Wow, gold is now down to $1,276. Your analysis is as good as anyone else's that I've seen...
Yeah when it comes to explaining what has already happened in the market it seems like all of us can come up with something. Ask us to predict next week and we all suck equally.
Gold had its run. I think it will have another one though it may be a while coming. But it is so responsive to politics and the central bank that predicting how it will move long term means predicting how the political system and the Federal Reserve are going to behave long term... not easy to do!
One thing I believe would be good for all of us who are investing for retirement/future is to take this as a great opportunity to examine who we listen to and what their track record is. There are a TON of people who bought into the gold rally late and/or also completely missed the rally in the stock market. And there are a ton more who are sitting around waiting for a hyperinflationary event that just ain't in the cards (I'm looking at you Peter Schiff!).
After a while being early is just plain being wrong. There need to be consequences for those who misguide you just like there are consequences to your portfolio for listening to them. Just a thought.