Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Greece to Default ??

It is looking more and more like it to me, possibly sooner rather than later.

www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financi...-plans-for-Greece-to-leave-the-euro.html


The German finance ministry is actively pushing for Greece to declare itself bankrupt and to agree a "haircut" on the bulk of its debts held by banks, a move that would be classed as a default by financial markets. Eurozone finance ministers meet on Monday to approve the next tranche of loans from the EU and the International Monetary Fund, designed to stave off national bankruptcy while the new Greek government puts the country's finances in order. But the severe austerity measures being demanded have caused such fury in Greece, and the cuts required are so deep, that Wolfgang Sch�uble, the German finance minister, does not believe that any government would be able to implement them.

His pessimism has been tipped into despair with a secret European Commission, Central and IMF report that even if Greece made good on its promises, it would not be enough to reach the target of bringing total debt to 120 per cent of GDP by 2020.

"He just thinks the Greeks cannot do what needs to be done. And even if by some miracle they did what has been promised, he - and a growing group - are convinced it will not pull Greece out the hole," said a eurozone official.

It was never a matter of "if", but "when" and "how".

Coming soon to a theater near you....

The 'shock' felt 'round the world.

Yes it is.

God I hope they let it fail!

If Greece does a 'disorganized' bankruptcy it's going to guarantee several banks, mostly in France and Germany, to be insolvent due to the reduction of reserves. Watch for new bailouts in Europe and/or capital markets to freeze worldwide.

Ok, got a question for your financiers...

If/When Greece folds, will gold prices go up or down?

Both.

I think you're right.

Not that I know anything, but I sure seems to me that if banks have to leverage and raise cash, that's going to put incredible short term pressure on gold. Probably a flight to Treasuries is going to occur too. Short gold and long Treasuries?

It will fall dramatically. Then rise precipitously. The level off for an extended period of time.....







........, but not necessarily in that order.

Be careful what you wish for, as four of our largest banks hold multi trillions worth of CDS contracts. If they-Greece-does default, and I mean a formal hard default, then there's no way that the ISDA can rule that a default didn't happen. If that's the case you have a reprise of AIG, only on a much grander scale.

As to it's effect on gold, the question you have to ask is what is your counterparty risk? If the ISDA rules that Greece's default isn't really a default, or that some of the bonds issued under English Law have seniority over those issued under Greek Law, then you have a defacto abrogation of bond holder's rights, and ALL paper is questionable, no matter the issuer-including US Treasury paper.

Gold has no counterparty-IF you hold physical in possession.

There is nothing safer or better for preserving wealth, especially in these times of moving definitions and thievery being done under the auspices of sovereign central banks and their commercial offspring.

If I was Greek I think I'd start looking for oil. Quickly

+ 1

Up, in the long run. Monetary insecurity always does. At first, however, it might actually decline a bit as priced in dollars, due to people seeking to get into US dollars for relative safety, but the dollar (Really, the US Government) is a bubble that's about to burst.

Good luck with that. They have to be able to pay for it, and if they default, no one will sell any to them except for hard assets. Olive oil will only buy so much-although they could probably run their diesels on it if it wasn't too cold.

Socialists from around the world will continue to prop Greece up with their workers money they have working for them. You to will be propping them up if you are supporting the marxists. Do you honestly believe that Obama's Handlers will allow Greece to fail? Not as long as they have you guys on a string too.

Socialism is the perfect system, social justice for all, the realization of Heaven on earth, oh, then you run out of other peoples money and it all goes to sh*t.

People are lazy and stupid and like to delude themselves that there is actually "something for nothing" and they "deserve" a piece of the pie, even if they didn't bake it, build the oven, grow the wheat or berries.

It's not going to be the 99% against the 1%, it's the the 49% who work and have some semblance of morality vs. the scum-sucking 51% and the parisites that placate them in government.

Can you put out a Greece fire with liquidity? Doesn't matter what happens on Monday as it's a forgone conclusion that Greece will default. Just a matter of time. After the last round of A** hattery by the Greeks to the Finance ministers last week refusing to accept their terms and garantee austerity after the next election the finance ministers are in a tough spot. Nothing Greece can do at this point can get them to under the 120% debt required by the EU. If the finance ministers rubber stamp the deal tomorrow they loose all credibility. If they don't Greece goes down in flames.
Either way Germany still has to vote on it next week....Rotsa ruck with that.
I wonder where all the naysayers about holding physical Gold here on the fire disappeared to when we were talking about that 7 years ago when Gold was a whopping $400 an ounce....LOL

Dave