I'll believe it when I see it. Meanwhile we're in the "100 degrees and dry forever" forecast doldrums around here.
http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/lo...-lighten-up-by-winter-report-5706003.phpSAN ANTONIO � Three years have passed since Texas endured one of the worst droughts in history. In September and October of 2011, more than 80 percent of the state was in an exceptional drought, the highest category on the U.S. drought monitor scale.
Today, 59 percent of the state is experiencing drought conditions from moderate to exceptional, while 22 percent is experiencing dry conditions and 19 percent is experiencing no drought.
Though, a new report from the Climate Prediction Center states that drought conditions in Texas most likely will improve or end by the end of the year. The only area in Texas that will experience persistent or intensified drought conditions is the southern point of the state.
Victor Murphy, climate services program manager for the National Weather Service, said the drought already has been lifted in some eastern portions of the state, including Houston. But, the land from the Panhandle to Wichita Falls, have remained in an extreme drought, he said.
For Bexar County, Murphy said conditions range from dry to a moderate drought.
"Areas right now that are only in moderate drought should probably improve and get out of drought," he said.
Unfortunately, Murphy said although wet conditions will return, the drought's symptoms may never leave. For example, he said Medina Lake's low capacity may never return to normal, unless there is an "extremely unusual" amount of rainfall.
"I'll be honest, I'm not sure it's ever going get to back to where it was," he said. "It's going to take a protracted period of heavy rain over a long period of time to get Medina Lake back to normal."
Medina Lake, just west of San Antonio, is 4.1 percent full, and has climbed since the record low of 2.7 percent capacity in May, when the lake was 91 feet below normal.
"This drought's been so persistent for so long, that normal rainfall is not good enough," he said.
He also stated that the Edwards Aquifer currently sits at 627.1 feet, the lowest since the drought began in October 2010.
Dry conditions began after tropical storm Hermine hit the southern coast in early September.
"It's almost like some flipped a light switch," Murphy said, referring to the sudden drought, which has been the worst Texas has seen since the 1950s.
The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook report is valid through Nov. 30, and was based on both short and long term conditions, climatology and El Ni�o forecasts.
For the nation, dry conditions are expected to worsen throughout California, Nevada, Oregon and parts of Utah, Idaho and Washington, the report states.
California is facing one of the worst droughts on record, and Gov. Jerry Brown declared a drought State of Emergency in January. Even celebrities, such as Lady Gaga and Conan O'Brien, have urged Californians to conserve water to help to ease drought symptoms.
California's drought has quickly intensified since late 2011, when majority of the state was experiencing do drought, the drought monitor states. Drought conditions climbed slowly on a weekly basis until January. Since January, exceptional drought conditions have increased from nonexistent to the current reading of 58 percent.
I dunno how he figures San Antonio (Bexar County) is only in a "dry to moderate drought" state
But... apparently we ain't been as bad as it got in the 1950's yet, musta been global warming back then no doubt
Birdwatcher
Darn. I wonder now if Buchanan will ever fill in that case? Why would he think we would never again have periods of extreme wet weather?
I've been seeing similar predictions Birdwatcher, lets hope they turn out to be right.
While we are certainly in better shape than we were the last three summers, we still have a looonngg way to go before full recovery.
We've had somewhat decent rains since early May here, but runoff has been minimal.
Unfortunately for many of the lakes it's going to take one of those 12" in a day type rains to have any significant effect on their level. Heck its going to take that just for some of the stock tanks to fill back up!
Bill
It's dry as a popcorn fart here.
Close to 7 inches behind normal for this year, and add that to 12" behind normal last year, and it's serious.
I as well as others believe the Lake Travis of the 60's, 70's, and 80's (barring the drought of '62); is a thing of the past. Yes, it may refill (along with the other highland lakes like Buchanan) but their levels will be short lived, as water demand in the Austin metro and lower Colorado river (agriculture) with be gargantuan.
The best example was the 2005 flood in the highland lake watershed. In less than 4-5 years the lake levels are about where they are now. Dismal.
Darn. I wonder now if Buchanan will ever fill in that case? Why would he think we would never again have periods of extreme wet weather?
Because he is a damn idiot.
Drought is followed by flooding. Thats pretty much the norm. It'll take a big rain event to fill resevoirs. But it'll likely come. Today. Probably not. This year? Who knows. Could be years. But it can take one hurricane, with it stalled as a depression in the right place.
It very well can be the climate changing as its always done, but in 30 years, I think we'll be in another drought... if it follows trends somewhat.
Between now and then, we'll survive too.
Weather forecasts. One of the biggest wastes of time to watch, especially the long range.
We've had 100s for 2 weeks or so, and before that upper 90s. Was almost too hot to burn at fire school end of July, for the health of us mid day in bunker gear.
But our last forecast for 10 days was 100s, ZERO chance of rain in teh forseeable future.... and I used windshield wipers twice Friday coming home from work and then an EMS call.
Granted it wasn't much, some got 3/10. And I saw a rainbow.
But that was a day after our guy said, NO chance of rain or showers or anything for at least 10 days. Lows around 80.
Its a waste, just like watching the news.
The live oaks are shedding leaves here on my place. Other trees have died in the past month.
Hopefully El Nino will pull a rabbit out of a hat...
I was in San Antonio late August 1974. Salado Creek through Ft. Sam Houston flooded the training grounds on Ft. Sam. It seems a hurricane came on shore at Corpus Christi.
I hate to say it but maybe you guys need another hurricane. kwg
We need a tropical storm, maybe. A hurricane does too much damage to be considered more beneficial than destructive.
Regular rain would help as well.
I as well as others believe the Lake Travis of the 60's, 70's, and 80's (barring the drought of '62); is a thing of the past. Yes, it may refill (along with the other highland lakes like Buchanan) but their levels will be short lived, as water demand in the Austin metro and lower Colorado river (agriculture) with be gargantuan.
Yep, same thing down here too with the Edwards Aquifer. Seems like all we grow around here is new housing tracts, and every one of 'em draws from the aquifer.
Birdwatcher
The drought actually started in 2002, right after a classic "Texas Flood", been downhill since.
Gonna take some good wet stuff to fix this. Might be fish in the rivers again after about ten years.
I dunno just how much. I believe LCRA has the figures but the lakes ain't near as deep as they were back during the days of the WPA projects which built them. Silted in! Buchanan gets it the worst.
They ain't just buying it up, its going to be controlled in the name of endangered species too. There is no media coverage to expose these facts.
There's a difference between getting rain and ending drought.
U-Kansas does research by digging trenches in farmers fields and observes how deep the dry layer of soil extends.
In most places it's a over 4 feet at present, indicating a depletion of ground water.
Imagine what that test trench would show out in the panhandle.
Gonna take a lot of rain to make up that dry spell.
Seems like the rest of the country is getting drenched pretty good. California is going into its 4th year of drought conditions. So far the 2014-2015 season which started July 1st, we've gotten 1.68 inches, 0.42 inches in a couple hours Wednesday.
We've been averaging 1/3 less than average for the last 3 seasons, and its starting to take a toll. Nearly all reservoirs are between 30 and 45% of capacity... and finally it looks like a bill will be put in place to start regulating ground water!
Will it get better this year... its looking like any chance of an El Nino is disappearing.
Phil
The southern half of California is a friggin desert so what could be expected??
Kerrville, Hill Country, Texas. Water well guy came out and added another 63 feet of pipe to my dads well, dropping the pump well below the bottom of the casing. Water level has dropped that much and the well was pumping off.
I was at the ranch today and walking through the pasture pounded like I was walking on egg shells. There was no green grass and the brush is dying and drying up.
There's no guajillo or forbs. I don't know what the deer are eating but from the looks of the road they must have thought I left something for them. The road was cut up with tracks. Saw about a thousand rabbits. Gonna be some fat coyotes this year.
Saw the first covey of quail I've seen in several years. Too bad they'll al die from lack of water.
The forecast does give us a 10% chance of rain tomorrow. Forgive me if I don't break out my slicker suit tonight.
Alan
I had not considered the water demands of today.
But I have not seen us look anywhere close to the dust bowl pictures that are around, in the 20s? or 50s? I forget which if not both.
We've been dry. 2011 was a killer. But this year has been liveable by far water wise.
Given that LCRA is stupid enough to cut off rice farmers but sell lake water at a flat 100 something dollars to water green grass in the Austin area, you folks may be right, it may never be the same.
That being said it seems history says it takes an extended drought, to lower lake levels/water tables.
And it takes a stalled storm of some kind one year to fill everything very full if not overflowing.
Generally speaking we'll see one sooner or later. Form of a hurricane or storm or depression. Really doesn't matter. We have to deal with em.
The problem is there aren't any the last years. And if you do get one it has to hit the coast just right, to stall above austin in the right area to get above the lakes and fill and get run off.
Heard a friend say the hill country was a desert.
Since some stupid lawsuits lately, everyone we know in our hunting area is kicked off the land from Feb 1 to Oct 1. I have a big feeder that will feed that long and a big protein feeder, but it damn sure sucks to take my money and not let me manage and help..... [bleep]... but I digress.
It will rain again. Our back 3 plus acre tank overflowed this spring, that hasn't happened since 2010. So there is always hope....
and saw a thunderhead try to develop this evening.
But damn its hot and dry. 90 degrees at almost 9pm... thankfully only going on week 3 of that crap.
My place in Erath Co. is bad. I say this drought started about "93. Some say we had 3-4 good years in there, but I say it's just one long drought.
The last real area wide flood we had was December of 91. We've had floods since then, and most of southern Travis county in the onion creek watershed washed away last spring. But 1991 was the last real area wide El Ni�o inspired incident!
The last real area wide flood we had was December of 91. We've had floods since then, and most of southern Travis county in the onion creek watershed washed away last spring. But 1991 was the last real area wide El Ni�o inspired incident!
So we are due. We hope.
We had a "100 year flood" in 2006, with the Sabine River cresting 28' out of it's banks. Nine counties were declared disaster areas. It didn't help this drought at all. Weve gotten rain the last two years and things are green, but all the ponds are still dry, or low.
The topography of California has raised more than 1/2 inch in past years because of so much groundwater taken out of the ground.
I'd think it would have dropped but the scientist tracking it described like taking a weight off something being held down.
62 trillion gallons of water consumed/lost since the drought conditions began - Enough to cover the western part of the United States in 4 inches of water.
Maybe we can hold the place down by importing more from Mexico. For sure we should fund more welfare payments for more kids.
We had a "100 year flood" in 2006, with the Sabine River cresting 28' out of it's banks. Nine counties were declared disaster areas. It didn't help this drought at all. Weve gotten rain the last two years and things are green, but all the ponds are still dry, or low.
Lt. Pat,
wasn't that 2009? I do know Logansport's sheriff office got flooded and had to shut down for several months, I lost a camper and 4wheeler in that deal. Then we had a 2 year drought.
Doug
Houston and Galveston get a lot of rain
Hope it gets better for you folks
T
We had a "100 year flood" in 2006, with the Sabine River cresting 28' out of it's banks. Nine counties were declared disaster areas. It didn't help this drought at all. Weve gotten rain the last two years and things are green, but all the ponds are still dry, or low.
Lt. Pat,
wasn't that 2009? I do know Logansport's sheriff office got flooded and had to shut down for several months, I lost a camper and 4wheeler in that deal. Then we had a 2 year drought.
Doug
Pretty sure it was the year after Hurricane Rita.
Looked it up, 34.37ft (Logansport) on 10/31/2009
Shoulda known you were right.
Doug
Nope. You're right. The year after Ike, not Rita. I wish we'd get another like that...my duck pond has pine trees 10' tall growing in it.
we've had good rain at the lease and my brothers place this past yr, both are green and have water in the tanks.
That's good to hear Rog. We've had a lot of light rains, so everything is green. We've just don't have any ground water. The lakes and ponds that aren't fed by live water are dry.
We finally filled all the ponds up this year. But they are all down again but only a "normal" down for summer.
It was 2010 the last time the ponds were full...
It was green here, now its corn flakes dry when you walk and brown.
20 acre grass fire that almost caught a number of commercial businesses on fire a week or so ago enacted our burn ban again thankfully.
In this N.Texas area, the drouth started in 2008 and there has not been any runoff water to speak of since 2007. In that respect, this matches the drouth of the 'fifties. Hopefully, this one ends in the 8th year, like that one.
Back then, people didn't use nearly as much water and there weren't nearly as many people, so it's hard to make a valid comparison-- statistics when considering drouths are awfully misleading.
One problem around here is that so many folks buy 10 acre "ranches" and build two stock tanks. It takes about a hard 4 inch rain just to get to the point where the big creeks and rivers get any water.
And 4 inch rains have been damn scarce the last 7 years.