Now that the latest "rimfire ammo shortage is well behind us I still have this lingering question... WHY?
That question was brought to mind again today when I visited my local hardware store. I was perusing the ammunition aisle and was impressed with the amount and variety of rimfire ammunition they had on their shelves.
In fact I counted the various offerings and it came to 64 (sixty four) different offerings of rimfire ammunition in various cartridges by 12 (twelve) different companies!
Just a while back NOTHING was available - I must ask, WHAT has changed to NOW be able to have so much ammo available? I will add that the ammo on the shelves now is MORE expensive than before the last rimfire ammo shortage.
But what on earth caused that last "shortage"? And, why now, is so much rimfire ammo available?
I am leaning toward believing what several of my shooting friends espouse, that the last rimfire shortage was a manufactured shortage BY the ammunition manufacturers to create an artificial demand and to run up prices.
I haven't got to that belief fully, as yet, but I see no other explanation.
What do you all think?
Hold into the wind
VarmintGuy

The existence or lack of panic....

The ammo manufacturers could not to keep up with demand for the big sellers , and increased military and IRS needs. The Rimfire ammo orders were put on the back burner. Catch -up time now.
My understanding of the ammo industry.

Cisco that explanation makes the most sense…

but weren’t we told by insiders that the manufacturers were producing rimfire ammo in record numbers and it was simply increased demand?

The last “shortage” was caused by fear and hoarding…
I’m down to a little over 1k rounds and am gonna start replenishing my supply.

It is sort of like a cat house in a sea port. The cat house is only going to keep enough girls on hand to take care of normal business. When the Navy comes to town, demand quickly outstrips supply. Wait in line or do without.

The ammo companies are not able to meet surge demands because they have their manufacturing facilities sized to meet normal demand. If normal is 3 shifts 5 1/2 or 6 days a week, going to 7 days a week is just a drop in the bucket compared to recent demands. They can crank up the speed of the machines a bit, at the cost of quality. The only other thing they can do is import. Federal has imported a lot of Israeli ammo through the years. Winchester has imported shot shells in recent years. The absolute finest Winchester .223 Rem ammo I ever shot, was 62 grain HP loads which said in the fine print "made in Finland".

Panic is a self fulfilling prophecy. Get a couple of guys talking about Armageddon and all the sudden, groupthink and stampede mentality take over.

In reality, no one was about to take our guns away from us and there was no reason for the run on ammo. But I feel confident that the ammo and gun manufacturers were very happy with the results. Hell, they were probably the ones' who started the rumor.

Well said.

I think the reason for previous shortages is best described as “all of the above”: panic buying, hoarding, and mass purchases by speculators (including at least some retailers) all played a role IMO.

Regardless of the causes, the way to keep from being affected by a shortage is to acquire a sufficient amount to see one through the market blips, and maintaining that level. Done methodically and sensibly, that won’t break the budget, or contribute to the problem. It also permits the purchase of preferred product so you don’t have to settle for whatever you can scrounge up, at inflated prices to boot. I see lots of good deals in my internet travels of late, and have picked up a few, especially ones that include free shipping. Not just RF either, 9mm, .223, and shotshells are all in good supply now. Have no idea what’s on store shelves since I rarely go to Walmart or the big outdoor stores.

Sorry about the shortage guys. I went on a binge and burned up billions of rounds. When I stopped supplies began to fill the shelves again. Won't do it again, I promise.

Oh c’mon, you know you will…….

I would think that the shortages were intentional and used to keep us focused on the alleged cause. Control is always done thru fear and trauma.
Very much like the fear of they are coming for your guns (or ammo) but they never do. The thought in its self creates the fear and gains them the control of our minds. A psyops if you will, but the very definition of Armageddon, (the war for your mind).

Good morning Cert.

I think the demand was always there. However, I know some of the ammo manufacturers have been at near capacity in production.

I also know the Campfire guys suck up a lot of ammo................

If the numbers are accurate, 106 million Americans own at least one gun. Some of us are overachievers. Some of us have more than one bullet for our firearms.

Do the math, so let's say on average those 106 millions Americans have 100 rounds each, that's 10.6 billion rounds. You could probably triple to quadruple that amount if you take into account the total number of firearms in ownership and those of us who have more than 100 rounds.

It doesn't take much to cause a shortage.

I dont know about the K. Alot of states have done pretty well at banning certain guns, magazines ect. The gov does want us disarmed and I have ZERO trust for any of those fuggers

They never come for our guns…come again??

Out here they come for them every day in every way

K22: I am leaning towards "intentional" myself (for the rimfire shortage) - but having lived the first 49 years of my life in taxington I have to disagree with your contention about "them NEVER coming for our guns"!
The horrors my friends, Hunting partners and relatives are still going through trying to enjoy their Second Amendment Rights out there in taxington is profound and diabolical.
Traveled to a gunshop in the next county over this morning and their supplies of rimfire ammunitions was also very impressive (they had lots of choices in every rimfire round except 17 WSM) - and it was stunningly expensive on top of that. I was after some rimfire grooved receiver rings so did not need any rimfire ammo at all - have a lifetime supply in my gun vault room (and have had so for many years now).
But still the reason for the last "intentional" (artificial) rimfire ammunition shortage puzzles me.
Hold into the wind
VarmintGuy

Varmint Guy,

Why do you think " intentional" is the reason? You may be right , however, I think competition would be a factor. Do you surmise there is collusion, ( Price fixing) amongst manufacturers? What about supply & demand?

Best,

Chuck

You know they will use a few token arrests just to keep us ducking, but over all, no grand band and confiscation. With most living in fear of them doing it, they don't have to worry about any armed rebellion. History of this country has proven that. We have to much fear of rebelling.

Grilled Cheese.

At the start of the plandemic, I had maybe a few hundred rounds of 22lr, 9mm and 223. I was not prepared for a shortage. I was one who did everything I could to buy, buy and BUY whatever I could from the beginning of the covid fiasco. I know i probably overpaid for some of it, but I got what I wanted and most of my buying was done before prices got really stupid. I shoot mostly 22lr, so I obtained ALOT more of that while also building a healthy stash of 9mm and 223. Now I'm getting in to stockpiling more "better" 22lr ammo. Anyhow, I now have enough of my major calibers to ride out a few years of shortages without having to change my shooting habits much and will not have to pay crazy prices again. I may have to shoot CCI SV or mini mags if the good stuff (SK, Lapua, RWS) runs out, but at least I'll have something to fling downrange or use for hunting, survival, etc, if needed.

No one ever listens to what I say as to part of the reason for the last ammo and gun shortage.

It was mainly fed by all of the free Covid $ everyone was getting. You get $700 a week free tax free $ when you were taking home $200 a week before that after taxes you will have tons of $ to just blow.

The 4th of July here was Absolutely CRAZY. The people living in the HUD housing down the road had better fireworks for a week straight than our city had for the actual 4th fireworks display.

Everyone I knew were ordering cases and cases of primers and ammo. And buying all kinds of guns. I bought lots of this stuff very CHEAP after the $ ended and they had to go back to work.

Good sales at Natchez right now, and I picked up the cheapest .22 Mag I’ve seen at SG, $.23 a pop for Federal 50gr in the bottles. That shoots very well in my current rifle.

Pappy348: I am going to look that Federal ammunition up at Natchez. That is a good deal - at $11.50 a box of 50.
I use a LOT of Federal 22 L.R. ammo but haven't used much of the 22 Magnum ammo.
Wait, now I am confused, upon re-reading your post - is the Federal 22 Magnum ammo at "Natchez" or at "SG" (whatever/wherever that is)?
Thanks for the tip - I'll finger it out.
Hold into the wind
VarmintGuy

Sportsman's Guide. That price is for members of their Buyers Club, which gets you free shipping at the $50 level as opposed to $100, and a 5% discount on ammo and guns, 10% on other stuff. Natchez had some LR bargains, $.05 a pop for Aguila.

My Bear Creek upper puts several .22 mag loads (so far) to the same POI at 50 yards, a very convenient attribute. The 50gr at moderate speed seems like a good small game load, and the Hornady 30gr at 2200 a good one for stuff I ain’t gonna eat. Have enough of both now. Hope to get out soon and put them to the test. We’ve had back-to-back snow storms here.

Varmint Guy,

Do you have a reason or evidence to support your " intentional " reason for ammo prices ?

Yes. However, I think panic buying and hoarding .. plus some purchase with intent to sell at scalping prices .. drove much of that increase in demand. Now that those things are (temporarily?) behind us, supply has slowly caught up.

That said, I still don't see anywhere near the variety of .22 ammo I used to see. Volume is acceptable, but choices seem limited.

Was in Coastal the other day, and pretty surprised at how much ammo they had on the shelf. Even saw primers

cisco1: No evidence here - I don't need or want any.
The prices have gone up noticeably and I do NOT believe there was any rational or physical reason for the last "shortage" - let me repeat, I think the most logical reason for that shortage was "intentional" by the ammo manufacturers to have an excuse to raise prices.
Do YOU have a "reason, or evidence" that is NOT the case?
I know a "distributor" who has been in the business decades and he relayed to me that HIS business was just NOT getting anywhere near the normal shipments of rimfire ammunition, during that last "shortage". I'll ask him what he thinks caused that. I do know now the ammo is actually piling up (except for the 17 WSM!) on the sport shops and gunshops I frequent.
I simply no longer trust the ammunition manufacturers - all of a sudden there is ammo (both rimfire and centerfire!) piling up on store shelves, at the much increased prices, I might add.
Hold into the wind
VarmintGuy

stock pile guys its going to happen again ! you have been warned !

K22- how heavy is the rock?

Maybe, maybe not. “I won’t get fooled again*”, whatever happens, whatever the cause…..


*1971 The Who

Fear can result in panic buying, and depletion of pipeline capacity. No manufacturer knows the future, ergo, best to continue at current production till/unless clear permanent demand has increased. That's how supply and demand works.

Other factors, already cited, such as raw material source depletion and need to direct capacity to some other products can easily complicate the situation.

Supply normally increases as a result of sustained increase in demand. What exactly should I do? Stop buying case lots during good times? I'm in the high 5 figures in .22rf inventory, but I shoot alot. In fact, 99% of purchased has been acquired during times like...well...right now. Partly b/c I hate paying scalper prices. Partly b/c I can afford to ride shortages out precisely b/c of a large inventory.

How is it better for those who are perpetually one brick away from begging if people like moi are added to the list of shortage-buyers?

Good Morning Varmint Guy,

I know a couple of distributors also. They can't shed any light on the ammo . The distributors can't really shed any light on much. Years ago I found a new Anschutz in the pipeline, I spoke to 5-6 distributors about getting it to a dealer. Not much luck as they did not know a frizzing' thing. Finally after much effort I had it delivered to a dealer about an hour and a half away. So my experience with distributors is pretty poor.

As far as manufacturers shorting ammo on purpose ....I suppose there is some of that.

I do know a lot of manufacturers have been operating at or near capacity. I also know the manufacturers
sell the most profitable ammo possible. We see what has been on sale lately.

I buy ammo on sale when I find it. I have enough for quite a while. I don't buy any ammo out of need for shooting today.

However, I still cannot find any .218 Bee, .25/20, .30/40 Krag, I did find some .22 RemJet Privi Partizan, and others.

Have good day Varmint Guy,

Best, Chuck

2 contrary corollaries:

People like Mule Deer in the industry have said the ammunition manufacturers were producing ammunition at a steady pace.

It doesn’t make sense that any industry would unilaterally create such a shortage to increase sales when sales exceeded their ability to produce.

A little more on ammo shortages. There was a powder / and primer shortage , component shortage.
Biden banned importing powder a while ago. He futzed around with LC , which affected the .223 /5.56
Market.
Some other factors also.

Cisco1: Like you I bought a lot of rimfire ammunition two "shortages" back.
I probably have a lifetime supply for my many rimfire Rifles/pistols (assuming I live 10 - 12 more years).
And I do still stay on the lookout for sales on plinking ammo for the VarmintKids and VarmintGrandKids.
Our local Murdochs, for instance, has Winchester 36 grain hollowpoints on sale for $19.99 (no sales tax in Montana) for 333 rounds - or about $3.07 per 50 rounds.
All the other rimfire offerings were VERY high, price wise.
I appreciate all opinions and insights on the rimfire availability/price situation whether they concur with my CONJECTURE or not.
Long live rimfire ammunition/guns.
Hold into the wind
VarmintGuy

Good Evening Varmint Guy,

I am not disagreeing with your CONJECTURE ............just wondering' if you have anything besides your feelers.

Best ,

Chuck

Vista outdoors owns most of the top brands.

CCI, Federal, Remington… hummmm?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vista_Outdoor

What caused the last rimfire shortage is irrelevant, what is more relevant is that there will surely be another shortage in the future.
Instead of talking about what may or may not have caused the last shortage your time would be better spent by laying in more now while there are great selections and prices are down.
My local farm stores and sporting good stores have cases of gopher/plinking grade 22 LR ammo at 6 cents or less per round. They had a Armscor on sale a month or so ago at $1.27 per box of 50 - it isn't the greatest ammo around but it beats the heck out of none and I shot a lot of it during the last shortage because it was available. What I am driving at is that there is no reason to not have a good supply of rimfire ammo laid in for the next shortage.

drover

drover: Well then... I would like to know just WHAT causes/would cause "the next shortage in the future"!
I had one off-line response that blamed the ammo shortages (not just rimfire!) on the fact that all the "lead mines" in the United States of America had recently been closed? Lead shortage - I have NOT heard of that affecting "things".
Again, I don't know, but I have my suspicions, and my suspicions (for what they are worth!) are the shortages were artificially initiated by the rimfire ammo making companies to "stimulate" prices and or demand.
It is commendable (in my opinion) for you to look for cheap and on sale ammunitions. Sadly, in my experience, those cheap and on sale munitions are hard to find nowadays - even though supply is VERY abundant.
Again, abundant, except for, the 17 WSM rimfire ammo - I am curious about this shortage which has befallen most every one of my rimfire Varmint Hunting friends.
I keep looking for a "humanely" priced Ruger 77/17 WSM Varminter.
Maybe I will suspend my now several year long search for one of those until that ammo is "re-supplied"? My friends with these Rifles relay to me the difficulty they have in finding any of this ammo (17 WSM) and when it is found it is prohibitively expensive.
Long live rimfire ammunition.
Hold into the wind
VarmintGuy

Good Evening Varmint Guy,

Several years ago I started buying .17 WSM ammo ....several years before I had a rifle.

If it was at certain price I would buy it, because I knew I would have a rifle. Bought several thousand rounds.

Finally found a Ruger rifle. Don't know what that ammo sells for now.

Have a good day VG.

Sounds like you had a plan. Sure beats buying a rifle then scrounging ammo.

As to the why the shortage occurred it really doesn't matter except to serve as a warning that it will certainly occur again.

All you need to do is stop in a Mudochs and they often have rimfire ammo on sale - all you have to do is get your a$$ away from the computer and go buy some.
If you travel as much as you say that you do looking for ammo you could stay at home order ammo at full retail, pay shipping and still be money ahead.

here is an example from your local Murdochs
https://www.murdochs.com/products/s...uper-extra-hollow-point-ammo-250-rounds/

from my local one -
https://www.murdochs.com/products/s...-mag-22-wmr-40-grain-tmj-ammo-50-rounds/

https://www.murdochs.com/products/s...-mag-22-wmr-40-grain-tmj-ammo-50-rounds/

https://www.murdochs.com/products/s...game-17-hmr-20-grain-fmj-ammo-50-rounds/

As far as the 17 WSM it was born dying - hardly anyone made or makes firearms for it, it is overpriced and from reports I have read accuracy is lacking and it doesn't do much more than the 17 HMR but it cost significantly more if it can even be found. I do not know anyone who has one and never seen a rifle chambered in it so that says a lot right there. Why would anyone stock ammo for a slow money and not very popular chambering when they can stock more popular items.

drover

I have been reading about world wide gunpowder shortage.

Ammo prices to rise. Vista and other manufacturers say so.

This does not address the subject of the last "shortages" but it will have an effect on the next one.


Hey folks-
Have you got enough ammo for the coming year, even mundane rimfire stuff like this CCI Standard Velocity 22lr or this CCI Mini-Mag 36gr Cu- HP? Did I tell you that the Hunting Shack (HSM) operations manager told me last week that Hodgdon raised their bulk powder prices by 30% in mid-Jan?

Here's what Sam Galbert (owner of SGAmmo.com) put out in his marketing email today:

"News from Shotshow 2024: I just got home from 4 days in Las Vegas at the shotshow, where I met with the people from the factories we work with, factory sales people, factory directors and owners, importers, etc. The big point of discussion seemed to be shortness in supply for nitrocellulose, which is the raw material used to make gunpowder and other propellants and explosives. Based on these conversations, the issue seems to be based on 2 factors, decreased availability in the supply chain and increased demand for the manufacturing of military ordnance. Getting into the details and a little more, a huge percentage of the nitrocellulose used to make gunpowder historically came from China and Russia, however according to my conversations with industry partners, the Chinese manufacturers who historically were the biggest suppliers at over 30% of the market share are no longer willing to ship raw nitrocellulose to the USA or NATO member countries in attempt to reduce the USA & NATO's ability to supply Ukrainian forces with artillery shells, and of course Russia who historically was the 2nd biggest supplier is out of the supply chain as well. This decrease in supply in raw material has gunpowder manufacturers in the USA raising prices dramatically and cutting off many of the smaller ammo manufacturers. The 2nd part of this issue is the demand for military ordnance, like 155mm artillery shells that use huge quantities gunpowder propellants, and the gunpowder manufacturers switching production to this type of gunpowder with what supply of nitrocellulose they do get. The first reason is that they always put the US government's needs before those of the commercial market, and the second reason is that it is simply much more profitable to manufacturer military ordnance than it is small caliber ammunition, so they get a much more profitable price manufacturing powder for artillery shells. In conclusion, while most of the factories seem to have gunpowder stockpiled today, this issue is expected to catch up to them no later than the summer of 2024 and possibly within a few months, and when it does it will mean the factories will be capable of producing much less small caliber ammunition to sell to the US commercial market. If demand for ammo is low to moderate, you may not see a big change, but if demand were to go way up as it does periodically, the factories will not be able to ramp up capacity to fill that demand. In my opinion, a lot could go wrong in the commercial ammo supply chain in 2024 and it would be wise to stock up sooner than later as 2024 price increases have just started to set in on just a handful of select items so far, and availability is still good which has held prices down temporarily".

Keep yer powder safe and dry!

drover - Thanks for passing on that msg from SGAmmo. I stocked up on Black Friday ammo, ca $1.5K, got just under 20K rounds. Prob good for 'lifetime supply' since I'm 74. :rolleyes: At least I quit smoking 14 years ago, so I can afford the ammo . . . and walk to the target stands.

Drover: Thanks for that insight.
Maybe its not a lead shortage but a "nitro-cellulose" shortage?

Fasteddie01: I am sure happy you are perking up.
And indeed every time I go to my local gas station to pay for gas I am stunned at the advertised "sale prices" for a single pack of cigarettes!
Having been born of and raised by a pair of smoking parents I witnessed first hand their life's impressive improvements, later on, when they both quit smoking.
Proud of you - keep up the good work and stay strong.

Hold into the wind
VarmintGuy

I see a fair amount of ammo about, but very little carrying name recognition.

Now that Californians can buy ammo, the manufacturers are shipping to CA like crazy. They will sell as much as possible before law is changed again.

Guys like Cert and others will have good selection, but shortages will be created for every one else. So say the ammo companies , which are working at capacity.

Cisco..I have long been happy to be part of the problem and not the solution in regards to ammo supply:)

If you decide to rid yourself of any more of that 22 auto holler at me!

Right on , Cert.

Best,
Chuck

Agreed 👍🏻

Assrags may find out there's a shortage of buyers this time.

When CCI Mini-Mags got back on the shelf locally, they were 9.99 per 100, but prices kept going up. They had "sales for 11.99".
Now they are 14.99. Shelves still full. I have plenty, choke on them.

Remington going under certainly fueled it. All that Remington ammo all of the sudden ceasing to be produced

They’ve been back in the game for some time now, at the same facility and same people for the most part. IIRC I read that they never really stopped production, but were very limited because of supply issues. As to rimfire, it’s been years, maybe decades, since I bought any of theirs as other brands were simply better for me. I do shoot their shotshells and find the 12ga Gun Club loads work pretty well and are often the cheapest available for about $9 a box online.