a reason, plus the purchase of only essential items like food and not a new TV. I'm betting food has a lower margin for them.

Not even close...

FAR MORE COMPLEX.

----------------------------

If you had said "Profit margins inverse... tied to labor... further impacted by energy costs... overseen by the ineptitude of .GOV"

...your comment would have had credence.

Costco appears to be just getting painted with the same brush because the one I’ve been in lately is packed with shoppers.

HARD COMMODITIES... PHYSICALLY HELD

----------------------------------

In 2019 was much kinder and gentler...

"Stockpile primers, powder, ammo and bullets... just in case."

are people buying essentials like food or big screen tvs, paddle boadrs, furniture, jewelry and Mac books?

I see carts in my costco loaded up with just food. people are stock piling food now. all dog food sold out.

that aint a good sign lol.

It isn't that a good portion is in denial mode, it is that a good portion is totally ignorant of anything going on in this country beyond their little bubble.

They never watch any news.

They never even read any headlines.

They're on pinterest looking at craft ideas for Little Suzies birthday party and tiktok watching some stupid video of a cat jumping from a table to a couch, and taking Little Johnny to his t-ball practice, crying that gas is $5/gallon and that McDonalds won't pay them a living wage higher than the $15/hour they're paying part time help.

And then come election day, they're voting for whoever is telling the best story on how much they're going to give.

The bigger problem is that they don't understand it even if they do read it.

Persistent, aggressive ignorance.

We took to a rice, greens, meat/venison/fish menu for the dogs a while back...

Do both... store bought dog food... AND the rice/greens/meat chow.

You will never guess what Miss Lilly SCB and Rex prefer...

THAT... is "hit the nail on the head" stuff.

--------------------------------------------

Quite literally read a Fakebook post a month or two ago...

Paraphrase below...

"My 401k is down 20%... Inflation is up 20%... so at least I am even."

have 2 50 lbs bags of rice as back up food for dogs. Have 6 months of dog food in shop. Neighbors have chickens and can get a lot of eggs. three freezers full of fish, deer, elk, antelope, pig and bones, veggies

Interesting to note how poorly debt laden western economies are fairing during these sanctions. I

think China and Russia understood this very well before this began.

+1

Wonder how many don't think like us?

Comes down to it we can eat the dogs and get some returns on investment.

What’s your thoughts on Costco stock going forward?

Costco is a great company. that's not the point. Regarding investing now, I feel there is at least another 20 to 30 per cent correction in the market. Possibly more

Once all of the inflation, labor, residential/commercial real estate is sorted out we'll see how bad this gets. Plus dont forget the food shortages, chaos, riots, coups etc especially overseas, and south of us. I predict there will be mass migrations to western countries.

Its funny how arrogant Americans and Europeans have become because we now have enjoyed a very standard of living despite our record debts. All of the proxy Russia war planners at RAND corp, who orchestrated this war, never took into account how vulnerable we were due to our heavy debt before entering a war and actually thought sanctions would work to our and European's advantage. . Sanctions of course exacerbated our debt problems, inflation and made us much more vulnerable now.China locked down its economy and our supplies at the same time adding more supply chain issues, Think this was by accident? Of course our great proxy war mongers at RAND and the pentagon neglected to predict this too. take a look at Russia's debt and what they produce now in country while we outsourced all of our production overseas.

I don't recommend trying to catch falling knives.

LOL...



Try ANY (repeat ANY) other currency vs. USD

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/

Joey is really really fugging more than just us...

^^^^^

Definition of Clueless Karen.

Good post.

The FED has signaled more interest rates bumps but I do question if Powell has the same dogged determination of what Volker had. If not he’ll start easing again if he’s not already doing so behind the scenes.

DJ just dropped another 1000 today

Fed is a year behind on inflation.

Don't be surprised if they're a year behind on the recession too...

It’s all because the rich aren’t paying their fair share!

They're at 4-5 months[behind] already.

Oh .. Let’s Go 100 Bases Points next Meeting..
The Rubble will take years to Move …

I thought about you when I drove by a Ritchie Bros. facility north of Denver on Monday. The site was crammed full of vehicles and industrial equipment. I can remember times in the past few years when there was almost nothing on the lot.

Either they are lying or the math that I was taught in public school has failed me greatly.
NOTHING I am buying has only gone up 8.5%. You are correct more like 3 times that rate.