My stocks are up 31 percent for this year. Thinking maybe it's time to take all the $$$$$
and run. Wondering is this is a smart move. Have only limited understanding of personal finance.

Don't fight the Fed.

So long as the Fed is still buying $85 billion per month in bonds, it's likely the market will continue to go up.

If they turn of the spicket while prices are high compared to earnings, then it's time to sell, and maybe even time to go short.

Okay

And IF / WHEN I move the money out of the stock market,
should I put it in bonds, gold / silver, bitcoins ... ?

As me at that time, we will have to see what additional variables are in play.

No, no and don't move money out of stock market. 60% stock and 40% bonds is the approximate asset allocation and keep it there. You will grow your money at 8-15% over the long term. Stay the course and you will win.

You got to know when to hold'em and when to fold'em.

The most difficult decision in investing is deciding when to sell. One lesson I've learned is that it doesn't have to be all or nothing. For example ... take half off of the table and you'll only be half wrong or half right. It's similar to dollar cost averaging but in reverse.

It's good food for thought.

Not a bad markup at all. If one still sees potential growth for selected companies (like Apple into Ipad/phones,health related, or the oil industry), I'd leave those alone. Might take profits from others though that are more volatile.

I took about a 40% hit by staying the course with our first crash, and it took about 5 years to recover. I was smart enough to bail just before the housing dive.

I began investing over 40 years ago and have been in the market mostly in mutual funds at 60/40 allocation. I began with $50 per month and grew to $2500 per month until I retired. My investment grew to low 8 figures and I have averaged 8-15% annual over these past 40 years.

I have seen many in and out investors over theses many years and they always loose more than they gain. Only the long term investors are the winners.

Cash is a reasonable position when deciding to get out of the market. I would recommend you get a subscription to Investors.com and they will tell you when the market is getting ready to crash and you can cash in. They track things like that on a daily basis and it is easy to log no every day and go through your reading routine. Someone who is not will to look at and analyze their investments on a daily basis should only be in cash.

What percentage of your portfolio did you lose in 2008?

Respectfully disagree. The guy's made 30%.....time to sell. The markets are a fabricated fraud, manipulated by a bunch of white collar felons. Record personal debt that cannot be paid, record federal debt that cannot be paid....a bird in the hand thing with me.

As I recall about 24% in October of 2008. Again almost all of my holdings are mutual funds. My pure stocks have always been oil.

That type of loss would virtually wipe out the gains of the OP.

Well I disagree. You must be the guy on here that took his parents money and bought gold at $1970 and now it's struggling to stay at $1200. You can disagree with me all you like but I'm laffin all the way to the bank.

this^


my favorite axiom of the market is "it's hard to go broke taking profits"


yep you may leave some $$ on the table


but picking tops and bottoms or market timing is a fool's errand ime&o


bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered

Ed, I too am in mostly MF.
Just wondering what would be wrong with (inside your 401k, IRA) converting to cash, short term, to "lock" in the great gains of the last few years, then go back in again when the market is cycled around through the coming low?
I realize it is very tough to "guess" the market, but I don't know too many people that don't think the Fed has this country so messed up that the piper is coming calling soon.
Also, when hyper-inflation hits 12% or more on your cash seems like a pretty good play.
One other note. I agree with some that feel like the market is rigged. Back in your hayday of investing you could simply buy a blue chip, buy more with the dividends and grow right along with the company.
Day traders and computer trading changed all that.
Thanks in advance.
slave

Sounds good. I can sell half the stock and have a great xmas. Maybe get something for myself
like a new 2014 F150. The other half I can let ride and see if the bull market continues thru next year.

Thanks for the comments and suggestions.

When the shoe shine boy tells you which stock to buy, then sell. Forgot, he's in the WH. Oh he'll.

So does anyone believe the 85 Billion gravytrain can go on forever and what when it ends? Also our every growing national debt that will probably be at or over 20T when he leaves office. I've asked several financial advisors and they can't address this question with anything better then "I'm optimistic about the future" with nothing to base it on. Is it just me or is anyone else concerned that this party may be near an end? In 08' there were fear of bank runs. I can't see a positive end to this for our country. Someone show me a positive side that shows the light at the end of the tunnel isn't the train.

270

good points


I'll be labeled a kook for saying so, but it's increasingly becoming the law of the land that the next bailout will be financed largely via Cyprus scenario.

iow's taxpayers won't be on the hook as much as folks that have money in the bank and in the stock market

bail in rather than bail out

I know, I know, it sounds like I have my tinfoil wrapped too tight, the info is out there if one cares to dig for it though.

IF we have another financial crisis though, from what I can read is that you may have a good portion of your IRA, savings etc, converted to stock in that bank or institution.


20T in "reported" debt and climbing


money in the bank has been a good bet for as long as we've been alive


of course for the Eskimos hunting the pack ice has been a good bet for generations as well

but things do change

Take what's high now (stock) and buy what's low (bonds) after the correction then takes what's high (bonds) and buy what's low (stock) Not everything you have, just some of the profit.
That way you're never out of the loop in your investing.

I have been managing my retirement (403-b) for about 15 years. I have ridden it up and only been caught once on the down side and that was back with the Tec crash. I have my funds set up so I can pull them back and place them into Money Market accounts when it looks like the market is about to go gunnie. In 15 ish years I have withdrawn 80-90% into the MM account 3 times for protection.

6 months ago I started to pull a bunch of my funds out of the market and into fixed income funds. Currently I hold 60k in the market and about 3x that in fixed income. Most of my actions are not based upon the feeling that the market is going belly up but a reallocation based upon my age and anticipation that I will be able to retire in the next 10-12 years.

It has been a great ride as the economy has improved in the past 14+ months and it will continue to translate into good returns in the market. Look at adjusting your funds into safer haven like US Blue Chips and out of emerging markets. From 2000-2012 I held almost 70% of all of my funds in emerging markets and world stocks, very risky but paid off well as the US economy began to tank after 2006ish.

Stay local as much as you can as the Asian/Latin America sector has cooled to the point the benefits do not off set the risks.

Bet you guys did not think I played the market did ya!
Walt

Well you'd be wrong again Einstein. I've made way more in business than I've ever made in phoney economics of the market. It'll take you all of one week to lose everything you've made if you stay in long enough.

one other small detail, if one has been in the market for 40 years they are no spring chicken. You get another 50%decline five or ten years to bring it back could be a lifetime, so to speak.

please explain with interest rates at historic lows where the upside on in bonds?

you really are too stupid for words Waltie


yep it's the improving economy that has lifted the market, the 85 billion a month the Fed is creating is just a coincidence

very valid point Ron

I think the rise in stock prices has been largely driven by the Feds QE. But I am not sure they they will really drop all that much if/when QE tapers off, if the economy has improved enough.

But if my account was up 30%, I would be doing some rebalancing (i.e., sell some)

the economy is improving in some areas, no credit given to those in washington.
But a better explanation is that 85billion of funny money, and corporations being able to refi at historic low rates which cuts their debt servicing costs way down. More of an effect than they are just doing something wonderful.
It never ceases to amaze me how easy it is for the expurts when you see the market go up, and easy it is to forget things like 07/08.
I never hear either when those return are being bantied around, what the real return was after the effects of devaluation.
start at the year 2000, factor in devaluation which means purchasing power decline for those in rio linda, and see what you get.

Your correct that I am Einstein and know enough about investing than many. 40 years of compounding at 12% tells me that I am correct. You do it your way and I'll do it my way and I'll still be laffin all the way to and from the bank.

Selling is a good idea so long as you convert it to physical gold or silver afterwards. If you're going to just put it into bonds, leave it in stocks instead. As bad as stocks are going to be when it all comes crashing down, bonds will be far worse.

You are the little tool aren't you! Did I make any mention as to why most the stock market was earning double digit returns?

Do you just type with your hate or do you actually think before you type? I think you are a cherry picking fool. Read 2-3 words and fire off a response.

Just keep your visitors pass and you along with all of the other ding bats will see the WH on a tour in the next 10 years! Dumb Arss!

Really great advice considering that gold has gone down 40% in the past year.

This. The only caveat is unless you're about to retire and then the allocation stock/others should have already started to change.

It's getting close. They can only report a booming economy AND the necessity for extended emergency unemployment so long, before the Fed is forced to stop printing money and artificially inflating the market.

Eventually, someone somewhere is going to notice these mixed signals.
Maybe.

Some of us went short when the market broke through the 50 day moving average. For those of us who did, it was a good year.

Been a great 25 years for me. I am a fairly high risk investor and have my accounts set up so that I can move my funds out in a day which I have done four times in those 25 years.

Yeah...they'll notice when they turn on the TV and everybody's jumping out of windows. There hasn't been a bubble like this in 80 years.

What bubble? The stock market is at a P/E of 16% of 2012 earnings -- which is just about the long term average. Probably under 14 for 2014 earnings.

There will be a 10-20% correction when the Fed turns off the spigot, but the effects will be far stronger in emerging markets than they will be on Wall Street. When that correction happens, that's a good time to add money.

As far as all these doomsayers -- you have all shorted the market, right? You'll be rich for sure!

Then again, something tells me that you aren't putting your money where your mouth is....

You're a smart man to see that. Most folks buy near the top of a peak and panic-sell in times like we're having right now, while smart folks do as you and I suggest, i.e., just the opposite. I commend you.

Here's Peter Schiff on the topic.

Hawk, what percentage of one's retirement account do you recommend be in gold and/or silver (assuming one buys in a big dip?)

Schiff is a permana-bear. I don't believe he even gave a buy signal since the lows of 2009. Anyone who listened to him the last 4 years missed a 100% move in the stock market.

Sold out of one stock today and I'm taking my 5% profit I made in the last 36 days.

If you don't understand bonds and how they work, it's not worth trying to explain.

Same goes for options and shorting.

Good deal, now you can pay 60% short term capital gains. Zero needs all he can get.

My position, exactly!

No fool it was in a tax free retirement fund.

If you wish to diversify, do so with other commodities, like oil.

PS That's not investment advice, but an opinion of a non-professional on the question.

Stay the course. You'll make more money while it is still going up than you will lose parking it in a no-return bank account.

The Fed does not have to stop printing money. They can do what they want with it.

[quote=eyeball]When the shoe shine boy tells you which stock to buy, then sell.

Your quoting Joseph P. Kennedy? Maybe your right.

Actually it is. The problem is that I can't afford to lose what little I have, and I'm not that big on gambling. You know what they say about the only game in town.

I'd rather go to a whorehouse than the whitehouse, you're apt to find more honest folks in my preference.

you said "due to an improving economy" what a bunch of horsechit, like most of what you type around here. Howza about 85 billion per mos. ? If I take out a loan or start counterfeiting $100's I guess I've improved my financial situation as well heh?


little tool heh? I am fairly slight and small statured. You'd probably have better luck saying this stuff to my face. I'd most likely cower and get me an Obama sticker to put on my truck.


whatcha think, wanna drop by Squarebanks and see?

Get a portfolio diversified according to your risk appetite using modern portfolio theory (index funds, baby, index funds). Then balance it regularly. This guarantees you will sell SOME when equities are high. It also means you will routinely be buying low and selling high.

Picking stocks and timing the market is a time honored fools errand. Just sayin.

Just for interest sake, one should look into how major investment firms incubate their actively managed "winning funds". They start with many funds and flush the losers so they can hold up a very few at the end and tout their records. In active management, if you do not have the equivalent of insider trading going on, past returns most likely will NOT be good predictors of future performance. The reason is that true past performance can be "lost" selectively by the investment firm. I will further add that they eat you alive with fees.

INDEX FUNDS!!!!!!!!

I let my portfolio get stock heavy so I'am just going to balance it back to 70-30. I was told to never chase momentum.

Never chase anything--that's simply gambling, and you'd better be good or you'll lose your shirt.

The stock market, best accessed through index funds, is simply investment in companies. It is highly doubtful that the entire corporate world along with all the world economies will come to a screeching halt any time soon. Keep the money in.

Stay long with good companies that pay a dividend.

I roll my dividends right back in, I have to. Any retirement I will have when I can't work anymore has to come out of my pocket now. I try to maintain 70 stock 30 percent bonds at all times. As I get closer to retirement I will shift more over to bonds. Don't want to be to heavy in stock funds when I am too old, won't have enough time to recover if there would be a crash.

This would be very foolish, indeed, blowing 1/2 your nest egg on a heavily depreciating asset.

Solid thinkin.

True ... but it would put a very big smile on my face come xmas morning.

Run a limit sell order with a decent spread to account for a rapid plunge at a price you can stomach. Revisit as the market swings up. Have a quality dram or 2 of your favorite libation and sleep easy.

Be safe and hope you make some jing.
Patty

Just remember.

It's better to give than receive and ...




I posted this most excellent advice ... first.

I was beating the market from 1994 through 2011 about as much as a small investor would expect to do.

Then this bull market in 2012 and 2013 gave me insanely high returns.

If this were all real, I could heat my house by burning money, but the world can't work that way.

I expect either sky high inflation or a market correction all the way back to 2011 so I can get back down on the same slope of my long term compounded gain.

I have been making 3% compounded on guns for 50 years.
That has been nuts for a couple years too.
I expect that to straighten out as soon as we get a Republican in the white house and clear out the back log of gun orders.

S&P was at 1805 at the time of the OP.

Now we are at 1848, up 2.4% since the OP.

Fed is tapering the QE, but QE is continuing, and the velocity o M2 is still at it's lowest level since the 1946 post WWII hangover.

Take a all of 24HCF opinions, weight them on a scale from 0-100. 0 being sell everything and buy bullet, condoms, cigarettes and morning after pills. 100 being let-er-ride.

Throw out 5 percent of ether end of the the scale.

Then do the exact opposite.

Steve,
There is at least one self made billionaire that went 33% into Gold 2 years ago.

You need a system that weighs the opinions of stupid people more heavily.

It's called the Odd Lot Indicator.

Don't know what the rules are like in the US but here in Canada we have to worry about paying Capital Gains tax. Unless you are working against some prior capital losses selling out all your profits could get expensive (at least here in Canada).

I took a heavy hit back in 2008 but decided to ride it out and left everything where it was. I am now sitting at about 24% more equity than I was at just prior to the 2008 crash. Over the last 5.5 years I've averaged about 4.3% gain (this includes going through recovery from 2008). This year I made 8.34%.

Due to my age (late 70's) I don't need more money unless I want to try to build my estate further for my kids. The situation is different for everyone and my advise is not to seek advise on the internet but to find a professional advisor you can trust. Consult with two or three successful friends and then interview two or three professionals.

Or the OP could cash out and have a glorious 6 months before reality sets in.

Jim

Yeah, maybe factor in post count per day.

The DOW is the bubble of last resort.

I like to keep 25-30% cash in my account unlike others that like to be fully invested in either all stocks, all bonds or a combination of both. With cash on tap, it allows you to stay nimble for those buying opportunities that present themselves. 2008 was a great year for me. With cash in my account, I bought several thousand shares of Ford at much less than a dollar per share and a few hundred shares of AIG at little over $5 per share. After the dot com crash at the turn of the century I bought a few hundred shares of Apple @ $19/share. Let's just say I made a lot more by not being fully invested. Buying opportunities will present themselves throughout the year. Like another poster noted, it's a tougher call to make on when to sell than when to buy. If you were to sell now, I'd sit on the cash until another buying opportunity shows itself. There should be pull back in the market within a few months. Until then, study up and see what tickles your fancy.

Took about 10% out of the stock market and had a great xmas. Plan to move another 30 - 40 % into something Right now I'm not sure.

Bob, some good insight.

New Year is a good time for a person to review their portfolio, paying close attention to the losers, raising cash from you weak positions in order to take advantage of future opportunities.

Probably the best advice on here.

tdbob - when you say .... sit on the cash .... do you mean put it in a bank ?
I hate to put $ in banks right now because the rates are lower than low.

May be a good time to look at your allocation mix and re-balance accordingly. Make sure you have tax inefficient funds/stocks in tax advantaged accounts and tax efficient stocks/funds in taxable accounts.

I think you asked about bonds. One way of thinking of bonds is in terms of what your risk tolerance is and how you would construct your portfolio accordingly. Sorta like saying if you can tolerate a 50% loss with a 100% stock portfolio so be it. But if you can only tolerate say a 20% loss then you would adjust your asset mix accordingly using bonds as a buffer so to speak and get out of a 100% equity portfolio. In the end it really is about your risk tolerance and sometimes you really don't know that is until the [bleep] hits and you have to live through it:)

Keep investing simple, low cost and don't chase past performance. In the end you will have more by doing so than if you chase fast women, bet on slow horses and make financial decision under the influence of libations.

Generally those with significant market positions will keep it in their brokerage account, where they have greater flexibility with these assets. Some firms will have a high(er) rate money market, or you could hold it in a short term bond fund, or Tbills or short term muni's depending on you balance and risk tolerance.

Calvin gave the best advice of the thread.
"Stay long", in regular IRA investments with mutual funds that emulate the big three and don't sell any of it until you have to take a mandatory distribution. Recessions will then become your best return times.

My cash is in a money market fund with my broker. It makes things much easier when I buy stocks, in other words there is no waiting for funds to transfer. Since I work nights, the TV I watch most is CNBC. I follow the market more than a lot of folks do with sports.