The surgeon general stated last Sunday, this week was going to be horrific, like Pearl Harbor & 9-11 ...... oh my, that is scary. One small problem...... do you still believe?







STUNNING! IHME Reduces Their Model Predictions AGAIN! -- Now Say Peak Is ON EASTER and Only 60,000 Deaths ...Like a Typical Flu!
By Jim Hoft
Published April 8, 2020 at 10:19am
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Last TUESDAY Coronavirus Task Force Response Coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx pushed the talking point that by completely locking down the US economy and American public, the US government and Coronavirus task force “experts” were able to cut the total coronavirus deaths in the United States from 1 to 2.2 million deaths down to 100,000 to 200,000 deaths.


That was a stunning update. They revised their numbers down by around 90%!
You’d think that would have made a few headlines?

This was based on “models” by her chosen scientific “experts” — Chris Murray and the IHME.

Here is the chart Dr. Birx discussed during the daily coronavirus press conference at the White House.

TRENDING: UPDATE: Dr. Birx Confirms Anyone Who Dies WITH Coronavirus, Regardless of Any Underlying Health Condition, is Being Counted as a COVID-19 Death (VIDEO)

It shows an estimated 2.2 million US deaths.
Again — this was at the press conference 6 days ago!



There is not a single country in the world today with over 18,000 total coronavirus deaths.

On Sunday night the IMHE cut their numbers in half.

Today the IMHE model used by the CDC and Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci estimate the total US coronavirus deaths to be 81,766 by August 4th.
And 81,000 by May 21st.



The actual numbers are already below their current models. — by a huge margin!

Dr. Andrew Bostom published the actual numbers to the projected numbers earlier on Tuesday.



The actual number of US deaths due to coronavirus on Monday was: 10,068 deaths.
The estimated IHME model number of deaths by Monday was: 12,539 (range of 11,256 – 14,281)

The IHME numbers are already off by 20%!

On Wednesday — 3 days later — the updated their predictions AGAIN!
The latest IHME predictions call for 60,000 deaths by August.



And the model predicts the peak will now be on EASTER and not on April 19th which was their previous prediction!



This is starting to look like a typical flu more and more by the day!

For the record, The Gateway Pundit predicted this:

No chicken littles want to comment?

Only a little over 399,929 illnesses and at least 12,911 deaths, as of this morning according to FOX News.

The Death Toll is not growing exponentially like most here predicted. Fauci has sold Trump a load of schitt.

And ruined our Economy.

Sooo, with fairly extraordinary precautions and actions....we limit things to a fairly terrible flu year?





Just to understand....through taking extraordinary actions....we keep it to a moderately dull roar?

Bad....but, far from apocalyptic, like many predicted! I’m sure that the extreme measures that were taken has helped tremendously. But, the destruction of the growing American economy.....was a cost that will be with us for years. And....potentially putting us at a position of being “more” dependent upon the “chicoms”! memtb

Jim read this...

Tucker mentioned it last night also


https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/20...ts-social-distancing-still-off-millions/

Coronavirus Task Force Response Coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx last week pushed the talking point that by shutting down the US economy the Trump administration, US government and Coronavirus task force were able to cut the total coronavirus deaths in the United States from 1-2 million to 100,000 to 200,000.


This was based on “models” by her chosen scientific “experts.”

This truly was outrageous.



TRENDING: UPDATE: Dr. Birx Confirms Anyone Who Dies WITH Coronavirus, Regardless of Any Underlying Health Condition, is Being Counted as a COVID-19 Death (VIDEO)

Ten days ago on Sunday Dr. Deborah Birx spoke at the daily White House coronavirus press conference.

She followed Dr. Anthony Fauci who earlier estimated the United States will see from 100,000 to 200,000 coronavirus deaths in the coming weeks and months.

Dr. Birx said the Task Force is reevaluating numbers and is in agreement with the Chris Murray study that was released last Thursday.

The Chris Murray and IHME models have been consistently wrong in their outlandish over estimations of coronavirus deaths.

Dr. Birx said all of the flu models predicted somewhere between 1.6 and 2.2 million deaths if the government did not mitigate.

Dr Birx said some models predicted half of the United States would be infected.

There is not a single country that has seen more than 18,000 deaths from the virus. Yet, Dr. Birx told the American public that the US was going to see over one million deaths.

This was complete rubbish.

Now this…
The social distancing was ALREADY baked in the models before the drop in coronavirus deaths and BEFORE the models were updated.

In fact the flawed models by the “experts” predicted 40 million could die without social distancing!
40 million!

The social distancing was ALREADY baked into the models.

The Business Insider reported on this back on March 27th.

Without implementing strategies like lockdowns to reduce the spread of the novel coronavirus, there would have been 7 billion infections and 40 million deaths in 2020 alone, according to a report published Thursday from researchers at the Imperial College of London…

…They modeled how many infections, deaths, critical cases, and hospital bed shortages there could be based on four different scenarios: no government intervention, some social distancing, enhanced social distancing protecting the elderly, and wide-scale intensive social distancing.

Their models predict that if authorities took steps to shield the elderly and slow viral transmission, 20 million lives could be saved worldwide.

“But we predict that even in this scenario, health systems in all countries will be quickly overwhelmed,” the authors wrote…

…If such measures are adopted “immediately” and sustained for a long period, the researchers predict 38.7 million lives could be spared worldwide. If those measures are not implemented until the death rate is higher, their model shows 30.7 million lives could be saved.

Dr. Birx was peddling complete garbage in order to make her flawed models appear logical.
The social distancing was already baked in the models.

Dr. Birx was not honest with the American public.

60k (maybe) dead vs 10 million plus out of work and the bankruptcy of millions of businesses. Generational debt issues added to the issues we already have.

The American public and half the campfire think is was a fair trade......

That damn Fubarski, he is the problem.... extreme sarcasm

The SG’s credibility-hourglass is running out...

Since when does the S.G. fear monger?

If the deaths increase, Fauci wins. He will say I told ya so.

If deaths don't increase, Fauci wins. He will say see, shutting down the economy worked.

The loser may be Trump. The economy, which was his strong suit, won't come back as fast as we'd like. And the longer the lockdown goes on, the fewer gaffes Biden will get a chance to make.

I've been right here with you whole time.

A tad bit of common sense could've gone a long, long way with this but nooooo, lets bankrupt the whole freakin country!

I said here several weeks ago, on several different threads, that it was a hoax. Second greatest hoax ever pulled on the American people, second only to the Halfrican. Several basically said I was crazy.

Yes, there is a big rush to get back to working for the PRC.



Welcome to Walmart.......how may I help you?

Thanks Raeford, I know you have been.... my frustration level is red lining.... we need to stop the nonsense

And guess which major country is ramping manufacturing back up ahead of us.
While we're a month out[minimum] of even getting started again.

It will be more scary than Pearl Harbor, because unlike today back then people had a backbone. One of the most effective ways to campaign against the West is to scare them with concept of death. Divided and scared people can be easily conquered. Today this is not done militarily but economically.

Another month and the small business's won't be coming back

Love it Jim. Apparently more people took these actions more seriously than we thought and they worked.

Who are the biggest Trump supporters? a clue, small business owners...... see how the dots connect? can you say agenda? hello

And a lot big ones too.

I went to the store the other day. People were six feet apart in the line. Some were wearing masks. I thought, this is like a ridiculous movie.

And it all came about because our government lies. I have zero respect for the two doctors and the third one who is the surgeon general.
They use the same type of thinking as the climate changers: LIBERAL!

I am a small business owner and business has sucked under Trump.


I will vote for him again.


I think we are taking steps to protect the economy....not destroy it.

If this is Pearl Harbor or 9/11 who are we going to war with? China? Italy? We need to kick someones ass, right?

Has this whole thing been a major over reaction? I dont know. Maybe. No one can agree.



I happen to have more faith in the country though.


If this quarantine kills us.....fugg.....what would happen if something really serious happened?



Canada invades for instance? Oh well........start practicing now.



Oh, Canada........our something and native land......

As am I Jim, ours was finally getting back to 'pre-Obama' levels[profitable] and now WTF knows where we'll end up?
We're doing 1/6 of our normal business and March-June is our profitable time.
Not happening this year.

Hmm, I just know enough, to know I don't know anything. The world economy is in the tank however.

Jim, when you live under depression conditions, when the depression comes to your front door , it's like what's the difference .... eh

Well, in respect to your situation Reaford....we never really noticed the 08 disaster.


We signed on for the Trade War because we believed that China was killing us.


I think we need to do what ever it takes to wean ourselves off of China commie tit.


If that means an economic reboot.....well....we already signed on for the Trade war as I said.



They are gonna open up South America any time now cause they are out of hamburger..........




I guess am just selfish, but all my friends are in the high risk category and if I can help keep them healthy I will.

I live in a dem state, surrounded by farmers and blue collar people - typicals that generationally vote Dem. We all talk - not a single one of them blames their current economic situation on Trump, not to the negative. They all blame it on an act of God - the bug, so to speak.

Some are starting to turn on our governor which is good - he's a tool and all frustration I've seen here - it's all localized, not national in scope.

For sure.


We were talking about it yesterday...Dad and I.



We are poor AF out here. The whole area mostly.




My kids can go outside and ride their bikes or horses. We can step outside and shoot wildly in every direction.



I cant imagine being in a big city and staring at the wall of your apartment. Kids cant go to the park because its locked down.



Jims own personal level of hell that would be.




So weirdly...we are broke...but not suffering near as much as others. Lucky.




Half the fugging country is high risk...........Folks in Sweden are saying the NR article is BS. They are pretty well shut down.


I cant make up my mind as fast as you guys I guess!

I am remaining optimistic, but I'm not doing a victory dance just yet.

Yesterday was over 1900 deaths in this country. Worse day so far for the body count.

If the other large cities follow NYC/NJ, we still have some tough time ahead.

I do hope we have made a difference though, and sooner than later, we can get this country back up and running with a full head of steam.

Amen.

The China flu is turning into a hurricane.

When hurricanes come ppl stop. Board up windows. Stock up. Then it changes course. Then next one to come, folks are then why bother?


If if happens again far less ppl with be apt to shut down and shelter in place.

Rest assured that I am not doing anything that would intentionally harm anyone-I'm following the 6' rule, washing hands, grocer once weekly etc but I will not be wearing a mask[even though I now catch the stink eye at the post office etc]
I have active vibrant parents that are 83 & 84 and MIL is 80, we call only to check in daily.

100% on board with getting off of the China tit!

Exactly right '''Trump isn't going to get the blame'''' , he's did the best he could to balance what came his way .

Trumps poll numbers are rising , he is looking like a leader.......
So the left needs to extend the crisis until it hurts Trump.....

We have not gotten through this yet. If we stop all of the precautions too soon this is where we will be.
kwg
https://bunkerbasics.com/coronavirus-second-wave/

Why the Second Wave of the Coronavirus Could be Worse Than the First
March 13, 2020 by Bunker Bob

The Coronavirus Won’t Go Away for Good
The coronavirus is dragging the world into a recession. Travel bans, celebrity infections, and declining stock prices are sending people into a state of panic. Efforts to contain the spread are stepping up, as more rapid tests are being developed and administered. The pharmaceutical industry is doing everything it can to develop a vaccine. That said, the process of testing and ensuring the safety of a vaccine takes months. So, the coronavirus isn’t going away any time soon.

Evidence suggests the coronavirus is seasonal. The warmer months may offer us reprieve from the chaos. South American countries like Argentina and Chile have a very low case count, since they’re at the tail end of summer. As the first wave tapers out through April and June, we should not grow complacent. The coronavirus is too easily transmitted to go away for good. If we refer to history for guidance, we’ll find that a virus’s second wave can be worse than the first. Let’s turn to the Spanish Flu to see what we might expect from the coronavirus.

The Second Wave of the Spanish Flu Was Deadlier Than the First
The Spanish Flu of 1918 was caused by the H1N1 virus. More lives were lost to the pandemic than there were second waveto World War I. As many as fifty million people, including 675,000 Americans, died over the course of two years. The second wave, which occurred in the fall of 1918, was especially deadly. The virus originally surfaced in an army base in Kansas. While highly contagious, mortality rates were comparable to those of the seasonal flu. That all changed as troops deployed to Europe spread a mutated virus to England, France, Spain, and Italy.

The mutated H1N1 virus was far deadlier. It was also indiscriminate. Young, middle aged, and the elderly were all at risk of contracting the Spanish Flu. With medical personnel on the battlefield, there were fewer healthcare workers to care for the sick. These days, healthcare is far superior to what it was during the early 20th century. However, we’re clearly incapable of preventing a pandemic. Can we avoid the grim reality that befell those contending with the Spanish Flu?

The Virus Will Kick Us While We’re Down
We’re seeing what an invisible pathogen can do to the economy. Over a trillion dollars has been wiped from the stock market. Central banks are doing what they can to stem the bleeding. I’m confident that we’ll get through this. What scares me, though, is that when life appears to be returning to normal, the second wave will hit. I don’t expect we’ll experience the same level of panic as we are during this first wave. However, the failure to sustain a recovery can send the world into an even deeper recession. How far down is the bottom? I don’t know, but we’re going to endure a lot of pain as we find out.

A Vaccine Is Our Only Hope of Killing It
second waveHow can we finally put the coronavirus in the rear-view mirror? Pharmacological intervention. A vaccine is the only way we can get rid of COVID-19 for good. Again, the coronavirus is too easily transmissible to disappear after this year’s flu season. We need the pharmaceutical industry to eliminate COVID-19 the same way it eliminated smallpox, polio, and the measles. Yes, I understand that those casting doubt on the efficacy of vaccines are leading to a resurgence in otherwise extinct diseases, but I won’t touch upon this here. Funding and research partnerships are needed to accelerate the pace at which this vaccine is developed. Then, and only then, can we feel confident moving passed COVID-19.

Be Prepared to Ride the Second Wave
How do you prepare for the second wave? You should do many of the same things that you’re doing now. Practice good hygiene, engage in social distancing measures, and stock up on essentials. Additionally, you should be preparing financially. I’ve previously discussed the importance of frugality. The coronavirus is a prime example of why it’s so important to be frugal. Identify side hustles that can help diversify your income streams. If you can, continue contributing to your emergency fund. I imagine many of us are staying at home and cutting down on spending. Bank that money for the second wave. Job losses will happen, so it’s important we do what we can from becoming too exposed to the pressures yet to come.

I’d hate to see my readers come up for air, only to be knocked back down by the second wave. Prepare yourself now. Otherwise, you may be washed away with others who thought the worst was over. If history serves as a guide, the troubles are only just beginning.

Do you have advice on how to prepare for the second wave? Leave a comment below or contact me directly.
second wave

I don't care how bad it gets, should never have shut down the economy.

All this social distancing, mask wearing, avoiding crowds, ad nauseum can be done without .guv mandates. The governors, including Buttlock(as my 15 yr old son calls him), the moron we call a gov. here in MT., should be held accountable for the economic destruction they've reaped in the coming months, years, (decade?) ahead.

What are the unemployment claims going to be next week? We're already over 10 million in just two weeks.

The husband of the lady my wife works with is a radiologist in the local hospital system. He basically hasn't worked since the shut down and his office was running 9.0 before the shutdown. He has serious concerns about the back log that is accumulating and how that will put back needed care months down the line for people that have serious health issues or are on the cusp of early cancer diagnosis. And that is just one aspect of the health system.

How many premature deaths are going to occur as a knock on effect caused by shutting everything down? When NATO was bombing the crap out of the Serbs back in the 90's something like 14 civilians were killed for every one Serb soldier. Reminds me of the Janet Reno protocol, "in order to save the children we must kill them".

Like IRFUBAR mentioned, how many small businesses can survive this? We are still looking at weeks if not another month or two of shutdown and then a possible shut down in the fall when the "flu season" starts up again?

...and people are worried about toilet paper... friggin' A!

When Trump cited the 100,000-240,000 death estimate last week many independent doctors questioned how they arrived at those numbers. They felt then that it would be high but not that high. Based on what I'm reading Trumps Corona Virus task force used models showing 50% of the country in a lockdown to get to those numbers. The model predicted 1 million + with no intervention. But with over 90% of the country shut down they are now predicting numbers around 80,000 or maybe even less.

Those death estimates go up to Sept. 1st BTW. If I understand this the deaths should peak in the next week or so and start to decline. But we will still have issues all summer.

I don't like this any better than anyone, but the quickest way to get back to normal is to prevent it from spreading into other areas who so far have not been hit hard.

kwg,
In 40 yrs they have not developed a vaccine for aids, why do they believe this will be different? herd immunity has enabled man to survive for millennium.

But that doesn't serve a political agenda.....

The panic is media driven.

In 2009 we didn't have the panic over H1N1 ...... why?

I'd like to know just who is hurting? Or at least more than normally so.

In a household of 3, of which 2 are working, both are still employed. And we were actively employed until yesterday when my wife was referred to the covid 19 test center for a nasal swab test. We are now confined to the property by the county health authority pending results of her test. 4-10 days, supposedly.

Up til yesterday we carried on normal business with the exception of our habit of dining at local establishments. But we still support those establishments by ordering carry-out on a frequent basis.
The biggest change for us is not attending regular church services, but we always tithe via online payment and it continues.

Even today, confined to our property we bought lunch for the covid 19 test team at the local hospital using a debit card over the phone. And the drive thru for this deli is busy daily, albeit on reduced hours.

Granted, if my wife is ill with covid 19 she will be the first in our county. And IF SO, I was undoubtedly the vector of illness for her, as I work in a city 60 miles from home and there are several confirmed cases at my place of work. My employer is Critical Defense and Transportation Infrastructure, and has no plans to shut down.

And with all that has gone on I still don't know anyone who has this virus as a confirmed case. My place of work is pretty big with 2500 or so folks working 24/7. Don't even personally know those who are ill there. The passing of Joe Diffie and John Prine has an impact on me. Diffie was a friend of and occasional fishing partner of a co-worker. His song "Ships" could be my personal anthem. Prine reminds us that even those with different world views can have roots like us.

If my wife should perish or become chronically ill, and it be confirmed as covid19 then it would hurt us. Same with friends family, and so on. But that is not the reality yet, and may never be.

Think it's time for the wife and I to sit out in the sun for a bit...

we dam well need to cut all strings with china fugg them and go back to making our own stuff

Written a month ago and based off numbers/science we know to be very wrong today. Remember, if you die in your bathtub with a toaster - they think you MAY have had CV19 - they'll mark it a CV19 death.

A MN doctor got a 7 page document to fill out death certs with CV-19 diagnosis EVEN if that wasn't COD from the Minnesota dept of health.

Why do you think that is?

Is this a joke? you really can't figure out who is hurting? wtf

Guess as long as your government job supplies a paycheck all is ok?

Probably go down in History as the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on America.

That's where I am.

Ezike Emanuel says we need to shut down for 18 months...... wishing and hoping is nice but won't help at this point. Agendas need served

Fuqking gooks are laughing.

Watch the video playlist I provided for you.

Your answers are all contained within.

How will this mess affect car sales?
Nobody making cars.
People proly not gonna rush out and buy a new car when things start back up.

But those that could afford a new car, proly had enough $ stashed to weather the shutdown and really may not have taken any hit due to employment type.

The JD Byrider mofos proly in a pickle.

Credit, mortgage and auto finance places are making allowances for those with a COVID crunch.
This isn't like 2008 where jobs were lost and everybody said "tough chit".
Maybe from that crap, some middle class folks figured out they ought to be more responsible with their money and in that, are
better able to come out of this nonsense relatively unscathed.

It’s starting to sound more like the “Curse of Oak Island”. Every day is a “could be, could have, might...”

Free beer tomorrow right?

How many died in 09?

60 million got H1N1 and 12,500 died in the US

Thats about what I found too.

Seems like it took a lot longer?

How long before the sharks get hungry though?

It did.

New York 5489 deaths divided by 19,795,791 people = 0.00027%

Actually, 0.00027 is 0.027% when you convert from decimal to percentage, but it is still rather small.

smaller than this bicycle?

Trump is destroying the Fed. He ran the markets up before this hit from the deep state. We would be screwed without that having happened.

He will drive the central banks out of the Fed business and nationalize it.

Notice, always before .Gov had the Fed printing money and giving it to the Central Bank(ers), ECB, IMF.

Now hes going to pay them back. Who is He giving the promissory notes to? Hes giving it to small businesses and the folks. That's why the big banks are balking. The community banks are responding.They see the handwriting on the wall.

I think Trump will "Getter Done".

Cars?

Toyota shut down KY ops till May, Fiat too.

What would the death toll be without having shut schiett down including airtravel, hotels, resturants... and imposed social distancing.

Like, what percent of the kids from UT who chartered a plane to Mexico for spring break got it?

Well, heres the CDC official figures as of today...

12754 US deaths

That 690 since yesterday

The day before they spiked at 3154


So it looks like the tide might be turning...but do you still believe?



I'm not thinking the Virus is Armageddon, I'm thinking we've been systematically lied to about a lot of things on a lot of levels.

Wife and two daughters work at the Hospital in critical care departments that weren't effected by shutting down elective surgeries.

My family is at extreme risk to catch this viral infection. I believe I already had it in January but thats just hopeful wishing without any proof until the antibody testing becomes widespread. If I don't get infected and die first.

Everyday we go thru a household decontamination procedure of wiping everything down that can be touched. Wife and hospital daughter who lives with us change outback and stuff clothes in outside laundry bag then immediately take showers.

We also pull childcare duty for our grandson three nights a week as other daughter, who works in Radiology and has daily contact with infected and potentially infected patients doesn't want her son going anywhere else when her husband has to work, another essential worker outside of healthcare thank goodness.

I was extremely skeptical in early February of the damage and severity this pathogen could wreak.

That skepticism was gone by late February after spending tens of hours reading pre-Covid19 research, articles and pandemic readiness commission reports from years past.

This for sure is a societal and cultural changing event.

Was this the best plan for attacking this viral problem? Doubtful but there never is a best plan when your behind the bus and its rolling backward with no brakes.

Hindsight sight will always be 20/20, Nature is always trying to kill us every minute of the day.

My "opinion" currently is that distance mitigation and shutdown did help avoid a potential partial societal melt down. It reduced the load on the healthcare infrastructure for ALL morbidities and illnesses needing to be dealt with and built a large slack in the system and time for the US to gain a foothold and momentum to deal with the problem.

Nothings perfect and I might be infected as I write this.

Oh well gotta go shopping now for my parents who have been locked away for the last four weeks.

Where in the world did you come up with me working a government job?

And the only thing shut down within a hundred miles of me are casinos and state parks. If you worked for either one I'd feel sorry for you on the best of days.

Who exactly is hurt? Asking again...

The county meat wagon is making three passes a day now.

Actually there have been 4 verified cases in the entire county. In the last week 3 have been moved to the "recovered" column.

Literally thousands of bars and restaurants and their employees in WI.

I know - I'm friends with almost every one of them in my town. They're barely treading water but given that this is the time of year they need to make $$ to get them through winter - they're going to go under.

They might limp through this summer but next fall/winter without this summer's revenue will kill them.

Agreed, except the last part. I think it will be an eye opener for America to build some stuff here. This put a great big dagger in the heart of "Global Economy" - the Democratic dream child.

We changed our actions, and that's changing the results:

Dammit Jim - they're graphic illustrations of the Dunning-Kruger effect, not doctors!

Ok genuis, share your bona fides........ lets compare

Many geniuses share my theories..... do they suffer from Dunning /Kruger?

Fuuuckin tool

Dammit....now I am gonna have to look up Dunning/Kruger.......aren't I?

Oh and dumbass, share your solutions, you haven't so I assume you go along with the experts?

A clue moron , if you research my post I have stated alternatives to what has been done.

I will repeat them for you.

1. Identify the vulnerable
2. quarantine the vulnerable
3. Identify resources of the vulnerable
3. No resources the government should help
4. If necessary commandeer motels/hotels to house them
5. Identify hot spots

Basically put resources where the problem is and let young healthy people work and move about.....
One size fits all approach is plain stupid
So genius your turn

You may want to get evaluated for Dunning/Kruger

Too stupid to know what they don't know Jim

The part where you said "critical defense & transportation"..... so you don't deal in government contracts?

As far as who is suffering, every non essential small business and the employee's of said business, you really don't get that?

Small business account for 44% of the US economy, now they are an endangered species thanks to the experts "models" junk science, and those of you in the scientific community better start policing your own. If you don't , you lose credibility along with the junk peddlers.

I work in the transportation industry - this is no joke and real statistics UNLIKE the number infected or killed in this pandemic.

Right now the amount of freight in the system is LESS then 2018 which was a good year for freight. Think about how much our population and economy has grown in 2 years. We're back below that inside of 3 weeks. At this time in 2018, 24-26% of all offers to a carrier were flat rejected on a contract basis because the spot market paid so much better. Looking at 8% right now - mostly because Brokers have added a 15% "CV19 uncertainty surcharge" to their quotes and will ride that to the end. Transportation companies laying off double digit percentages of their people, rest taking hair cuts - because the freight isn't there. No freight - no economy. No Jobs.

40% of all freight in this country is CV19 resilient - consumer products, medical supplies and the like. 60% is what would be considered "non-essential" and that my friends is a HUGE chunk of our consumer economy and it really does affect those people with jobs that depend on it. Which is more than just a few.

I bring up transportation because we see a recovery before everyone else - same with a recession. Right now - freight levels and rates are scary.

On average - it costs almost 1.40 a mile to run a truck. (varies from niche to niche/region and size) There's so many trucks right now fighting over little freight - .80 cents a mile rates are being offered and taken by carriers to keep revenue moving and get guys some sort of paycheck. Same lanes 2 weeks ago were over 2.60 a mile and you were lucky to find a truck - so much freight moving.

I also have been saying it overblown. It is people, open your damn eyes. Why is the stock market up 10% this week? Use your imagination. We weren’t every going to hit these huge death totals. Never.

In MN we have 39 deaths and about 1000 cases, a number of those have fully recovered. Average age dead is 86. You tell me, was it worth shutting everything down for 2 months and killing tons of good jobs? I think not!

Trump needs to pivot quick because he’s going to do battle with Democratic governors who have a whole other agenda!!

One more time

Interesting read, thanks

Jeeesus Hanco... that is so wrong... yet so right

I think she’s nuts, and over the top. You need a balanced approach considering the country’s economy too. These scientists and politicians often have tunnel vision and they don’t care if they kill the golden goose with their recommendations.

5th attempt at a duly elected President, nothing more, nothing less.

Over reporting isn't the case in NYC, at least according to their department of health:

"The announcement comes as New York City, which has been hardest-hit by the virus, saw its largest single-day toll so far from the COVID-19 pandemic, with 727 dying in a 24-hour period.

However, even those numbers failed to include many instances when first responders encountered someone who had already died at home or in other non-hospital settings. That happened 280 times on Monday, according to data from the city's Fire Department.

While not all of those deaths are necessarily caused by COVID-19, it's a sharp increase over the average 25 home deaths per day the city was experiencing before the pandemic swept the five boroughs."

Aids is passed by risky behavior. This is passed just by breathing if someone infected has been in the area 3 hours previous. I don't think we can return to "normal" by May 1st. I think this thing is going to be an issue for a whole year. Hopefully, there will be better research on stopping it or immunizing folks against it by September 1st so the kids can go back to school and America back to work.

kwg

I'm not bothering to read 5 pages of redundant bullshit, but it was reported today that 86% of the fatalities in NYC had pre existing health issues.....so on the bright side, if we saved a million lives by crashing the global economy, not only did it just cost us about 2 trillion dollars (according to the world economic forum) which doesn't include the trillions the fed is printing and the .gov is spending in stimulus, and comes out to two million a life saved, but those lives only hada limited time left til the inevitable happened any way. Say we saved a million lives and each of those lives had two years left? It cost us about $240.00 an hour to keep those million folks alive an extra 2 years.
Sounds like a bargain!

Mother nature works in mysterious ways but sometimes things are for the best, even if hard to deal with.

Yep Jack she makes the rules... like it or not

I've met very few people I'd be willing to
Pay 2 million bucks to keep them alive 2 years. I'm not arrogant enough to think my life is worth a million a year either. Life's about choices. I choose to live in an area of low population density and keep food and other necessities stored for mid term survival. If you don't? Sorry?

2 months and the entire US economy will be fractured and the reality of a long term downturn will set in.
My area, they're predicting 35-40% of small retail and restaurants are shuttered permanently.

You really think there will be jobs to go back too after a year?!! Jesus fuggin Christ! Shaking my fuggin head......

The reality right or wrong is everyone has a value... some people more than others..... math don't lie

I like the way you think, pretty logical and to the point.

Nobody doesn't know about this now, three weeks into the information curve going up, the case and death curve will start to go down, the peak is this week.

Anybody that was saved has been saved and should be able to figure out how to stay saved. Those that died would have and those that continue to get the virus and die didn't learn the lesson and would have also.

After this week it's time to continue life with the known precautions.

Kent

Thank you Ken for an adult analysis...

The part where you said "critical defense & transportation"..... so you don't deal in government contracts?

As far as who is suffering, every non essential small business and the employee's of said business, you really don't get that?

Small business account for 44% of the US economy, now they are an endangered species thanks to the experts "models" junk science, and those of you in the scientific community better start policing your own. If you don't , you lose credibility along with the junk peddlers.[/quote]

No, I don't deal in government contracts. I have a "hall pass" letter from DHS that identifies my employer as a part of Critical Defense and Transportation Industry. I live in one state and work in another. Supposedly if roads and borders are closed, I can still get to work.
This however cuts no cheese with the county health authority, now that my wife has a pending covid19 test.

But every business I pass on my 63 mile drive is open. Most have limited hours, and restaurants/bars are carry out only. Everyone I know is doing normal business albeit with some limitations. There are some lay-offs in local industries,but some of them were coming due to changing Ag conditions, and downstream supply issues anyway. And their employees on layoff, with Pelosi's Supplement, are making more than I am on limited (36) hours.

Life is more normal than not, from what I see.

Are you cut off from your source of income? Are any close to you?

I shouldn't bother to bring this up, and I realize that many of you understand these things, but here goes:

Isolation/shelter in place doesn't make the virus go away. It will still be "out there" when people leave home a month from now. People will still get the virus and become ill until a majority of the population develops antibodies either through exposure and recovery or a vaccine. Staying at home is not a permanent solution. It is a delaying tactic. It is designed to keep everybody from "getting it at the same time" and overwhelming the healthcare system. I remind you of this so you don't think by staying at home for 2-3 months the virus just up and disappears. (Unless it is unusually labile to warm weather). We can't make it go away by hiding indefinitely in our homes. It will be there when we come out.

The absurd death projections were based on worse case scenarios whereby the virus was maximally contagious, and the healthcare system completely failed. that wasn't realistic, and now they are backing off those projections. Andrew Cuomo is not going to need 40,000 respirators.

Let me add that this virus is very contagious, and is very serious. You don't want it! Especially if you are elderly, have diabetes, or are obese.

We will not know and understand the REAL numbers on this for perhaps a year or two AFTER this passes, and all the data comes in. Every number you hear forecasted now is conjecture.

We have evidence that every pneumonia death right now is counted as as COVID 19 victim even if it was never confirmed they had COVID 19. If that is so, our counts are not accurate and the data is skewed and will lead to other erroneous projections AND likely decisions made on faulty data.

In ten days, we will all have a better idea about who is right and who is wrong. To meet some of these projections, 45,000 people will die before April 20 in the US. There are about 400,000 case reported in the US (CDC numbers). That includes those who contracted the virus and recovered. We've been sheltered in place and or largely shut down for 2+ weeks to slow the transmission. To have 45,000 die in the next ten days out of less than 400,000 known cases is nonsense.

This website predicts the peak in deaths to come in 4 days (April 12) and top out at about 2,200 and decrease quickly from there. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

So I'm telling you shelter in place works to break up the transmission, but please know the virus won't be "gone" when you emerge from your cave. It will still be there. Just like the measles aren't "gone". A vaccine has made us safer, but the measles virus is still out there. We will have to deal with this new virus and it will run through us.

Post Script- I for one will be very interested in the information that comes out 1-2 years down the road about the true origin of this pathogen. Did it just jump suddenly from an animal to humans and take off like a rocket? Why have Chinese nationals been caught smuggling live viruses around the world?

https://news.yahoo.com/suspected-sa...s-chinas-biosecurity-risk-144526820.html

https://videos.whatfinger.com/2020/...pting-to-smuggle-virus-samples-into-u-s/

Yes, I will be very interested in finding out more.

No, I don't deal in government contracts. I have a "hall pass" letter from DHS that identifies my employer as a part of Critical Defense and Transportation Industry. I live in one state and work in another. Supposedly if roads and borders are closed, I can still get to work.
This however cuts no cheese with the county health authority, now that my wife has a pending covid19 test.

But every business I pass on my 63 mile drive is open. Most have limited hours, and restaurants/bars are carry out only. Everyone I know is doing normal business albeit with some limitations. There are some lay-offs in local industries,but some of them were coming due to changing Ag conditions, and downstream supply issues anyway. And their employees on layoff, with Pelosi's Supplement, are making more than I am on limited (36) hours.

Life is more normal than not, from what I see.

Are you cut off from your source of income? Are any close to you?
[/quote]

John, I think you messed up on the quote function.... what are you asking me?

Dang it went haywire on me aslo....


so......
John, I think you messed up on the quote function.... what are you asking me?

When this is over, I truly hope Trump isolates the Chinese back into the dark ages. If the common Chinaman wants to dine on raw bat and boiled dog, have at it, but don't think you'll engage in commerce with the developed world while it's happening.

Hatari, as usual you are correct on all counts..... I am in the herd immunity camp with sensible precautions for the vulnerable

Who is hurting from present economic circumstance? You?
i don't see any large numbers of jobless, or businesses with closed doors.

I myself am under lawful quarantine by county authorities until my wife's test results return.
My employer is paying all in similar circumstance as "paid leave of absence".
I'll actually make a bit more not working, than if working the reduced hours we are limited to.

Ok gotcha, that was your original point. I must admit this stupedefies me.... small business owners are getting slaughtered.

My small business is fine... so far, thanks to me being very conservative and being prepared, If this thing goes on to long we will all be toast, our life's work and savings gone.

I personally will forego a paycheck and pay my employees and stock pile what cash I can for the upcoming uncertainty.

Again small business have to provide our own safety net and we have no representation in Washington. We are always first to go under the bus.

If these bureaucrats destroy us on the phony models they have used America will cease to be .

Must admit I am astounded I have to spell this out

FYI, you come across a an out of touch elitist with this remark..... makes me angry frankly

As am I but we have a whole bunch of Democratic Governors operating a different playbook. Get the vulnerable off the streets and keep them as safe as possible and the rest of get back to work. Without the economy humming we run the risk of financial ruin, civil unrest, etc. It’s not that hard.

So...

Your business is OK.
The small business folk I know are OK

Who is hurt?

Which part is elitist?
The fact that I am am lawfully quarantined, or the fact that my employer is taking care of me?

You are so out of touch I don't know where to start? millions are out of work....
Your employer is taking care of you... well I am the employer and I am taking care of my employees, at my own expense.
You are damn lucky your employer has government contracts or you could be in the unemployment line.
How about the debt future generations will be saddled with so your boomer ass can work through really hard times , hard times caused by the representatives you have voted into office.
Fug me

Just which government contracts would those be? I doubt that the government directly buys even the first pound of our product. You seem to be very confused.

Over 6 million people filed unemployment claim last week... that's the ones that could get through.

Kent

You stated you work on defense and transportation contracts....... since you are playing coy you have left me no choice but read between the lines....


So tell me do private entities have defense contracts? if so who and what? do private army's order guns? missiles? wtf

Maybe you are just another blow hard phony... that's a thing these days......

Hey Johnw , do you know Kenneth from Wisconsin? he is a plumber

I stated absolutely no such thing. I explained clearly that my employer is considered by DHS to be integral to the defense and transportation industries of the U.S., and that I had a letter amounting to a "hall pass" in case travel and state borders are closed.

I am among hundreds in my area who have been received such a letter and been instructed to carry it. Steel mill employees, automotive suppliers, and etc. have all received some form of the same.
I'd bet that half the working campfire has one.

Don't be clueless and confused...

I know Jeff from Illinois who is a plumber? Best buddy since 1967...

He's open for business, and completing 2 new construction projects. The on-call end of his business is slow, as they are only taking emergency calls.

Those were the lucky ones. My wife and I are in week 4 of layoff and have not been able to get through yet. We have nothing coming in.

Hey Blackheart maybe you should talk to johnw..... he can't understand who is hurting..... seriously

Much goes over your head..... hahahahahahhaa

Construction hasn't slowed here, I've had 1 day off the last 3 weeks, 2 sundays ago.

In home service though has slowed to a crawl, people are putting off small issues until this blows over.

Construction will only stay strong while home prices are strong and housing supply is short. Around here the housing supply for median homes is about 6 weeks. If the economy tanks the housing supply will increase with foreclosures and values will plummet.

Life is math and is easily ciphered.

Kent

I wish the best for you and your family, lived through that chit for a couple years starting 2008.

kent

Thank you sir. I think we will be OK. Went through worse than this in '06 when our home was destroyed by flood and we're still here.

I am fortunate in that my employer is not as hard hit as many. I work in the Quad Cities, comprised of Rock Island,and Moline, Illinois and Davenport and Bettendorf, Iowa, and their surrounding areas. One of John Deere's plants is shut down completely. Several smaller industries are hard hit. I only know a couple of guys who are laid off, but they are drawing unemployment without any delays, last I heard.

I see one guy from Deere frequently. I'll ask him how it's going. Most of these guys stay on top of unemployment as seasonal layoffs are common.

Blackheart,

Good luck to you and all who share your circumstance. A sudden and unexpected lay-off can be difficult and unsettling.

And which geniuses might those be? Oh, you’ve used up your limit on gateway pundit cites for the day, so don’t bother using them.