Fauci warns 100–200K Americans could die from virus, but says projections are “moving target” - Axios
“Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on CNN's "State of the Union" Sunday that models suggest the coronavirus will infect millions of Americans and could kill 100,000–200,000, though he stressed that the projections are "such a moving target." Why it matters: Fauci has been the coronavirus task force's most outspoken advocate for emergency social distancing measures to stop the spread of the coronavirus, sometimes contradicting President Trump's more optimistic outlook.”
They’ll count them like hurricane deaths. Every 80+ year old invalid that gives up the ghost will be tested, and if positive, will be a Corona death. Even with 9 and 1/2 toes already in the grave.
My guess is that a lot of the elderly, smokers, alcoholics, drug addicts, obese, AIDS ridden, diabetics, and others in poor health will be taken down by this virus. And there is no shortage of those type of people in this country.
If Doc Fauci says it, I believe that HE believes it. And he is pretty much one of the 'duty experts'.
60,000 Americans die from the flu every year. About 40,000 die in car accidents, 20,000 die in homocides and 60,000 die from suicide. Meanwhile, 600,000 die from cancer and 650,000 die from heart disease every year.
I think if those numbers were mentioned alongside any projected COVID-19 death rates, it would cause us all to settle down a bit.
From what I am seeing in our ICU right now and over the last week, and considering the flu killed 34k people in 2018-2019, and comparing prevalence of severe illness and respiratory failure between the two viruses... yeah. 100-200k dead is very possible.
It is a moving target because there are a lot of factors involved. This keeps spreading and acting like it’s acting, a lot of people are going to keep dying. This is way worse than any flu I’ve seen in 8 years here
The rest of the state is still doing ok, it may subside, this may turn out to be a local uptick. But it has our attention for sure
From what I am seeing in our ICU right now and over the last week, and considering the flu killed 34k people in 2018-2019, and comparing prevalence of severe illness and respiratory failure between the two viruses... yeah. 100-200k dead is very possible.
It is a moving target because there are a lot of factors involved. This keeps spreading and acting like it’s acting, a lot of people are going to keep dying. This is way worse than any flu I’ve seen in 8 years here
The rest of the state is still doing ok, it may subside, this may turn out to be a local uptick. But it has our attention for sure
If his comment is based on the Imperial Modeling done in England I’d say he is way wrong. That study is flawed based on what I’ve read. Human response to the virus doesn’t seem to back up that number of people dying here. Subtracting Chinese data and considering infection rates and the reason for those rated in the hardest hit countries our response is demonstrating a different outcome with better survival rates.
60,000 Americans die from the flu every year. About 40,000 die in car accidents, 20,000 die in homocides and 60,000 die from suicide. Meanwhile, 600,000 die from cancer and 650,000 die from heart disease every year.
I think if those numbers were mentioned alongside any projected COVID-19 death rates, it would cause us all to settle down a bit.
Yep. Instead of making it sound like we’re All Gonna DIE !
They’ll count them like hurricane deaths. Every 80+ year old invalid that gives up the ghost will be tested, and if positive, will be a Corona death. Even with 9 and 1/2 toes already in the grave.
60,000 Americans die from the flu every year. About 40,000 die in car accidents, 20,000 die in homocides and 60,000 die from suicide. Meanwhile, 600,000 die from cancer and 650,000 die from heart disease every year.
I think if those numbers were mentioned alongside any projected COVID-19 death rates, it would cause us all to settle down a bit.
But the issue is that deaths from the virus could be in addition to those figures. It isn't a trade off.
Until a vaccine is created for this particular virus, tensions will be high. The next virus could be worse.
For myself, it's a bit of a wake up call regarding personal health and prevention. I should probably start getting flu and pneumonia shots in the future.
In the USA, Wednesday there were 1000 dead. Saturday night it hit 2000. Might be something to be concerned about.
Yep. And I’m definitely concerned!
But then again, I don’t live in NYC. Those of us in Flyover Country still feel relatively safe so far.
But this constant throwing out of numbers of how many will die is what’s thrown this Country into a terrible PANIC.
ALL the hoarding and financial ruin of our economy is being driven by this crapola Gloom & Doom that’s repeated by the Fake News Media every 5 minutes. It’s getting REALLY OLD.
Fauci warns 100–200K Americans could die from virus, but says projections are “moving target” - Axios
“Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on CNN's "State of the Union" Sunday that models suggest the coronavirus will infect millions of Americans and could kill 100,000–200,000, though he stressed that the projections are "such a moving target." Why it matters: Fauci has been the coronavirus task force's most outspoken advocate for emergency social distancing measures to stop the spread of the coronavirus, sometimes contradicting President Trump's more optimistic outlook.”
Dr. Fauci is doing all he can to convince people to follow guidelines which are designed to minimize or at least slow down infection rate of this virus. The numbers provided are probably not the best or worst estimates. If people don't limit their exposure and others the numbers may very well look worse.
Those graphs showing a flat line for weeks from February to now that suddenly shoot almost straight up are sobering. We have got to stay diligent about our exposures for the next few weeks.
60,000 Americans die from the flu every year. About 40,000 die in car accidents, 20,000 die in homocides and 60,000 die from suicide. Meanwhile, 600,000 die from cancer and 650,000 die from heart disease every year.
I think if those numbers were mentioned alongside any projected COVID-19 death rates, it would cause us all to settle down a bit.
In the last 9 years the flu has killed 60k Americans once. Usually more like 30-40k. Flu season is long. Flu season is usually an uptick in viral disease care that is pretty well managed and expected and dealt with
40k in car accidents, many die on scene and throughout the year. Lot of deaths is ER before ICU too. Hospital burden is different than viral disease
Cancer and heart disease, same thing. These deaths are spread throughout the year and hospital care is set up being adapted to these numbers. Lot of deaths happen outpatient at home. Hospital burden is different than for acute viral disease
Comparing even influenza to cancer and car accidents is not helpful except when assessing Hospital care and world supply is built around this stuff. Add in a new, fast spreading viral disease that kills 200k in the US and it’s gonna be a big deal for hospitals and the economy and for people you know
60,000 Americans die from the flu every year. About 40,000 die in car accidents, 20,000 die in homocides and 60,000 die from suicide. Meanwhile, 600,000 die from cancer and 650,000 die from heart disease every year.
I think if those numbers were mentioned alongside any projected COVID-19 death rates, it would cause us all to settle down a bit.
Yep. Instead of making it sound like we’re All Gonna DIE !
The great thing about this pandemic is that the situation is so complex, there are so many factors involved and so many studies to be analyzed, reported on and promulgated by those with little or no infectious disease knowledge, data analysis experience or critical thinking skills, that one can conjure up whatever potential scenario one wishes.
Faucci is a political animal who really doesn't know his azz from a hole in the ground & is badly out of touch with everyday reality & anything resembling hands on medicine.
Right now any number is a pure fantasy, high or low.
60,000 Americans die from the flu every year. About 40,000 die in car accidents, 20,000 die in homocides and 60,000 die from suicide. Meanwhile, 600,000 die from cancer and 650,000 die from heart disease every year.
I think if those numbers were mentioned alongside any projected COVID-19 death rates, it would cause us all to settle down a bit.
Yes, however, "settling down" would likely increase the death toll because settling down" includes ceasing a portion of the precautions that will otherwise save lives. Denial of risk is not a defense against disease, rather, it increases your exposure and increases the chance of fatality. The same right wing dingalings who preached abstinence to avoid catching AIDS are telling us to keep our head in the sand, the virus is not going to get us. Do you see the inconsistency?
Faucci is a political animal who really doesn't know his azz from a hole in the ground & is badly out of touch with everyday reality & anything resembling hands on medicine.
Right now any number is a pure fantasy, high or low.
MM
Yep. He needs to shut his Fuqking pie hole about how many will die!!
It's possible. How many illegals who are living under the radar are also going to die ?? How many living in Mexico, Central America and south America are also going to die ?? I hate to say it but lot's of folks could end up dead, especially in those areas that have less than adequate health care. Too many unknowns at this stage.
It's possible. How many illegals who are living under the radar are also going to die ?? How many living in Mexico, Central America and south America are also going to die ?? I hate to say it but lot's of folks could end up dead, especially in those areas that have less than adequate health care. Too many unknowns at this stage.
kwg
I don’t give a flying FUQK about Illegals or Mexico.
Not trying to down play the severity of this virus and this may have been mentioned before but.....Medical errors contribute to more than 250,000 deaths in the United States each year, the third leading cause of death in the U.S., according to a 2016 Johns Hopkins study
Could? Yes. Will? Not if we start repenting, here or anywhere else the name of Jesus has been faithfully given in witness. This is about being enslaved by the people who run the money part of the world (and whoever runs them.)
In the USA, Wednesday there were 1000 dead. Saturday night it hit 2000. Might be something to be concerned about.
I'm more concerned about our economy at this point by a wide margin. Gonna be a long cold summer if this drags out another 6 weeks or more, which I think it will. I'm betting [bleep] gets way worse, Biden gets elected And a week later it's over.
In the USA, Wednesday there were 1000 dead. Saturday night it hit 2000. Might be something to be concerned about.
I'm more concerned about our economy at this point by a wide margin. Gonna be a long cold summer if this drags out another 6 weeks or more, which I think it will. I'm betting [bleep] gets way worse, Biden gets elected And a week later it's over.
In the USA, Wednesday there were 1000 dead. Saturday night it hit 2000. Might be something to be concerned about.
I'm more concerned about our economy at this point by a wide margin. Gonna be a long cold summer if this drags out another 6 weeks or more, which I think it will. I'm betting [bleep] gets way worse, Biden gets elected And a week later it's over.
Jack,
It took China 62 days to turn the corner. We are at day 40.
In the USA, Wednesday there were 1000 dead. Saturday night it hit 2000. Might be something to be concerned about.
This is my take too.
I started watching the #s when they said infection rates and/or death toll would double every 4 days. We were at 200 dead then. That has since changed to roughly every 3 days.
In the USA, Wednesday there were 1000 dead. Saturday night it hit 2000. Might be something to be concerned about.
This is my take too.
I started watching the #s when they said infection rates and/or death toll would double every 4 days. We were at 200 dead then. That has since changed to roughly every 3 days.
Most here can do the math...
Are you predicting 4000 more dead in three days, and another 8000 more by this Saturday?
In the USA, Wednesday there were 1000 dead. Saturday night it hit 2000. Might be something to be concerned about.
This is my take too.
I started watching the #s when they said infection rates and/or death toll would double every 4 days. We were at 200 dead then. That has since changed to roughly every 3 days.
Most here can do the math...
Are you predicting 4000 more dead in three days, and another 8000 more by this Saturday?
Those types of predictions are exactly what’s driving the PANIC 😡
It took China 62 days to turn the corner. We are at day 40.
China’s quarantine was likely far more effective than ours. With the size of our country, I am not sure we can expect the same trajectory. I will be ecstatic if we turn the corner in 22 days. And I share the same concern about our economy JM - 6 weeks more will be devastating.
China is just very good on covering stuff up. American School Friends who have lived and worked in China during most of their professional lives have made it back here. They say its a Chit Show. Right now there is a large city in Southern Hunan province called Changsha that has a big hotspot of new cases. They are trying to close it down but there is unrest. China will have 4-6 million people die in this thing. The survivors will be screwed up and not able to work. The US will have a different take on them and per-capita debt to GDP for China is a lot worse than the US. They will have a complete meltdown if we going into an inflationary cycle. We are not buying their cheap chit. They could easily go under.
This disease is going to kill a lot of poor folks in violent areas like Baltimore, Ferguson, S.E. LA, Oakland, Minneapolis, and Detroit. Their hospitals are crap and once the Blue elites get past the high point of the cycle not a lot of people will care if the Homies smoking reefer die in great numbers. I bet without school gang related activities in the rougher areas has gone way up.
It took China 62 days to turn the corner. We are at day 40.
China’s quarantine was likely far more effective than ours. With the size of our country, I am not sure we can expect the same trajectory. I will be ecstatic if we turn the corner in 22 days. And I share the same concern about our economy JM - 6 weeks more will be devastating.
NYC most resembles the epicenter of the pandemic in China.
NYC health officials are predicting another 20 days to turn the corner. We'll see if that's how it plays out or not. Of course, as you mentioned, we are not China. We don't make people "disappear" for breaking lock down.
60,000 Americans die from the flu every year. About 40,000 die in car accidents, 20,000 die in homocides and 60,000 die from suicide. Meanwhile, 600,000 die from cancer and 650,000 die from heart disease every year.
I think if those numbers were mentioned alongside any projected COVID-19 death rates, it would cause us all to settle down a bit.
Is covid-19 going to add to this number or just replace the cause of death?
60,000 Americans die from the flu every year. About 40,000 die in car accidents, 20,000 die in homocides and 60,000 die from suicide. Meanwhile, 600,000 die from cancer and 650,000 die from heart disease every year.
I think if those numbers were mentioned alongside any projected COVID-19 death rates, it would cause us all to settle down a bit.
Is covid-19 going to add to this number or just replace the cause of death?
So if someone has lung cancer, heart disease and has lost several limbs to diabetic and contracts COVID-19, is it really a "Corona Death"?
There are multiple reports that sound like we'll have a vaccine within a year. In easy terms, the coro-19 virus is a simple virus when compared to a complex flu virus-hence it will an easier vaccine to develop. The coro-19 virus mutates very slow when compared to a flu virus and unlike flu virus only coro-19 only has a single core of RNA which seems to remain constant.
In the USA, Wednesday there were 1000 dead. Saturday night it hit 2000. Might be something to be concerned about.
I'm more concerned about our economy at this point by a wide margin. Gonna be a long cold summer if this drags out another 6 weeks or more, which I think it will. I'm betting [bleep] gets way worse, Biden gets elected And a week later it's over.
Jack,
It took China 62 days to turn the corner. We are at day 40.
1. if you believe China 2. if we are willing to do what China did (assuming they were even successful)
60,000 Americans die from the flu every year. About 40,000 die in car accidents, 20,000 die in homocides and 60,000 die from suicide. Meanwhile, 600,000 die from cancer and 650,000 die from heart disease every year. I think if those numbers were mentioned alongside any projected COVID-19 death rates, it would cause us all to settle down a bit.
Is covid-19 going to add to this number or just replace the cause of death?
So if someone has lung cancer, heart disease and has lost several limbs to diabetic and contracts COVID-19, is it really a "Corona Death"?
How we count does matter.
Reminds me of the 104 year old guy in mn that died from corona...ahem. Well, probably not. Yet he's counted as one of our 5 deaths from it.
I can see this happening if we don't do something to flatten the curve. Then there is the "collateral damage", the people with other issues who won't be able to get the care that they need. The "entitled" and the "privileged" need to pay attention.
Feb 29 first C 19 death in US Mar 4 11 dead Mar 8 22 dead Mar 12 41 dead Mar 16 87 dead Mar 20 255 dead Mar 24 780 dead Mar 28 2220 dead
Quote
Infection rates are meaningless because we are not testing properly.
Quote
Where are the bodies?
Quote
Predicting exponential growth? You must be a liberal commie queer.
Folks, this is what four weeks of exponential growth looks like.
Those who observed the early days in China and Italy predicted a doubling every four days. We are seeing worse than that in US.
We are on track for : Apr 1 5,000 dead Apr 5 10,000 dead Apr 9 20,000 dead Apr 13 40,000 dead in the USA. And there is a good chance we will just be getting started at that point
Any body ever see the flu do that? Since 1918 anyway?
No I am not panicking. But I am prepared to spend a few weeks inside the doors of my house when such is needed.
Yeah, maybe the authorities just might have cause for concern.
Maybe that many will die in NYC alone. Those snowflakes are also bent on destroying Florida. Sometimes the Interstate Commerce Clause isn't so good...a slight flaw in the Constitution???
This disease is going to kill a lot of poor folks in violent areas like Baltimore, Ferguson, S.E. LA, Oakland, Minneapolis, and Detroit
what the hell are you talking about, Minneapolis has some of the best hospitals in the entire country.
I used to live right by North Memorial.
They also have a big population of Somalis who don't wash and have extremely poor habits. New York has some of the best hospitals in the nation. But they have spreaders. Haitians working in Flushing that work in the big mansions of the blue elites in Long Island. You will notice that they are the spreaders.
Mardi Gras nailed Louisiana.
New Yorkers are spreading it up and down the coast.
In the USA, Wednesday there were 1000 dead. Saturday night it hit 2000. Might be something to be concerned about.
I'm more concerned about our economy at this point by a wide margin. Gonna be a long cold summer if this drags out another 6 weeks or more, which I think it will. I'm betting [bleep] gets way worse, Biden gets elected And a week later it's over.
Jack,
It took China 62 days to turn the corner. We are at day 40.
1. if you believe China 2. if we are willing to do what China did (assuming they were even successful)
Even if I don't believe the Chinese, Japanese, Korea, Singapore, I believe them.
In the USA, Wednesday there were 1000 dead. Saturday night it hit 2000. Might be something to be concerned about.
I'm more concerned about our economy at this point by a wide margin. Gonna be a long cold summer if this drags out another 6 weeks or more, which I think it will. I'm betting [bleep] gets way worse, Biden gets elected And a week later it's over.
Jack,
It took China 62 days to turn the corner. We are at day 40.
1. if you believe China 2. if we are willing to do what China did (assuming they were even successful)
It is six weeks too late to even think of doing what china did. China quarantined at gun point, a small region of the nation and held the contagion within that region.
This virus is in every region of our nation coast to coast, through Canada and South into Mexico.
I'm calling BS on this.As I'm writing this 35,563 have die worldwide.The world population is 7.8 billion.The odds of dying really are not that great.These confirmed cases are another issue.Some people test positive and have no symptoms.It could be false positives or they could be carriers with no symptoms.Just keep in mind there,there are people all over the world,including some in this Country that would love to see President Trump removed from office and our economy collapse. President Trump is not a Globalist.Globalist hate a strong America.They feel it unfair to them.He is not for giving American taxpayer dollars away all over the world so people can get rich by stealing our money through their dirty little deals at the same time driving up our debt.He's for America First like it should be.I hope like hell we beat this virus and I hope like hell he get re-elcted for another term.You will see an America like most of y'all have never known.An America where just about everything you buy has Made In The USA on it.I saw those manufacturing jobs rapidly leaving our country in the 1970's,I think this event proves to us we need a lot of those jobs back.Here is a good link I found on tracking this virus.It is highly contagious,but the medical people are finding out more and more your best overall defense is still,keep your hands washed,don't touch your mouth,nose and eyes and there is a very good change you will not get the virus. https://www.theepochtimes.com/ccp-virus
They are selling death doom and destruction... politicians and media world wide..
its all about the shock factor.. control of the public and what little freedoms we think we have..
terror gets attention...
100 to 200,000 Americans will die this year of something.... exactly as Mad Mooner says...
heck, I am waiting for people like our stupid Queen/Governor, to start blaming traffic accident deaths on the drivers and passengers died because they had the corona virus...
So if someone has lung cancer, heart disease and has lost several limbs to diabetic and contracts COVID-19, is it really a "Corona Death"?
How we count does matter.
On that note, here is a factoid I picked up from a New Orleans news station:
Quote
Out of all COVID related deaths in Louisiana, only 5-percent were patients without preexisting health conditions. 41-percent had diabetes, 31-percent had chronic kidney disease and 28-percent were obese.
So if someone has lung cancer, heart disease and has lost several limbs to diabetic and contracts COVID-19, is it really a "Corona Death"?
How we count does matter.
On that note, here is a factoid I picked up from a New Orleans news station:
Quote
Out of all COVID related deaths in Louisiana, only 5-percent were patients without preexisting health conditions. 41-percent had diabetes, 31-percent had chronic kidney disease and 28-percent were obese.
No, the intelligent question is, "How long until we have all been exposed and either get sick, or not. Either die or not."
That is when this will be over. I have been saying for about three weeks, that will be July 4. But infection and death rates are climbing much faster than was ever predicted three weeks ago. We might be able to move that date forward a couple or three weeks.
No one EVER claimed ALL would die. The worst projections have been one to two percent of the population.
It is a bell curve, not an exponential graph into infinity.
It will be another 60-90 days before this starts to really tail off quickly & a lot more people in the U.S. are very likely to die, how many, I don't know, especially in the really uncontrolled areas as already mentioned on both the east & west coasts with lots of non-while immigrants.
They are the biggest offenders among the spreaders.
Maybe even in Florida as well, surely Detroit & Chicago, Philly, possibly Texas.
If the potential meds that help or minimize the effect could be dispersed & given to the masses faster, it could really help. shouldn't be that hard, but it's a political football right now.
Whatever the real trajectory or situation is come November, whoever is elected will have no more influence on it than anyone else, but the reporting might change................what won't be affected is the real number of actual deaths.
In the USA, Wednesday there were 1000 dead. Saturday night it hit 2000. Might be something to be concerned about.
This is my take too.
I started watching the #s when they said infection rates and/or death toll would double every 4 days. We were at 200 dead then. That has since changed to roughly every 3 days.
Most here can do the math...
Are you predicting 4000 more dead in three days, and another 8000 more by this Saturday?
I wasn't predicting anything, merely observing.
You, however, are one of the reasons I began the last sentence with most...
We don't know where or how far this pandemic will go. It may die out or it could be catastrophic. We do need to take precautions (as described in the CDC guidelines) and we may be able to slow or contain its spread.
The predictive models are all over the place and depend on the assumptions made; we do need to prepare for the worst. We knew it was possible that the virus might become a pandemic by January 1 and we lost over 2 months before the alarm bell rang. We need to do all we can now with precautions and research to reduce the severity of the pandemic.
Faucci is a political animal who really doesn't know his azz from a hole in the ground & is badly out of touch with everyday reality & anything resembling hands on medicine.
Right now any number is a pure fantasy, high or low.
MM
He graduated from Cornell Medical College first in his class. He's received quite a bit of recognition for his professional achievements. He is regularly receiving information from the finest immunologists and epidemologists in the world. His prediction of up to 200,000 fatalities is consistent with what other experts have said and continue to say. I'd much rather know the worst case scenario than have someone blow smoke up my ass. What are your qualifications?
Faucci is a political animal who really doesn't know his azz from a hole in the ground & is badly out of touch with everyday reality & anything resembling hands on medicine.
Right now any number is a pure fantasy, high or low.
No, the intelligent question is, "How long until we have all been exposed and either get sick, or not. Either die or not."
That is when this will be over. I have been saying for about three weeks, that will be July 4. But infection and death rates are climbing much faster than was ever predicted three weeks ago. We might be able to move that date forward a couple or three weeks.
No one EVER claimed ALL would die. The worst projections have been one to two percent of the population.
It is a bell curve, not an exponential graph into infinity.
I've been prepared for years, that's why I'm not panicking.
I'll just say this: lots of Fauci bashing going on by non-medical professionals. Our resident thought leaders on all things medical who have degrees in their medical area of expertise don't seem to be joining in on this thread. That in itself should tell you something. I encourage you to read DocRockets thread "The science isn't settled yet" or Etoh's contributions. Good information there.
I'll just say this: lots of Fauci bashing going on by non-medical professionals. Our resident thought leaders on all things medical who have degrees in their medical area of expertise don't seem to be joining in on this thread. That in itself should tell you something. I encourage you to read DocRockets thread "The science isn't settled yet" or Etoh's contributions. Good information there.
Unfortunately, there are more than a few on this forum with a proclivity for idiotically rejecting scientific evidence when it doesn't comport with their ideological predilections.
I'll just say this: lots of Fauci bashing going on by non-medical professionals. Our resident thought leaders on all things medical who have degrees in their medical area of expertise don't seem to be joining in on this thread. That in itself should tell you something. I encourage you to read DocRockets thread "The science isn't settled yet" or Etoh's contributions. Good information there.
Unfortunately, there are more than a few on this forum with a proclivity for idiotically rejecting scientific evidence when it doesn't comport with their ideological predilections.
I'll just say this: lots of Fauci bashing going on by non-medical professionals. Our resident thought leaders on all things medical who have degrees in their medical area of expertise don't seem to be joining in on this thread. That in itself should tell you something. I encourage you to read DocRockets thread "The science isn't settled yet" or Etoh's contributions. Good information there.
Unfortunately, there are more than a few on this forum with a proclivity for idiotically rejecting scientific evidence when it doesn't comport with their ideological predilections.
I'll just say this: lots of Fauci bashing going on by non-medical professionals. Our resident thought leaders on all things medical who have degrees in their medical area of expertise don't seem to be joining in on this thread. That in itself should tell you something. I encourage you to read DocRockets thread "The science isn't settled yet" or Etoh's contributions. Good information there.
Unfortunately, there are more than a few on this forum with a proclivity for idiotically rejecting scientific evidence when it doesn't comport with their ideological predilections.
Pot, meet kettle.
You're referring to evolution of course, but you're the pot and the kettle, truth be told.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), there were 2,813,503 registered deaths in the United States in 2017. So for his prediction to become true the death rate in the USA would have increase between 3-1/2% to 7%
That's a lot to be sure, so I am somewhat doubtful.
If we look at the deaths of Americans in any given year we find to no ones surprise, that the large majority are over the age of 65 and over 25% are over 80. So if Kung-Flu infects a 85 year old woman who is in the decline of health the "news" will tell us all that she died from Covid19. Well.............that is certainly not helping her, but can we really say that's the killer? How about 85 years of wear on her old fragile body? Don't you think that may have had something to do with it too?
It can be said that most people who die have cloths on. Does that mean cloths are killing people? No, I think all would agree that while those 2 things do over lap, but are not connected.
How about any kind of failing health? If older folks die and they have anything wrong at all we can blame what was wrong for their death, but we need to ask how many people die in perfect health? Some do. They die in car crashes and from many things that can kill us, but for those dying in homes or at hospitals it's safe to say most are not "dying healthy". Those in the decline of life nearly all have chronic something. And the "news" want us all to believe Covid19 is the new mass killer of the age. So the only thing I KNOW for CERTAIN is that the mainstream media are CHRONIC LIARS and never tell the truth without any spin on the story ------------and I do mean NEVER!.
So because the body count grows (as it does every year, to the count of about 2,800,000 by the end of every year) it still doesn't mean 200,000 more will die from Kung-Flu. I am betting 90% of those numbers were dying and Kung Flu jumped on to their already compromised immune system.
So death from Covid19 must be reported in the way that breaks down the death tolls. How many died from Covid19 who were very healthy before they contracted the virus? That's the only number that truly matters to show how bad the disease actually is.
To hear the way the "news" seems to report this outbreak, if someone has Kung-Flu and is driving home, when he wipes out his car and falls off a bridge into rocks 100 feet below and explodes in flames only to have a pack of wolves attack him as he fights the flames off his body, and then a gang of Jihadies machine gun him---------- they will say he died of Covid19. They can prove he had the Kung-Flu and now he's dead, -------------------------------------so that fits the narrative they are pushing today.
I say don't be stupid and take it seriously enough to wash your hands as often as you can and don't touch your face even if you have to wear a bandanna to remind yourself. But to treat this as the end of the world and justify that mindset from what the media says is idiotic. We all have beliefs as to how bad it is or could be, but we all KNOW the media are outright liars. That last fact is the one to measure everything else against.
No, the intelligent question is, "How long until we have all been exposed and either get sick, or not. Either die or not."
That is when this will be over. I have been saying for about three weeks, that will be July 4. But infection and death rates are climbing much faster than was ever predicted three weeks ago. We might be able to move that date forward a couple or three weeks.
No one EVER claimed ALL would die. The worst projections have been one to two percent of the population.
It is a bell curve, not an exponential graph into infinity.
I've been prepared for years, that's why I'm not panicking.
I am glad to hear you are well stocked with toilet paper.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), there were 2,813,503 registered deaths in the United States in 2017. So for his prediction to become true the death rate in the USA would have increase between 3-1/2% to 7%
That's a lot to be sure, so I am somewhat doubtful.
If we look at the deaths of Americans in any given year we find to no ones surprise, that the large majority are over the age of 65 and over 25% are over 80. So if Kung-Flu infects a 85 year old woman who is in the decline of health the "news" will tell us all that she died from Covid19. Well.............that is certainly not helping her, but can we really say that's the killer? How about 85 years of wear on her old fragile body? Don't you think that may have had something to do with it too?
It can be said that most people who die have cloths on. Does that mean cloths are killing people? No, I think all would agree that while those 2 things do over lap, but are not connected.
How about any kind of failing health? If older folks die and they have anything wrong at all we can blame what was wrong for their death, but we need to ask how many people die in perfect health? Some do. They die in car crashes and from many things that can kill us, but for those dying in homes or at hospitals it's safe to say most are not "dying healthy". Those in the decline of life nearly all have chronic something. And the "news" want us all to believe Covid19 is the new mass killer of the age. So the only thing I KNOW for CERTAIN is that the mainstream media are CHRONIC LIARS and never tell the truth without any spin on the story ------------and I do mean NEVER!.
So because the body count grows (as it does every year, to the count of about 2,800,000 by the end of every year) it still doesn't mean 200,000 more will die from Kung-Flu. I am betting 90% of those numbers were dying and Kung Flu jumped on to their already compromised immune system.
So death from Covid19 must be reported in the way that breaks down the death tolls. How many died from Covid19 who were very healthy before they contracted the virus? That's the only number that truly matters to show how bad the disease actually is.
To hear the way the "news" seems to report this outbreak, if someone has Kung-Flu and is driving home, when he wipes out his car and falls off a bridge into rocks 100 feet below and explodes in flames only to have a pack of wolves attack him as he fights the flames off his body, and then a gang of Jihadies machine gun him---------- they will say he died of Covid19. They can prove he had the Kung-Flu and now he's dead, -------------------------------------so that fits the narrative they are pushing today.
I say don't be stupid and take it seriously enough to wash your hands as often as you can and don't touch your face even if you have to wear a bandanna to remind yourself. But to treat this as the end of the world and justify that mindset from what the media says is idiotic. We all have beliefs as to how bad it is or could be, but we all KNOW the media are outright liars. That last fact is the one to measure everything else against.
They’ve been calculating mass shootings for years now using similar criteria.
I'll tell Momma you are first in line. But I have less than 10,000. Hardly worth the effort to come get them. And some of them are POS Win large pistol.
I'll tell Momma you are first in line. But I have less than 10,000. Hardly worth the effort to come get them. And some of them are POS Win large pistol.
Twenty five or so years ago I thought something was bound to happen that would be devastating to our way of life. About then I started reading books on survival, mostly rural living and self dependency. I live in the mountains around 6500 feet, small city 10 miles away.
I'm pretty much off the grid, I don't have solar for the home but can deal with that if needed, the well is on solar and it has a 1500 gallon storage tank, I can tap that electrical system when needed. Elk and deer are abundant within walking distance. I'm good for over a year without any animals, so I could extend the time with hunting.
I'm more than willing to help my neighbors if they need it. I doubt if this go around will take millions of Americans out, but next time will be worse. Learn form this experience and get ready.
When my internet goes out, I'm gonna be bored out of my mind.
Faucci is a political animal who really doesn't know his azz from a hole in the ground & is badly out of touch with everyday reality & anything resembling hands on medicine.
Right now any number is a pure fantasy, high or low.
MM
He graduated from Cornell Medical College first in his class. He's received quite a bit of recognition for his professional achievements. He is regularly receiving information from the finest immunologists and epidemologists in the world. His prediction of up to 200,000 fatalities is consistent with what other experts have said and continue to say. I'd much rather know the worst case scenario than have someone blow smoke up my ass. What are your qualifications?
I'll repeat what I said; he's 80 years old, an administrator & a political animal with very left Hitlery fan) leanings.
He is not in the mainstream of hands on medical or lab work; go get some of the people actually doing the lab work & analysis..........they will be current, accurate & far more believable than Fauci.
What he done in the past is in the past, it what he actually doing or not doing right now that matters.
Twenty five or so years ago I thought something was bound to happen that would be devastating to our way of life. About then I started reading books on survival, mostly rural living and self dependency. I live in the mountains around 6500 feet, small city 10 miles away.
I'm pretty much off the grid, I don't have solar for the home but can deal with that if needed, the well is on solar and it has a 1500 gallon storage tank, I can tap that electrical system when needed. Elk and deer are abundant within walking distance. I'm good for over a year without any animals, so I could extend the time with hunting.
I'm more than willing to help my neighbors if they need it. I doubt if this go around will take millions of Americans out, but next time will be worse. Learn form this experience and get ready.
When my internet goes out, I'm gonna be bored out of my mind.
buy a large type bible. plenty of reading for years and large type for older eyes and lower light.
Twenty five or so years ago I thought something was bound to happen that would be devastating to our way of life. About then I started reading books on survival, mostly rural living and self dependency. I live in the mountains around 6500 feet, small city 10 miles away.
I'm pretty much off the grid, I don't have solar for the home but can deal with that if needed, the well is on solar and it has a 1500 gallon storage tank, I can tap that electrical system when needed. Elk and deer are abundant within walking distance. I'm good for over a year without any animals, so I could extend the time with hunting.
I'm more than willing to help my neighbors if they need it. I doubt if this go around will take millions of Americans out, but next time will be worse. Learn form this experience and get ready.
When my internet goes out, I'm gonna be bored out of my mind.
buy a large type bible. plenty of reading for years and large type for older eyes and lower light.
I’m holding out hope that by the time I come out of Irfubar’s bunker a vaccine will be available.
PS
Needing a new batch of hookers, running low on blow and Red Bull as mixer....Send more ASAP.
😎
Piss off! I never got no invite......
You are one of the reasons we are in the bunker...... how is your covid coming along?
Spreading rapidly!
Ok Jim, you can hang out in the bunker.... if you will provide Beav with varmint shootin opportunities.... he loves that chit and is a stone cold killer
No, the intelligent question is, "How long until we have all been exposed and either get sick, or not. Either die or not."
That is when this will be over. I have been saying for about three weeks, that will be July 4. But infection and death rates are climbing much faster than was ever predicted three weeks ago. We might be able to move that date forward a couple or three weeks.
No one EVER claimed ALL would die. The worst projections have been one to two percent of the population.
It is a bell curve, not an exponential graph into infinity.
I've been prepared for years, that's why I'm not panicking.
I am glad to hear you are well stocked with toilet paper.
It took China 62 days to turn the corner. We are at day 40.
China took 62 days to stop reporting, no corner was ever turned.
Listen to the earnings calls from U.S companies with a large Chinese presence, Apple, Nike, Starbux, Yum Brands, etc. Apple's back to work, same for Nike. These are observable, measurable events and this data's not coming from the Chinese government, but U.S. companies responsible to U.S shareholders and accountable to U.S courts.
Just because we don't trust the Chinese Government, that doesn't mean there are not other ways to get at the data.
60,000 Americans die from the flu every year. About 40,000 die in car accidents, 20,000 die in homocides and 60,000 die from suicide. Meanwhile, 600,000 die from cancer and 650,000 die from heart disease every year.
I think if those numbers were mentioned alongside any projected COVID-19 death rates, it would cause us all to settle down a bit.
But the issue is that deaths from the virus could be in addition to those figures. It isn't a trade off.
True, these are big numbers and they represent, at least in part, additional deaths, BUT if you look at the probability of any one individual dying from COVID-19 out of a total population of 330,000,000 it is still less than 1%. That's not to say that each death isn't a tragedy for the deceased's family and friends.
In round numbers the probability of a random individual dying from COVID-19 looks something like this, assuming that I got the numbers and division right.
200,000 out of 330,000,000
600 out of every 1,000,000
60 out of every 100,000
6 out of every 10,000
1 out of every 1,650
What I don't understand is how a densely packed country like China could have so many fewer cases and deaths.
At this rate, the NYC metro area with 20,100,000 residents could see a death toll from COVID-19 of around 12,000. I wonder how many people die in the NYC metro area on an average day from anything/everything other than COVID-19?
I think we will have to compare the death rate over the period, per 100K people, over the average. An uptick might be valid CV19 effect.Lot's of people already at death's door, who wouldn't make it another year regardless.
Right, but they will be counted as Corona Virus deaths with no mention that strangely the deaths from other causes are down for the same period.
In 2018, a total of 2,839,205 resident deaths were registered in the United States—25,702 more deaths than in 2017. From 2017 to 2018, the age-adjusted death rate for the total population decreased 1.1%, and life expectancy at birth increased 0.1 year. Age-specific death rates between 2017 and 2018 decreased for age groups 15–24, 25–34, 45–54, 65–74, 75–84, and 85 and over.
Living in NY, I'm watching the local news and they are turning Aquaduct Racetrack facilities into a temporary hospital. Dr.s and nurses are working around the clock. Retired Drs and medical students are being asked to pitch in. My son works for a medical college and many of the students are volunteering their time. My niece is a nurse who was working as a nursing teacher and was asked to help out at the hospital. My sister is making surgical masks. We have over 1,000 dead here in just the past 10 days. People, this is no joke. Even here I'm seeing people much too close and not observing distancing protocols. Also, this is not just killing the old with other medical conditions, otherwise healthy young people have died from it. This is NOT like the regular flu as this thing hits an area hard and all at once. The bodies pile up quickly and it takes resources away from people who might need assistance/care for other medical issues. If people don't take every measure to prevent getting infected, the numbers could easily reach the projected numbers. It's like what Dirty Harry said, "Do you feel lucky punk?"
Simple math, if nothing was done, the death toll would be like a flu season. about 35,000 at 0.1% rate, COVOD-19 kills at a rate of 0.6% so 6x 35,000= 210,000. The 0.6% is from South Korea , other countries report higher rates.
It took China 62 days to turn the corner. We are at day 40.
China took 62 days to stop reporting, no corner was ever turned.
I do not have a problem believing China stopped their epidemic with their military enforced quarantine.
If we had put a wall around Seattle and NYC and shot anyone trying to get out on Feb 10, we would have ours close to containment also.
But that is not the way we do things here. Thank God!
I am sure China will eventually have to deal with infection sources crossing their borders into new areas in the near future. The rest of China will eventually be as affected as Wuhan was.
Living in NY, I'm watching the local news and they are turning Aquaduct Racetrack facilities into a temporary hospital. Dr.s and nurses are working around the clock. Retired Drs and medical students are being asked to pitch in. My son works for a medical college and many of the students are volunteering their time. My niece is a nurse who was working as a nursing teacher and was asked to help out at the hospital. My sister is making surgical masks. We have over 1,000 dead here in just the past 10 days. People, this is no joke. Even here I'm seeing people much too close and not observing distancing protocols. Also, this is not just killing the old with other medical conditions, otherwise healthy young people have died from it. This is NOT like the regular flu as this thing hits an area hard and all at once. The bodies pile up quickly and it takes resources away from people who might need assistance/care for other medical issues. If people don't take every measure to prevent getting infected, the numbers could easily reach the projected numbers. It's like what Dirty Harry said, "Do you feel lucky punk?"
Good luck, hang in there. Many here will just dismiss what you're saying cause it's not relevant to their lives.
Living in NY, I'm watching the local news and they are turning Aquaduct Racetrack facilities into a temporary hospital. Dr.s and nurses are working around the clock. Retired Drs and medical students are being asked to pitch in. My son works for a medical college and many of the students are volunteering their time. My niece is a nurse who was working as a nursing teacher and was asked to help out at the hospital. My sister is making surgical masks. We have over 1,000 dead here in just the past 10 days. People, this is no joke. Even here I'm seeing people much too close and not observing distancing protocols. Also, this is not just killing the old with other medical conditions, otherwise healthy young people have died from it. This is NOT like the regular flu as this thing hits an area hard and all at once. The bodies pile up quickly and it takes resources away from people who might need assistance/care for other medical issues. If people don't take every measure to prevent getting infected, the numbers could easily reach the projected numbers. It's like what Dirty Harry said, "Do you feel lucky punk?"
Simple math, if nothing was done, the death toll would be like a flu season. about 35,000 at 0.1% rate, COVOD-19 kills at a rate of 0.6% so 6x 35,000= 210,000. The 0.6% is from South Korea , other countries report higher rates.
Living in NY, I'm watching the local news and they are turning Aquaduct Racetrack facilities into a temporary hospital. Dr.s and nurses are working around the clock. Retired Drs and medical students are being asked to pitch in. My son works for a medical college and many of the students are volunteering their time. My niece is a nurse who was working as a nursing teacher and was asked to help out at the hospital. My sister is making surgical masks. We have over 1,000 dead here in just the past 10 days. People, this is no joke. Even here I'm seeing people much too close and not observing distancing protocols. Also, this is not just killing the old with other medical conditions, otherwise healthy young people have died from it. This is NOT like the regular flu as this thing hits an area hard and all at once. The bodies pile up quickly and it takes resources away from people who might need assistance/care for other medical issues. If people don't take every measure to prevent getting infected, the numbers could easily reach the projected numbers. It's like what Dirty Harry said, "Do you feel lucky punk?"
Truly awful. Stay safe and be smart.
^^^This.^^^
I'm not a God bless kind of guy, but God bless you all.
I'm reading through this thread, and here is the way I see it. 200,000 deaths in 10 months is not bad, I agree. However, it all depends on your perspective.
First off, let me explain that I'm in Cincinnati. So far, we're relatively untouched by the virus; I'm working from home; my wife has suspended her massage practice. We're hunkering down. Kroger delivers groceries once a week. We supplement that with carryout. My mother is 91 and hasn't seen me in 2 weeks, even though I'm less than 2 miles away. The facility she's in is quarantined. KYHillChick had cancer surgery a little less than 2 years ago. We both have asthma. We are both over 60 I've got a history of diabetes and pneumonia.
Right now, there are 289 ICU beds in the county. There are 180,000 folks over the age of 60. If we get the virus, my wife and I will be competing with 622 potential patients for our ICU bed. I doubt they'll even worry about treating my mom. That puts the number down to 179,999. We're a stone's throw away from Pill Hill, a 2 sq mi section of Cincinnati where there are more hospital beds than anywhere else on the planet. However, if the S ever hits the everloving F they'll be all full up and the doctors and nurses will be just dragging bodies out to the reefer trucks parked in the lot. "Flattening the curve" has a real palpable meaning around here.
If we withdraw to the farm, the outlook might be cheerier; Bracken County, KY has 0 cases reported. However, it won't be long before they start showing up. All the counties in proximity to Greater Cincinnati have active cases and there's 1 death reported in Kenton County, KY, less that 50 miles away. There are no hospital beds within 30 miles of the farm. We'd be trucked to a little facility in Cynthiana or taken into Cincinnati.
If all goes well, those 289 beds get used efficiently, and nobody is left out in the hall on a gurney. If it doesn't go well, they'll be stacking KYHillChick and I along with all the others like cordwood.
Numbers from “Experts” are all over the map on this stuff
From 3.5 Million Americans will die to 100 to 200K now.
Who do we believe???
I believe if you do some research you'll find that those numbers are, at least, somewhat tied to the extent of the measres taken to reduce or control interpersonal contact. No societal counter measures taken and those higher numbers may well prove tragically accurate. We have no way of knowing until it's over. Far better to err on the side of caution. To me, extreme caution is preferred, lives are at stake. This thing is REAL. DON'T MAKE LITE OF IT! DON'T TAKE UNNECESSARY RISKS! I've been down for a week with what may be covid 19. High fever, sore throat mild to moderate breathing difficulties, severe cough,etc. Been to the docs and hospital ER a couple of times. They examine me but won't test unless I'm critical enough to admit as they don't have enough kits to meet current needs. Get sent home told to self quarenteen and y'all come back now if you get worse. SUCKS! On the bright side my cough has very considerably improved and my temps have been normal since Saturday afternoon.
Fauci warns 100–200K Americans could die from virus, but says projections are “moving target” - Axios
“Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on CNN's "State of the Union" Sunday that models suggest the coronavirus will infect millions of Americans and could kill 100,000–200,000, though he stressed that the projections are "such a moving target." Why it matters: Fauci has been the coronavirus task force's most outspoken advocate for emergency social distancing measures to stop the spread of the coronavirus, sometimes contradicting President Trump's more optimistic outlook.”
Now the president is hoping for ONLY 100,000 deaths.
You guys gotta keep moving the goalposts. Many of you would do well to panic, if that would keep you inside and isolated.
The year total will be double for the US? approx. 8 million lost this year is your simple math prediction(around the 2.8 million normally plus the 4.8 million for covid).
The thing about statistical models is that they are only as good as the data that goes into them. Considering the data in this case changes so fast, the “reports” are old news before they’re printed.
60,000 Americans die from the flu every year. About 40,000 die in car accidents, 20,000 die in homocides and 60,000 die from suicide. Meanwhile, 600,000 die from cancer and 650,000 die from heart disease every year.
I think if those numbers were mentioned alongside any projected COVID-19 death rates, it would cause us all to settle down a bit.
Great context. Thanks for posting that.
Nobody knows what the final death tally will be, and nobody is claiming to know. Fauci put out a possible worst-case scenario estimate, is all. This shouldn't be more than a passing blip on anyone's radar.
In the USA, Wednesday there were 1000 dead. Saturday night it hit 2000. Might be something to be concerned about.
I'm more concerned about our economy at this point by a wide margin. Gonna be a long cold summer if this drags out another 6 weeks or more, which I think it will. I'm betting [bleep] gets way worse, Biden gets elected And a week later it's over.
I got one better for you. After Biden is elected, all of the liberals living in the densely populated cities are now able to work from home and realize its allot safer to live out in the country and there is a mass exodus of liberals into the rural areas and all those red states turn blue.
60,000 Americans die from the flu every year. About 40,000 die in car accidents, 20,000 die in homocides and 60,000 die from suicide. Meanwhile, 600,000 die from cancer and 650,000 die from heart disease every year.
I think if those numbers were mentioned alongside any projected COVID-19 death rates, it would cause us all to settle down a bit.
Great context. Thanks for posting that.
Nobody knows what the final death tally will be, and nobody is claiming to know. Fauci put out a possible worst-case scenario estimate, is all. This shouldn't be more than a passing blip on anyone's radar.
Thanks Doc for offering your perspective and thoughts! It’s comforting to hear from someone with your experience and knowledge and a voice of reason amidst all this damn chaos.
In the USA, Wednesday there were 1000 dead. Saturday night it hit 2000. Might be something to be concerned about.
I'm more concerned about our economy at this point by a wide margin. Gonna be a long cold summer if this drags out another 6 weeks or more, which I think it will. I'm betting [bleep] gets way worse, Biden gets elected And a week later it's over.
I got one better for you. After Biden is elected, all of the liberals living in the densely populated cities are now able to work from home and realize its allot safer to live out in the country and there is a mass exodus of liberals into the rural areas and all those red states turn blue.
Trump said this morning that if “Sleeping Joe” was President that he wouldn’t have a Fuqking clue about what was going on. Of course, I’m paraphrasing. 😜
THe topic/question is IN the US and not the rest of the world. Numbers for the US are accurate.
You are saying 4.8 million Americans will die from Covid?
That thought is asinine and irresponsible.
It's really not that simple. The numbers are incomplete due to lack of testing and presentation. Any 'simple math' prediction model is incomplete and flawed at this time. The number of cases is unknown, as is the cause of death - any respiratory distress will be COVID to fit the panic narrative.
The death rate is also a function of the number of ICU beds per 100,000, Germany has 34, Italy has 8. It's not just the beds, but the number of highly trained ICU nurses, as well . That is why flattening the curve is so important. It will not decrease the total number of cases, only spread them out over time. Any reloader will understand that. Area under the curve. We as a society will get through this, look at the % numbers of the Spanish Flu, which came from Kanas BTW. Though many of us old pharts might not, we may not rate an ICU bed. If after 18 month I'm still around, the Good Lord is still willing to give me time to repent.
Fauci warns 100–200K Americans could die from virus, but says projections are “moving target” - Axios
“Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on CNN's "State of the Union" Sunday that models suggest the coronavirus will infect millions of Americans and could kill 100,000–200,000, though he stressed that the projections are "such a moving target." Why it matters: Fauci has been the coronavirus task force's most outspoken advocate for emergency social distancing measures to stop the spread of the coronavirus, sometimes contradicting President Trump's more optimistic outlook.”
Isn't this what Trump said today? Who you going to believe?
The thing about statistical models is that they are only as good as the data that goes into them. Considering the data in this case changes so fast, the “reports” are old news before they’re printed.
The U.S. hit another one of several grim and sad milestones today: Health officials announced the 3,000th coronavirus-related death in the country, with about 900 from New York City alone, according to data from Johns Hopkins University....
We need to do our part in flattening the curve and by following all CDC, WHO and State and Local Health Officer guidelines.
Well, don't know how it will pan out, but there is this...
Spanish flu from January 1918 to December 1920, it infected 500 million people—about one third of the world's population at the time. Number of deaths: 50,000,000. Deaths in US: 675,000.
Numbers from the Spanish Flu are hard to judge. They have ben revised by such simple things as counting grave stones. Estimates only, between 50 and 100 million. BTW the 675,000 are more than all the wars of the 20th century.
Well, I think worse case would be around 1% of the population...which would work out to about 3.3 million.
So 100K-200K seems somewhat conservative in my mind. Less that 1/10th of 1% of the population.
This. ^ We'll be very lucky to be between 100,000-200,000.
Wasting your time with many of these flat earthers. They will think differently if someone they love succumbs to this scourge. I hope that doesn't happen for any of us.
Fauci warns 100–200K Americans could die from virus, but says projections are “moving target” - Axios
“Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on CNN's "State of the Union" Sunday that models suggest the coronavirus will infect millions of Americans and could kill 100,000–200,000, though he stressed that the projections are "such a moving target." Why it matters: Fauci has been the coronavirus task force's most outspoken advocate for emergency social distancing measures to stop the spread of the coronavirus, sometimes contradicting President Trump's more optimistic outlook.”
............Watching the press conference today and the explanations of the graphs. The lines are going way up for NYC and Jersey (BAD NEWS) while the lines for the other 48 states are beginning to somewhat level out because of the reduction of cases......The 100K to 240K total USA deaths are based on up to date data, but does not mean that there will be that many deaths.
Italy now shows that they have past over the top of the curve and are on the downhill. So that is good news from Italy.
The hot spots gotta get over the top of the curve.
Not the whole population will get it. Estimates are 20-70% of 330mm. Take the median of 45% and that's 148.5mm. Assuming a 1% morltality, you're looking at 1.48mm dead. 100K-200K is us doing our part to social distance, wash our hands, and our outstanding medical care. People need to pay the fuuck attention. DJT just said the next couple weeks are going to be tough. Follow his order. Hunker down.
Chilnstructor: I think 600,000 (six hundred thousand) Americans died in the last "pandemic"? So this one may be that bad if strong measures aren't taken/found! Hope not. Hold into the wind VarmintGuy
President Trump's tax return be off by $.50, ministry o' propaganda'd be all over it like flies on Leroy Beans.
Clinton ass licker "Dr." Falsie and the other doc, whose husband works for the Clintons, and who herself formerly worked for the Clinton Foundation, come out, and says 100-200k, nobody blinks an eye.
Falsie won't reveal the methodology used to calculate his numbers, and "warns" everbody that he could "so easily be wrong and mislead people.”
Italy's over, and had less deaths than last year.
Washington State's over. Remember? Washington? Where everbody was gonna die a month age? Cept, dammit, they didn't.
Only thing growin exponentially in the US, is liberal stupidity about the cold virus.
% numbers are all over the place, from 5.6% Italy to .6% South Korea . Since even South Korea hasn't tested enough to get true number, it's hard to say. That .6% is 6X the average flu. The death toll will be over the whole event, likely 18 months.
Not the whole population will get it. Estimates are 20-70% of 330mm. Take the median of 45% and that's 148.5mm. Assuming a 1% morltality, you're looking at 1.48mm dead. 100K-200K is us doing our part to social distance, wash our hands, and our outstanding medical care. People need to pay the fuuck attention. DJT just said the next couple weeks are going to be tough. Follow his order. Hunker down.
The percentage that will get the covid is 60-80% based on the R factor. At that point there will be herd immunity. Most data suggests 60%. Certainly some areas will be closer to 80% due to high initial rate. Social distancing will be 60% At least that is what they teach in college because viral transmission in species is well studied.
That is supposed to lessen the illness. You won't get 100% as sick only 70% as sick. What if all it takes is 60% as sick to kill you? You're dead, that's what.
The United States, as a whole, is roughly two weeks away from reaching the peak of the coronavirus pandemic, but the peaks for individual states will vary, with most occurring over the next four weeks, according to projections from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
When it comes to the arrival of the coronavirus, not all states are facing the same timeline. Some states, like New York and Louisiana, have quickly become epicenters of the virus in the United States and, as a result, will reach a resource peak weeks sooner than states like Kentucky and Missouri, which are not expected to reach their highest demand until the second week of May. The various projections, based on peak hospital resource demand caused by the virus, could explain why some governors are taking more aggressive, imminent actions in their response to the pandemic.
Here are the projected peaks for all 50 states, plus D.C., per the IHME model. The model takes into consideration the number of beds needed, as well as ventilators.
New York, for example, is expected to hit its resource peak April 9. The current model, at the time of this publication, estimates a bed shortage of 60,610 and 9,055 ventilators needed. A state like Kentucky, however, is not expected to reach its peak until May 12. It shows the state having a surplus of beds and 288 ventilators needed.
Here is the resource peak for each state. Resource details can be found here:
Vermont: April 9 New York: April 9 New Jersey: April 9 Michigan: April 10 Connecticut: April 10 Louisiana: April 10 Idaho: April 12 Massachusetts: April 14 Iowa: April 15 Pennsylvania: April 15 Illinois: April 16 Oklahoma: April 17 Indiana: April 17 Colorado: April 17 Washington, DC: April 18 Rhode Island: April 19 Ohio: April 19 Delaware: April 20 Alabama: April 20 Arkansas: April 20 Nevada: April 20 Minnesota: April 21 Georgia: April 22 Mississippi: April 22 North Carolina: April 22 Arizona: April 24 South Carolina: April 24 Washington: April 24 Maine: April 25 Tennessee: April 26 California: April 26 Wisconsin: April 26 Utah: April 27 Kansas: April 28 New Hampshire: April 30 New Mexico: April 30 Alaska: April 30 Hawaii: April 30 Nebraska: April 30 Montana: April 30 West Virginia: May 1 North Dakota: May 1 South Dakota: May 1 Wyoming: May 1 Texas: May 2 Oregon: May 3 Florida: May 3 Missouri: May 11 Kentucky: May 12 Maryland: May 14 Virginia: May 17
The model shows April 14 as the peak for the United States as a whole. However, it notes that the projections are contingent on the continuation of “strong social distancing measures and other protective measures.”
President Trump officially extended the “Slow the Spread” coronavirus guidelines to April 30 during a press conference over the weekend.
“Nothing would be worse than declaring victory before the victory is won, that would be the greatest loss of all,” Trump, who had remained optimistic on reopening the economy on Easter, said during the press conference in the Rose Garden.
“The better you do the faster this whole nightmare will end, therefore we will extend our guidelines to April 30 to slow the spread,” he continued, predicting that the country will be “well on our way to recovering” by June 1.
President Trump's tax return be off by $.50, ministry o' propaganda'd be all over it like flies on Leroy Beans.
Clinton ass licker "Dr." Falsie and the other doc, whose husband works for the Clintons, and who herself formerly worked for the Clinton Foundation, come out, and says 100-200k, nobody blinks an eye.
Falsie won't reveal the methodology used to calculate his numbers, and "warns" everbody that he could "so easily be wrong and mislead people.”
Italy's over, and had less deaths than last year.
Washington State's over. Remember? Washington? Where everbody was gonna die a month age? Cept, dammit, they didn't.
Only thing growin exponentially in the US, is liberal stupidity about the cold virus.
I just got done working a 48 and covid is far from done in Washington. You’re a moron.
President Trump's tax return be off by $.50, ministry o' propaganda'd be all over it like flies on Leroy Beans.
Clinton ass licker "Dr." Falsie and the other doc, whose husband works for the Clintons, and who herself formerly worked for the Clinton Foundation, come out, and says 100-200k, nobody blinks an eye.
Falsie won't reveal the methodology used to calculate his numbers, and "warns" everbody that he could "so easily be wrong and mislead people.”
Italy's over, and had less deaths than last year.
Washington State's over. Remember? Washington? Where everbody was gonna die a month age? Cept, dammit, they didn't.
Only thing growin exponentially in the US, is liberal stupidity about the cold virus.
I just got done drinkin a 40 and covid is far from done in Washington. You’re a moron.
Youre right, my story is bullshit..just like how covid is the same as the cold and all your other genius conclusions about the situation. You’ve cracked the case....moron.
Youre right, my story is bullshit..just like how covid is the same as the cold and all your other genius conclusions about the situation. You’ve cracked the case....moron.
You should consult canada lefty before ya post.
He's got much more on the ball than you.
Makes a good spokesman for all the covtards on the fire, actually.
But, you're wastin your time here.
Be nationwide.
Go argue with the guy from Seattle who was just on the Tucker Carlson show, and said it was over in Washington State.
Also guys we gotta remember that many of these "new' cases added daily to each states totals are the result of more test availability, not necessarily the result of a new infection. These individuals may have been infected and had the virus for a few weeks. Also look at the ratios of positive vs negative test results(if the gloom and doom news media shows those in your area) most of the ones ive seen are around 1-2% postives of the test totals. When viewing these also remember that up till the present for the most part only those with Covid associated symptoms rate being tested, so they not showing 1-2% of total population being positive.
Youre right, my story is bullshit..just like how covid is the same as the cold and all your other genius conclusions about the situation. You’ve cracked the case....moron.
You should consult canada lefty before ya post.
He's got much more on the ball than you.
Makes a good spokesman for all the covtards on the fire, actually.
But, you're wastin your time here.
Be nationwide.
Go argue with the guy from Seattle who was just on the Tucker Carlson show, and said it was over in Washington State.
Is the MSM the cause of this or the beacon of truth to prove your point when it suits you? Can’t have it both ways...god I hope the most consequential decision you are allowed to make in a day is whether the roll feeds out the top or bottom
Your doc bud ask you to come in for giving blood? A lot has been said about a potential treatment using the plasma from those who kicked the vids ass...Curious if you’re on the short list to help.
Your doc bud ask you to come in for giving blood? A lot has been said about a potential treatment using the plasma from those who kicked the vids ass...Curious if you’re on the short list to help.
😎
Timely stupidity, simple10.
Local news came to the hospital today, 3 outta 4 wards empty, nobody dyin.
Your doc bud ask you to come in for giving blood? A lot has been said about a potential treatment using the plasma from those who kicked the vids ass...Curious if you’re on the short list to help.
😎
Timely stupidity, simple10.
Local news came to the hospital today, 3 outta 4 wards empty, nobody dyin.
Left draggin their tails.
Won't be reported.
Why such angst pilgrim?
Your town must be small like mine...Only one case reported, here, so far.
Too bad more people in the big cities don’t have your superior DNA to fight it.
You’re obviously a spectacular specimen of mental and physical health.
Nobody knows how many will die, its' all based on modeling. Models are totally influenced by the assumptions that are made and entered into the program. And, these assumptions are developed by people; experts, but still people making their best assumptions.
Among these assumptions are: - the success of the "social distancing" recommendations, - how many people wash or sanitize their hands regularly, - the age demographics of the population, - the assumed health of the population (including compromised immune systems), - the availability of medical personnel, including their catching the virus and not being available, - the availability of protective equipment for medical personnel, - The availability of respirators and ICU beds, - the timing of the development of a vaccine and how quickly it can be distributed, - etc., etc., etc.
Any variation in these assumptions will influence the model.
BTW, some are welcoming he arrival of the US Hospital Ships (Mercy and Comfort) in New York and Los Angeles. These 2 ships, each with a 1,000-bed hospital facility will help alleviate a critical shortage of hospital beds; however they are basically intended to treat severe wounds, not diseases. The 1,000 bed capacity may have to be reduced to accommodate the desired "social distancing".
And little is said about another valued capability of these hospital ships - their refrigerated space (aka, morgues). With civil morgue space in short supply, this capability will be welcomed.
Your doc bud ask you to come in for giving blood? A lot has been said about a potential treatment using the plasma from those who kicked the vids ass...Curious if you’re on the short list to help.
😎
Timely stupidity, simple10.
Local news came to the hospital today, 3 outta 4 wards empty, nobody dyin.
Left draggin their tails.
Won't be reported.
Why such angst pilgrim?
Your town must be small like mine...Only one case reported, here, so far.
Too bad more people in the big cities don’t have your superior DNA to fight it.
You’re obviously a spectacular specimen of mental and physical health.
🙄😎
Yes, the hospital is in a county of 3 people.
Don't wanna disturb your liberal cognitive dissonance.
News crew had been to 3 other hospitals first, tryin ta find one that looked busy.
Can't claim superior dna, most people don't even know they had it.
Keep postin tho. Your buddy canadian lefty needs friends like you.
I would guess the ships will be used to relieve local hospitals of traditional hospital services, heart attacks, trauma, CVA etc and not for covid. That’s a guess but would make sense to me as you pointed out, they aren’t set up with infections disease in mind so much.
One of the ER’s I was in last set has converted one wing to entirely covid treatment and one to “normal” er stuff. I bet they’d love to convert it all to covid if the had somewhere like that to send stuff to.
Fubarski, the only advice anyone should take seriously from you is what to use to wrap a crack pipe with to protect your hand from the heat...anything beyond that you’re over your head.
Fubarski, the only advice anyone should take seriously from you is what to use to wrap a crack pipe with to protect your hand from the heat...anything beyond that you’re over your head.
I could put my six year old on this keyboard and it still wouldn’t be a fair fight. And it wouldn’t surprise me if you are an expert in all things prison.
Your doc bud ask you to come in for giving blood? A lot has been said about a potential treatment using the plasma from those who kicked the vids ass...Curious if you’re on the short list to help.
😎
Timely stupidity, simple10.
Local news came to the hospital today, 3 outta 4 wards empty, nobody dyin.
Left draggin their tails.
Won't be reported.
Let's see: KCMO = Kansas City (MO) - no deaths in KC YET, but they will occur. Just hasn't fully slammed into KC yet.
Fubarski, the only advice anyone should take seriously from you is what to use to wrap a crack pipe with to protect your hand from the heat...anything beyond that you’re over your head.
That, and he wraps his superior dna in a Speedo while trolling the beaches for homeless boys wearing an open shirt, heavy gold chains and a fist full $1 bills....Joo rich!
Your doc bud ask you to come in for giving blood? A lot has been said about a potential treatment using the plasma from those who kicked the vids ass...Curious if you’re on the short list to help.
😎
Timely stupidity, simple10.
Local news came to the hospital today, 3 outta 4 wards empty, nobody dyin.
Left draggin their tails.
Won't be reported.
Let's see: KCMO = Kansas City (MO) - no deaths in KC YET, but they will occur. Just hasn't fully slammed into KC yet.
Right.
Nothin's happenin, but it *might* happen, so run and hide like the pussies you are.
Yes, I was hiding at work helping to treat them. You sitting in moms basement with your head buried up to your shoulder in your own fourth point of contact are definitely not a pussy.
Kansas City will undoubtably be left out of the global pandemic. The vast conspiracy between the media, executive branch and health care industry left it out cause they knew you were too wise to be fooled.
”In the U.S., all 50 states plus the District of Columbia have reported confirmed cases of COVID-19, tallying over 177,452 illnesses and at least 3,440 deaths.”
Of those, About 76,000 of those cases are in NY State Along with 1550 deaths there. New Jersey has 16,636 cases. With 198 deaths there. Most States have way below 50 deaths.
Another words nearly half the cases and half the deaths are in NY.
Will a lot more folks die in NY, and NJ ? Possibly.
I personally just can’t fathom it being that devastating to the rest of the Nation. CA, FL, LA, MI, WA, PA, IL, and MA may get hit a little harder than most states, but I’m sure hoping the rest of the Country with more rural populations will fare much better.
Sure, I could be VERY wrong. But so could most of the Experts and Fake News Media. Guess we will see. About 3 or 4 more weeks and we should see this peak and then drop off, and hopefully things will look much better. I plan to stay hopefully optimistic and not believe all the Doom and Gloomers for now.
Too bad you did not study in 7'th grade math class. Had you done your homework, you would know that all graphs of exponential growth start with one. This graph, over the course of 28 days is behaving exactly as predicted, and at some points in time, actually exceeding the predicted four day doubling rate. There is no cause to suspect it will not continue to double every four days for the next four weeks.
Too bad you did not study in 7'th grade math class. Had you done your homework, you would know that all graphs of exponential growth start with one. This graph, over the course of 28 days is behaving exactly as predicted, and at some points in time, actually exceeding the predicted four day doubling rate. There is no cause to suspect it will not continue to double every four days for the next four weeks.
Well yes, but its chicken feed. Do you know how many folks die of old age. Now that's scarey.
Yeah, this Corona crap is scarey too. It's not like smoking or drinking and driving or playing with snakes. People can do something about that to lower the risk factor.
Too bad you did not study in 7'th grade math class. Had you done your homework, you would know that all graphs of exponential growth start with one. This graph, over the course of 28 days is behaving exactly as predicted, and at some points in time, actually exceeding the predicted four day doubling rate. There is no cause to suspect it will not continue to double every four days for the next four weeks.
First, it was a 2 day rate, according to covtards, when the numbers were small.
Then, it was 3.
Now, it's 4.
Next, it'll be whatever bullshit number it takes to double.
The ministry of propaganda shat out a huge Covid turd of crap numbers about Covid.
You, k untston, simple10 and the other libs been elbowin each other outta the way ever since, to be the first ta eat the peanuts outta it.
You wanna live in fear, fine.
But shreddin the Constitution and tryin ta drag everbody else down with you is chickenshit.
Too bad you did not study in 7'th grade math class. Had you done your homework, you would know that all graphs of exponential growth start with one. This graph, over the course of 28 days is behaving exactly as predicted, and at some points in time, actually exceeding the predicted four day doubling rate. There is no cause to suspect it will not continue to double every four days for the next four weeks.
Well yes, but its chicken feed. Do you know how many folks die of old age. Now that's scarey.
Yeah, this Corona crap is scarey too. It's not like smoking or drinking and driving or playing with snakes. People can do something about that to lower the risk factor.
Too bad you did not study in 7'th grade math class. Had you done your homework, you would know that all graphs of exponential growth start with one. This graph, over the course of 28 days is behaving exactly as predicted, and at some points in time, actually exceeding the predicted four day doubling rate. There is no cause to suspect it will not continue to double every four days for the next four weeks.
Well yes, but its chicken feed. Do you know how many folks die of old age. Now that's scarey.
Yeah, this Corona crap is scarey too. It's not like smoking or drinking and driving or playing with snakes. People can do something about that to lower the risk factor.
Yes, I was hiding at work helping to treat them. You sitting in moms basement with your head buried up to your shoulder in your own fourth point of contact are definitely not a pussy.
Kansas City will undoubtably be left out of the global pandemic. The vast conspiracy between the media, executive branch and health care industry left it out cause they knew you were too wise to be fooled.
You're right, KCMO will be left out..............who the heck wants to go there anyway. Now that businesses are social distancing too, and holding online meetings, the boss can't even force folks to go there.
That spot in the near center of the US of A will be protected.
Too bad you did not study in 7'th grade math class. Had you done your homework, you would know that all graphs of exponential growth start with one. This graph, over the course of 28 days is behaving exactly as predicted, and at some points in time, actually exceeding the predicted four day doubling rate. There is no cause to suspect it will not continue to double every four days for the next four weeks.
First, it was a 2 day rate, according to covtards, when the numbers were small.
Then, it was 3.
Now, it's 4.
Next, it'll be whatever bullshit number it takes to double.
The ministry of propaganda shat out a huge Covid turd of crap numbers about Covid.
You, k untston, simple10 and the other libs been elbowin each other outta the way ever since, to be the first ta eat the peanuts outta it.
You wanna live in fear, fine.
But shreddin the Constitution and tryin ta drag everbody else down with you is chickenshit.
You continue to prove that you are an ignorant, hateful prick.
Too bad you did not study in 7'th grade math class. Had you done your homework, you would know that all graphs of exponential growth start with one. This graph, over the course of 28 days is behaving exactly as predicted, and at some points in time, actually exceeding the predicted four day doubling rate. There is no cause to suspect it will not continue to double every four days for the next four weeks.
First, it was a 2 day rate, according to covtards, when the numbers were small.
Then, it was 3.
Now, it's 4.
Next, it'll be whatever bullshit number it takes to double.
The ministry of propaganda shat out a huge Covid turd of crap numbers about Covid.
You, k untston, simple10 and the other libs been elbowin each other outta the way ever since, to be the first ta eat the peanuts outta it.
You wanna live in fear, fine.
But shreddin the Constitution and tryin ta drag everbody else down with you is chickenshit.
You continue to prove that you are an ignorant, hateful prick.
Too bad you did not study in 7'th grade math class. Had you done your homework, you would know that all graphs of exponential growth start with one. This graph, over the course of 28 days is behaving exactly as predicted, and at some points in time, actually exceeding the predicted four day doubling rate. There is no cause to suspect it will not continue to double every four days for the next four weeks.
Well yes, but its chicken feed. Do you know how many folks die of old age. Now that's scarey.
Yeah, this Corona crap is scarey too. It's not like smoking or drinking and driving or playing with snakes. People can do something about that to lower the risk factor.
Fubarski already had it, so he don't GAF.
Wouldn't GAF either way.
You pussies wanna live in fear, have at it.
You need to go on a hospital tour in Detroit. I'll fund your trip.
Really. You make the trip. I'll set up the tour. I'll pay your way, airfare, lodging, meals. There won't be a line item for PPE. You don't need it with your antibodies. I'll even agree to escrow the funds with Rick Bin, in full and upfront [I recognize the redundancy]. I know how you like to use him as your escrow agent.
Too bad you did not study in 7'th grade math class. Had you done your homework, you would know that all graphs of exponential growth start with one. This graph, over the course of 28 days is behaving exactly as predicted, and at some points in time, actually exceeding the predicted four day doubling rate. There is no cause to suspect it will not continue to double every four days for the next four weeks.
First, it was a 2 day rate, according to covtards, when the numbers were small.
Then, it was 3.
Now, it's 4.
Next, it'll be whatever bullshit number it takes to double.
The ministry of propaganda shat out a huge Covid turd of crap numbers about Covid.
You, k untston, simple10 and the other libs been elbowin each other outta the way ever since, to be the first ta eat the peanuts outta it.
You wanna live in fear, fine.
But shreddin the Constitution and tryin ta drag everbody else down with you is chickenshit.
Holy fuggin schitt. If I were one to partake, I would ask for some of what you are smoking, because I really do not believe alcohol could make one this ignorant.
The doubling rate of four days has been the standard from the time this schitt storm first hit Italy. We actually observed a doubling rate of three days over some time periods. But ALL projections have been made from that four day standard.
My post history is not hard to trace. It is a pretty simple matter for you to look back at my posts for the last three weeks. If you are sober enough to read and understand them.
Too bad you did not study in 7'th grade math class. Had you done your homework, you would know that all graphs of exponential growth start with one. This graph, over the course of 28 days is behaving exactly as predicted, and at some points in time, actually exceeding the predicted four day doubling rate. There is no cause to suspect it will not continue to double every four days for the next four weeks.
Well yes, but its chicken feed. Do you know how many folks die of old age. Now that's scarey.
Yeah, this Corona crap is scarey too. It's not like smoking or drinking and driving or playing with snakes. People can do something about that to lower the risk factor.
Fubarski already had it, so he don't GAF.
Wouldn't GAF either way.
You pussies wanna live in fear, have at it.
You need to go on a hospital tour in Detroit. I'll fund your trip.
Really. You make the trip. I'll set up the tour. I'll pay your way, airfare, lodging, meals. There won't be a line item for PPE. You don't need it with your antibodies. I'll even agree to escrow the funds with Rick Bin, in full and upfront [I recognize the redundancy]. I know how you like to use him as your escrow agent.
Too bad you did not study in 7'th grade math class. Had you done your homework, you would know that all graphs of exponential growth start with one. This graph, over the course of 28 days is behaving exactly as predicted, and at some points in time, actually exceeding the predicted four day doubling rate. There is no cause to suspect it will not continue to double every four days for the next four weeks.
First, it was a 2 day rate, according to covtards, when the numbers were small.
Then, it was 3.
Now, it's 4.
Next, it'll be whatever bullshit number it takes to double.
The ministry of propaganda shat out a huge Covid turd of crap numbers about Covid.
You, k untston, simple10 and the other libs been elbowin each other outta the way ever since, to be the first ta eat the peanuts outta it.
You wanna live in fear, fine.
But shreddin the Constitution and tryin ta drag everbody else down with you is chickenshit.
Holy fuggin schitt. If I were one to partake, I would ask for some of what you are smoking, because I really do not believe alcohol could make one this ignorant.
The doubling rate of four days has been the standard from the time this schitt storm first hit Italy. We actually observed a doubling rate of three days over some time periods. But ALL projections have been made from that four day standard.
My post history is not hard to trace. It is a pretty simple matter for you to look back at my posts for the last three weeks. If you are sober enough to read and understand them.
Too bad you did not study in 7'th grade math class. Had you done your homework, you would know that all graphs of exponential growth start with one. This graph, over the course of 28 days is behaving exactly as predicted, and at some points in time, actually exceeding the predicted four day doubling rate. There is no cause to suspect it will not continue to double every four days for the next four weeks.
Well yes, but its chicken feed. Do you know how many folks die of old age. Now that's scarey.
Yeah, this Corona crap is scarey too. It's not like smoking or drinking and driving or playing with snakes. People can do something about that to lower the risk factor.
Fubarski already had it, so he don't GAF.
Wouldn't GAF either way.
You pussies wanna live in fear, have at it.
You need to go on a hospital tour in Detroit. I'll fund your trip.
Really. You make the trip. I'll set up the tour. I'll pay your way, airfare, lodging, meals. There won't be a line item for PPE. You don't need it with your antibodies. I'll even agree to escrow the funds with Rick Bin, in full and upfront [I recognize the redundancy]. I know how you like to use him as your escrow agent.
Too bad you did not study in 7'th grade math class. Had you done your homework, you would know that all graphs of exponential growth start with one. This graph, over the course of 28 days is behaving exactly as predicted, and at some points in time, actually exceeding the predicted four day doubling rate. There is no cause to suspect it will not continue to double every four days for the next four weeks.
Well yes, but its chicken feed. Do you know how many folks die of old age. Now that's scarey.
Yeah, this Corona crap is scarey too. It's not like smoking or drinking and driving or playing with snakes. People can do something about that to lower the risk factor.
Fubarski already had it, so he don't GAF.
Wouldn't GAF either way.
You pussies wanna live in fear, have at it.
You need to go on a hospital tour in Detroit. I'll fund your trip.
Really. You make the trip. I'll set up the tour. I'll pay your way, airfare, lodging, meals. There won't be a line item for PPE. You don't need it with your antibodies. I'll even agree to escrow the funds with Rick Bin, in full and upfront [I recognize the redundancy]. I know how you like to use him as your escrow agent.
Just like a liberal.
Tryin ta buy the bowl, steada workin for it.
Not fair to the impecunious contestants.
You're gonna hafta post your way ta victory.
I aint buying it with other peoples money.
You ain't got no antibodies or education.
Execution sucks.
But your stamina, is impressive.
Your head's gonna beat a hole in that wall, any minute.
The predictions will change as more info of the virus becomes known and as various localities and states and even countries initiate various forms of control (social distancing)
The daily death chart on worldometer.com Is pretty telling. Daily deaths for the world on 2/28 was about 60. Today was over 4K. America is quickly catching up to Spain and Italy. We had our first death in my town last week. A healthy 44 year old father and husband.
basic-mathematics.com would seem to differ with your premise. Nothing in there mentions "small numbers don't mean shat".
If, what you're trying to say is that enough time hasn't elapsed to get a complete picture of what the final growth and decline curve of infection or death rates is, then say that.
It would seem that if a person wanted to they could solve the equation with the numbers of deaths to this point and they would very likely come up with an "x" that shows a rate of growth that is "exponential"...................by definition.
At the end of all this, no doubt the graph will look different, but for now perhaps it is exponential?? Just possibly???
The predictions will change as more info of the virus becomes known and as various localities and states and even countries initiate various forms of control (social distancing)
The daily death chart on worldometer.com Is pretty telling. Daily deaths for the world on 2/28 was about 60. Today was over 4K. America is quickly catching up to Spain and Italy. We had our first death in my town last week. A healthy 44 year old father and husband.
If the govt says something will be good, cut their prediction in half. If they say it will be bad, double their prediction. Half a million Americans dead.
basic-mathematics.com would seem to differ with your premise. Nothing in there mentions "small numbers don't mean shat".
If, what you're trying to say is that enough time hasn't elapsed to get a complete picture of what the final growth and decline curve of infection or death rates is, then say that.
It would seem that if a person wanted to they could solve the equation with the numbers of deaths to this point and they would very likely come up with an "x" that shows a rate of growth that is "exponential"...................by definition.
At the end of all this, no doubt the graph will look different, but for now perhaps it is exponential?? Just possibly???
Geno
Jumped inta the lead.
Yes, if you adjust the numbers enough, *any* growth can look exponential.
basic-mathematics.com would seem to differ with your premise. Nothing in there mentions "small numbers don't mean shat".
If, what you're trying to say is that enough time hasn't elapsed to get a complete picture of what the final growth and decline curve of infection or death rates is, then say that.
It would seem that if a person wanted to they could solve the equation with the numbers of deaths to this point and they would very likely come up with an "x" that shows a rate of growth that is "exponential"...................by definition.
At the end of all this, no doubt the graph will look different, but for now perhaps it is exponential?? Just possibly???
Geno
Jumped inta the lead.
Yes, if you adjust the numbers enough, *any* growth can look exponential.
No adjustment necessary.
Number of known deaths over time. Simple graph, simple function, starting with small numbers.
Italy is over? Italy has not even begun to slow down yet. Still about 750 deaths per day in Italy. Italy has apparently hit the flat at the top of the bell curve. But they are nowhere near the downslope as you so glibly claim.
Good luck convincing the families of the dead and dying that "it is over in Italy"
I would not describe such degenerates as friends. But I am acquainted with some folks who would really like to know what you are smoking.
Too bad you did not study in 7'th grade math class. Had you done your homework, you would know that all graphs of exponential growth start with one. This graph, over the course of 28 days is behaving exactly as predicted, and at some points in time, actually exceeding the predicted four day doubling rate. There is no cause to suspect it will not continue to double every four days for the next four weeks.
Well yes, but its chicken feed. Do you know how many folks die of old age. Now that's scarey.
Yeah, this Corona crap is scarey too. It's not like smoking or drinking and driving or playing with snakes. People can do something about that to lower the risk factor.
Fubarski already had it, so he don't GAF.
Fub, didn’t have shît, aside for his typical Wednesday morning hangover...His index profile would have him in an ICU with a garden hose in his face sucking in air made from a machine.
Always hilarious to watch a fool stick his ribs out and talk hard.
100% guarantee Funbuns will eventually catch it, just like the rest of us...Maybe we’ll see a sick-pic his husband post for a gofundme page to help him pay his rent.
Too bad you did not study in 7'th grade math class. Had you done your homework, you would know that all graphs of exponential growth start with one. This graph, over the course of 28 days is behaving exactly as predicted, and at some points in time, actually exceeding the predicted four day doubling rate. There is no cause to suspect it will not continue to double every four days for the next four weeks.
Well yes, but its chicken feed. Do you know how many folks die of old age. Now that's scarey.
Yeah, this Corona crap is scarey too. It's not like smoking or drinking and driving or playing with snakes. People can do something about that to lower the risk factor.
Fubarski already had it, so he don't GAF.
Fub, didn’t have shît, aside for his typical Wednesday morning hangover...His index profile would have him in an ICU with a garden hose in his face sucking in air made from a machine.
Always hilarious to watch a fool stick his ribs out and talk hard.
100% guarantee Funbuns will eventually catch it like the rest of us...Maybe see his sick-pic his husband post for a gofundme page to help him pay his rent.
😎
Just tryin ta see how many liberals I can juggle, at one time.
basic-mathematics.com would seem to differ with your premise. Nothing in there mentions "small numbers don't mean shat".
If, what you're trying to say is that enough time hasn't elapsed to get a complete picture of what the final growth and decline curve of infection or death rates is, then say that.
It would seem that if a person wanted to they could solve the equation with the numbers of deaths to this point and they would very likely come up with an "x" that shows a rate of growth that is "exponential"...................by definition.
At the end of all this, no doubt the graph will look different, but for now perhaps it is exponential?? Just possibly???
Geno
Jumped inta the lead.
Yes, if you adjust the numbers enough, *any* growth can look exponential.
No adjustment necessary.
Number of known deaths over time. Simple graph, simple function, starting with small numbers.
Geno
I certainly can not figure out what numbers supposedly got adjusted.
This jackass, Fubarski, sure likes to label anyone who disagrees with him as a liberal.
But I have heard for years that a favorite tactic of the Commies is to repeat a lie until people start to believe it. This sure seems to be Fubarski's favorite tactic. And his second tactic: accuse others practicing the very techniques you habitually use.
Deaths in USA Covid 19 Feb 29 1 Mar 4 11 Mar 8 22 Mar 12 41 Mar 16 87 Mar 20 255 Mar 24 780 Mar 28 2220 Mar 31 3889
Fubarski, Have you yet learned the definition of exponential growth?
Any doubts that we will see 4440 by tomorrow evening? 9,000 by Apr 5? 18,000 by Apr 9?
What number will it take for you to admit there might actually be a problem which we, as a nation, had to address?
Link shows a world wide daily chart on deaths. The doubling rate is different for each country, but a good average fit is about 3 days. Naturally the rate changes by day, but it is easy to see an average exponential rate over an extended time. All this data is on the chart. This is exponential growth. Data is word wide. I think it is fair to argue the future, but this data is the past. It really is not an opinion.
Too bad you did not study in 7'th grade math class. Had you done your homework, you would know that all graphs of exponential growth start with one. This graph, over the course of 28 days is behaving exactly as predicted, and at some points in time, actually exceeding the predicted four day doubling rate. There is no cause to suspect it will not continue to double every four days for the next four weeks.
Well yes, but its chicken feed. Do you know how many folks die of old age. Now that's scarey.
Yeah, this Corona crap is scarey too. It's not like smoking or drinking and driving or playing with snakes. People can do something about that to lower the risk factor.
Fubarski already had it, so he don't GAF.
Wouldn't GAF either way.
You pussies wanna live in fear, have at it.
You need to go on a hospital tour in Detroit. I'll fund your trip.
Really. You make the trip. I'll set up the tour. I'll pay your way, airfare, lodging, meals. There won't be a line item for PPE. You don't need it with your antibodies. I'll even agree to escrow the funds with Rick Bin, in full and upfront [I recognize the redundancy]. I know how you like to use him as your escrow agent.
Be sure he licks a doorknob at Receiving. That should complete the tour.
Jerry Day interviews Electromagnetic Radiation Specialist Liz Barris on a special document she helped produce which lists hundreds of legal references, arguments and citations to fight environmental contamination of wireless frequencies and electric field energies.
This country had over 1000 COVID deaths today and it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. Bear in mind we have been engaging in various mitigating measures for over a month now. Just like the flu right?
Any updates on the fishing trip—fish caught, antibodies exchanged, etc.?
Heard about a sighting of a guy with a sign saying “I beat Corona...Tired of beating my meat” protesting in front of a Asian Massage Parlor demanding the place be opened as an essential business...
Any updates on the fishing trip—fish caught, antibodies exchanged, etc.?
Heard about a sighting of a guy with a sign saying “I beat Corona...Tired of beating my meat” protesting in front of a Asian Massage Parlor demanding the place be opened as an essential business...
Any updates on the fishing trip—fish caught, antibodies exchanged, etc.?
Heard about a sighting of a guy with a sign saying “I beat Corona...Tired of beating my meat” protesting in front of a Asian Massage Parlor demanding the place be opened as an essential business...
Sounds like Fubarski....😎
Was he with Bob Kraft?
Not sure...He did have an empty “Tip Jar” labeled “Ask me how I bested the COVID-19.
So, you believe Tarquin? research his post history.... whakadoodle
Fubar - Stop taking the Xantac.
Wife won't let me, she counts her pills..... my rants are fueled by Jim Beam..... with this self isolation, day drinking is now socially acceptable....
So, you believe Tarquin? research his post history.... whakadoodle
Fubar - Stop taking the Xantac.
Wife won't let me, she counts her pills..... my rants are fueled by Jim Beam..... with this self isolation, day drinking is now socially acceptable....
So, you believe Tarquin? research his post history.... whakadoodle
Fubar - Stop taking the Xantac.
Wife won't let me, she counts her pills..... my rants are fueled by Jim Beam..... with this self isolation, day drinking is now socially acceptable....
Day drinking is responsible in moderation.
Beer for breakfast...................it can be a way of life!
Brother went to help an older gal, family friend near what our folks would be in age if they were still alive. SoCal area. Saw a guy with a sign on the island at an intersection:
"Mom is sick, please help"
No more need for "Vet, anything helps" signs I guess. Just pull the "mom" strings now.
The U.S. hit another one of several grim and sad milestones today: Health officials announced the 3,000th coronavirus-related death in the country, with about 900 from New York City alone, according to data from Johns Hopkins University....
We need to do our part in flattening the curve and by following all CDC, WHO and State and Local Health Officer guidelines.
For those of you who thought that there would be fewer than 10,000 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. for all of 2020...
Another grim milestone today: 63,733 Americans have died from it as of today, April 30. We still have another 10 months to go to make it one full year. At this rate, there will be 100,000+ deaths due to Covid-19. Still no antiviral medicine that's proven effective, still no vaccine, still lots of Americans in denial.
This country had over 1000 COVID deaths today and it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. Bear in mind we have been engaging in various mitigating measures for over a month now. Just like the flu right?
Paul,
The Covid "death" numbers are being GREATLY inflated. THAT has been proven by HONEST healthcare professionals.
Bill Gates wants it that way so he and Fauci can pimp his unsafe vaccine to 320 million + brainwashed U.S .Sheeple during the next 18 months.
The U.S. hit another one of several grim and sad milestones today: Health officials announced the 3,000th coronavirus-related death in the country, with about 900 from New York City alone, according to data from Johns Hopkins University....
We need to do our part in flattening the curve and by following all CDC, WHO and State and Local Health Officer guidelines.
For those of you who thought that there would be fewer than 10,000 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. for all of 2020...
Another grim milestone today: 63,733 Americans have died from it as of today, April 30. We still have another 10 months to go to make it one full year. At this rate, there will be 100,000+ deaths due to Covid-19. Still no antiviral medicine that's proven effective, still no vaccine, still lots of Americans in denial.
And I believe that Fauci's figure was based on pre-social distancing being introduced, and was in fact a warning to introduce and proceed with social distancing. Ultimately we'll never know because I think quarantine will be lifted and there will be new outbreaks here and there over time.
The U.S. hit another one of several grim and sad milestones today: Health officials announced the 3,000th coronavirus-related death in the country, with about 900 from New York City alone, according to data from Johns Hopkins University....
We need to do our part in flattening the curve and by following all CDC, WHO and State and Local Health Officer guidelines.
For those of you who thought that there would be fewer than 10,000 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. for all of 2020...
Another grim milestone today: 63,733 Americans have died from it as of today, April 30. We still have another 10 months to go to make it one full year. At this rate, there will be 100,000+ deaths due to Covid-19. Still no antiviral medicine that's proven effective, still no vaccine, still lots of Americans in denial.
I watched two Doctors from California, of all places, on a newscast recently. They both said they were being pressured to list Covid-19 as the cause of death for patients, even when the patient never tested positive for the virus. The #'s are intentionally being inflated, but unfortunately, we'll never know by how many.
I watched two Doctors from California, of all places, on a newscast recently. They both said they were being pressured to list Covid-19 as the cause of death for patients, even when the patient never tested positive for the virus. The #'s are intentionally being inflated, but unfortunately, we'll never know by how many.
Numbers are being inflated because the bottom fell out of the Covid infection rate in mid to late April. CDC weekly data showed that the number of "ILI" activities (Influenza Like Illness) went from "Very High" to "Minimal" between 28 March and 18 April for all but 4 states (NY, ID, LA, WI). CDC has since removed that interactive graphic from the their website because it does not support the agenda. Looking at the new infection numbers from KY Dept of Public Health on the official KY.gov website, from 20 April to present, numbers about went thru the bottom of the chart.
As in a normal flu year, the "seasonality" portion of the Covid infection rate is kicking in, dropping due to warm weather and sunshine. The only way the Leftists can continue with "control" is to jack up the numbers to make the situation look worse than it actually is.
If rating government agencies for worthlessness the CDC has to be close the top.Beside posting info two weeks after someone else has what do they do?They sat on their asses on this where were they in December or January?
You would think as the number of deaths rise you'd personally know someone who has died from the China virus. I still don't know anyone who has died from the China virus. I think it's a good idea to take some precautions against the flu and pneumonia every year, maybe that's why there's a flu shot available? Those folks in the at risk groups need to be extremely careful just like every flu season. At least the Norovirus has taken a back seat to the China virus.
I watched two Doctors from California, of all places, on a newscast recently. They both said they were being pressured to list Covid-19 as the cause of death for patients, even when the patient never tested positive for the virus. The #'s are intentionally being inflated, but unfortunately, we'll never know by how many.
Numbers are being inflated because the bottom fell out of the Covid infection rate in mid to late April. CDC weekly data showed that the number of "ILI" activities (Influenza Like Illness) went from "Very High" to "Minimal" between 28 March and 18 April for all but 4 states (NY, ID, LA, WI). CDC has since removed that interactive graphic from the their website because it does not support the agenda. Looking at the new infection numbers from KY Dept of Public Health on the official KY.gov website, from 20 April to present, numbers about went thru the bottom of the chart.
As in a normal flu year, the "seasonality" portion of the Covid infection rate is kicking in, dropping due to warm weather and sunshine. The only way the Leftists can continue with "control" is to jack up the numbers to make the situation look worse than it actually is.
This is spot on. The problem with leftist bullschit is that they can do whatever they want to manipulate findings to best fit their agendas and nobody is there to call them on it. The media is supposed to be the watchdog for this type of crap. Unfortunately that dog only barks what the perp is a conservative...
The numbers are falsely elevated. These large medical systems are getting federal dollars for covid patients and since their census is so low, everyone is listed as covid. Likewise deaths not attributable to covid, get listed as covid deaths. I have talked to several MD's who have related this information as listed. I know of several patients with terminal diseases (metastatic cancer, end-stage CHF, stroke) who died and were listed as covid deaths.
There is no good epidemiology on this now. Its all politicized for telling a story.
Fauci has been recently saying that there will be a second wave, as bad or worse than the first. This may well be correct and is a direct result of the policies he's been promoting and which have been followed by almost the entire country. The lockdowns guarantee a prolonged C 19 crisis.
The numbers are falsely elevated. These large medical systems are getting federal dollars for covid patients and since their census is so low, everyone is listed as covid. Likewise deaths not attributable to covid, get listed as covid deaths. I have talked to several MD's who have related this information as listed. I know of several patients with terminal diseases (metastatic cancer, end-stage CHF, stroke) who died and were listed as covid deaths.
There is no good epidemiology on this now. Its all politicized for telling a story.
Grampy Albert age 86 died peacefully in his sleep in his home. Congestive heart failure issue,s for 18 yrs.
C19 got him per the medicaid doc. No proof, except for the pencil whipped COD on the death certificate......
This whole situation has just proven yet again how divided the country is as a whole. Right now you're either a Corona Doomer or an Alex Jones Boomer. Regardless of the situation, the same outcome will ensue. I like to think of myself as someone who can see both sides equally, and make my own educated opinion. With that being said.......God Bless DJT, MAGA!!!!!
The U.S. hit another one of several grim and sad milestones today: Health officials announced the 3,000th coronavirus-related death in the country, with about 900 from New York City alone, according to data from Johns Hopkins University....
We need to do our part in flattening the curve and by following all CDC, WHO and State and Local Health Officer guidelines.
For those of you who thought that there would be fewer than 10,000 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. for all of 2020...
Another grim milestone today: 63,733 Americans have died from it as of today, April 30. We still have another 10 months to go to make it one full year. At this rate, there will be 100,000+ deaths due to Covid-19. Still no antiviral medicine that's proven effective, still no vaccine, still lots of Americans in denial.
You have been nominated for the True Believer Award by The Weak Sisters of Saint Gullible. Congratulations!
I've been asking employees who have dealt with the public - if anybody there has become sick co-19 . Piggly Wiggly/Publix/Kroger , auto zone , wendys , and lots of others . Girl at Publix said 2 people in a Miami store tested positive boyfriend & girlfriend . She was early 20's and believed the scare was mostly polically driven and was up on the info. of every death is a C0-19 death . Great to see a young person - especially a female - who doesn't trust the MSM .
Amazing at the number of older folks who still don't know what ''fake news media'' means . People around here freaked out over $1200 ? $12,000 would make me smile - [not really] because it puts the country further in debt .
The numbers are indeed inflated. It was a bold move to put extra $$ in the relief bill for hospitals dealing with COVID cases. As hospitals have cut all elective procedures and people are afraid to go there, they are losing their asses. Why would't you list COVID and try to close the income gap that has been created. I'm sure the pressure is from administrators and bean-counters to get the funding necessary to stay afloat.
Lot of graphs and numbers floating around, and none have been accurate. Even as the CDC numbers lag by eight weeks, the total number of deaths nationwide from all causes is down. I doubt the eight weeks worth of data will make a 4% jump in overall deaths. We are playing a shell game and just shuffling the numbers.
What has been accomplished: A new protected class - healthcare workers There will be COVID related health issues that make people government dependent - The news cycle is starting to push the underlying conditions that are the result of the disease. PTSD will be one of them. We have successfully alienated one another and changed social contact - The mask is a muzzle. The new push will be the open display of firearms inhibits the democratic process - news cycle has picked up the Michigan vote that was under duress.
Just watch as things are forced upon us and we sit as frogs in a pot.
And yes, I have had a family member with a verified case. In a nursing home even (you know, the death camps). Even with his underlying condition he has been recovered for some time as many of the residents have.
The U.S. hit another one of several grim and sad milestones today: Health officials announced the 3,000th coronavirus-related death in the country, with about 900 from New York City alone, according to data from Johns Hopkins University....
We need to do our part in flattening the curve and by following all CDC, WHO and State and Local Health Officer guidelines.
For those of you who thought that there would be fewer than 10,000 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. for all of 2020...
Another grim milestone today: 63,733 Americans have died from it as of today, April 30. We still have another 10 months to go to make it one full year. At this rate, there will be 100,000+ deaths due to Covid-19. Still no antiviral medicine that's proven effective, still no vaccine, still lots of Americans in denial.
Every year in the US there are 160,000 deaths from accidents. 75% happen in the home. Locking yourself up in your house may not be as safe as you think. With so many people staying at home, those numbers are likely to be much higher this year.
Every year in the US there are 160,000 deaths from accidents. 75% happen in the home. Locking yourself up in your house may not be as safe as you think. With so many people staying at home, those numbers are likely to be much higher this year.
After a month of wives putting up with bored husbands stuck at home I would bet money on the incidents of "accidents" rising.
I would also be betting these will mostly involve heavy objects.
Fauci warns 100–200K Americans could die from virus, but says projections are “moving target” - Axios
“Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on CNN's "State of the Union" Sunday that models suggest the coronavirus will infect millions of Americans and could kill 100,000–200,000, though he stressed that the projections are "such a moving target." Why it matters: Fauci has been the coronavirus task force's most outspoken advocate for emergency social distancing measures to stop the spread of the coronavirus, sometimes contradicting President Trump's more optimistic outlook.”
Danged right I believe it. If you fire 20% of working Americans from their jobs and cut back the pay of another 30% (so far), you're gong to get at least that many from spousal abuse, depression, drugs, robberies gone bad, and suicides.
Every year in the US there are 160,000 deaths from accidents. 75% happen in the home. Locking yourself up in your house may not be as safe as you think. With so many people staying at home, those numbers are likely to be much higher this year.
I know we all want this to go away but the dead are still dead and it only took 3 months. There will be more to come and it is sad that this grim statistic has become political.
Before this got going, when we considered it another flu, only worse, I figured if you take the seasonal flu with a death rate of 0.1% and the average of 35,000 and multiplied it by the death rate we were seeing aboard the cruise ships of 0.6 % that equals 210,000. But the death rate varies from the0.4% of Germany to the 1.16% of NYC. So the 200,000 seemed logical. The other kicker, it's more contagious , and flu doesn't infect that large a % of the population. I've never heard of math being political . So it could go beyond the 200,000 when it's over.
If it's like the Spanish flu, there could be a couple more waves yet COVID-20, COVID-21? Nah, can't be, this is unprecedented. Swedes may be on the right track, in which case Aussie and NZ may have screwed themselves - our politicians are wanting us to pat ourselves on the back for doing so well.
More people dead in 2 months than we lost in Vietnam in 20 years. More dead in 3 months than Vietnam and Korea combined. The survival rate for the 1st wave at Normandy was higher than the survival rate of those who were diagnosed with Covid in this country. People in most developed countries have better survival rates than us.
It won't be hard to figure out if the numbers are overstated, or understated. The truth will come out. The average number of people who die each day/week/month etc is pretty constant and predictable at about 8000/day for all causes. The numbers I'm seeing are showing about 10% more dead per day on average since Jan1, so call it another 800 per day. Today is the 147th day of 2020. 147X800=117,600
More people dead in 2 months than we lost in Vietnam in 20 years. More dead in 3 months than Vietnam and Korea combined. The survival rate for the 1st wave at Normandy was higher than the survival rate of those who were diagnosed with Covid in this country. People in most developed countries have better survival rates than us.
It won't be hard to figure out if the numbers are overstated, or understated. The truth will come out. The average number of people who die each day/week/month etc is pretty constant and predictable at about 8000/day for all causes. The numbers I'm seeing are showing about 10% more dead per day on average since Jan1, so call it another 800 per day. Today is the 147th day of 2020. 147X800=117,600
Will be interesting to see what actions are taken against China on this.
More people dead in 2 months than we lost in Vietnam in 20 years. More dead in 3 months than Vietnam and Korea combined. The survival rate for the 1st wave at Normandy was higher than the survival rate of those who were diagnosed with Covid in this country. People in most developed countries have better survival rates than us.
It won't be hard to figure out if the numbers are overstated, or understated. The truth will come out. The average number of people who die each day/week/month etc is pretty constant and predictable at about 8000/day for all causes. The numbers I'm seeing are showing about 10% more dead per day on average since Jan1, so call it another 800 per day. Today is the 147th day of 2020. 147X800=117,600
In England doing the numbers is easier, just one country. What with states and counties having different ways of recording of data, exact numbers might not be up to date. In England as of today they are saying 37,000 COVID-19 deaths. But the Nation Statistics service has a 57,000 deaths above the 5 year average. This trend of under reporting is pretty common in Europe..
I don't know, as viruses go the Covid seems fairly benevolent. I mean, if you had to choose a pandemic to suffer through, one that nearly eliminates all other causes of death has to rank fairly high and I admire that aspect of Covid's game.
My guess is that a lot of the elderly, smokers, alcoholics, drug addicts, obese, AIDS ridden, diabetics, and others in poor health will be taken down by this virus. And there is no shortage of those type of people in this country.
If Doc Fauci says it, I believe that HE believes it. And he is pretty much one of the 'duty experts'.
Smokers (and soldiers) are safe - we got our lungs coated with tar, the virus can't penetrate, Soldiers - we were given so many shots and vaccines, nothing can live in there... LOL
Numbers from “Experts” are all over the map on this stuff
From 3.5 Million Americans will die to 100 to 200K now.
Who do we believe???
The Corona-Virus is a totally new virus; it hasn't been seen before. Therefore, there is a lot that isn't known about it. Medical and infectious disease experts and, epidemiologists are making "best estimates" as to the direction and depth the virus will penetrate.
They may be right, they may be wrong, they may be over-estimating the effects or they might be under-estimating the effects; no one really knows.
Numbers from “Experts” are all over the map on this stuff
From 3.5 Million Americans will die to 100 to 200K now.
Who do we believe???
The Corona-Virus is a totally new virus; it hasn't been seen before. Therefore, there is a lot that isn't known about it. Medical and infectious disease experts and, epidemiologists are making "best estimates" as to the direction and depth the virus will penetrate.
They may be right, they may be wrong, they may be over-estimating the effects or they might be under-estimating the effects; no one really knows.
We damn sure know that they are padding the numbers. They've admitted it repeatedly, although the gullible seem to gloss right over that and continue to parrot stupidity.
Fauci warns 100–200K Americans could die from virus, but says projections are “moving target” - Axios
“Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on CNN's "State of the Union" Sunday that models suggest the coronavirus will infect millions of Americans and could kill 100,000–200,000, though he stressed that the projections are "such a moving target." Why it matters: Fauci has been the coronavirus task force's most outspoken advocate for emergency social distancing measures to stop the spread of the coronavirus, sometimes contradicting President Trump's more optimistic outlook.”
In order for ANY numbers to mean squat, you have to #ibelievechina. Because if you don't #ibelievechina, then ALL numbers are wrong.
Here is what a believer needs to believe:
1) China told the truth about when the virus started (sometime in late December #ibelievechina) 2) No one traveled to or from China in the months of October-December of last year. Therefore, no one with the virus left China. Those 2000 plus flights a week in and out of China were just uninfected people moving about the world. #ibelievechina 3) Because China is such an upstanding country, with great leaders who care for their countrymen and other populations of the world, they were forthcoming about all aspects of the origin, severity,and timing of the rona #ibelievedhina 4) Back in January Fauci is letting Trump know there is nothing to worry about. Pelosi and Deblasio are asking people to visit Chinatown and go to the show or out to eat.#ibelievefaucipelosideblasiocuomowilltellmethetruth 5) Fauci then changes course and now it's all Trump's fault for reacting too quickly then not quickly enough #ibelievefauci Trump shuts down travel to China 3rd week of January (so how many people came and went from China just in those 3 weeks) 6) Based on a false narrative, the liberals find an easy path to beat Trump over the head with said false narrative.#ibelievetheMSMistellingmethetruth 7) Now we are told that all death WITH covid are deaths FROM covid #ibelievethenumbersandtheMSMistellingmethetruth 8) all 100,000 deaths are really from covid. No really they are. #ibelievetheMSMistellingmethetruth 9) Other causes of death are NOT declining. #ibelievetheMSMistellingmethetruth
I think most people here on the fire are sensible people, who for whatever reason jumped up and grabbed a hold of the fairy tale. Some because they are gullible, some because they, or a loved one, were more vulnerable based on what we know about the virus. Some have come to realize they are being lied to and some haven't.
My contention from the start of this was never trust a fart. (China) Therefore, I never bought into the falsehood that we didn't get it here until January. It cannot make sense for it to be so. Therefore, the number of people who have had it is undocumented and way under estimated. But, for some reason, isn't playing in the MSM is it? Wonder why that is?
So now we come to the same old tired argument of just how many need to die? And, what if it were your family member?
1) Why didn't we ask the same questions in previous years? It is obvious everyone was accepting of flu deaths because no one ever shut down the economy for the flu before. My family members can die from any number of things with a higher probability of doing so than covid. I ain't gonna live in fear of this. 2) In any health crisis, we would isolate and quarantine the sick, not the healthy. (And not just sort of quarantine, like we have now) How does quarantining the healthy, and those who are the least vulnerable help stem the tide of the virus? a) let me answer that last question for you. It doesn't help if the healthy are being asked to stay inside with the sick. 3) I know personally 2 people who have had it, and I only know of someone who knew someone died.
Fauci warns 100–200K Americans could die from virus, but says projections are “moving target” - Axios
“Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on CNN's "State of the Union" Sunday that models suggest the coronavirus will infect millions of Americans and could kill 100,000–200,000, though he stressed that the projections are "such a moving target." Why it matters: Fauci has been the coronavirus task force's most outspoken advocate for emergency social distancing measures to stop the spread of the coronavirus, sometimes contradicting President Trump's more optimistic outlook.”
On Chinese social media on January 8 there was a posting about it. In fact there was a lot of posting in January, February, and March. They were quickly censored. It made the Chinese government look incompetent. If a student picked them up, CIA must have. So you can take the warning date as of January 8. All around the world, governments were slow to react. And pretty incompetently, too. How many ramped up PPE in January ? , or even February ? It's not like they hadn't seen it before, remember SARS in 2003 ? It was much more lethal, but not nearly as contagious. It, too, came out of a Chinese wet market. When will the Chinese learn, I guess stupidity and greed go hand in hand. In South Korea and Taiwan you saw everybody in masks. They had experienced SARS, too.
In 1957 the Asian flu killed 200,000 Americans. Our population was only 177,000,000 in 1957. That's the same death rate as 186,000 deaths from Corona in 2020.
And they didn't kick 40,000,000 people (according to the figures today) out of work!
The Corona-Virus is a totally new virus; it hasn't been seen before.
You can not prove that statement.
It's called a novel Corona Virus for a reason:
From the CDC: "What is a novel corona virus? "A novel corona virus is a new corona virus that has not been previously identified. The virus causing corona-virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is not the same as the corona viruses that commonly circulate among humans and cause mild illness, like the common cold.
I work in Asia and here, due to problems with testing, covid deaths are reported as pneumonia. Today we are seeing more than 5x level of pneumonia deaths than the normal rate in previous years. So in some cases, municipalities might overreport and in others they are undercounting.
I work in Asia and here, due to problems with testing, covid deaths are reported as pneumonia. Today we are seeing more than 5x normal levels of pneumonia deaths than normal. So in some cases, municipalities might overreport and in others they are undercounting.
I work in Asia and here, due to problems with testing, covid deaths are reported as pneumonia. Today we are seeing more than 5x normal levels of pneumonia deaths than normal. So in some cases, municipalities might overreport and in others they are undercounting.
Bullshit!
Excellent point, I can’t argue with that kind of logic and expertise.
I work in Asia and here, due to problems with testing, covid deaths are reported as pneumonia. Today we are seeing more than 5x normal levels of pneumonia deaths than normal. So in some cases, municipalities might overreport and in others they are undercounting.
Bullshit!
Excellent point, I can’t argue with that kind of logic and expertise.
LOL. By the way, NZ has had no unexplained Covid 19 cases for 63 days. We have 22 active cases (that's 22, not 220, or 2200, or 22,000, or 220,000 like some places), and they are all from NZ citizens returning from overseas.
Everyone coming into NZ has to go into compulsory quarantine for 14 days and they get tested twice.
I work in Asia and here, due to problems with testing, covid deaths are reported as pneumonia. Today we are seeing more than 5x normal levels of pneumonia deaths than normal. So in some cases, municipalities might overreport and in others they are undercounting.
Bullshit!
Excellent point, I can’t argue with that kind of logic and expertise.
Glad you see things my way and have seen the evils of spreading fake news!
Or anything else in Liberal Socialist Democrat states.
C19 getting em all!!!
Specially when kick back funds from unca suga are involved and carte blanche policy with a skill craft pen on death certificates bring in da Benjamin's........
How many of those NYC and NYS deaths were old folks sent back to nursing homes ....
Glad to hear that. The preacher is speaking to a religious studies class at Devil State University of all places. LOL! Arizona State.
Please pray for me to have many opportunities to share that same good news around the country. Feel free to contact me PM if you ever have prayer requests.
Actually headed to 134,000. We have a under count for several reasons. Here they are. In the beginning nursing homes in USA did not report the deaths in them.
In New York people died in there homes emergency people just took the bodies to funeral homes, they were not counted. Like some one else said
The Doctors in the beginning listed cause of death as pneumonia when they started checking they had 4 times as many pneumonia death this year
as the last few years. They figure all those deaths were COVID-19. That is some of the reasons there is a under count. My prediction is 200,000 will die by the
year. Same as 3 months ago, I still hope I am wrong but. The reason this is so bad is how many people catch so easily. Miami Dade County has 26%
positive today. California is haveing to fly patients from Imperial county to San Francisco because there are no beds in Imperial County. I will end with the good
news less people are dying from it because Doctors have figured out how to treat it. Bad news is hospitals in some states are going to be very full for while.
Yup, we're all going to die of something. The rest of his story was paid for by bill gates.
They need to listen to this before it's too late for them.
Yes but remember on March 15th he was telling us that millions were going to die!
True
He reminded me of the wizard of oz. A little man hiding behind a curtain of a mask, telling us to be" SCARED!!!!!!!!BE VERY SCARED!!!! For I am the great Fauci...the all Knowing doctor of the whole wide world and beyond! "
Where's Toto???
BTW, in all seriousness... where's my video!!!! The stinking Goober, controller of the world wide web deleated and banned Pastor Steven Anderson's Main YouTube channel! Google hates the gospel.
Interesting, the count stands at 345k deaths in the US today. For the sake of argument, let’s say there was a 50% error rate. That means >170k. Still doubting and scoffing?
Interesting, the count stands at 345k deaths in the US today. For the sake of argument, let’s say there was a 50% error rate. That means >170k. Still doubting and scoffing?
You were the guy who said the numbers were inaccurate and basically worthless.
Interesting, the count stands at 345k deaths in the US today. For the sake of argument, let’s say there was a 50% error rate. That means >170k. Still doubting and scoffing?
I think that the error rate is much higher than 50% since virtually EVERY ADMITTANCE to the hospitals are being recorded as “Covid related”.
How many people have died from the flu in the US or non covid related pneumonia? Diabetes? Heart disease?
Interesting, the count stands at 345k deaths in the US today. For the sake of argument, let’s say there was a 50% error rate. That means >170k. Still doubting and scoffing?
It’s actually an 80% over-reporting if people who die OF Covid Rather than WITH it.
Break it down by age and you’re virtually guaranteed to see that the shutdowns were so foolish that it makes giving benefit of the doubt feel naive.
But you can say what ya like; you’re free to be afraid. If only this country allowed people to bravely go about their business with equal impunity.
Interesting, the count stands at 345k deaths in the US today. For the sake of argument, let’s say there was a 50% error rate. That means >170k. Still doubting and scoffing?
This guy ^^^^ must be a libtard to believe that nonsense
Dr. Anthony Fauci, while hailed as a hero by many for his leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, has made several critical missteps that have undermined his own credibility and contributed to the deep divisions in the nation over the response to the virus.
Fauci, has, since March, engaged in a number of deliberate half-truths and distortions regarding public health that have likely had disastrous consequences for the public trust in scientific and medical expertise. The latest of these was just this week.
It all began in March, when the pandemic was first beginning to impact the United States. Appearing on 60 Minutes on March 8, Fauci attempted to reassure the public that wearing face coverings was not a very important public health measure and could even be counter productive.
“Right now, in the United States, people should not be walking around with masks,” Fauci confidently informed the interviewer Dr. Jon LaPook. Pressed for clarification, Fauci went on.
“There’s no reason to be walking around with a mask. When you’re in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better and it might even block a droplet, but it’s not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is. And, often, there are unintended consequences — people keep fiddling with the mask and they keep touching their face.”
Such statements are jarring based on what we know has been recommended in the time since. So why the big change? Was it an error based on inaccurate information? Did the good doctor feel any pang of regret for the misguided advice that could have led to increased disease spread early on?
Well, in his own words, no.
“I don’t regret anything I said then,” Fauci later told 60 Minutes Correspondent Norah O’Donnell in an interview published in InStyle magazine in July. “Because in the context of the time in which I said it, it was correct. We were told in our task force meetings that we have a serious problem with the lack of PPEs and masks for the health providers who are putting themselves in harm’s way every day to take care of sick people.”
In other words, Fauci knew masks worked, he just didn’t want the general public to have them before medical professionals. He knew supplies were low. So he lied. And he doesn’t regret it.
Rather than giving Americans the truth and making a plea to put healthcare workers first, Dr. Fauci made the decision that the people weren’t to be trusted with the information he had.
The same thing happened later in March in an interview with ABC’s Jonathan Karl, who asked the doc when we could expect our lives to return to normal.
“It’s going to be a matter of several weeks to a few months, for sure,” Fauci glibly told the host.
“For sure.”
Nine months later, with no end in sight, how has that worked out? Did Fauci really not know what the United States was facing into 2021 and beyond? Or was he just telling us what he thought we needed to hear?
And another intentional falsehood was just revealed in the New York Times. An article this week about the level of vaccination that will be needed to achieve herd immunity noted that Dr. Fauci has slowly been raising his public estimate over time, from 60 to 70% to 70 to 75% and even now up to 75, 80, 85%.
So why the shift?
“The country,” Fauci told the Times in a phone interview, “is finally ready to hear what he really thinks.”
Once again, he has been withholding information from the public based on his own personal assessment of what the American people can handle. Likely, his intentions are noble. But easily discovered untruths do a disservice to the public health profession, and have doubtless led to the rampant distrust for the official guidance from government sources.
How much damage was done by this erosion of faith in our medical experts may never be fully known.
MyMIL turned 78 today. She was tested positive two weeks ago and has been kinda schitty feeling for a while, diarrhea, gi upset, short of breath. She’s getting better now. You’d think she must be in good shape to fight off the virus at that age. Well she is, other than overweight, high blood pressure, COPD and something else I can’t recall at the moment.
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