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Posted By: Poconojack Stock Market - 07/27/22
Still a long way to go, but very happy I didn’t capitulate.
Posted By: ribka Re: Stock Market - 07/27/22
another major correction is coming this fall. 30 to 40 per cent

one ok day in the market doesn't matter
Posted By: Longbob Re: Stock Market - 07/27/22
Originally Posted by ribka
another major correction is coming this fall. 30 to 40 per cent

one ok day in the market doesn't matter

Interesting. Based on what fundamentals?
Posted By: ribka Re: Stock Market - 07/27/22
Originally Posted by Longbob
Originally Posted by ribka
another major correction is coming this fall. 30 to 40 per cent

one ok day in the market doesn't matter

Interesting. Based on what fundamentals?

ongoing wars ( now pushing for war with China) , printing billions more for Ukraine during a recession, increased sanctions and rising inflation, , more fed rate hikes, very low labor participation, tanking real estate market, record personal debt, upcoming food crisis, the EU and China economies etc
Posted By: Houston_2 Re: Stock Market - 07/27/22
Originally Posted by Poconojack
Still a long way to go, but very happy I didn’t capitulate.


Lots of opportunities being seen and gathered in, in these pullbacks.

Traders have got to be doing well in this environment .
Posted By: Longbob Re: Stock Market - 07/27/22
Originally Posted by ribka
Originally Posted by Longbob
Originally Posted by ribka
another major correction is coming this fall. 30 to 40 per cent

one ok day in the market doesn't matter

Interesting. Based on what fundamentals?

ongoing wars ( now pushing for war with China) , printing billions more for Ukraine during a recession, increased sanctions and rising inflation, , more fed rate hikes, very low labor participation, tanking real estate market, record personal debt, upcoming food crisis, the EU and China economies etc

And you feel this will cause a drop of 10,000 to 12,000 points on the Dow this fall?
Posted By: TimZ Re: Stock Market - 07/27/22
Never a good idea to capitulate and miss the upside.........that's what I keep telling myself anyway.
Posted By: antlers Re: Stock Market - 07/27/22
If it goes down 30 to 40 percent, I’m gonna be jumpin’ in significantly. If it goes down “in Biblical proportions”, I’m gonna be jumpin’ in significantly. When it went down to 18K and some change in the first quarter of 2020, I jumped in significantly, and I’m very glad that I did.

My buddies were bailin’ out big time by sellin’ out in the first quarter of 2020; they hadn’t lost a single share, but they got scared when they looked at the dollar amount. They ended up gettin’ the livin’ schit kicked out of em’.

If they’d just left their stuff alone, they woulda been in WAY better shape later on. If they’d jumped in some more during that time, they woulda been in WAY better shape later on.
Posted By: ribka Re: Stock Market - 07/27/22
Originally Posted by Longbob
Originally Posted by ribka
Originally Posted by Longbob
Originally Posted by ribka
another major correction is coming this fall. 30 to 40 per cent

one ok day in the market doesn't matter

Interesting. Based on what fundamentals?

ongoing wars ( now pushing for war with China) , printing billions more for Ukraine during a recession, increased sanctions and rising inflation, , more fed rate hikes, very low labor participation, tanking real estate market, record personal debt, upcoming food crisis, the EU and China economies etc

And you feel this will cause a drop of 10,000 to 12,000 points on the Dow this fall?

yep. plus I think a very good possibility for a major false flag moment before midterms. Indicting Trump for sedition would start it. I see Pelosi is scheduled to fly to Taiwan to ramp up a war with China next month. Nothing helps a major recession like a few a few more wars and more spending
Posted By: Longbob Re: Stock Market - 07/27/22
Originally Posted by ribka
Originally Posted by Longbob
Originally Posted by ribka
Originally Posted by Longbob
Originally Posted by ribka
another major correction is coming this fall. 30 to 40 per cent

one ok day in the market doesn't matter

Interesting. Based on what fundamentals?

ongoing wars ( now pushing for war with China) , printing billions more for Ukraine during a recession, increased sanctions and rising inflation, , more fed rate hikes, very low labor participation, tanking real estate market, record personal debt, upcoming food crisis, the EU and China economies etc

And you feel this will cause a drop of 10,000 to 12,000 points on the Dow this fall?

yep. plus I think a very good possibility for a major false flag moment before midterms. Indicting Trump for sedition would start it. I see Pelosi is scheduled to fly to Taiwan to ramp up a war with China next month. Nothing helps a major recession like a few a few more wars and more spending

You seem very confident in this. You can make money on your prediction by selling S&P futures or if you don't want the risk then you can buy puts on S&P futures. You are predicting it happening pretty quickly so there shouldn't be that much time value in the contracts. Are you doing any of this to capitalize on your prediction?
Posted By: ribka Re: Stock Market - 07/27/22
Ive dabbled in futures. Majority of money on sidelines for now. I picked up some NVIDIA, Intest, last week and Qcom a few weeks ago.

Im doing some swing trading. I bought HUT, USWS, CNTA, SDG a few weeks ago too. sell orders in . Have some orders in on some precious metal mining stocks as they are near 52 week lows. I want cash for realestate this winter or next spring so that's my main goal now but could change. Changes happen so often that try and be prepared. Debts paid off being patient


I pulled out of market in Dec 2019 and jumped in end of March 2020. Did ok especially on energy stocks

Who knows if Im right? Just my two cents. Im not very positive. Staring two world wars during a bad recession with the world's super powers for no reason other to enrich bureaucrats generally make me uneasy,

good luck to all





Originally Posted by Longbob
Originally Posted by ribka
Originally Posted by Longbob
Originally Posted by ribka
Originally Posted by Longbob
Originally Posted by ribka
another major correction is coming this fall. 30 to 40 per cent

one ok day in the market doesn't matter

Interesting. Based on what fundamentals?

ongoing wars ( now pushing for war with China) , printing billions more for Ukraine during a recession, increased sanctions and rising inflation, , more fed rate hikes, very low labor participation, tanking real estate market, record personal debt, upcoming food crisis, the EU and China economies etc

And you feel this will cause a drop of 10,000 to 12,000 points on the Dow this fall?

yep. plus I think a very good possibility for a major false flag moment before midterms. Indicting Trump for sedition would start it. I see Pelosi is scheduled to fly to Taiwan to ramp up a war with China next month. Nothing helps a major recession like a few a few more wars and more spending

You seem very confident in this. You can make money on your prediction by selling S&P futures or if you don't want the risk then you can buy puts on S&P futures. You are predicting it happening pretty quickly so there shouldn't be that much time value in the contracts. Are you doing any of this to capitalize on your prediction?
Posted By: Longbob Re: Stock Market - 07/27/22
Originally Posted by antlers
If it goes down 30 to 40 percent, I’m gonna be jumpin’ in significantly. If it goes down “in Biblical proportions”, I’m gonna be jumpin’ in significantly. When it went down to 18K and some change in the first quarter of 2020, I jumped in significantly, and I’m very glad that I did.

My buddies were bailin’ out big time by sellin’ out in the first quarter of 2020; they hadn’t lost a single share, but they got scared when they looked at the dollar amount. They ended up gettin’ the livin’ schit kicked out of em’.

If they’d just left their stuff alone, they woulda been in WAY better shape later on. If they’d jumped in some more during that time, they woulda been in WAY better shape later on.


The S&P was up by the end of 2020 so there would been pretty good odds they would have made money not trying to time it and just left it alone. The S&P is down a little over 15% YTD. Taking it down another 30% to 40% this year would put it down as much as it was over all during '08 and '09. Basically it would be far worse than any single year market going back to 1945.
Posted By: ribka Re: Stock Market - 07/27/22
What's actual inflation rate calculating in true cost of living? Well over 20 per cent. How many years since it has been that high?




Originally Posted by Longbob
Originally Posted by antlers
If it goes down 30 to 40 percent, I’m gonna be jumpin’ in significantly. If it goes down “in Biblical proportions”, I’m gonna be jumpin’ in significantly. When it went down to 18K and some change in the first quarter of 2020, I jumped in significantly, and I’m very glad that I did.

My buddies were bailin’ out big time by sellin’ out in the first quarter of 2020; they hadn’t lost a single share, but they got scared when they looked at the dollar amount. They ended up gettin’ the livin’ schit kicked out of em’.

If they’d just left their stuff alone, they woulda been in WAY better shape later on. If they’d jumped in some more during that time, they woulda been in WAY better shape later on.


The S&P was up by the end of 2020 so there would been pretty good odds they would have made money not trying to time it and just left it alone. The S&P is down a little over 15% YTD. Taking it down another 30% to 40% this year would put it down as much as it was over all during '08 and '09. Basically it would be far worse than any single year market going back to 1945.
Posted By: antlers Re: Stock Market - 07/27/22
Originally Posted by Longbob
The S&P was up by the end of 2020 so there would been pretty good odds they would have made money not trying to time it and just left it alone. The S&P is down a little over 15% YTD. Taking it down another 30% to 40% this year would put it down as much as it was over all during '08 and '09. Basically it would be far worse than any single year market going back to 1945.
That said, I don’t really give a flip about any single year. Other’s might. Everybody’s situation is different, and everybody’s time frame is different. I’m in it strictly for the long haul…and not for me…but for my kids.

The stuff that I already had during ‘08 and ‘09, I left it alone, and I’m very glad that I did. And I jumped in significantly more during ‘08 and ‘09 and I’m very glad that I did.
Posted By: jaguartx Re: Stock Market - 07/27/22
Originally Posted by ribka
another major correction is coming this fall. 30 to 40 per cent

one ok day in the market doesn't matter

Some fail to learn the most simple truths, such as, "Don't Fight The Fed".
Posted By: jaguartx Re: Stock Market - 07/27/22
Originally Posted by Poconojack
Still a long way to go, but very happy I didn’t capitulate.

You wont be happy long.
Posted By: Longbob Re: Stock Market - 07/27/22
Originally Posted by antlers
Originally Posted by Longbob
The S&P was up by the end of 2020 so there would been pretty good odds they would have made money not trying to time it and just left it alone. The S&P is down a little over 15% YTD. Taking it down another 30% to 40% this year would put it down as much as it was over all during '08 and '09. Basically it would be far worse than any single year market going back to 1945.
That said, I don’t really give a flip about any single year. Other’s might. Everybody’s situation is different, and everybody’s time frame is different. I’m in it strictly for the long haul…and not for me…but for my kids.

The stuff that I already had during ‘08 and ‘09, I left it alone, and I’m very glad that I did. And I jumped in significantly more during ‘08 and ‘09 and I’m very glad that I did.

And your approach has the odds in your favor.
Posted By: jaguartx Re: Stock Market - 07/27/22
Originally Posted by Longbob
Originally Posted by ribka
another major correction is coming this fall. 30 to 40 per cent

one ok day in the market doesn't matter

Interesting. Based on what fundamentals?

Ecomony and Fed crashing for the Economic Reset.

90% of stocks controlled by the Bolshevik Neonazis.

They are all going down. There are laws against them working with foreign actors, like Chyna, to overthrow the US Govt in time of declared war. Its called subversion.

Dont say Trump didnt tell you. He said he was going to fix it so this crooked govt and voting schiett never happens again. He gave you a clue.

Ill repeat it for you.

[Linked Image from i.postimg.cc]
Posted By: Longbob Re: Stock Market - 07/27/22
Originally Posted by jaguartx
Originally Posted by Longbob
Originally Posted by ribka
another major correction is coming this fall. 30 to 40 per cent

one ok day in the market doesn't matter

Interesting. Based on what fundamentals?

Ecomony and Fed crashing for the Economic Reset.

90% of stocks controlled by the Bolshevik Neonazis.

They are all going down. There are laws against them working with foreign actors, like Chyna, to overthrow the US Govt in time of declared war. Its called subversion.

Dont say Trump didnt tell you. He said he was going to fix it so this crooked govt and voting schiett never happens again. He gave you a clue.

Ill repeat it for you.

[Linked Image from i.postimg.cc]

Maybe take a breath every now and then.
Posted By: Longbob Re: Stock Market - 07/27/22
ribka,

The way you post at the top of the quotes doesn't allow me to quote you and answer directly. It is a bit awkward how you do that, but that is your style. To answer your inflation question is pretty straight forward. That would benefit equity ownership and hurt cash or debt.

You would think all the promotion by the gold bugs would be having the sun shine on their azz, but it isn't. This should be the perfect storm based on their narrative of debt, inflation, wars, printing of dollars, fiat, etc.... Why isn't gold at $5,000 per oz or more? Maybe because it doesn't really work like they think it does.
Posted By: AKwolverine Re: Stock Market - 07/27/22
Originally Posted by jaguartx
Originally Posted by Poconojack
Still a long way to go, but very happy I didn’t capitulate.

You wont be happy long.
And your investment strategy is based on Q? How’s that TWTR short Q told you to initiate working out?
Posted By: ribka Re: Stock Market - 07/27/22
lol


Where did I say gold was a great investments? Ive stated repeatedly the past two years gold and silver weren't great investments in the market. If there is a big correction I might jump with a low percentage in precious metals


The stock market no longer follows fundamental and is heavily manipulated by big banks, insider trading by insiders like Pelosi and of course the fed. I got out of gold and silver in Nov 2020 ( I had less than 10 per cent at the time in portfolio) because of the manipulation and obviously crypto has helped keep down precious metals.


Would you advise 67 year old investor to take the same investment strategies and risk as a 37 year old now?

who knows if Im right? Certainly better than Jim Cramer stock expert lol


Originally Posted by Longbob
ribka,

The way you post at the top of the quotes doesn't allow me to quote you and answer directly. It is a bit awkward how you do that, but that is your style. To answer your inflation question is pretty straight forward. That would benefit equity ownership and hurt cash or debt.

You would think all the promotion by the gold bugs would be having the sun shine on their azz, but it isn't. This should be the perfect storm based on their narrative of debt, inflation, wars, printing of dollars, fiat, etc.... Why isn't gold at $5,000 per oz or more? Maybe because it doesn't really work like they think it does.
Posted By: Longbob Re: Stock Market - 07/27/22
You didn't say anything about gold and I did not attribute it to you. I put that in my comment like you interjected inflation.

There is much more involved about advising any investor than simply their age. That is only one of many considerations.
Posted By: ribka Re: Stock Market - 07/27/22
Originally Posted by Longbob
You didn't say anything about gold and I did not attribute it to you. I put that in my comment like you interjected inflation.

There is much more involved about advising any investor than simply their age. That is only one of many considerations.

Microsoft and google just released their earnings and they missed expectations but their stock prices went up today after the Fed said inflation will keep rising. That's a sign of a strong stable market lol

How much is the fed spending a day buying assets? What is it now 380 million?
Posted By: Poconojack Re: Stock Market - 08/10/22
Still a long way to go, but the S&P is up 15% from the June low. Happier than ever I didn’t capitulate and try to time the market.
Posted By: Oldelkhunter Re: Stock Market - 08/10/22
Originally Posted by Poconojack
Still a long way to go, but the S&P is up 15% from the June low. Happier than ever I didn’t capitulate and try to time the market.


Glad its on the upswing but wondering how long this run will last.
Posted By: CashisKing Re: Stock Market - 08/10/22
I personally see no fundamentals whatsoever... to support enthusiasm.

Good luck to those that disagree with my opinion.
Posted By: ribka Re: Stock Market - 08/10/22
Originally Posted by CashisKing
I personally see no fundamentals whatsoever... to support enthusiasm.

Good luck to those that disagree with my opinion.

all based on speculation. The market has not priced out yet. Still predict at least another 20 per cent drop.

Hoping to jump back into real-estate next year
Posted By: TimberRunner Re: Stock Market - 08/10/22
Pretty classic up and down at the start of a recession. By 2023, we'll begin to see the drag downward again. There's some deals right now, there will be more in a few more quarters.
Posted By: ribka Re: Stock Market - 08/10/22
The CPI is coming out in 30 min. I see that housing is supposedly up around only 5.6 per cent this year.

Its amazing how they manipulate these numbers.

Everyone go back in the water the shark is gone lol

watch the algorithms from the large traders.

Ill take some short term gains
Posted By: Houston_2 Re: Stock Market - 08/10/22
Group of analysts from UBS and CITI are predicting we’re coming up off of the bottom and that another.75% bump up in rates is very unlikely.

We’ll see soon enough I reckon.
Posted By: Oldelkhunter Re: Stock Market - 08/10/22
Meanwhile the Chinese real estate market is imploding.
Posted By: MuskegMan Re: Stock Market - 08/10/22
Originally Posted by CashisKing
I personally see no fundamentals whatsoever... to support enthusiasm.

Irrational exuberance?
Posted By: dale06 Re: Stock Market - 08/10/22
Originally Posted by Longbob
Originally Posted by ribka
another major correction is coming this fall. 30 to 40 per cent

one ok day in the market doesn't matter

Interesting. Based on what fundamentals?
Originally Posted by ribka
another major correction is coming this fall. 30 to 40 per cent

one ok day in the market doesn't matter


True, but a few ok days in the market are better than attempting to time the market, and missing those days. However, people are free to make their own investment decisions.
Posted By: ribka Re: Stock Market - 08/10/22
Originally Posted by Houston_2
Group of analysts from UBS and CITI are predicting we’re coming up off of the bottom and that another.75% bump up in rates is very unlikely.

We’ll see soon enough I reckon.


Irrational ignorance

I’ll pick up more energy on drops. Due for a nice rise this winter once dementia jo stops emptying our strategic reserves
Posted By: CashisKing Re: Stock Market - 08/10/22
Originally Posted by MuskegMan
Originally Posted by CashisKing
I personally see no fundamentals whatsoever... to support enthusiasm.

Irrational exuberance?

Desperation... moreover... I would call it.

MANY MANY people/investors have ONLY a "Plan A"...

That "Plan A" is to do the one thing they have ALWAYS DONE... i.e. invest in "the market"

(Few actually understand "the market" in which they have placed a lifetime of faith/work/HOPE... (admittedly... nor do I understand "the market").)

And watch it go up... and down... and gyrate around based on past historical models that say "all is well"... and all will come back.

The lack of faith in fundamentals that I no longer have/trust is based on the magnitudes of the LIES in 2021/22 and the sheer hopelessness I see in people...

Albeit zombie workers/people with actual trust/honor in nothing... or simply a desperate Prayer that "Plan A" works out, because there is no "Plan B".

Again... Good luck to those that disagree with my opinion.
Posted By: ribka Re: Stock Market - 08/10/22
I bought some tech stocks in June on lows I’m selling soon. Decent returns. Long term now no way


Originally Posted by dale06
Originally Posted by Longbob
Originally Posted by ribka
another major correction is coming this fall. 30 to 40 per cent

one ok day in the market doesn't matter

Interesting. Based on what fundamentals?
Originally Posted by ribka
another major correction is coming this fall. 30 to 40 per cent

one ok day in the market doesn't matter


True, but a few ok days in the market are better than attempting to time the market, and missing those days. However, people are free to make their own investment decisions.
Posted By: Longbob Re: Stock Market - 08/10/22
Originally Posted by CashisKing
Originally Posted by MuskegMan
Originally Posted by CashisKing
I personally see no fundamentals whatsoever... to support enthusiasm.

Irrational exuberance?

Desperation... moreover... I would call it.

MANY MANY people/investors have ONLY a "Plan A"...

That "Plan A" is to do the one thing they have ALWAYS DONE... i.e. invest in "the market"

(Few actually understand "the market" in which they have placed a lifetime of faith/work/HOPE... (admittedly... nor do I understand "the market").)

And watch it go up... and down... and gyrate around based on past historical models that say "all is well"... and all will come back.

The lack of faith in fundamentals that I no longer have/trust is based on the magnitudes of the LIES in 2021/22 and the sheer hopelessness I see in people...

Albeit zombie workers/people with actual trust/honor in nothing... or simply a desperate Prayer that "Plan A" works out, because there is no "Plan B".

Again... Good luck to those that disagree with my opinion.

Mr. Market is a manic/depressive. The fundamental guys will know what I am referring to and will take advantage of it.
Posted By: CashisKing Re: Stock Market - 08/10/22
Originally Posted by Longbob
Mr. Market is a manic/depressive. The fundamental guys will know what I am referring to and will take advantage of it.

Did I not wish you the best of luck in your pursuits?
Posted By: Longbob Re: Stock Market - 08/10/22
Originally Posted by CashisKing
Originally Posted by Longbob
Mr. Market is a manic/depressive. The fundamental guys will know what I am referring to and will take advantage of it.

Did I not wish you the best of luck in your pursuits?

What part of my post is in conflict with what you posted?
Posted By: Houston_2 Re: Stock Market - 08/10/22
Originally Posted by Longbob
Originally Posted by CashisKing
Originally Posted by MuskegMan
Originally Posted by CashisKing
I personally see no fundamentals whatsoever... to support enthusiasm.

Irrational exuberance?

Desperation... moreover... I would call it.

MANY MANY people/investors have ONLY a "Plan A"...

That "Plan A" is to do the one thing they have ALWAYS DONE... i.e. invest in "the market"

(Few actually understand "the market" in which they have placed a lifetime of faith/work/HOPE... (admittedly... nor do I understand "the market").)

And watch it go up... and down... and gyrate around based on past historical models that say "all is well"... and all will come back.

The lack of faith in fundamentals that I no longer have/trust is based on the magnitudes of the LIES in 2021/22 and the sheer hopelessness I see in people...

Albeit zombie workers/people with actual trust/honor in nothing... or simply a desperate Prayer that "Plan A" works out, because there is no "Plan B".

Again... Good luck to those that disagree with my opinion.

Mr. Market is a manic/depressive. The fundamental guys will know what I am referring to and will take advantage of it.


Quality, diversified items in the portfolio and take the long view .
Posted By: CashisKing Re: Stock Market - 08/10/22
Originally Posted by Longbob
Originally Posted by CashisKing
Originally Posted by Longbob
Mr. Market is a manic/depressive. The fundamental guys will know what I am referring to and will take advantage of it.

Did I not wish you the best of luck in your pursuits?

What part of my post is in conflict with what you posted?

None Sir... I misread your comment.
Posted By: Longbob Re: Stock Market - 08/10/22
Originally Posted by CashisKing
Originally Posted by Longbob
Originally Posted by CashisKing
Originally Posted by Longbob
Mr. Market is a manic/depressive. The fundamental guys will know what I am referring to and will take advantage of it.

Did I not wish you the best of luck in your pursuits?

What part of my post is in conflict with what you posted?

None Sir... I misread your comment.

No worries. All good.
Posted By: Calvin Re: Stock Market - 08/10/22
Got cash in the brokerage account waiting for an opportunity.
Posted By: Longbob Re: Stock Market - 08/11/22
Disclaimer: This is not directed at anybody in this thread or any other market thread.

There are generally two approaches to investing, Fundamental or Technical. Some people mix in a little of both, but let me explain the major differences. Technical is more or less chart reading and patterns. The technical approach is data mining to find a repeating pattern that they feel can forecast the future with some form of accuracy. I am not a big fan of it, but it does have its place.

Fundamental, or qualitative, investing is the analysis of the actual company, commodity, bond, real estate, precious metal, crypto currency, etc.... I favor this one because it makes a bit more sense to me and is exactly what Warren Buffett follows for example. He follows the Benjamin Graham/David Dodd school of investing. They did an extensive study which had an advantage over time (Technical vs Fundamental) and gave the edge to the Fundamental style. True or not it is far easier for me to sink my teeth into and it is far more simple in my opinion.

Basically, you take every investment that interests you and you feel has a legitimate spot in your portfolio which could consist of certain stocks, bonds, real estate, precious metals, commodities, crypto.....whatever you feel you understand. This is now your universe of investments. Take each one of those investments and study it until you can assess a fair value to said investment. Then you let Mr. Market do its thing in its own manic/depressive way. Graham and Dodd labeled it Mr. Market and called it a manic/depressive.

Don't make it harder than it has to be. No reason to fight the market for your particular investment. Let it do all the work. What I mean by that is once you have established a fair value for your investment then wait until the market discounts your investment (depressive) to a point that you are comfortable in purchasing it. The discount to fair value is called "margin of safety." The greater the margin of safety the less important your fair value calculation needs to be.

Now you allow the market to do its thing again. Once the market gets manic on your investment then you reduce or outright sell as it nears or surpasses your calculated fair value. You do need to constantly re-evaluate the fair value because things will affect it like dividend increases or reductions on a stock.

There is a bit more advanced way of portfolio construction with value investing and it can be quite effective independent of tax issues and transaction costs. It is called playing the margin of safety game. You take two similar investments which you have assessed the fair value. It can be real estate, precious metals, or even two similar stocks like Chevron Texaco and Exxon Mobil.

Say you own Exxon Mobil which you bought at a discount to fair value of 50%. XOM has increased in value, but it is still 10% below your calculated fair value. It is sometimes difficult to close that gap like losing the last 10 lbs of fat. Then you look at your Chevron Texaco research and discover that it is trading at 25% discount to your fair value calculation. The process would be to exchange part or all of the XOM position for CVX. Again as long as tax and trading costs are not too impactful. Chasing the greatest discount to fair value is a possible way to reduce risk in a portfolio and give the position more room to move towards fair value.

There is no reason to fight or try to guess what the market is going to do. It will rise dramatically, fall precipitously, and level off for an extended period of time....but not necessarily in that order. YMMV
Posted By: Houston_2 Re: Stock Market - 08/11/22
^^^

Excellent info.

It’s gotta be quite a challenge in the investment business for one to stay current each year with the changes enacted and those proposed for the future so that personal planning can be effective for clients.

Someone described it as being a perpetual puzzle wrapped in a conundrum, shoved inside of an enigma.
Posted By: RJY66 Re: Stock Market - 08/11/22
Saw an interesting stat this morning on Yahoo Finance.

No SP500 bear market has ever reclaimed 50% of its losses and gone on to make new lows.

The magic number for that is a close above 4232. Its about 4242 now as I type at 11 am.
Posted By: Poconojack Re: Stock Market - 08/16/22
Still a long way to go, but according to two different sources this morning traders are rushing to cover shorts and get back in the market. Continue to be very happy that I didn’t capitulate back in June.
Just wondering what the Campfire market gurus think?
Posted By: Raeford Re: Stock Market - 08/16/22
Cashed out mid winter, jumped back in about 2 months ago.
Every item is up between 10-40% from buy back price
Posted By: ribka Re: Stock Market - 08/16/22
I jumped in on meme stock BBBY last week. Just hit my sell order

Fed dumping the billion sin the market will prop up for awhile longer
Posted By: Poconojack Re: Stock Market - 02/02/23
Almost 6 months down the road, how are others feeling about the markets?
Posted By: Clarkm Re: Stock Market - 02/02/23
I think the market will slowly recover from covid over the next 4 years.
Posted By: Angus1895 Re: Stock Market - 02/02/23
Cramer called the bull market on Tuesday.

The Fed speech seemed to open the barn doors yesterday.

Let’s hope she rolls!

Attached picture 890D78F7-D88C-422D-A236-5F48E75A9E07.gif
Posted By: memtb Re: Stock Market - 02/02/23
Too old to “jump ship” now….I’ll ride it out and hope that I don’t go down with the ship. Still down about 100K …..slowly recovering! memtb
Posted By: gregintenn Re: Stock Market - 02/02/23
It’s been going the right direction for the last week or so.

Timing the market is a fool’s errand. Pick your poison and buy a set amount monthly.
Posted By: Clarkm Re: Stock Market - 02/02/23
Originally Posted by gregintenn
It’s been going the right direction for the last week or so.

Timing the market is a fool’s errand. Pick your poison and buy a set amount monthly.

I have a conservative friend with a day trading licence that made $2M in oil futures in 2008 and then lost $1M in 2009.

Per my investment system and personal disposition, that is insanity.

I stayed fully invested through the 1987 stock crash.. and a year later it was like it never happened.
Posted By: Houston_2 Re: Stock Market - 02/02/23
The FED’s Powell said today that he’s encouraged by what he is seeing with inflation at this point in time but he does not presently see the possibility of rate cuts in 2023.
Posted By: gregintenn Re: Stock Market - 02/02/23
Originally Posted by Clarkm
Originally Posted by gregintenn
It’s been going the right direction for the last week or so.

Timing the market is a fool’s errand. Pick your poison and buy a set amount monthly.

I have a conservative friend with a day trading licence that made $2M in oil futures in 2008 and then lost $1M in 2009.

Per my investment system and personal disposition, that is insanity.

I stayed fully invested through the 1987 stock crash.. and a year later it was like it never happened.
I’ve been plowing money into a NASDAQ index fund through this whole fiasco. I’ll continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
Posted By: TimZ Re: Stock Market - 02/02/23
You could say the same about the 2008-09 crash, we came back strong........it's just the imbecile in the White House that worries me.....
Posted By: ribka Re: Stock Market - 02/02/23
I picked up coin, hut, hive, bitf, mara last month after fTX debacle


finally recovering nicely have stop orders set up

Ive been looking at BOIL, Might pick up if below 6 bucks. Very speculative


Have done ok on KOLD, sell order hit yesterday

If oil comes close to 70 a barrel might add

looking for profit takers next week to cash in and market will drop imho
Posted By: ribka Re: Stock Market - 02/02/23
Originally Posted by gregintenn
Originally Posted by Clarkm
Originally Posted by gregintenn
It’s been going the right direction for the last week or so.

Timing the market is a fool’s errand. Pick your poison and buy a set amount monthly.

I have a conservative friend with a day trading licence that made $2M in oil futures in 2008 and then lost $1M in 2009.

Per my investment system and personal disposition, that is insanity.

I stayed fully invested through the 1987 stock crash.. and a year later it was like it never happened.
I’ve been plowing money into a NASDAQ index fund through this whole fiasco. I’ll continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

Good sign tech companies are trimming all of the bloated extra employees and services
Posted By: Clarkm Re: Stock Market - 02/02/23
Originally Posted by gregintenn
I’ve been plowing money into a NASDAQ index fund through this whole fiasco. I’ll continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

We had cell phones in 1980 [my wife worked on a cell synthesizer then], personal computers in 1977 [my boss bought one from Radio Shack then], and world wide web in 1994 [I was working on an ultrasound cart design with a website inside then].

But when they became popular ~~2000 is when the NASDAQ exploded and crashed. [I was on a plane load of unemployed engineers leaving seattle for silicon valley whee I was to design cell towers for China then.]
Posted By: Poconojack Re: Stock Market - 07/27/23
Six months down the road and still riding it out. Everyone else?
Posted By: EdM Re: Stock Market - 07/27/23
Originally Posted by Poconojack
Six months down the road and still riding it out. Everyone else?

Yep.
Posted By: TRnCO Re: Stock Market - 07/27/23
Yep Ditto. Still not quite back to my high of two years ago, but recovering quickly.
Posted By: EdM Re: Stock Market - 07/30/23
This thread is fun to reread.
Posted By: EdM Re: Stock Market - 07/30/23
Originally Posted by Houston_2
The FED’s Powell said today that he’s encouraged by what he is seeing with inflation at this point in time but he does not presently see the possibility of rate cuts in 2023.

Didn't he just bump the rate up?
Posted By: Dutch Re: Stock Market - 07/31/23
Originally Posted by EdM
This thread is fun to reread.

You made me do it, quite a few predictions of doom that missed the mark. Completely.

Still rocking on, here. Been a good little spurt. There'll be pullbacks, and runups, and the doomsday prophets will never cease....
Posted By: EdM Re: Stock Market - 07/31/23
Originally Posted by Dutch
Originally Posted by EdM
This thread is fun to reread.

You made me do it, quite a few predictions of doom that missed the mark. Completely.

Still rocking on, here. Been a good little spurt. There'll be pullbacks, and runups, and the doomsday prophets will never cease....

Yep. Been reading the doom here for 20 years here. Maybe some will come back and comment on this thread?
Posted By: Poconojack Re: Stock Market - 07/31/23
Originally Posted by jaguartx
Originally Posted by Poconojack
Still a long way to go, but very happy I didn’t capitulate.

You wont be happy long.

Still very happy I didn’t capitulate, it’s hard to argue against the current rally
Posted By: Longbob Re: Stock Market - 08/01/23
Originally Posted by Dutch
Originally Posted by EdM
This thread is fun to reread.

You made me do it, quite a few predictions of doom that missed the mark. Completely.

Still rocking on, here. Been a good little spurt. There'll be pullbacks, and runups, and the doomsday prophets will never cease....

Yes, there were some saying Dow 12,000 was the buy in point when it was 28,000 recently.
Posted By: EdM Re: Stock Market - 08/02/23
Originally Posted by Longbob
Originally Posted by Dutch
Originally Posted by EdM
This thread is fun to reread.

You made me do it, quite a few predictions of doom that missed the mark. Completely.

Still rocking on, here. Been a good little spurt. There'll be pullbacks, and runups, and the doomsday prophets will never cease....

Yes, there were some saying Dow 12,000 was the buy in point when it was 28,000 recently.

Crickets...
Posted By: EdM Re: Stock Market - 08/03/23
What's the latest forecast kind folks?
Posted By: atomchaser Re: Stock Market - 08/03/23
Originally Posted by EdM
What's the latest forecast kind folks?


The market will move up and down in unpredictable ways but the long term trend is up. How's that?
Posted By: Dutch Re: Stock Market - 08/04/23
Originally Posted by atomchaser
Originally Posted by EdM
What's the latest forecast kind folks?


The market will move up and down in unpredictable ways but the long term trend is up. How's that?

Best first six months the market has had since '97. Time to get in! ;-)
Posted By: EdM Re: Stock Market - 08/04/23
Originally Posted by Dutch
Originally Posted by atomchaser
Originally Posted by EdM
What's the latest forecast kind folks?


The market will move up and down in unpredictable ways but the long term trend is up. How's that?

Best first six months the market has had since '97. Time to get in! ;-)

grin
Posted By: tdbob Re: Stock Market - 08/05/23
It will do what it will do. The glass cleaner I use on my crystal ball is no better than what any one else has.
Posted By: TimberRunner Re: Stock Market - 08/06/23
Hard to be a bull.
Posted By: ihookem Re: Stock Market - 08/19/23
Originally Posted by TimberRunner
Hard to be a bull.

I think so too. I m taking some money out of my S&P 500 and put it in more conservative funds lit REITS , SPYD and SCHD.
Posted By: dale06 Re: Stock Market - 08/21/23
Originally Posted by atomchaser
Originally Posted by EdM
What's the latest forecast kind folks?


The market will move up and down in unpredictable ways but the long term trend is up. How's that?

You made a very accurate prediction.
Posted By: Whiptail Re: Stock Market - 08/21/23
Central Banks will prop up markets as soon as they start to falter.
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