Anyone want to take a stab?

80% he will go by-by...........

Idiots abound, therefore I'm not sure until after the election. There are no certainties in life and with politics that holds true.

50/50

Incumbent Presidents don't lose very often, at least in modern history.

Harry Reid won last time, and that was supposed to be a landslide loss. So...pretty sure Obummer is back for 4 more.

60/40 he'll be re-elected.

Steve.

very true. it will likely require an extraordinary effort to dislodge the incumbent.

but, look at Pres. Johnson and Pres. Carter. it has happened before, more or less.

50/50

It will tell us a lot about the country

I think he is done. Trick now is to wrap up the Senate.

It ALL depends on what happens with the economy in the next 9 months.

I'm sure govt. agencies and the media will be slinging numbers helpful to Barry - (ir)regardless of fact.

We all know he should be done. The problem is anytime I'm on a website (other than gun related) that allows reader comments after an article, my faith in the American public drops like a rock.

They walk among us and they vote.

Obama will fare as well as carter did.

Reagan promised a strong military

Promised a balanced budget (Newt delivered the only balanced budget in 54 years)

Cut taxes

It was a landslide.

What with alla the false eco indicators fixing to spring up who can know?

You have to hand it to the Democrats. They don't let facts get in the way of their rhetoric.



SUPPORT OUR RIGHT TO KEEP AND BEAR ARMS

not to overload the thread, but so long as the unemployment rate clicks downward, interest rates remain low, and the DJ continues to rise, all of that trend points to a benefit for the incumbent.

it takss away from contenders who focus on the economics, and adds to the advantage of the Statesmen, if any, who might reside with us.

if the economy falters, Katy Bar the door.

pls remember, most of us just want a job, to feed our families and pay our fair share of taxes. nothing more.

Depends entirely on who is running against him. I don't believe for a minute Romney can beat Obama. I can't stand Newt but if he is the R. candidate I think it's 50/50.

No standing President has ever been re-elect with an unemployment rate over about 7.1 % I believe it is. But if the people want four more years of this great leadership and economy you get the government you voted for.

50/50

L.W.

Re: unemployment #'s - flawed - skewed as they show how many are ON unemployment, while those whose benefits ran out and are not working, though qualified and trying, fall out.

True Numbers would simply count how many ppl ARE working, subtract from eligible workers.

If the Dow keeps climbing - and it gets BHO re-elected, I guess it's - sell before the dump, during the pump. Hopefully the market is climbing anticipating BHO LEAVING.

I don't think Obama will accept a defeat. We will count the "hanging chads" or whatever they dream up this time until he can show a win (if it takes 2 yrs., so be it). If that don't work, some emergency(think DOJ) will come up and the election will have to be put on hold for awhile.

As to the economy and E_rate at 7%, that could drag along for another 20 or so. Our so called booms over the last 30 were nothing more than manipulation that ain't gonna play anymore.

They keep touting slightly (faint) improvements in the unemployment numbers. I'm wondering if these are the 99week people finally exhausting it all and having to take on entry level jobs. And then the POTUS using that as "things are improving" B.S.


I hate it, but my stomach churns thinking that there are enough sap suckers and air head college kids to tip the election.

I agree.

====================

I think so!

The Electoral College isn't looking very good for Obama,at all.

Obama 65% who ever the GOP chooses35% and RP gets the rest

50/50 sad to say

Based upon the performance of the Republicans, I'd go exactly opposite of what my smokey friend here is saying...

About 75%, leaving 2% for unforeseen anomaly and 23% that Obama's rival commits suicide just before winning the election.

I'll bet Barry is sh;tting blocks thinking about having to debate Newtie!

Either the Republicans will, once more, figure out how to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory or Obama will take out or attempt to take out Iran's nuclear capability sometime between August and September....which will preclude in large measure changing horses in midstream. Is that enough in the way of cliches for you?

ROUNDUP

0%-100% Obama gets re-elected. Republicans have screwed the pooch.

Nope.

There are. People are, by and large, idiots. With each breath I am becoming more and more sure of that.

80% the big O buys his way back into office. COuld be some clinton style dog wagging or not. I wouldnt doubt it.

I think there is little that isnt either caused or manipulated these days.

Never underestimate the ignorance of the American electorate.

I'd say the National Lawn Jockey has at least a 60/40 chance of being reelected.

The key is the independent voters. Obama lost them. Obama will lose the presidency but I'm not going to guess by what percentage.

Read this and decide, he only needs 51% to be reelected.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/gallup-daily-obama-job-approval.aspx

68% 32%

I hope he is gone 100%.

My faith in my fellow Americans to see past the bullchit and remove this Socialist from office. Coupled this with the fact the GOP is once again prancing out a bunch of RINO's. Well, say 25%.

100%

===========================

Some just will never understand.

Here is a related article from your link regarding Presidential approval numbers, the unemployment rate, satisfaction and feelings about the economy compared to past Presidents and whether or not they were re-elected.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/152051/Obama-Faces-Challenging-Election-Climate.aspx

I'm with Esox and the others. This country has a lot of numbskulls too stupid to understand that our government is their fault.
I will do my best to cancel out MY idiot and recruit tasteful people of class to do the same.

I'd guess about 55:45 in the big O's favor, unless a real dark horse Republican shows up.

obummer gets back in or there may not be an election any way. obummer may try the martial law thing.

You don't believe that Bob. That's the difference between you an I.

I won't vote for Romney under any circumstance... and I won't vote for Obama.

The Re-pubican's can't get their chit in a pile and Obama is the only alternative.

I'm going to write-in Ron Paul and let the chips fall where they may... unless Gingrich get's the nomination. And I really don't like Newt, but I'd vote for him.

It's hard to un-seat an incumbent President... but I still think it likely Obama will be out.

I agree, especially when you consider the voting fraud that is going to favor Obama.

Brad has nailed the issue and reflects the views of a lot of conservatives. A Romney nomination means Obama wins.

I am no fan of Barry. But the Reboobican crop of candidates is like watching the 3 Stooges. I fear he will get re-elected. These are strange times. If he adds Hillary to the ticket as VP, he is a shoe-in, and she will be set for 2016-2024... it could be a long season of winter...

Both sides of the isle have done as much as they can to scew the unemplyment number niether side like to see the bad picture it paints. I think a much better measure of what is happening is how many people are on food stamp and how many Mortgages are under water.

For the good of this once great nation, I gotta go 100%.

Gunner

===================

Seems a whole bunch of folks missed the Electoral College 101 class.

No it means a lot of people have to hold their nose and vote for the lesser POS.

isaac,

There is a cascade effect. If Romney is the Repub nominee, the toss-up states go to Obama. Even in states that lean Republican, if Romney is the Repub nominee, states that otherwise wouldn't be in play for the Dems come into play, particularly considering that Dem voter fraud could swing states that are slightly Repub to Obama.

I'm not voting for a leftist regardless of what his party affiliation is, and there are millions of others like me. A Romney nomination guarantees an Obama victory, and the lame stream media knows it. Actually, the lame stream media is in love with liberal Repubs too.

Seriously? Who could beat him then? Do tell.

I think it depends on the state of the economy on election day. If the public perception is things remain bad and continue to get worse, Obama is toast. If the public perception is things are improving at a decent pace, I think Obama is likely to win. In other words, it depends much on what picture of the economy the media paints ... and when.

Funny thing about the media. They're "left", but not even reliably that. If either side has a clear advantage, they'll undermine that side. My perception is they're trying to maintain the image of uncertainty. Why? Maybe it sells commercial slots in their news programs and boosts ratings?

If the economy is in a state such that it gives neither incumbent nor challenger a clear advantage, then I think Obama has some advantage. The republicans are divided and are busy beating the [bleep] out of each other. Unless those wounds heal by election day, still-united democrats will be voting against divided and discouraged republicans and we'll have 4 more years of trouble.

Just a guess, though.

Tom

If Romney is the Repub nominee, the toss-up states go to Obama.
===================

You have zero support for such a comment.

The myth that a "moderate" (read left-wing) Republican is the most electable, a myth perpetrated by the MSM, is based on the flawed premise that the folks in the mushy middle are the only ones who decide elections. That isn't true. To win an election, a candidate's party's base has to turn out in huge numbers. That's how Obama won so big in 2008 - his base was inspired and turned out in huge numbers while McCain's base was very uninspired by a "moderate" candidate who wasn't inspiring. If the weather is inclimate on election day, the effect of the base's inspiration level is magnified considerably.

Romney is McCain, but worse, and even the terrible state of the economy couldn't propel Romney to victory in Novemeber because the true conservatives aren't going to turn out for Romney in the numbers needed for victory.

You can believe what you want, but electoral politics are much more nuanced than the MSM would lead one to believe.

I hope Romney isn't the nominee so I don't have to come back in November and tell you I told you so. Romney isn't going to get the support from the conservative base that is crucial to swinging close elections, like toss-up states are.

Again,you have no support whatsoever for your comments and a even larger misunderstanding of both the swing states and their current polling numbers.

When are you going to tell us who's going to beat Obama?

http://www.nationalpolls.com/south-carolina.html

Gingrich is the front-runner that conservatives could hold their noses and vote for. Gingrich would energize some of the conservative base, perhaps enough to win. I think Santorum would have been able to energize the conservative base, but he has been effectively painted as on the lunatic fringe by the MSM. If Cain or Perry had had their acts together, they could have won like Reagan did in 1980. However, they're both out, and we're left with the dregs.

A couple things about the current polls:
1. As someone posted previous in the thread, January polls are not reliable predictors of presidential elections.
2. Perhaps an even bigger issue is that the polls aren't accounting for Dem voter fraud. Don't forget that nearly every state decides their electoral votes by state-wide popular vote. Thus, high rates of voter fraud in areas that are very blue (e.g., Philadelphia, PA), especially through extra voting, could easily put a toss-up state in Obama's column.

The Republican candidate isn't going to be able to win by getting 50.1% of the legitimate vote in most swing states. In fact, this go-around, I think the Repub candidate would have to get at least a full 51% of the vote to win a swing state, and he might need even more than that. Most swing states have areas where Dems control, and they can get outrageous numbers in those areas. I have no doubt that there will be at least 1% of the vote fraudulently cast in some states.

A candidate that doesn't energize the conservative base (e.g., Romney) isn't going to have the margin needed to overcome the voter fraud.

unfortunately, I am not optimistic he will get tossed from office I am guessing about 60/40 chance. DEAR GOD, PLEASE PROVE ME WRONG!

The Pennsylvania polling data I just looked at had Obama's lead over Romney increasing. That's right, Obama leads Romney by 3 to 5% in an important swing state, and those numbers don't even consider voter fraud.

The latest poll I've seen had Obama leading Romney in South Carolina by 3% (45 to 42%). How long has it been since South Carolina voted for a Dem for president???

Here's a tidbit to ponder and chew on. Obama is leading Romney 45 to 42% in most recent South Carolina poll I'm aware of (12/11/2011 NBC News/Marist).

quote:
-------------------------
South Carolina was one of only six states to vote for Barry Goldwater in 1964 and has voted Republican since, except in 1976 when it voted for fellow southerner Jimmy Carter. In 2008, John McCain defeated Barack Obama 54% to 45%.
-------------------------
South Carolina info

You put a over-abundant emphasis on voter fraud. Romney is thumping Obama in Florida and ahead in Va,Indiana and Ohio. If Obama loses Ohio and Florida,it's over.

I'd love to see this SC poll you speak of. I don't believe any credible poll has such a tally. Plus,it's a entire new ballgame when it's a one and one race. Polling now reflects the multiple candidates and those numbers will change once the GOP candidate is selected while Obama's will remain basically the same.

And I agree with Beck when he stated Romney will kill Obama in the debates. The Georgia fiasco and Obama's failure to disclose any records are going to come back and bite him in the ass,big time.

See my post from 20 seconds before your last post.

Mitts Grand Cayman accounts aren't likely to help him...just sayin'

===============

PPP has Romney beating Obama by 15 points in SC. It's ranged from 6-15 points.

Find another poll that corroborates the one you found then maybe I'll focus a bit more on it.

=============

I truly hope Obama is foolish enough to bring it up.

don't worry I'm not going to edit

If Obama is beating Romney in South Carolina, the voter fraud would just be gravy for Obama.

You can downplay voter fraud, but here's one example for you.
Voter fraud is real and can be significant

quote:-----------------
For instance, after the 1982 gubernatorial elections,
widespread allegations of fraud in
Chicago led to almost sixty convictions and
caused a civil grand jury to conclude that
100,000 illegal ballots had been cast (although
one former state election administrator cautioned
us that the 100,000 figure might have
been overblown for political reasons).32 When
similar allegations surfaced after the 1987
Chicago primary, the then-chairman of the
Chicago Board of Election Commissioners estimated
that between 36,000 and 52,000 votes
had been cast by unregistered voters.33
------------------------------------------

There were between 3.6 and 3.7 million votes cast in the 1982 Illinois gubernatorial election, so 100,000 votes would represent more than 2.5% of the total votes, and if the large majority of those fraudulent votes went for one candidate, the fraudulent votes would represent more than 5% of that candidate's total. That might be an extreme case, but it is not unrealistic to expect that as much as 1% of the votes in some states, particularly in Dem areas of swing states, will be fraudulent votes.

Living in california and seeing what i and others here see every day, my confidence level in the balance of the american people is ZERO

It's 2012 now. Dems have and still are being sent to jail for voter fraud in NY. Indiana is all over safeguards after dem voter fraud in that state. Same with Minnesota. We'll see where the SC ID fight lands and it's impact on the rest of the country.

Voter fraud won't be a significant concern,imo. Plus,as you'll come to see, the GOP win in November will be rather significant. Folks keep forgetting that once we get past our primaries and select a candidate,Obama will be immediately on the defensive. And,once his record is the talk of the day rather than GOP in-house bickering,it will get ugly for him,especially after the SC smacks down his signature Health Bill.

That is a darned good question.

My sense is that many of the people who voted for Obama did it because they had a sense that "they were making history!!!"

And, while in principle, they would gladly do it again...you can only make history being first, once.

The 'miracle' of Obama is that he got Republican turn-out rates from the other end of the bell-shaped curve. That will not happen again.

If I were a Republican strategy wonk, I would strongly agitate the Occupy movement in some of the states that still might entertain the fantasy that the Federal Gov will ride to their rescue...(California, Illinois, Nevada, Florida)...force the issue and make Obama admit that he is not their savior. Hell hath no fury like a 'ho that is scorned. Stated another way, the entitlement crowd goes cannibalistic against those puncture the collective fantasy.

When is the last time the PPP poll you referenced was taken? I don't see any Romney v. Obama in the data currently listed on PPP's website for South Carolina. You care to provide a link?

Thats backwards.
baby bushie screwed the pooch bigtime and turned off middle independant voters that voted in large numbers for the raghead.
Run someone to far to the left or right, loose the middle and loose the election.
Romney and McCain have nothing in commen at all.

dave

You've bought into the MSM's lie.

If Romney is the nominee, Romney and McCain will have one very significant thing in common when election day rolls around - they'll both have been beated by Obama.

===============

I'll try to find it again,RR. IIRC,I believe it was a end of third qtr 2011 poll.

30 % right
30 % left
40 % middle/independant

Thats not a MSLSD lie
thats a fact.
Your backwards and to small minded to see it.
Romney and McCain have nothing in commen at all.

dave

Never figured he would get elected in 2008, so go figure.

I also never thought Bill Clinton would get elected or reelected
He didn't Parrot got him elected.

The only way Obama will get reelected is if Ron Paul runs on a third party ticket.

Look at GB 1, he came out of Desert Storm with one of the highest Presidential ratings ever held as a first term POTUS. A year later he was beaten by an unknown former AR. Gov. strange things do happen in politics.

Yep, that's the simplistic way the MSM wants you to think about elections, and those numbers aren't quite right anyway. Dems have 35-40% in their base, Repubs have 30-35%, and the other 25-35% are the swing votes.

Turnout is more critical than the swing voters. It isn't that swing voters aren't important, because they are, but a candidate isn't going to win without his base having a big turnout. A candidate like Romney can't energize the party's base, and therefore can't win regardless of how he does with swing voters.

Lyndon Johnson only won ONE term/election for President. He did NOT run for a second term!

Well you better start cheering for whoever the GOP puts up then.
The raghead must go.
dave

Isaac, you think Jeb Bush will endorse Romney?

my only concern is if i have enough ammo for when he losses and the brothers start their crap.

Surefire is coming out with hundred round AR mags, could you imagine the weight of that.

Not according to Thomas Sowell:

The smart money inside the Beltway says that the Republicans need to pick a moderate candidate who can appeal to independent voters, not just to the conservative voters who turn out to vote in Republican primaries.
Those who think this way say that you have to "reach out" to Hispanics, the elderly and other constituencies.

What is remarkable is how seldom the smart money folks look at what has actually been happening in presidential elections.

Ronald Reagan won two landslide elections when he ran as Ronald Reagan.

Vice President George H.W. Bush then won when he ran as if he were another Ronald Reagan, with his famous statement, "Read my lips, no new taxes."
But after Bush 41 was elected and turned "kinder and gentler" -- to everyone except the taxpayers -- he lost to an unknown governor from a small state.

Other Republican presidential candidates who went the "moderate" route -- Bob Dole and John McCain -- also came across as neither fish nor fowl, and also went down to defeat.

Now the smart money inside the Beltway is saying that Mitt Romney, who is nothing if not versatile in his positions, is the Republicans' best hope for replacing Obama.

70% chance Obama gets re-elected.

Obama will not be in any debates. Ain't gonna happen.

95% sure that the current occupants get sent packing.

He might do one if chris "I get a tingly feeling up my leg" Matthews moderates it.

It's well known in political circles that Jimmy Carter would have beat Reagon in 1980 if he had refused to debate, and that has not been forgoten by Obama's handlers.

IF the rag head wins, I am investin all of my money in 6" and 8" PVC pipe companies and silica pack companies. Just from what I have seen at work... the guys that will admit they voted spook last time sure are NOT voting spook this time. It is a little late to get into the fight but maybe I should enter the election...........

Yeah.... 80% The Kenyan Mistake gets his second term.

As much as it pains me to say so, I think you are right. A large part of O's voting block does NOT give a rip about unemployment, deficits, transparency, or anything else that actually matters. What they care about are government handouts, advancement of a Socialist/Communist agenda( to attain the social utopia promised by such a system), and re - election of a black President. All the other stuff really just does not matter. Throw in the percentage of people that vote for whomever the TV tells them to, and VIOLA! Re - election! AND, we must not forget that the Republicans cannot seem to win ANYTHING! SHEESH! I hope I'm wrong. I can't see us getting out from under another term. We can barely salvage our country after one term.

70% Obama doesn't get re-elected. Don't you guys listen to Rush.

My concern is voter fraud and the like. That factor is hard to quantify but may be as high as 10% ???? I'd still have to say no way. I'm really surprised others have zero optimism.

I was listening to NPR last night, bastion of liberal thought but mentally entertaining, when I heard this report.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2012...e-secret-document-that-transformed-china

So the most liberal radio station in the Nation reports on the official economic policy of the largest "communist" country in the world; and what is that policy? Capitalism!

Why? Because nothing else works.

The end of the podcast is interesting. The last shreds of old-style communism are actually practiced by party officials who are really nothing more than Mafia Dons. But that is really not news, is it?

==============

We'll have to agree to disagree there,Pat.

Debates will be unescapable this election. Fatal to any candidate who refuses to participate.

I hope you're right.

Confidence?
Slipping all the time

I wis the GOP had a better choice
But our 2 party system will never allow it

I'd afraid they ( the left Dems ) will bus in more Messicans and beat the ghettos and it will be 51-49 for BHO

The hope to beat Barry is to get all the scandals like Solyra ( ?) to the light of day.