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http://www.atf.gov/files/statistics...firearms-manufacturing-export-report.pdf

Kimber has manufactured 743134 1911 pistols from 1998-2011 according to the ATF.

So what does 125 failures in a sample of 284 forum respondents mean in the grand scheme of the cosmos? Right - nothing.

But if you back up one level on the link I provided you'll get all the years and all the manufacturers. Sort of interesting.

Last edited by dla; 05/14/13.
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Are you being serious or sarcastic?

How many they've produced means nothing to me if 125 out of a random 284 have "failed". That's a 44% failure rate.


Originally Posted by SBTCO
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While they've built a lot of pistols and 284 units out of 750k isn't alot - consider that those 284 units are spread across the country here and about 50% of them had a failure.

It don't give the warm fuzzies and that's from a guy who bought 2 of them in 1998/9 and had zero issues.

Fact is, today, Kimber isn't the only place to get a 1911 with semi-custom touches at a good price with good results. In 1998 they kind of were the only ones and that's why people flocked to them.

I'd take a NM serialized Springer or Ruger anyday and not feel bad that it's "not a kimber" - actually, rather than drop the money on a Kimber - I'd save a bit and get a Les Baer.

1900 or so gets you a new Les and I can't say that I know of anyone who'd claim that Kimber does the 1911 better than he does. Wicked accurate pistols from the results I've seen.


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I went back and read the other thread to figure out what you were talking about.

You're big issue seems to be the limited information available in the poll. Which is a valid issue and worth noting.

But the limited information in the poll or the unscientific way it was gathered doesn't negate the fact that 44% of folks here who responded about Kimbers had "failures".


Originally Posted by SBTCO
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In one factory I worked in about 2 years ago, they were implementing statistical process control. One job went to QC, and because the customer was expecting statistical proof of process capability, QA took samples of the lot. No parts actually were found out of spec, but predicting the lot's variation - easy to do if you have real skills, like math - suggested there were a fair number of bad parts in the lot. QA rejected it.

The plant supervisor was furious, called the inspection BS, and said he'd check all the parts himself, to prove they were all good. He spent three days doing it, and wound up finding slightly more bad parts than the statistics predicted. He admitted defeat.

If I was trying to claim that a slight difference in failure percentages was a big deal, after checking 50, 100, or even 500 guns, I'd being trying to read too much info into the data. But when a couple hundred people report on a product, and almost half have complaints, that's not "meaningless".

Last edited by tex_n_cal; 05/14/13. Reason: clarify

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Originally Posted by tex_n_cal
In one factory I worked in about 2 years ago, they were implementing statistical process control. One job went to QC, and because the customer was expecting statistical proof of process capability, QA took samples of the lot. No parts actually were found out of spec, but predicting the lot's variation - easy to do if you have real skills, like math - suggested there were a fair number of bad parts in the lot. QA rejected it.

The plant supervisor was furious, called the inspection BS, and said he'd check all the parts himself, to prove they were all good. He spent three days doing it, and wound up finding slightly more bad parts than the statistics predicted. He admitted defeat.

If I was trying to claim that a slight difference in failure percentages was a big deal, after checking 50, 100, or even 500 guns, I'd being trying to read too much info into the data. But when a couple hundred people report on a product, and almost half have complaints, that's not "meaningless".


So is a sample size of 284 valid for 743000 units?

Did you use the link I provided to find out the production of the other 1911 manufacturers?

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Originally Posted by Bluedreaux
Are you being serious or sarcastic?

How many they've produced means nothing to me if 125 out of a random 284 have "failed". That's a 44% failure rate.


Yes, but what does it mean?

And that is the problem with the "poll" - it is totally meaningless.

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Originally Posted by dla


And that is the problem with the "poll" - it is totally meaningless.


If I was thinking of buying a new truck and asked 284 friends how they liked their Fords, and received 125 negative responses about Fords, I'd hesitate to buy a Ford truck. Regardless of how many they produce every year.

And you would too.


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Originally Posted by Bluedreaux
Originally Posted by dla


And that is the problem with the "poll" - it is totally meaningless.


If I was thinking of buying a new truck and asked 284 friends how they liked their Fords, and received 125 negative responses about Fords, I'd hesitate to buy a Ford truck. Regardless of how many they produce every year.

And you would too.


Well think about what you said for a moment: Do you know of any truck that gets perfect scores from it's owners? Of course there are products that are pure doo-doo, and reviews help you avoid them. But this poll isn't a collection of reviews.

The poll in question asked about malfunctions. It didn't ask if the owners sold the pistol and bad-mouthed it on forums. Once again, the meaningless nature of the poll is revealed.

The poll is fundamentally flawed. You can't determine anything from it.

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Originally Posted by teal
While they've built a lot of pistols and 284 units out of 750k isn't alot - consider that those 284 units are spread across the country here and about 50% of them had a failure.

It don't give the warm fuzzies and that's from a guy who bought 2 of them in 1998/9 and had zero issues.

Fact is, today, Kimber isn't the only place to get a 1911 with semi-custom touches at a good price with good results. In 1998 they kind of were the only ones and that's why people flocked to them.

I'd take a NM serialized Springer or Ruger anyday and not feel bad that it's "not a kimber" - actually, rather than drop the money on a Kimber - I'd save a bit and get a Les Baer.

1900 or so gets you a new Les and I can't say that I know of anyone who'd claim that Kimber does the 1911 better than he does. Wicked accurate pistols from the results I've seen.


Actually, 125 malfunctions is so in the noise as to be laughable.

You bring up a good point though about "high-end" 1911's. Because of the shortcomings of the 1911 design, and the ignorance of the noobs that buy these things, a hand-fitted 1911 would be a much better purchase. There's just no way that Kimber can guarantee complete customer happiness. Kimber easily ships 10x as many pistols as Wilson a year.

Kimber made a name for themselves by producing a darn good 1911 at a competitive price. They are not in the same league as the LB's & Wilsons.

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Originally Posted by dla


So is a sample size of 284 valid for 743000 units?




A sample size of 30 pieces would be a normal sample size for any size population & is statistically valid for calculation of standard deviation & other lot properties.

What may be less accurate than desired in the poll is what constitutes a "malfunction"............but no matter how you cut it 44% of the sample of 284 had at least one "malfunction" & for any poll or sample lot, that ain't good news.

This kind of "defect" or reject rate would put virtually any business out of business.........but I do think there's more here than meets the eye & it's likely in the definition of the defect.............although that definition is/was used for all the guns reported on.

For one thing, Kimber magazines are pure schitt & I throw all of them I come into contact with into the trash & magazines are likely the #1 cause of 1911 function issues.

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Originally Posted by MontanaMan
Originally Posted by dla


So is a sample size of 284 valid for 743000 units?





For one thing, Kimber magazines are pure schitt & I throw all of them I come into contact with into the trash & magazines are likely the #1 cause of 1911 function issues.

MM


I agree and honestly all my 1911's get Wilson mags. However for the price wouldn't you agree that it should come with at least two serviceable magazines?


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Originally Posted by MontanaCreekHunter
wouldn't you agree that it should come with at least two serviceable magazines?


Absolutely...........

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Originally Posted by MontanaMan
but I do think there's more here than meets the eye & it's likely in the definition of the defect


Doesn't your sample size require a frequency to be valid? You have a sample of 284/743134 produced over a 13 year period. Worse, you have no standard definition of what constitutes a "failure" (you basically have 284 untrained inspectors giving their opinion).

Yep, I agree with your point about defect definition. The 1911 is a mediocre design and "malfunctions" have more to do with break-in, or lack of lube, or magazines - none of which is really the pistol. But the user only knows that he has trouble.


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Originally Posted by dla

Doesn't your sample size require a frequency to be valid?


No, you do not have a or sample size of 743,134; you only have a sample lot of 284 of which 44% have been reported as bad from a total production run of 734K.


Originally Posted by dla

You have a sample of 284/743134 produced over a 13 year period.


Statistically, it doesn't matter how many were produced; you only have a sample of 284 & the data contained in that sample.

The only way the data would not be valid is if it was all from a period of, say 2005-2012 & you were able to get another sample from, say 1999-2004 & that data (rejects) was substantially different.

So if there was a circumstance as above, the number of defects might be substantially different, but assuming the original 284 defects were taken from production over most of the total timeframe in question then the total produced is not really relative.

Originally Posted by dla

Worse, you have no standard definition of what constitutes a "failure" (you basically have 284 untrained inspectors giving their opinion).


But you have to accept that, within reason, the same standard for a malfunction is more or less consistent across all manufacturers listed in the poll; in other words, the Kimber reporters were no more or less critical or -ill-informed than those reporting on other brands.

And no, I don't agree that the 1911 is an "inferior" design; your opinion or view doesn't make it so.

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Originally Posted by MontanaMan
Originally Posted by dla

Doesn't your sample size require a frequency to be valid?


No, you do not have a or sample size of 743,134; you only have a sample lot of 284 of which 44% have been reported as bad from a total production run of 734K.


Originally Posted by dla

You have a sample of 284/743134 produced over a 13 year period.


Statistically, it doesn't matter how many were produced; you only have a sample of 284 & the data contained in that sample.

The only way the data would not be valid is if it was all from a period of, say 2005-2012 & you were able to get another sample from, say 1999-2004 & that data (rejects) was substantially different.

So if there was a circumstance as above, the number of defects might be substantially different, but assuming the original 284 defects were taken from production over most of the total timeframe in question then the total produced is not really relative.

Originally Posted by dla

Worse, you have no standard definition of what constitutes a "failure" (you basically have 284 untrained inspectors giving their opinion).


But you have to accept that, within reason, the same standard for a malfunction is more or less consistent across all manufacturers listed in the poll; in other words, the Kimber reporters were no more or less critical or -ill-informed than those reporting on other brands.

And no, I don't agree that the 1911 is an "inferior" design; your opinion or view doesn't make it so.

MM






Did the poll include the date of manufacture? If not, then you again have a totally meaningless sample. Why? Because you are not accounting for model type, or manufacturing runs. Kimber didn't build a single run of 743134 Kimber Classics ya know.

So your sample of 284 could all be from one problematic model produced in a couple of months of high workforce turnover. You just don't know. Meaningless.

Also, it is totally false to assume that 284 individuals are using the same definition of "failure". Some noob gets FTFs because he ran a tight pistol dry - he thinks the pistol malfunctioned whereas an experienced 1911 pistolero recognizes operator error.

If the 1911 were the epitome of pistol design there wouldn't be so many other designs. Like I said earlier, the 1911 was a seminal design and lots of others designers have improved upon it.


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You make a valid point about users, but obviously you do not have the faintest understanding of statistics.

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Or common sense.


Originally Posted by SBTCO
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Originally Posted by dla




[/quote


Did the poll include the date of manufacture? If not, then you again have a totally meaningless sample. Why? Because you are not accounting for model type, or manufacturing runs. Kimber didn't build a single run of 743134 Kimber Classics ya know.

So your sample of 284 could all be from one problematic model produced in a couple of months of high workforce turnover. You just don't know. Meaningless.





So you think the 284 where all from the same run in the same short period of time in production of a single run? You shot yourself in the foot this time no pun intended.


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Originally Posted by dla

...and "malfunctions" have more to do with break-in, or lack of lube, or magazines - none of which is really the pistol.



My Kimber alloy frame cracked after about 8500 rounds. Kimber is telling me that it isn't their fault and to be prepared to spend $500+ on a new frame. So, that should be fun...


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