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Posted By: Raeford Clearly The Stock Market..... - 11/15/19
The DOW & NASDAQ apparently didn't get the memo that TRUMP BAD...........The only person working in D.C.

Headed for 28K today?
Dunno. With this increase in the economy...are we still doing QE?
QE stopped when President Trump took office. It has not been implemented sense. Quantitative Tightening (QT) is what the Trump administration has faced his entire term.
25 points to go.......

It's the Economy, stoopid!
28004.82 close
My 401K is very much liking this and brokerage account are very much liking this.
Amazing. I hope the trend continues through next November
I'm still amazed how long it's gone without a correction. I've still got some parked in a money market thinking I'll drop more back in the market after a correction but I should have played it all last year. At least most of ours is in and doing pretty well.

Bb
Originally Posted by Burleyboy
I'm still amazed how long it's gone without a correction. I've still got some parked in a money market thinking I'll drop more back in the market after a correction but I should have played it all last year. At least most of ours is in and doing pretty well.

Bb


Stop trying to time the market. Time in the market beats timing the market.
"The idea that a bell rings to signal when investors should get into or out of the market is simply not credible. After nearly 50 years in this business, I do not know of anybody who has done it successfully and consistently.”

That's my opinion on market timing anyways.
Most of it's in there. I just have about 60k that's in a mm account because there's still part of me that thinks much of the market is a house of cards and I'm reluctant to go all in. I wonder if the deficit will catch up to us soon and think the next correction is so far overdue it could be a big one.

Bb
Originally Posted by Burleyboy
I'm still amazed how long it's gone without a correction. . .


I would consider the 4th quarter 2018 a correction, no?
Originally Posted by OrangeOkie
Originally Posted by Burleyboy
I'm still amazed how long it's gone without a correction. . .


I would consider the 4th quarter 2018 a correction, no?



I really took a hit last year, but it all came back. A-hole TIAA Cref advisor told me to sell my stock and go into annuity when it was at the lowest point. That would have cost me 6 figures. That guy is a weasel.
Originally Posted by Terryk
Originally Posted by OrangeOkie
Originally Posted by Burleyboy
I'm still amazed how long it's gone without a correction. . .


I would consider the 4th quarter 2018 a correction, no?



I really took a hit last year, but it all came back. A-hole TIAA Cref advisor told me to sell my stock and go into annuity when it was at the lowest point. That would have cost me 6 figures. That guy is a weasel.


I would be very leery of anyone trying to sell me an annuity.
Originally Posted by OrangeOkie
[quote=Burleyboy]I'm still amazed how long it's gone without a correction. . .


I would consider the 4th quarter 2018 a correction, no?
[/quote

I guess technically 4th of 18 probably was. What's the official definition over 10% ?

Bb
Significant Market Correction Coming?

Rida Morwa - 15:35 – 6 Jul 2017
"I doubt we are going to see any significant market correction that will require us to use inverse leveraged ETFs. We are likely to continue to see market volatility through September, but I believe there is nothing much to worry about. . . . Markets do not go up in a straight line. Market corrections are healthy and help the equities consolidate to move higher during a strong bull market such as the one we are seeing now. Still, I doubt we will see a significant market correction anytime soon. Possibly, we may see a mini correction of around 5%, but it could take a while to happen, and it could start at a much higher level from here. . . . in general, market corrections are characterized as a market pullback between 10% to 20%. Anything below 10% is not considered a correction. It could be called a mini correction. . . . It is best to be a long term investor, and not to worry about market corrections. As long as the risks to the global economy (including recession risks) are low, then the markets will recover, and any market pullback are not likely to last a long time."


"While equities look pretty resilient with a solid long-term uptrend, we should note that during a bull market it is normal to see, from time to time, a pull-back (or correction) of 5% to 10%. Usually market corrections last for four months, on average, and there is a swift recovery after that." Rida Morwa
Here we go again. Annuity bad. You guys know the average intellect out there? Hammers make bad wrenches. And the average idiot doesn't know the difference.

Nothing wrong with a hammer if it fits your need.
My 401K has earned 22% for the year. Increased by six figures. If Trump will stop tweeting and can get elected for another term, I plan on retiring when I turn 60 in about two years.
Originally Posted by ChuckKY
My 401K has earned 22% for the year. Increased by six figures. If Trump will stop tweeting and can get elected for another term, I plan on retiring when I turn 60 in about two years.


Stop Tweeting why, because it hurts your feelers?
Originally Posted by jnyork
Originally Posted by Terryk
Originally Posted by OrangeOkie
Originally Posted by Burleyboy
I'm still amazed how long it's gone without a correction. . .


I would consider the 4th quarter 2018 a correction, no?



I really took a hit last year, but it all came back. A-hole TIAA Cref advisor told me to sell my stock and go into annuity when it was at the lowest point. That would have cost me 6 figures. That guy is a weasel.


I would be very leery of anyone trying to sell me an annuity.

Annuities...the time shares of the investing world.
The only reason the market is doing so well is because there is no place else to put your money that can give you a return of any kind..... If interest rate would just normalize, the market would fall apart....

And as the Fed keeps printing money to cover the overnight business thing... the Repo market... the dollar is going to become worthless when this all comes back to bite us in the azz...

Your life saving will become worthless when the world figures out the value US dollar has been diluted by the Fed printing money....
Originally Posted by GreatWaputi
Originally Posted by ChuckKY
My 401K has earned 22% for the year. Increased by six figures. If Trump will stop tweeting and can get elected for another term, I plan on retiring when I turn 60 in about two years.


Stop Tweeting why, because it hurts your feelers?



I could honestly care less about his tweets, but every time he tweets something about the China trade deal or tariffs, the Nasdaq takes a dump,
Originally Posted by mikieb
The only reason the market is doing so well is because there is no place else to put your money that can give you a return of any kind..... If interest rate would just normalize, the market would fall apart....

And as the Fed keeps printing money to cover the overnight business thing... the Repo market... the dollar is going to become worthless when this all comes back to bite us in the azz...

Your life saving will become worthless when the world figures out the value US dollar has been diluted by the Fed printing money....


Plenty of people in real estate investing would disagree vehemently with your first sentence.
Posted By: TimZ Re: Clearly The Stock Market..... - 11/16/19
Well, it’s good to see that the stock market has pretty much discounted the whole impeachment charade anyway. Maybe Schiffty should take the hint.
Originally Posted by Burleyboy
I'm still amazed how long it's gone without a correction. I've still got some parked in a money market thinking I'll drop more back in the market after a correction but I should have played it all last year. At least most of ours is in and doing pretty well.

Bb


Market timing hinders your ability to get the best results out of the market.
Originally Posted by Burleyboy
Most of it's in there. I just have about 60k that's in a mm account because there's still part of me that thinks much of the market is a house of cards and I'm reluctant to go all in. I wonder if the deficit will catch up to us soon and think the next correction is so far overdue it could be a big one.

Bb



The Secret of Warren Buffet: Sit on a pile of cash. When somehting you like goes on sale, buy it at a discount. However, you don't have to wait for the entire market to crash to find a bargain.
The market has nothing to do with a sound economy. In another thread the statements were business runs on debt, people buy on debt, thank the rich with money in the bank for debt. The usual applauds followed.
Read up on FINANCIALIATION.
That's what this economy has been manipulated by for many years.
It works till the balloon can no longer expand aND bursts.
So you just take on more debt and get a bigger balloon.
That MORE DEBT don't build nothing; no needed infrastructure and no brick&mortar. It just refinances the old debt and takes on the NEW debt for the next bigger balloon.
Read my sig.line.
Originally Posted by SAcharlie
The market has nothing to do with a sound economy. In another thread the statements were business runs on debt, people buy on debt, thank the rich with money in the bank for debt. The usual applauds followed.
Read up on FINANCIALIATION.
That's what this economy has been manipulated by for many years.
It works till the balloon can no longer expand aND bursts.
So you just take on more debt and get a bigger balloon.
That MORE DEBT don't build nothing; no needed infrastructure and no brick&mortar. It just refinances the old debt and takes on the NEW debt for the next bigger balloon.
Read my sig.line.



You may be right or not. The market has everything to do with my personal wealth right now, as the market goes so does my ledger sheet. In a couple of years as I get closer to retirement, I plan on moving money into something less volatile as the stock market. In the past most corrections have turned around in 1 1/2 years. I can stand that now, not so much in 3 years or so. I have no debt and no plans on inquiring anymore in the future.
Originally Posted by SAcharlie
The market has nothing to do with a sound economy. In another thread the statements were business runs on debt, people buy on debt, thank the rich with money in the bank for debt. The usual applauds followed.
Read up on FINANCIALIATION.
That's what this economy has been manipulated by for many years.
It works till the balloon can no longer expand aND bursts.
So you just take on more debt and get a bigger balloon.
That MORE DEBT don't build nothing; no needed infrastructure and no brick&mortar. It just refinances the old debt and takes on the NEW debt for the next bigger balloon.
Read my sig.line.


That is how a capitalist economy is built, and always has been. It's called expected future growth. Anything but growth is by definition stagnation, and "bad" for the markets.

Stay fully invested always, never time the market, and ride out the Pax Americana until you retire or the world collapses. No brainer.
Originally Posted by SAcharlie
The market has nothing to do with a sound economy. In another thread the statements were business runs on debt, people buy on debt, thank the rich with money in the bank for debt. The usual applauds followed.
Read up on FINANCIALIATION.
That's what this economy has been manipulated by for many years.
It works till the balloon can no longer expand aND bursts.
So you just take on more debt and get a bigger balloon.
That MORE DEBT don't build nothing; no needed infrastructure and no brick&mortar. It just refinances the old debt and takes on the NEW debt for the next bigger balloon.
Read my sig.line.


Charlie,

Per usual, you are just wrong. The single biggest drivers of the price of individual stocks are earnings, and expectations of future earnings. It's true there are a variety of ways to measure earnings, such as EBITDA (Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization), and various measure of cash flow, but they all come back to the same basic idea. How much money is this company making (or loosing) today, and what do we expect it to make or loss in the future. Since the stock market is a "market of stocks", the effects of these individual analyses are propagated across a basket of stocks for a measure of the "market of stocks".

The earnings potential of everyone of these stocks, at some level, rides upon the soundness of the underlying economies. Lower taxes and lower interest rates translate into improved margins, and improved profit opportunities. Like wise, lower taxes and interest rates make project that are nonviable at higher rates profitable at more favorable rates.

Yes, companies run on debt. The combined value of all the world stock markets is around 30 trillion dollars, with 90% of that being in just 16 markets, primarily in western economies. But the world bond market is over three times the size with a combined value closer to 100 trillion dollars. To say that "debt builds nothing" is just ignorant. Nearly every house and every car in this country was built and purchased with borrowed money.

Now excessively easy debt terms can lead to a inefficient allocations of assets, and asset bubbles. Throughout history poor government policy's played a hand in many of these bubbles. The prime example of this is the 2009 real estate bubble which largely resulted from the governments objectives to give houses to people who could not afford them.
Raeford: Just think where "we" (the American people and the stock markets!) would be had the ravenous, greedy, alcoholic, anti-American, power mad, bitch known as the "hildabeast" would be if that bull dagger had become President of the United States of America.
GO TRUMP
MAGA
Hold into the wind
VarmintGuy
TimZ: Excellent point!
The business people and businesses of the United States of America are ignoring the anti-American, anti-capitalist demonrats at EVERY turn.
Personally I hope the demonrats keep up this idiocy - nothing better could happen FOR or happen by the Republicans.
"Charade" is an understatement.
GO TRUMP
MAGA
Hold into the wind
VarmintGuy
Originally Posted by mjbgalt
Here we go again. Annuity bad. You guys know the average intellect out there? Hammers make bad wrenches. And the average idiot doesn't know the difference.

Nothing wrong with a hammer if it fits your need.


I don't own any annuities, but I agree some annuities can fill a valid financial need. They serve a useful purpose for many retirees. My opinion is the best use of an annuity is to cover one's recurring mandatory costs (food, shelter, clothing, insurance, utilities, home/auto maintenance, taxes, etc) . . . of course there are other lower risk investment vehicles to take care of these recurring costs, such as bond ladders, preferred stock portfolios, and real estate.
Originally Posted by VarmintGuy
Raeford: Just think where "we" (the American people and the stock markets!) would be had the ravenous, greedy, alcoholic, anti-American, power mad, bitch known as the "hildabeast" would be if that bull dagger had become President of the United States of America.
GO TRUMP
MAGA
Hold into the wind
VarmintGuy


Everyday CNBC runs an article about what would happen to the stock market if Elizabeth Warren wins the presidency. Predictions are a decline of 25 to 30 percent decline in the first year. In contrast, if Trump's re-elected, predictions are for a 15 to 20 percent increase in 2021.
I got a late start investing in the stock market. I made such poor financial decisions over my working lifetime (debt accumulation) and was so ignorant of long term personal financial planning, I was broke most of my life (defined as being in debt, other than a mortgage.) A life, founded on debt servicing, is a dead end road, which can lead to a severely stunted financial condition in the twilight of one's life, when one's age/health does not allow one to successfully trade hours for enough dollars to live comfortably and stress-free. In the United States, there is no reason that should happen to anyone, who does not choose such a financial future. Ignorance of "How to Make Money in the Stock Market," because one is passively concerned about Fed policy, rich "greedy" people, or other financial factors totally out of one's personal control, is a personal choice, and a poor one at that, IMHBAO. I encourage my "younger" fellow Fire Members to get serious about your family's financial future, and educate yourself on how to make money with stock market investments. It is a proven wealth builder. Don't let jealousy or political opinions rob you of your American birthright to wealth via the Free-American Enterprise System.
If Warren looks like she is going to be elected I will go to cash. With virtually no cost trading you can sell and then buy back in and only cost you a couple bucks.
Percentage wise I'm like most of you, up 30%. I've also made more in the market this year than my normal job.

As long as Trump stays in the White House the market will go up as he favors business. The Dems on the other hand want to tax everything which restricts the cash both business and you can spend and we are a consumer driven economy.
Facebook, Google,Amazon, etc, would be a lot higher if congress were not threatening to break them apart.
Originally Posted by FoxTrotter
If Warren looks like she is going to be elected I will go to cash. With virtually no cost trading you can sell and then buy back in and only cost you a couple bucks.
Percentage wise I'm like most of you, up 30%. I've also made more in the market this year than my normal job.

As long as Trump stays in the White House the market will go up as he favors business. The Dems on the other hand want to tax everything which restricts the cash both business and you can spend and we are a consumer driven economy.
Facebook, Google,Amazon, etc, would be a lot higher if congress were not threatening to break them apart.



If if looks like Warren is going to win, I'll liquidate all my long positions, and establish a net short position, probably with a combination of short and leveraged short ETFs and long put options.
if warren gets the nod look for the market to immediately begin to tank. this bitch will kill this country with her horschit ideas. well except for the handout crowd. they'll be fine.
Warren has zero chance of winning a general election. That is why the Democratic Party is starting to hyperventilate and Bloomberg and the other clown are jumping in. They keep shooting holes in the floor of the boat and can’t figure out why it is sinking.
Originally Posted by rem141r
well except for the handout crowd. they'll be fine.


Only until there's no more working class to support them, then everyone starves.
Originally Posted by antelope_sniper

If if looks like Warren is going to win, I'll liquidate all my long positions, and establish a new short position, probably with a combination of short and leveraged short ETFs and long put options.

You won’t be alone if it starts looking this way.
Originally Posted by AKwolverine
Originally Posted by antelope_sniper

If if looks like Warren is going to win, I'll liquidate all my long positions, and establish a new short position, probably with a combination of short and leveraged short ETFs and long put options.

You won’t be alone if it starts looking this way.



I'm right there with you guys. If it starts to look "Blue" for 2020, I will have to make some investment changes I would rather wait a few years on to save what I have made and earned since getting over the 2008 recession and 2009 divorce. Rough years.
If Warren wins, the whole world will be running for the hills when it comes to economics.
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