Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Private gun sales as an economic indicator?

I've always thought private gun sales were an accurate (if imprecise) barometer of the economy. Very little buying and selling from where I stand which leads me to think people expect an economic downturn and are hoarding cash. Gunbroker looks dead (as an example). Thoughts?

Hard to find a Fieldcraft anywhere. $4k isn’t even bringing them out of the safe.

Times are either good, or your barometer is whack.

🦫

I feel if people were really scared they would be dumping liquid assets and turning them into cash. I haven't seen that around here. Things here are typical of right after hunting season, the holiday money crunch and thinking about ice fishing.

I was in a LGS last Friday in Davenport, Iowa. The guy said that everyone is trying to sell but no buyers so the shops there have stopped buying outright. He said it was because Illinois has changed their laws so people were dumping guns.

I've avoided selling a few extra guns or ammo through 2 or 3 very lucrative markets. Even my wife said that if they're willing to pay that much, maybe you should keep it.

All indicators it "could" get ramped up.

I REALLY should be downsizing yet I just keep buying more. The bills are paid and they make me happy. Guns are like land, you never hear people say "Geez, I wish I had a lot LESS."

I'm done buying guns for the year.

Probably stock up a little more on 6.5 Creedmoor ammo but that's about it for gun related stuff.

I've noticed that too since last summer, a cool down from 2022 while 2020 and 2021 were the best ever 12 million new gun owners. I've seen many collectable pistols, rifles and shotguns come out of closets the last year never seen in prior years, just too many pick from. The high end collectable market was the first glue gun market slowing when deep pocket buyers were not bidding on American doubles, per-64 Winchesters and Colts. The hottest market has been M1 Garands, Carbines and WW1 & WWII 1911's that starting to down shift its demand.

Jeezus, "I'm done buying guns for the year" 30 odd days left. Hell I gone that long without drinking.

Next challenge?

I am noticing that some of us old collectors are all starting to thin the herd at the same time, and the younger generation doesn’t seem to be interested in What we have to sell, like sporterized Mausers…

Gunshop in Idaho Falls clearenced out all their chrisensen rifles at 50% off about a month ago. Mesas were $600 and Ridgelines were $900. They didn't even get them all sold. On Saturday they had a bunch of stuff 50% including a bunch of Hornady bullets and lapua scenars.

The place was packed but not too many people were buying the half price bullets. Me and one other guy took a lot of them but I was surprised they didn't all sell on Friday. They also had 8 pound cans of H1000 for $340. I got 2 of them and should have probably bought another. I was amazed to see it just sitting there. I was down to my last 8 pounder and I use h1000 in 243, 6.5 prc, 280ai, 7 wsm, and 7 prcand 300 win.

I couldn't believe the number of people who looked over the half price bullets and didn't buy a box. For example the 139g scenario were $24 and the 136g scenar L's were $26. The 200g 44 cal xtps were $15/1000 and 500rd boxes of 77g matchkings were like $85.

A few clowns couldn't resist making comments like are you going to buy it all but they bought nothing. I'm wishing I'd have bought more. I left a bunch of 208g and 195g eldms but took the 225s. Wish I would have bought more but I made the mistake of going to the coin shop first and loaded up on mercury dimes.

Not looking good on the economy when that many people pass up half price bullets and h1000.

Bb

Curious what shop this was in. I’m about 15 min north of Davenport and have been seeing similar things. Lots of shops even stopped taking trade in. No difference to me, but I hear a lot of guys on the Illinois side of river worried about the new laws they are enacting.

lol

Thoughts?

You are a broke dick cocksùcking Biden supporter.

Pawn shop/LGS says pawns are booming sales are declining. There’s your indicator.

People are selling everything including the kitchen sink CHEAP on facebook marketplace and craigslist around here. ATV's, snowmobiles, lawn tractors, trailers etc etc etc.. My brother has bought three good lawn tractors and a utility trailer off marketplace in the past two weeks because they were dirt cheap. He says he thinks people are just out of money, have maxed out their credit cards and are desperate for Christmas money.

Prices are sliding on rifles and revolvers. I am really seeing a decline on values for rifles valued over $1,000. Especially custom builds.

Not to disagree with you, but not everyone reloads. If they do, they may not need the match grade bullets or 8 pounds of H-1000, even at 50% off. I know the bullets would set on my shelf as I have no use for them. Powder, yes I could use it. As to the rifles. I'm not a fan of Christensen rifles so passing them up would be normal for me. The couple of stores I frequent seem to be busy most of the time. Seems they always sell firearms regardless.

B and B in Bett.

Just bought a Wilson Combat rear sight for my new Python. Hadn't even planned to do that, but they were 30% off for Black Friday sale.

I'm pretty much stocked on everything. Don't really see myself buying much at all in the future. Maybe a couple dollars here and there to upgrade and make better what I already have.

How do really fell?

FIFTY+/- people have asked me to show basic gun chit in the past 6 months...

THAT is your GD barometer of an economic downturn.

Y'all?

[bleep]! I paid WC full price less than a month ago.

I walk through the LGS near me at least weekly. The traffic in there I’d say is less than half of what it used to be. And the traffic is not buying. The LGS owner says it’s terrible.
In my opinion, it’s the economy. Most people dont have any discretionary money.

They are proud of them.

Couldn't paint a more opposite picture. Shelves empty, prices are record high. 200% of presale estimate at an auction is common place.

what good is a mauser, sportorized or not, against the modern field of precision bolt actions and semi-autos?

$39 mauser's in High School are bringing $500 plus; that's pretty good!

Sporters are tools, Custom's are labors of love. But if you can't appreciate a Mauser, there is something dead inside you.

Seeing the same thing here, every time I walk in someone has soft cases of guns on the counter selling to the shop. I've sold a few myself. Musical instruments too, my lgs/pawn shop usually only has a maybe half a dozen guitars and maybe half a dozen amps for sell. They have a wall full and floor full now. Seeing a lot of nice watches also in their cases.

Notice the announcement "POLICE!" That's become standard for armed home invasion robbery. They want you to put your gun away while they break the door down.

Tag

Hank

I don't know but it seems like we hear this every year for quite a few
Kind of like EVERY home game U Of M has record attendance

Hank

No free money now sales are down but seem ammo bringing a good price. Took in 20 guns to auction house seems they are getting good prices still. January 1st. sell. Alot of M1, 30 carbines, WW2 bring backs. Most of mine are Marlins.

Interesting. Are these fifty people all people you know; or are they just showing up out of the blue? How many people typically contact you in a 6 month period to have you show them basic gun stuff?

One of the local pawn shop owners told me that they have more sellers than buyers coming in and have had to discount some guns just to move them. I got a good deal on a Winchester 100 carbine in 243 a couple of weeks ago from a small LGS, marked down from $600 to $400. Cabela's is still buying, but they don't pay very well.

Little different here in Florida. Local shop is selling CCI SV for $20/box of 100.

Just saw on the news where credit card defaults are up 15% from last year. Analyst said we are headed for a 'cliff' early next year. Basically what I thought would happen last year but never really materialized. I consider it a good time to visit the pawn shops.

Bring some of your modern stuff over here to the bench and we can probably answer your question.

I'm not surprised that the CC defaults are that high. The interest rates that are tied to the prime rate are in the 20%+ range and a lot of people just can't keep up with the high cost of fuel and food.

In June I got a 0% interest for 21 months VISA from Wells Fargo that I will be able to pay in full before the interest rate goes up. I have used it to buy some stuff that I normally wouldn't have, but 0% interest money is hard not to use. I'm sure that WF is hoping that a large percentage of the people who received this offer won't be able to pay it off in full before the interest rate goes up. They didn't make this offer out of the goodness of their corporate heart.

I'm waiting for someone with a nice Fulton Armory .30 Carbine and 1000 rounds of ammo to fall on hard times.

I'll be happy to help them out if the price is right.

Auto loan defaults are at a 29 yr high.

Personal CC debt has passed 1 Trillion several months back, and the average interest rate on those CC's is the highest it's been since they started keeping data on it.

Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out things are not good in the big picture and I have been seeing things sitting at shops.

There's always been good deals here off of tables at flea markets or from private, but that said, local auctions where it is an advertised gun auction, are still HIGH. Always been that way around here for some reason. I almost never go because I can't buy anything but went to 1 a few weeks back because there were a lot of good guns there and figured maybe I could come away with something. Not even close. Most went for several 100 more than my stupid might pay it just because I want it price. I never even got to bid on a single rifle.

Stupid high, even guns that were run of the mill average. A tootsie roll 760 in 30-06 with the stock cut off and a recoil pad added, brought $925.

Dang! I've got 11 760s and 7600s that I have no use for; 243x2, 257, 270x2, 30-06x6. 9 are excellent, 1 is excellent, but it has had a recoil pad installed, and 1 has been hunted hard and shows it.

You'd make a killing around here at auction. Don't know what it is.........I quit going way back in the Obama yrs. Just ridiculous prices at auctions. I've gotten some really good deals on some darn good rifles laying on tables at local flea markets and from private around here. Even a few at small LGS. But auctions? Nope. A lot of good guns there, $1500 was probably the low end that most of them brought.

M70 458 Win Mag, $3600. Two 7600 7mm-08's, $1800 each. A bunch of M88's. 358 Win $4200, 284 $3000, 243 $2000. On and on.

No one likes 760's and that is why they never get used.

Yes you are correct
I end up buying lots of guns in these times
I notice my ebay sales are slow also

My 760A in 257 is #2411xx, assembled in 06/54. Not NIB, but at least 95%, it didn't get used much at all over the past 69+ years. There is almost zero demand for pump action rifles here.

People are routing extra income to household expenses. Need food and fuel to make a living. No room in the "what's leftover" side of the balance sheet for much else.

When things get worse next year and I start snapping up items people sell to make ends meet, do I feel guilty or no? How guilty?

LOL

Been seeing a lot of repo trucks lately

A lot of people made a lot of down payments with Covid money. Now, they can not make the monthly.

A lot of people ran up a lot of credit cards during Covid. I would be betting the rash of bankruptcies is just beginning.

Who, with two cents worth of brains pawns a firearm?????????

I knew a guy who, for a couple years, took a Parker-Hale 270 w/ 4-12 Banner, and a 5 inch Witness in 38 super to the pawn shop on the 15'th of each month. They handed hime $200.

When the 1'st came around, he handed the pawn shop $250 and took his guns home. Every friggen month!!!!!!!! What an idiot!

Nobody really knows much about private gun sales without some kind of reporting, which is something I will fight to my last breath. Otherwise, I am seeing mixed signs. 9mm ammo seems to be "normalizing" after the shortage, as it's available in all the usual stores, and commonly at $12 to $15 for 50 rds. of ball ammo. Centerfire rifle ammo shelves are full and prices tend to be MSRP in the stores such as BassPro, Academy. Pawn shops continue to steal guns at 25-30 cents on the dollar and I am seeing lots of guns in the pawnshops. Yet they still want full retail (compared with online asking prices, not actual transaction prices) and I am not seeing too many "deals" to be had. They say their prices are just a starting place and ask me to make an offer. With ONE notable exception I found a few months ago in Houston, they will offer to absorb the sales tax ($900 plus tax becomes $900 out the door) but won't go any lower.

Recent examples are a nice Model 94 Winchester pawned for $200 and forfeited 90 days later. The shop booked it into inventory at the $200 plus $120 accrued interest from the loan and tags it at $1200, but they'll take $1000 out-the-door if you buy it today. I went back the next week and it's sold. A guy walked in with a nice-looking Marlin 336. The shop bought it for $350 and it was on the rack next week for $995.

I have been seeing those guns at North Texas gun shows for about $1200 apiece, and am seeing the same guns show after show. And ammo is all over the place...at one table they want $32 a box for Hornady Pro Hunter or Outfitter 7mm-08 and three other tables want $40-45 per box for the same ammo in the same room. I think I saw it at Academy for $39.95.