I think we'll see the markets tank soon. This is a BIG thing happening, and it's closing off global trade, no doubt.

It's time to move to cash...maybe?

Nope.

We are about 6 years from our next major correction.

I don't look at a possible world pandemic as a correction, but a disaster. China's economy is headed into the tank. That alone could cause more than a mere "correction".

I Hope you're 100% correct, however.

I’m already in cash, markets only run so far. The stock market is like 99. I think the least we will see is a 30% correction.

Not unless it truly goes worldwide. The tariffs slowed China somewhat.

I’m thinking we’ll see a dip or pullback but not a major one. Time will tell.

Black swan event?

I’m staying invested. I never was smart enough to time the market.

Maybe, we should know for sure in the coming weeks.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackke...-us-economy-and-job-market/#ebf41673991b

We're pretty much 35% cash/value of our business assets, 25% stocks and 40% real estate (equity in our primary and secondary residences plus rental properties). Not sure what else to do besides stay diverse. The bulk of what we have in the market is in mutual funds and in 401k and Roth's and I'm 20 years from retirement, so not losing sleep at night over "what if's" and definitely not pulling out of the market. Might move into safer funds for the short term.

I'm becoming more and more convinced to move heavier Into real estate/rentals. Wife is managing ours full time (as well as running the office for our construction business) and being in construction makes it more profitable in several ways, (tax write-off's, being able to self perform maintenance etc.) plus we're seeing a 10% cap rate on what we have and can find more with the same if I buy right and do upgrades myself. Our area is traditionally protected due to 3 colleges/universities located with-in a 10 mile radius and one of the highest rates of growth in our state.

A trusted relative/mentor used to always tell me the stock market was nothing but a piece of paper, but buy a piece of land and even if it drops in value "you can always take a piss or plant a potato on it" a lot to be said for that advice.

It will get somewhat lower in the next few weeks but it will come back with a vengeance.

It has fallen the last few weeks even after China said that more folks were sick and dead.

The travel folks will take a hit but i thing that others will find countries that will make up any short falls of goods that China can not make.

Sometime in late March it will subside.

We will see market volatility this year but there's nothing major on deck.

That sounds about right. The corona virus is a simple anomaly that is presenting opportunistic buy in points in the market.

Election year. Probably the most contentious in modern history. A certain level of market volatility is inevitable.

Unless you're planning on retiring this year....[yawn]

That’s the premise behind the whole thing.

I was a stock broker in 1999.

We are no where close to 1999.

The clock started back in August when the yield curve inverted for the 2yr & 10yr Treasuries, typically giving us 1-2 years before the market slides. The Chinese problem may hasten the timeline. The market tends to go up after the inversion until it falls.

The market's appreciation in the last month or so since Corona includes the safe haven premium. Overseas markets will tank first. Dollar is high, US markets are high, I think an overseas market buying opportunity may be presenting itself shortly.

Just read that folks after getting the gene sequence developed a vaccine for it.

Now to mass produce it and get it out there.

Always hope.

The Chinese situation is a bit more serious than most realize. PRC has shut down. Nobody going to work. Nothing going in and nothing definitely coming out business wise. It will certainly affect the world economy for the next quarter or 2. PRC is the #2 economy in the world. It may to prove to be a great buying opportunity, choose wisely.

No, it might drop some.

People are going back to work. Even more next week. Containers are shipping. Slow, yes. Shut down, no.

They will not tank their economy even further unless people start dropping like flies. 1500 people of 1.5 Billion is a concern for the central government but I believe that they will keep moving.

I will be fine, plenty of chinamen over there!

What happens if it gets to Africa or South America??

You may see some momentary dips because of this. We already have. But they will be short and will bounce back.

You’ll see some volatility from it in the short term, but I don’t think it will be an event that will “tank the market”.
Since I am unable to see into the future, I take advantage of dollar cost averaging. That is to purchase a certain amount of index funds monthly regardless of price, and avoid trying to time the market altogether. This strategy has served me well for decades.
Your mileage may vary.

I agree, just bumps in the road. I'll ride it out, just like I have since 1980. I've weathered some tough ones!

How are your stocks doing today?

Mine took a hit.

Until Dow 17,000 (where it was when Trump took over) I'm just riding it out. If it continues to dip I may buy some mutual funds (non IRA).

I'm clobbered already. I should have listened to my gut.

For every sale someone is buying as we speak. So many sell at the bottom.

I pulled out in Tuesday after the bump and before it retreated. There will be some buyers in the morning I think but this is not over. They can’t stop the virus from spreading and that will impact global economy. You already have major companies revising their revenue forecasts this isn’t a short term thing this could last until they find a treatment of a vaccine.

This is hardly the bottom. I'm taking my hit and going to cash. If I have anything left when this turns around I'll put some back into the market. I do MUCH better in real estate than I ever did in the market.

^^^^^^^

We pulled $40K out of stocks several days ago when it started to slide, and left the rest for long term. Taking a.bit of a hit on taxes, maybe. We'll try to time the low (if not the bottom) to re-invest.

But what do we know? - it's all a gamble.

I have TSP and I’m going to let it ride.. like I did in 2008.. I just see the dems purposely trying to crash the market. I think it’s another ploy that’s going to back fire on them. What reading I done it’s just a correction, to the market.. but what do I know..

They used Coronavirus as an excuse for a correction because no one knows exactly how much or little this will affect the supply chains in China or worldwide for that matter.

I hope that in November people remember what Pelosi and Shumer did yesterday.

No only dumb people with money can tank the market. Like soros is trying to do with china and the democrats.

It's only a loss if you cash out. I don't see Warren Buffett selling...

Your asking or telling?

It's there. .

Ok. Tell us when it's at the bottom.

We don't know yet if this is a bad flu virus they are false flagging to hurt Trumps economy or a disastrous epidemic the deep state released to try to destroy Trumps economy, so all most are doing is speculation.

I’m cash and carry!

My IRA has dropped $10k in 3 days. I think it'll be back but it might take a while.

The media is working on it as fast as they can. By the way. How does that stack of cash look now?

Moved all my 401K and wifes in to stable funds, only thing we still have invested in the market is about 40k in a roth, and some personal stocks that were down pre dip anyways that were long term investments, everything is is gaining buying power.

Being out of the market in a dip is a net gain. Buy when fundamentals come back and start driving the markets.

I'm not even looking at mine

I could move it into low yield bonds but it is what it is.

I'll ride it out hope for a rebound in 12 months.

some of usse guys are funny, this coming from a guy in the market since the 70's.

Need to re-think this one?

one of the time tested markers for knowing you were near a bottom was when you saw the ordinary investor liquidating his mutual funds. you know, the old thing, buy at market highs and liquidate at market lows.

Exactly. The other is that so many don't know what "risk" means as it relates to the market. I've lived with ups and downs for 25+ years and stayed the course and I'm not going to change now. The ups always outnumber the downs if you invest intelligently.

Standby.

It reads like the comics. If I had a dollar for every time one of my colleagues told me it was time to "back up the truck and load up" in 2008 I wouldn't give a chit what the markets doing now. If you want to see a down turn wait until Bernie gets a little more traction and starts talking about nationalizing oil and gas as well as confiscatory taxation rates. All the guys that think they are in the know now will be fully invested and down 30 to 50% on what they just bought and no money to buy when the time is really right. Seen it before, more than once.

Should have moved to cash at 29,000. Hindsight is always 2020!

No one minds when they are making double digit returns. Any stock purchase is a gamble. Put your big boy pants on and suck it up or go to the corner and whine.

I have 8-10 more years before I quit working, just going to keep following Vanguards recommendations. My gains weren't as high as an all stock portfolio but my losses are not all that bad either.

i don't think so

All depends on your definition of tank.


The reality is that nobody knows how this will play out. Anyone claiming to is full of it.

It’s going to create a buying opportunity at some point, no one knows when. Be patient though. This thing is just getting going and if you go too soon you could be down 25% quick and loose a bunch of time getting back to zero.

Timing and past buying opportunities:

1. Following 911

2. Following the sub-prime meltdown

3. Following Trump’s 2016

4. Following the abatement of the present corona virus scare and IF Trump’s re-elected . Especially if he’s re-elected.

Jmo

The "Coronavirus" isn't going to do anything.

The media intends to tank the market.

This^^^▪

My opinion is the DS in all their wisdom is playing right into the hands of POTUS by crashing the markets with their coronavirus scheme. Once again it appears he has forced them to make a move on the board they didn't want to make.
This could force the gold standard back upon the markets.

I got out today at a net loss. It will give me money to buy, once we get below 20,000 that I wouldn't otherwise have. In the meantime I have cash for buying some small real estate bargains. These are hedges.