Why am I not seeing any mathematics regarding the seasonal flues?...I do hope and pray that everyone on this earth will be spared from this and everyone will be spared the uninformed dangerous equating of this virus with the flu....My true heartfelt wishes go out to all that may read this....May God and in his absence D. Trump make the difficult decisions that can spare us of the worst of this....Bearit1...
Thank you gentlemen just when I thought the campfire was all in on the chicken little... a moment of clarity
Probably cause you didn't look it up. Google CDC influenza numbers 2020
I can not be moved from my research and feelings regarding this horrific occurrence...Please use TWICE the precaution that you think necessary today and protect all whom you can....
Round 84k people dead from flu, so far, 2019-20 season.
Estimated people that contracted the flu, over and above those known: 39,000,000.
Low mortality rate.
Estimated people that have contracted Covid, over and above those known: 0.
If we want to mix apples and oranges (okay by me), how many vehicle accident lives have been saved due to less travel? How many babies have been saved by restrictions on abortions? etc, etc...
Perhaps because over the last six month the US has experienced 24,000 flu related deaths. Most have been from H1N1, one of the strains listed as Flu A.
Yesterday we suffered over 1000 deaths from Covid 19, today the death toll will be higher than yesterday, and higher the next day.
Will you folks be convinced when a two week death toll from C-19 matches an annual count from all other flus combined? How about when it only takes one week?
ETA: link and quote
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htmKey Points
Nationally, the percent of laboratory specimens testing positive for influenza at clinical laboratories continued to decrease while ILI activity continued to increase. More people are seeking care for respiratory illness due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
Nationally, influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses are the most commonly reported influenza viruses this season. Previously, influenza B/Victoria viruses predominated nationally.
Laboratory confirmed influenza-associated hospitalization rates for the U.S. population overall are higher than most recent seasons and rates for children 0-4 years and adults 18-49 years are the highest CDC has on record for these age groups, surpassing rates reported during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Hospitalization rates for school-aged children (5-17 years) are higher than any recent regular season but remain lower than rates experienced by this age group during the pandemic.
Pneumonia and influenza mortality levels have been low, but 155 influenza-associated deaths in children have been reported so far this season. This number is higher than recorded at the same time in every season since reporting began in 2004-05, except for the 2009 pandemic.
CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 39 million flu illnesses, 400,000 hospitalizations and 24,000 deaths from flu.
Antiviral medications are an important adjunct to flu vaccine in the control of influenza. Almost all (>99%) of the influenza viruses tested this season are susceptible to the four FDA-approved influenza antiviral medications recommended for use in the U.S. this season.
Any nonsensical comparisons with already existing death rates do not apply...Many people do not recognize that these deaths and the resulting permanent lung damage to the survivors{fibrosis of the lungs} is not comprehending the long term suffering that unfortunately has already begun....very hard even to type this as the rate of misery is only now just starting....ADVISE and PROTECT yourself and your loved ones today and tomorrow...I am...
Go ahead and talk it away....
Round 84k people dead from flu, so far, 2019-20 season.
Estimated people that contracted the flu, over and above those known: 39,000,000.
Low mortality rate.
Estimated people that have contracted Covid, over and above those known: 0.
The current CDC ESTIMATE for flu related deaths for the 2019-2020 flu season is 24,000 to 62,000.
Go ahead and show us where you get that 62,000 number from.
I showed mine. Let's see yours.
We will be VERY lucky if 24,000 to 62,000 deaths were the numbers we are talking about with this Covid 19 virus, or THE ASIAN/WUHAN FLU, as I prefer to call it (screw political correctness). NOT to fear monger, but I have a feeling we will see numbers 10x that or more, before Memorial Day.
Keep your family home/safe, and pray for the Drs, nurses and other healthcare professionals that are on the front lines of this nightmare! -TomT
So like you are trying to say is that it will never enter YOUR home?....
I'm hoping most of you HAVEN'T had this hit close to home yet, but I have 2 friends on ventilators. One 58, the other 70. This is NO JOKE! They were FINE last week.
Whether this was released on the world intentionally, or unintentionally, it's a [bleep] for sure. I can tell you this, I will NEVER eat a Chinese restaurant again, and I will leave ANY product made in China where it lays at the store. Yes, I KNOW that will limit my purchasing options, and I could care less if anyone thinks it's racist! -TomT
How about:
flu: exact number of people infected unknown, death rate from known infections 0.1%
COVID-19: exact number of people infected unknown, death rate from known infections 4-5%
Go ahead and show us where you get that 62,000 number from.
I showed mine. Let's see yours.
Not sure if that was for me or the alternate reality.
I got mine from the CDC.
He got his from combining the flu and pneumonia.
So you disparage the “media” yet you combine flu and pneumonia deaths and attempt to represent them all as the flu?
In fact I"ve been a member of this website since 2007...Many people have been a great source of information and support...I am retired now and am no longer involved in the healthcare of intercity individuals....A thing to be mindful of is that this disease is going from the TOP DOWN....the spread is from individuals who have been able to travel....it really is only starting to affect the inner city folks....the real mass hysteria and political BS is yet to come...just one mans opinion...
How about:
flu: exact number of people infected unknown, death rate from known infections 0.1%
COVID-19: exact number of people infected unknown, death rate from known infections 4-5%
The flu mortality rate is calculated by using the 39 milllion estimate for infection and the deaths attributed to the flu.
The 39 million is people they estimate had the flu but didn't seek treatment.
The Covid mortality rate is calculated by the estimate for infection, and the deaths attributed to Covid.
Except when it's Covid, the estimate for infection is: 0.
In the whole United States of America, nobody's ever got Covid that hasn't tested positive for Covid.
Not one person.
For a cold that 80% of people might not even notice they had.
So the mortality rate is skewed, in favor of hysteria.
So you disparage the “media” yet you combine flu and pneumonia deaths and attempt to represent them all as the flu?
No. That's what the CDC does.
It's from their data. And it's the same formula they've used for years.
Because people that were on death's door, like many Covid victims, died from pneumonia that's generally caused by the flu, although there's no test performed because the official cause of death doesn't matter.
WHO is useless....they are after the fact....Fauci has been sucking hind tit for twenty years with nothing else to do...seems like a nice guy but that isn't going to help the people you love....USE EXTREME CAUTION OVER THE NEXT MONTH....DO NOT catch this on the first pass...Hopefully over the next year they will come up with a TREATMENT that can save lives....in 17 years NOBODY has come up with a vaccine for the two previous SARS ....give that a bit of thought if you have the time...
Sometimes I wonder why New Yorkers were not smart enough to shelter in place...then I read [bleep] like this.
Death by stupidity and carelessness...coming to a small town near you
The covid death rate is hard to nail down because they only use the number of people who have tested positive. Not tge total number of people who may have had it and not tested.
So the 3-4% is not really accurate. However if it is only 1% and it is 2-3 times more transmittable than flu. You could see 80-120 million infections. So your looking at possibly 800k-1.2 M deaths. This is what has all the politicians spooked. Lets face it. With no heard immunity its going to keep going until there is a vaccine or enough people get it and it runs out of hosts. They are just trying to spread out the infection rate to not wind up like Italy. Most likely the numbers will start to level off they loosen restrictions and it flares up again. Unless people take appropriate measures to slow the spread it could get really bad real quick.
How about:
flu: exact number of people infected unknown, death rate from known infections 0.1%
COVID-19: exact number of people infected unknown, death rate from known infections 4-5%
The flu mortality rate is calculated by using the 39 milllion estimate for infection and the deaths attributed to the flu.
The 39 million is people they estimate had the flu but didn't seek treatment.
The Covid mortality rate is calculated by the estimate for infection, and the deaths attributed to Covid.
Except when it's Covid, the estimate for infection is: 0.
In the whole United States of America, nobody's ever got Covid that hasn't tested positive for Covid.
Not one person.
For a cold that 80% of people might not even notice they had.
So the mortality rate is skewed, in favor of hysteria.
And how is the present rate of 1000 deaths per day and growing rapidly skewed?
So you disparage the “media” yet you combine flu and pneumonia deaths and attempt to represent them all as the flu?
No. That's what the CDC does.
It's from their data. And it's the same formula they've used for years.
Because people that were on death's door, like many Covid victims, died from pneumonia that's generally caused by the flu, although there's no test performed because the official cause of death doesn't matter.
Except that not all pneumonia is viral caused. Lots of bacterial pneumonia. And other virus besides flu causes pneumonia. Though H1N1 is very prevalent.
When the Italian Govt. gave the people of Lombardy province 3 days warning that they were going to eat them off it gave between 10,000-18000 folks enough time to flee....half of them had family and friends in NY....in no way am I picking on Italians...since BC times everybody has thrown the wife and kids in the cart, hitched the horse to it and ran for their lives...everyone reading this would do the same thing.....sorry should read "seal them off".....very well documented by the Greeks and Romans from the BC days....
How about:
flu: exact number of people infected unknown, death rate from known infections 0.1%
COVID-19: exact number of people infected unknown, death rate from known infections 4-5%
The flu mortality rate is calculated by using the 39 milllion estimate for infection and the deaths attributed to the flu.
The 39 million is people they estimate had the flu but didn't seek treatment.
The Covid mortality rate is calculated by the estimate for infection, and the deaths attributed to Covid.
Except when it's Covid, the estimate for infection is: 0.
In the whole United States of America, nobody's ever got Covid that hasn't tested positive for Covid.
Not one person.
For a cold that 80% of people might not even notice they had.
So the mortality rate is skewed, in favor of hysteria.
And how is the present rate of 1000 deaths per day and growing rapidly skewed?
Been over that before.
There's no way to determine which people died "with" Covid, as opposed to those that died "from" Covid.
Although occasionally some site is honest enough to report that it's about 80% that were in a position that a health issue would be terminal.
So the actual Covid mortality rate is 80% less than reported.
And, that's assuming no one in the entire country has got the cold virus without being tested, and testing positive for it.
So! My dad can whoop your dad.
None of us unless you are over 100 has seen this before....Please use twice the caution that you already have....
So! My dad can whoop your dad.
Yes, that's pretty much the deal.
There's no actual provable facts with regard to this thing yet.
So the only resort is common sense.
My common sense tells me that, if this thing was really that badass, real numbers would be used, instead of manipulated statistics.
Closest in modern history was in 1918.
Deniers gonna deny!
Closest in modern history was in 1918.
Deniers gonna deny!
1918 is also when the AGW hoax "Hockey Stick" graph took off.
Coincidence? I think not.
Where's Jag on this?
So now foobz is a medical expert.
God hep us all.
The continuous "number of flu infections to number of COVID infections" comparisons from the usual crew of roaming idiots here is tiring.
It is about the acuteness, and volume, as in, "all at once."
But even those dipchits actually get it. They are just here to stir up chit and entertain themselves.
....
It is about the acuteness, and volume, as in, "all at once."
....
Yes, and that's still all about death rates - flatter curves, able to save more people (that's the logic anyway, I sure someone will provide the stats)
There's no way to determine which people died "with" Covid, as opposed to those that died "from" Covid.
Same (flawed) logic applies to your flu numbers.
There's no way to determine which people died "with" Covid, as opposed to those that died "from" Covid.
Same (flawed) logic applies to your flu numbers.
That's why they don't shred the Constitution every year for flu numbers.
You're beginning to get it.
How many lives saved vs how many lives ruined by mandatory .gov closures? How do you actually calculate lives saved?
That math will be interesting to see...
Virus pandemics thin the population occasionally, natural way of things. Those that survive, thrive in the new normal.
The hubris required to believe hiding under the bed will somehow benefit this situation is staggering.
Feelings are currently ruling the decision makers, logic has no place at the table.
How many lives saved vs how many lives ruined by mandatory .gov closures? How do you actually calculate lives saved?
That math will be interesting to see...
Virus pandemics thin the population occasionally, natural way of things. Those that survive, thrive in the new normal.
The hubris required to believe hiding under the bed will somehow benefit this situation is staggering.
Feelings are currently ruling the decision makers, logic has no place at the table.
About as much logic as that in your post.
How many lives saved vs how many lives ruined by mandatory .gov closures? How do you actually calculate lives saved?
That math will be interesting to see...
Virus pandemics thin the population occasionally, natural way of things. Those that survive, thrive in the new normal.
The hubris required to believe hiding under the bed will somehow benefit this situation is staggering.
Feelings are currently ruling the decision makers, logic has no place at the table.
About as much logic as that in your post.
Sorry you are so scared. Lots of that going around.
How many lives saved vs how many lives ruined by mandatory .gov closures? How do you actually calculate lives saved?
That math will be interesting to see...
Virus pandemics thin the population occasionally, natural way of things. Those that survive, thrive in the new normal.
The hubris required to believe hiding under the bed will somehow benefit this situation is staggering.
Feelings are currently ruling the decision makers, logic has no place at the table.
About as much logic as that in your post.
Sorry you are so scared. Lots of that going around.
Says the bad ass.
How many lives saved vs how many lives ruined by mandatory .gov closures? How do you actually calculate lives saved?
That math will be interesting to see...
Virus pandemics thin the population occasionally, natural way of things. Those that survive, thrive in the new normal.
The hubris required to believe hiding under the bed will somehow benefit this situation is staggering.
Feelings are currently ruling the decision makers, logic has no place at the table.
About as much logic as that in your post.
Sorry you are so scared. Lots of that going around.
Says the bad ass.
You can be as scared as you want, free country and all. Not actually a current requirement, however.
Perhaps because over the last six month the US has experienced 24,000 flu related deaths. Most have been from H1N1, one of the strains listed as Flu A.
Yesterday we suffered over 1000 deaths from Covid 19, today the death toll will be higher than yesterday, and higher the next day.
Will you folks be convinced when a two week death toll from C-19 matches an annual count from all other flus combined? How about when it only takes one week?
ETA: link and quote
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htmKey Points
Nationally, the percent of laboratory specimens testing positive for influenza at clinical laboratories continued to decrease while ILI activity continued to increase. More people are seeking care for respiratory illness due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
Nationally, influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses are the most commonly reported influenza viruses this season. Previously, influenza B/Victoria viruses predominated nationally.
Laboratory confirmed influenza-associated hospitalization rates for the U.S. population overall are higher than most recent seasons and rates for children 0-4 years and adults 18-49 years are the highest CDC has on record for these age groups, surpassing rates reported during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Hospitalization rates for school-aged children (5-17 years) are higher than any recent regular season but remain lower than rates experienced by this age group during the pandemic.
Pneumonia and influenza mortality levels have been low, but 155 influenza-associated deaths in children have been reported so far this season. This number is higher than recorded at the same time in every season since reporting began in 2004-05, except for the 2009 pandemic.
CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 39 million flu illnesses, 400,000 hospitalizations and 24,000 deaths from flu.
Antiviral medications are an important adjunct to flu vaccine in the control of influenza. Almost all (>99%) of the influenza viruses tested this season are susceptible to the four FDA-approved influenza antiviral medications recommended for use in the U.S. this season.
I won't. I have been in morgues full of body bags cascading over each other from the flu. I've been in entire ICU wards where flu patients, including children were dying in the teens every day. In one hospital.
You know what we did that year? We issued a statement to wash your hands. I'm not opposed to the idea that those at risk isolate themselves, but this global panic and misinformation is ridiculous.
I'm not interested in any one who suddenly has outrage about seasonal viral deaths in a given year, since this happens every year.
When we hit 35-40K dead in this country, I'll back up and reconsider.
We broke 6000 today. At the trend which has held steady since Feb 29, we are on track to hit 12,000 by Apr 6,
24,000 by Apr 10, and 48,000 deaths by Apr 14.
That is less than two weeks away.
We broke 6000 today. At the trend which has held steady since Feb 29, we are on track to hit 12,000 by Apr 6,
24,000 by Apr 10, and 48,000 deaths by Apr 14.
That is less than two weeks away.
Never met you, but I'm certain your eyes are brown.
Why am I not seeing any mathematics regarding the seasonal flues?...I do hope and pray that everyone on this earth will be spared from this and everyone will be spared the uninformed dangerous equating of this virus with the flu....My true heartfelt wishes go out to all that may read this....May God and in his absence D. Trump make the difficult decisions that can spare us of the worst of this....Bearit1...
Funny. I was thinking the same thing today.
How many lives saved vs how many lives ruined by mandatory .gov closures? How do you actually calculate lives saved?
That math will be interesting to see...
Virus pandemics thin the population occasionally, natural way of things. Those that survive, thrive in the new normal.
The hubris required to believe hiding under the bed will somehow benefit this situation is staggering.
Feelings are currently ruling the decision makers, logic has no place at the table.
About as much logic as that in your post.
Sorry you are so scared. Lots of that going around.
Says the bad ass.
You can be as scared as you want, free country and all. Not actually a current requirement, however.
You’re the only one talking “scared “ around here. Don’t project yourself on others.
Unless it makes you feel bigger than you ain’t.
We broke 6000 today. At the trend which has held steady since Feb 29, we are on track to hit 12,000 by Apr 6,
24,000 by Apr 10, and 48,000 deaths by Apr 14.
That is less than two weeks away.
Never met you, but I'm certain your eyes are brown.
Taken any free gratis hospital tours recently?
And you talk about others’ eyes being brown.
[bleep] bullscchitt artist and blowhard.
Got anymore tall tales to share with the gang here, you being in the know and having all those connections that you espouse?
How many lives saved vs how many lives ruined by mandatory .gov closures? How do you actually calculate lives saved?
That math will be interesting to see...
Virus pandemics thin the population occasionally, natural way of things. Those that survive, thrive in the new normal.
The hubris required to believe hiding under the bed will somehow benefit this situation is staggering.
Feelings are currently ruling the decision makers, logic has no place at the table.
About as much logic as that in your post.
Sorry you are so scared. Lots of that going around.
Says the bad ass.
You can be as scared as you want, free country and all. Not actually a current requirement, however.
You’re the only one talking “scared “ around here. Don’t project yourself on others.
Unless it makes you feel bigger than you ain’t.
Simmer down.
You have been posting to the fire every five minutes for the last 3 weeks. Life is still actually occurring out here.
When was the last time you went outside?
How many lives saved vs how many lives ruined by mandatory .gov closures? How do you actually calculate lives saved?
That math will be interesting to see...
Virus pandemics thin the population occasionally, natural way of things. Those that survive, thrive in the new normal.
The hubris required to believe hiding under the bed will somehow benefit this situation is staggering.
Feelings are currently ruling the decision makers, logic has no place at the table.
About as much logic as that in your post.
Sorry you are so scared. Lots of that going around.
Says the bad ass.
You can be as scared as you want, free country and all. Not actually a current requirement, however.
You’re the only one talking “scared “ around here. Don’t project yourself on others.
Unless it makes you feel bigger than you ain’t.
Simmer down.
You have been posting to the fire every five minutes for the last 3 weeks. Life is still actually occurring out here.
When was the last time you went outside?
Doing fine here. If you’d read some of the posts you’d know.
Kid took her 83 yr old grandma to the grocery today.
Told her make a list and she'd get it for her.
Nope.
She insisted she had to go with.
Told the kid the Nazis didn't get her, tornadoes haven't gotten her and if a virus does, oh well (she refuses to go into any basement due to hiding underground as a kid).
How exactly do you calculate lives saved?
Pope's Swiss bank account?
Pope's Swiss bank account?
Hahaaha! Probably the most accurate reckoning available...
The irony; when a fire member uses a cnn article from 2018 as a source ...
The initial 79 k estimate for ‘17/‘18 was later revised to 61K.
Still a nasty year.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm
In the whole United States of America, nobody's ever got Covid that hasn't tested positive for Covid.
Not one person.
This makes no sense. Most people who get infected are never tested. So most people who get infected haven't tested positive.
This conversation got me wondering what the false negative rate for covid-19 tests was so I did a quick search. Here's one article that cites a study of the false negative rate.. The false negative rate for the RT-PCR test was pegged at 30%:
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/85717Here's another article that cites a 3% false negative rate, and an example of a man who tested negative multiple times before he died from the virus, admittedly, not in the US:
https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=228250"Reports suggest some people test negative up to six times even though they are infected with the virus, according to the BBC and Chinese media. Such was the case with Dr. Li Wenliang, the ophthalmologist who first identified the outbreak and was reprimanded by Chinese authorities when he tried to warn others.
Dr. Wenliang developed a cough and fever after unknowingly treating an infected patient. He was hospitalized, testing negative for coronavirus several times before eventually receiving a positive result. On Jan. 30 the doctor posted: "Today nucleic acid testing came back with a positive result, the dust has settled, finally diagnosed," according to the BBC. Dr. Wenliang passed away on February 7 in Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak."
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