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Preparing for possible upcoming recession

Posted By: ribka

Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

I think, as many others, were due for a big recession.

Im trying to pick up some commodities stocks, picked up good dividend oil stocks a few weeks ago, buy into more good dividend stocks in upcoming downmarket (merck, Coca Cola, Johnson and Johnson), will probably get some gold stocks in near future. Probably transfer 50 per cent of investments into a good bond fund. when interest rates rise.Obviously have all debts paid off. Sold house waiting for a dip in realestate market to buy land and hopefully build own house. The area I live now is pretty expensive due to influx of Californians with cash.

Any other suggestions?
Posted By: mtnsnake

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

I think there will be a hole in the food supply chain later this year and next.
Posted By: IndyCA35

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

I'm just keeping the investments I have. You can't time the market. The market has already discounted the fact that there is going to be a recession.
Posted By: ribka

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

Originally Posted by IndyCA35
I'm just keeping the investments I have. You can't time the market. The market has already discounted the fact that there is going to be a recession.



two stocked chest freezers full of fish and game
Posted By: gregintenn

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

I went to the liquor store and stocked up last night.
Posted By: lightman

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

Originally Posted by ribka
I think, as many others, were due for a big recession.

Im trying to pick up some commodities stocks, picked up good dividend oil stocks a few weeks ago, buy into more good dividend stocks in upcoming downmarket (merck, Coca Cola, Johnson and Johnson), will probably get some gold stocks in near future. Probably transfer 50 per cent of investments into a good bond fund. when interest rates rise.Obviously have all debts paid off. Sold house waiting for a dip in realestate market to buy land and hopefully build own house. The area I live now is pretty expensive due to influx of Californians with cash.

Any other suggestions?


I think you about have it covered. I won't be changing my investments. But we have an emergency fund set back, some cash on hand, non-perishable food stuff and household stuff set back, keeping the fuel tanks in your vehicle full, staying out of debt or reducing debt, ect. It also would be a good idea to tighten up on security and increase your level of awareness.

Oh yeah, I have a decent beer and liquor stash.
Posted By: hanco

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

It is gonna get tough I believe. We have plenty food for now! There will be lots of things for sale before long!
Posted By: moosemike

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

Possible? It's a certainty from what I'm hearing.
Posted By: ribka

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

Forgot to mention have at least 6 months living expenses. Covered for security and recently moved to a very safe homogenous semi rural area. Going to can more this summer. Buy a few extra doe tags.


Originally Posted by lightman
Originally Posted by ribka
I think, as many others, were due for a big recession.

Im trying to pick up some commodities stocks, picked up good dividend oil stocks a few weeks ago, buy into more good dividend stocks in upcoming downmarket (merck, Coca Cola, Johnson and Johnson), will probably get some gold stocks in near future. Probably transfer 50 per cent of investments into a good bond fund. when interest rates rise.Obviously have all debts paid off. Sold house waiting for a dip in realestate market to buy land and hopefully build own house. The area I live now is pretty expensive due to influx of Californians with cash.

Any other suggestions?


I think you about have it covered. I won't be changing my investments. But we have an emergency fund set back, some cash on hand, non-perishable food stuff and household stuff set back, keeping the fuel tanks in your vehicle full, staying out of debt or reducing debt, ect. It also would be a good idea to tighten up on security and increase your level of awareness.

Oh yeah, I have a decent beer and liquor stash.
Posted By: ribka

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

Originally Posted by moosemike
Possible? It's a certainty from what I'm hearing.


I know its going to happen but can't prove it. All the signs and conditions and the recent 2 trillion in relief package pretty much guaranteed it.
Posted By: ElkSlayer91

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

Originally Posted by ribka
Originally Posted by moosemike
Possible? It's a certainty from what I'm hearing.


I know its going to happen but can't prove it. All the signs and conditions and the recent 2 trillion in relief package pretty much guaranteed it.

Yes you can.....the millions going on unemployment. Hasn't happened at that level since 1980's, and it's going deeper. You can't throw a boat anchor out on the economy, like they have, and it shutter business, without carnage in the wake. I don't like typing, and seeing it in print, but it's fact we have to face, and you have to stay strong, to be leaders in your communities.

People will refuse to believe it is happening, but you have to push through that, and plan for the worse, so you can get as much long-term storage supplies, now, while they are available.
Posted By: moosemike

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

Originally Posted by ribka
Originally Posted by moosemike
Possible? It's a certainty from what I'm hearing.


I know its going to happen but can't prove it. All the signs and conditions and the recent 2 trillion in relief package pretty much guaranteed it.


And the next 2 trillion stimulus is already in the works.
Posted By: stxhunter

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

i gotten all kinds of calls for the last few days for work.
Posted By: ribka

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

Originally Posted by ElkSlayer91
Originally Posted by ribka
Originally Posted by moosemike
Possible? It's a certainty from what I'm hearing.


I know its going to happen but can't prove it. All the signs and conditions and the recent 2 trillion in relief package pretty much guaranteed it.

Yes you can.....the millions going on unemployment. Hasn't happened at that level since 1980's, and it's going deeper. You can't throw a boat anchor out on the economy, like they have, and it shutter business, without carnage in the wake. I don't like typing, and seeing it in print, but it's fact we have to face, and you have to stay strong, to be leaders in your communities.

People will refuse to believe it is happening, but you have to push through that, and plan for the worse, so you can get as much long-term storage supplies, now, while they are available.



no one has has accurately predicted our economy one hundred per cent. Just try and have a back up plan for the worst instead of living pay check to pay check and going out to eat every day and buying new trucks and boats etc
Posted By: Bristoe

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

I don't know. I know that when this Corona schitt passes, manufacturers are going to crank up hard.
Posted By: JCMCUBIC

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

Originally Posted by Bristoe
I don't know. I know that when this Corona schitt passes, manufacturers are going to crank up hard.


I'm no economist but I can understand lots of businesses may be hurting now......but I agree with Bristoe that when things settle down lots of producers are really going to produce.

I'm not sure how long it will take for this stuff to settle down....hopefully spring/summer will help end it quicker. Long, slow, drawn out will really hurt......
Posted By: AKCHOPPER

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

Never chase stocks that pay a dividend! They're not all that they seem.
Posted By: ribka

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

Originally Posted by AKCHOPPER
Never chase stocks that pay a dividend! They're not all that they seem.


planning 50 to 60 per cent dividend stocks of a diversified portfolio. Can reallocate as conditions change .
Posted By: ribka

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

Originally Posted by JCMCUBIC
Originally Posted by Bristoe
I don't know. I know that when this Corona schitt passes, manufacturers are going to crank up hard.


I'm no economist but I can understand lots of businesses may be hurting now......but I agree with Bristoe that when things settle down lots of producers are really going to produce.

I'm not sure how long it will take for this stuff to settle down....hopefully spring/summer will help end it quicker. Long, slow, drawn out will really hurt......



They will but will consumers have money to purchase in 3 months at same rate as before virus? That is the question. Concerned that some percentage of current lay offs could be permanent.
Posted By: moosemike

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

Originally Posted by ribka
Originally Posted by ElkSlayer91
Originally Posted by ribka
Originally Posted by moosemike
Possible? It's a certainty from what I'm hearing.


I know its going to happen but can't prove it. All the signs and conditions and the recent 2 trillion in relief package pretty much guaranteed it.

Yes you can.....the millions going on unemployment. Hasn't happened at that level since 1980's, and it's going deeper. You can't throw a boat anchor out on the economy, like they have, and it shutter business, without carnage in the wake. I don't like typing, and seeing it in print, but it's fact we have to face, and you have to stay strong, to be leaders in your communities.

People will refuse to believe it is happening, but you have to push through that, and plan for the worse, so you can get as much long-term storage supplies, now, while they are available.



no one has has accurately predicted our economy one hundred per cent. Just try and have a back up plan for the worst instead of living pay check to pay check and going out to eat every day and buying new trucks and boats etc


I don't know. Eating out everyday and buying new trucks sounds perfect. And paycheck to paycheck is business as usual. laugh
Posted By: AKwolverine

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

Originally Posted by ribka
Originally Posted by JCMCUBIC
Originally Posted by Bristoe
I don't know. I know that when this Corona schitt passes, manufacturers are going to crank up hard.


I'm no economist but I can understand lots of businesses may be hurting now......but I agree with Bristoe that when things settle down lots of producers are really going to produce.

I'm not sure how long it will take for this stuff to settle down....hopefully spring/summer will help end it quicker. Long, slow, drawn out will really hurt......



They will but will consumers have money to purchase in 3 months at same rate as before virus? That is the question. Concerned that some percentage of current lay offs could be permanent.

I can’t imagine that the consumer confidence or willingness to purchase on credit will miraculously rebound to the same level as January ‘20. I think this thing takes a while to play out - and some things are headed for a “new normal” I’m afraid.
Posted By: moosemike

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

Everybody is talking about a new normal. Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck are even uttering the "depression" word.
Posted By: Burleyboy

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

I like to keep a few thousand ounces of silver just as an emergency fund or insurance against a currency collapse. I used to buy mostly eagles, maple leafs, and Philharmonics, but the last few years I've liked mercury dimes and walking liberty halves. Most people recognize them as silver and they would be easy to make change. The premiums in the stuff is crazy high right now and who knows when it will come down.

I say the time to pay off debt was the last few years. Right now don't spend on anything but necessities and keep some cash ready for deals. If you have money in retirement accounts use that to pick up some good solid stocks and or funds bit by bit as it drops. I think it may still drop more before it's done. I'm still thinking of buys as the dow hits 18k, 16k, 14k, and maybe even 12k if it gets there. Who knows maybe it won't drop again but once the virus levels off I'll probably put the retirement money in something.

My health has been on the decline for several years and Drs told me I wouldn't be able to work much longer so I started getting out of debt years ago and kicked it to high gear about 2014. Fortunately we have our house paid off and vehicles paid off. I regret spending savings to put solar on our home last year but I got a big tax credit and now our power bill is almost nothing except mid winter and then its substantially lower. Right now I think I'd rather have the cash.

Bb
Posted By: plainsman456

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

They will still spend and borrow money.

Bet that they get the insurance on the loan as well.
Posted By: ribka

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

Betting a lot more credit card use before this clears up

The average balance on a credit card is now almost $6,200, and the typical American holds four credit cards, according to the credit bureau Experian. Credit card issuers are also giving Americans more room to run up debt, boosting the typical credit limit by 20% over the last decade to $31,000.Feb 12, 2020




Originally Posted by AKwolverine
Originally Posted by ribka
Originally Posted by JCMCUBIC
Originally Posted by Bristoe
I don't know. I know that when this Corona schitt passes, manufacturers are going to crank up hard.


I'm no economist but I can understand lots of businesses may be hurting now......but I agree with Bristoe that when things settle down lots of producers are really going to produce.

I'm not sure how long it will take for this stuff to settle down....hopefully spring/summer will help end it quicker. Long, slow, drawn out will really hurt......



They will but will consumers have money to purchase in 3 months at same rate as before virus? That is the question. Concerned that some percentage of current lay offs could be permanent.

I can’t imagine that the consumer confidence or willingness to purchase on credit will miraculously rebound to the same level as January ‘20. I think this thing takes a while to play out - and some things are headed for a “new normal” I’m afraid.
Posted By: Tealblue

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

The average balance on a credit card is now almost $6,200, and the typical American holds four credit cards, according to the credit bureau Experian. Credit card issuers are also giving Americans more room to run up debt, boosting the typical credit limit by 20% over the last decade to $31,000.Feb 12, 2020

I'm WAYYYYYY below average and the people I know are as well. Never come close to that.
Posted By: AKwolverine

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

Ribka,
Absolutely true. I was thinking more along the lines of discretionary / non essential items, but failed to specify that.
Thanks.
Posted By: ribka

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

Originally Posted by AKwolverine
Ribka,
Absolutely true. I was thinking more along the lines of discretionary / non essential items, but failed to specify that.
Thanks.
Posted By: ribka

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

yep. I think the discretionary item manufacturers will take a big hit. Should have been more specific in my post

Originally Posted by ribka
Originally Posted by AKwolverine
Ribka,
Absolutely true. I was thinking more along the lines of discretionary / non essential items, but failed to specify that.
Thanks.

Posted By: Stormin_Norman

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

We are already in a recession, how long and how deep is the question. I think we will be down 30%, and it's going to be 6 months long. But full recovery will take 2-3 years. This corona thing is going to linger for another 12-18 months before we get a vaccine, The next 2-3 months are going to be wild on wall street while we sort this out.
Posted By: kwg020

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

Originally Posted by AKCHOPPER
Never chase stocks that pay a dividend! They're not all that they seem.


I'm thinking Johnson and Johnson and Proctor and Gamble are pretty safe bets. They may go down and maybe even cut their dividend for a while but when they come back it will be gang busters. IN other words, some dividend stocks are going to do better than others.

kwg
Posted By: ribka

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

Originally Posted by kwg020
Originally Posted by AKCHOPPER
Never chase stocks that pay a dividend! They're not all that they seem.


I'm thinking Johnson and Johnson and Proctor and Gamble are pretty safe bets. They may go down and maybe even cut their dividend for a while but when they come back it will be gang busters. IN other words, some dividend stocks are going to do better than others.

kwg


Im waiting to pick up more. Think the prices will drop with this quarter's earning reports come out or already factor into price?

Obviously a lot of companies are reducing their dividends temporarily which doesn't concern me. Long term is my concern.
Posted By: nighthawk

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 03/31/20

He who controls the most toilet paper will be king. (Used to be .22 rimfire bricks.)
Posted By: Swifty52

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 04/01/20

Originally Posted by nighthawk
He who controls the most toilet paper will be king. (Used to be .22 rimfire bricks.)


Not true. Went in to Wally World today, lo and behold they had TP, paper towels, bottled water, bleach, lunch meat, frozen pizzas, them gawd awful TV dinners, beef and pig, veggies basically it wasn’t quite normal but pretty close. To my total amazement they had bricks of 22 LR on the shelf for 17.99. Sams club and local grocery chain was even better except for the 22’s. What shortage?
Posted By: Mule Deer

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 04/01/20

One of the problems of "investing" in toilet paper is most American households are already crammed full of, um, schidt. Most don't have room for a lot of fluffy paper....
Posted By: prplbkrr

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 04/01/20

Originally Posted by moosemike

I don't know. Eating out everyday and buying new trucks sounds perfect. And paycheck to paycheck is business as usual. laugh



You need to adjust your budget.
Posted By: irfubar

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 04/01/20

Originally Posted by nighthawk
He who controls the most toilet paper will be king. (Used to be .22 rimfire bricks.)


The mice love that schit.....
Posted By: dale06

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 04/01/20

Originally Posted by Swifty52
Originally Posted by nighthawk
He who controls the most toilet paper will be king. (Used to be .22 rimfire bricks.)


Not true. Went in to Wally World today, lo and behold they had TP, paper towels, bottled water, bleach, lunch meat, frozen pizzas, them gawd awful TV dinners, beef and pig, veggies basically it wasn’t quite normal but pretty close. To my total amazement they had bricks of 22 LR on the shelf for 17.99. Sams club and local grocery chain was even better except for the 22’s. What shortage?


Interesting.
I rarely do any in store shopping, but wife is away for awhile. Went to Walmart tdy and place was quite busy. Lots of tp, hamburger and other necessities. I did not notice any empty shelves. So it seemed business as usual, at least for that brief glimpse. Lots could happen yet.
Posted By: Old_Toot

Re: Preparing for possible upcoming recession - 04/01/20

Originally Posted by hanco
It is gonna get tough I believe. We have plenty food for now! There will be lots of things for sale before long!


And lots of it for sale will be toys, Hanco.

4 guys have already said that they won’t be renewing this coming year in the deer lease, others wanting to sell their shooting houses. Three want to sell their camps.

Sign of the present times but even this, too, will pass.
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