It simply comes down to who gets out the vote in Iowa. Traditionally, those Iowan voters who would typically vote for Cruz are notoriously faithful caucus participants.
The broad and diverse demographics of the Trump voter are such that a substantial turn out is a daunting task and isn't always a given.
If Trump can't encourage and instill the motivation necessary to get out his vote, Cruz will likely have the edge. If Trump gets his peeps out of the warmth of their homes, it could make for an interesting evening.
With Cruz clearly needing an Iowa win to salvage his campaign, coupled with the notoriously faithful who vote for the likes of Santorum, Huckabee and Cruz, unless Trump can somehow get out his vote, similar in fashion to how the dems did so for Obama vs. Clinton,I'd have to give the slight advantage to Cruz.
If somehow the exit polls manifest Trump bettered Cruz as to the Evangelical vote,and Trump pulls it off,then credit would need to be given to Branstad, Palin and Trump's team's ability to manage up enough of a ground game to beat the odds at the 11th hour.
Regardless of the result in Iowa, NH is going to make Iowa's caucus appear like a vote for a 6th grade homeroom class president in comparison.
IMO, if Trump pulls off Iowa,then NH and SC, game's over before Super Tuesday. If Cruz wins Iowa but not NH and SC,game's still on for Super Tuesday but only if a handful of candidates drop out of the race. For those that may drop out, their endorsements may impact upon the Super Tuesday dynamic.
All in all, this has been, without question, the most surreal but exciting primary campaign I've witnessed my entire paying attention to politics life.
