Who wants to guess when it pops and how low it goes?

Kreskin

Lots of bubbles right now. Autos, boats, homes is starting again.. Pretty much anything that could be financed since the last one.

Early 2018....

Commodities are already low.

It was to have happened annually for the past six years from what I gather here.

Obama kept things propped up with devious methods.

Conservatives are much more likely to just let the chips fall where they may.

Yeah, but some folks say we don't have any conservatives in control.

Buyers market....


Spent $30k on cows last week.

If the EPA is hamstrung and deregulation takes place, jobs, sales and the natural order of things will balance out once the cycle feels the surge.

May not be as bad as what they say.

Come to Chinook and buy some calves Friday Sam.

Depends on whether Janet Yellen raises interest rates 3 times this year to destroy Trump and the economy, as she has commented on.

Do what you feel is best.

I stand by my method when it comes to investing.

Buy low, sell high.

Really, the bubbles dont bother me a bit so as long as the aggregate is 5-6 points above the inflation line. If you have time, and a speck of interest to understand the market, you can do well.

Just be a boring, consistent investor in a good fund.

Jim, wish we had the grass to run some yearlings.


Good luck with the sale!

If we went back to the Gold Standard, she could GFH.

That's a lot of hamburgers. You got my vote!!!!!

Thanks! They put a bottom on them, so we did not feel so bad about taking them to the ring.

I assume they will bring exactly the "bottom" they guaranteed, but still beats freight to Billings and the shrink. Or at least it will be a wash.

We would keep them, we have the grass, but we dont have any money so off they go!

Funny... I'm a builder and we're flat phuqkin slammed right now. I mean 2006 slammed. Specs selling off the footers, lots of existing homes selling within 24 hrs at full price offers, lowest inventory in a decade, more buyers than sellers etc.... Every builder I know (including me) is thinking we have 2017 and maybe half of 2018 before it crashes. I'm making hay, paying off the little debt I have and saving everything I can.

Made it through the last one by being debt free and figure I can do it again if I have to. I found alcohol, in moderation, really helped the last time....(grin)

The next recession is always when,not if. Cyclical markets are somewhat predictable, at least in housing, bar an unseen event. The signs are there if you know what to watch for.

I trust you!!

The DOW will hit 30,000 and then there will be a modest pullback to 27,000. Just not sure when it will happen.

That is the nice thing about living up here.

We have to be told when such crashes happen. Never noticed the last one.

Depends on Yellen and that Fed. Oh, as goes Jan so goes the year.

So, on the day Trump was sworn in, I raised my 401k contribution by 3% but I'm invested pretty moderately. Like right in the middle between low risk and high risk and I just let them manage it. The ROI isn't that great.

I've been thinking that I should change that to a little riskier to capitalize on the gains but thought that might be stupid because I would be buying high. (If you can't tell by now, I have no idea what I'm doing when it comes to this stuff)

So, should I wait for it to come down before making a move or do it now and get in on whatever gains are to be made in 2017?

there is a ranch to the north of me, they are on the net. they allow people for a price to pick fruit in season. They also raise contented range grass cows, no additives.
works out to about 8.95 a pound, quarter is about 600 to 800.
is delivered to a central point in phx once a week.
i thinks they gots a good idea.

Try bogleheads.org. You can get a ton of help on there with your asset allocation. They are about long term investments, low cost index funds, staying the course, not trying to market time, and minimizing taxes. You won't get rich quick following their advice but you will beat most financial advisors.

As for the next bubble I don't know. But hopefully soon so I can buy more of the market at low prices.

Regards, Branden

We have 8 good years ahead of us, maybe more.

Risk no more than you can afford to lose..

OK for the market savy to disagree.

g

Trading within one's 401(k) is like a bar of soap . . . the more you handle it the smaller it gets!

There is no way to know if we are near a bubble or not. If Trump gets rid of regulations, we will see stocks continue. Mentally I think we are entering a greedy stage . The fear is way down. When the greed gets high it will correct. Seems lots of people getting into the market out of excitement and this happens all the time. When they are done getting excited and have no more money to put in, there will be the stall, then the fall because of fear. I am letting my mutual funds and ETF's get to be 1 yr old so they go long term capital gains and then I am going into more conservative stocks that are way down on their 52 week low/ high. If it corrects, I believe those stocks that are down will correct less. If the market goes through the roof , I believe those down stocks will outperform. Just make sure they are good companies. And yes OKIE, I have noticed when I trade a stock or fund I am mad at or has not done well, I dell it , and then it goes up more times than not. It is a mystery to me why. My new philosophy is unless there is a very compelling reason to sell one and buy another, leave it sit.

He's amazing!

Slow and steady wins the race it seems.

Exactly. Blue Chips, slow and steady!

Find and read the Wall Street Journal article about the man who manages the Nevada pension fund and do what he does. Namely, put your money in and then resist the temptation to make frequent adjustments. He blows away most of the professional fund managers by not kneejerking to every hitch in the market.

Buy stocks in companies or indexes of companies that actually produce something and generate revenue and margins, and trust that they will rise over the long haul.

The cliche is that bull markets climb a wall of worry and bear markets ski down the slope of hope.

We had a crappy economy and a crappy president the last 8 years and the market has tripled. People either would not buy or went short because of it and were relentlessly squeezed by funds flush with free cash from zirp as well as companies buying back stock with free borrowed money. The wall of worry was built by the crappy economy which caused the central banks to flood the world with money thus providing rocket fuel for the bulls. This market has killed more bears than Davy Crockett and Daniel Boone put together.

What if Trump is actually a great President and his policies succeed? Govts stop printing money and loaning it to companies for free to buy back their stocks because conditions will have improved or maybe they just want to eff Trump. Earnings improve and catch up to what has been priced in. EVERYONE finally gets bullish....but rates rise and other investments offer competition to stocks. The smart money FINALLY gets to sell to mom & pop who have avoided the market the entire up cycle. Bears are extinct. The market tops and goes down. People who have profited from buying the dip do it again but it doesn't work. The market will look "cheap". They say "but great earnings, but Trump" and stay in as the market skis down the slope of hope and history repeats. A few smart bears will make a great amount of money very quickly....probably George Soros if he ain't dead by then.

I figure it will play out something like this but no one really knows exactly how or when until its in the rearview mirror.

[b][/b]

Obama and the Federal Reserve.

According to Yogi Berra "It's hard to predict things, especially when it's about the future".

Good pearls and feedback. No doubt it's anyone's guess and who has a crystal ball? Yet it's been a long run and a lot of financial engineering as many would say. The Fed/Central Bank and Yellen indeed hold many cards, and whoever controls them.

Regardless of the ebb and flow of the markets, I am very confident that the policies of this new administration are going to be very positive for the American economy, which as most here know is not the market, and often disconnected as we have seen over the last 8 years.

Good luck to all.

Market Update February 22, 2017 -

Rida Morwa
Seeking Alpha
Feb. 22, 2017 10:48 AM ET

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Summary

Market Update and S&P 500 index trading range.

Dear HDO Members,

The S&P 500 index had a strong session on Tuesday (up by 0.6%), following a long weekend from the Presidents' Day holiday. The global markets have been rallying strongly, so it makes sense that New York played a little bit of catchup on Tuesday. In fact all of the major indexes have hit new highs as investors continue to commit capital to stocks, despite technical analysis showing overbought conditions with the RSI at 80 or above for all the indices. Of course we all know the market can remain overbought for a long time, due to a very strong price momentum, a lot of optimism, and still a lot of cash on the sidelines. By looking at the VIX volatility index, it has settled down some after showing signs of potentially climbing higher last week.

So what comes next?

I believe that this market will find buyers every time it pulls back, because quite frankly this is one of the strongest markets I have followed. The way it seems to me, if a correction comes, it will be in the form of consolidation rather than a pullback; the market stops going up but it doesn't go down much either. U.S. indices should continue to lead those of the rest of the world.

S&P 500 Trading Range

To the upside: The next target for the S&P 500 is the 2400 level.
To the downside: The 2350 level for the S&P 500 index is a soft support, and I believe that the absolute "floor" for the index is at the 2300 level.

At this point, I believe that being fully invested continues to be the best course of action.

For more info click on the banner below . . .

I don't know but right now my 401K is looking very good.

How do you have it invested? I'm 100% in small/mid cap growth funds.

Been contributing to pre tax IRAs for 20 years. Roth IRAs almost as long. Kept track of every penny in (pre and post tax). Incrementally increased contributions through the years as we got raises, payed off house, property, got kids through school etc..... . When available using Vanguard index funds. Where not we pick similar products, low cost index.

This past Dec 31st I did my usual look see and figuring. We have now more than doubled the amount invested. All invested money has gone in monthly, Work IRAs and Roth. Company matching contributions have also helped I'm sure. These though have significantly decreased through the years.

Now some I hear say have done better actively trading and watching frequently. That's great. I pay little attention, just set it and forget it. Haven't missed a dime of what we put in over the years. It's been no burden. Barring anything truly catastrophic retirement should be quite comfortable.

How much did your portfolio go down back in 2007-2009?

Making a little money now

Just guessing here, but likely no where near how it has risen since. Folks that rode it did very, very well. Some that got out and back in timely even better... Dummies that panicked and sold low, not so much.

Nice one!

Mine went up. I was short.

smart!

For those that were buying in that time frame did really well. Don't believe check out these two that did wonders for me, HIG and C. But there were many others that did as well or better in that time frame. I try to position myself to buy in those depressed times. I hold in markets like we are in now. I don't time the market, but I time my executions. But its not just timing, its picking solid companies that actually have a solid history.

As soon as the FED starts a trend of tightening to make up for all their artificial liquidity stimulus over the last 8 years.

I've been converting mutual funds into cash for when the market drops. No one can predict when it will, but I want to buy Berkshire Hathaway (B shares) when it does. Unfortunately, I've been watching it since it crossed $120 3 years ago. It just seems to keep going up.

I bought 6 shares Berkshire Hathaway in 1966 for $21 a share and sold it 6 months later at $29 - today, these shares (A shares) sell for $250,000/share. If hindsight was easy, I'd be happier!

Indeed. Yes, 254,900 ......like most all equities, when the market makes a big pullback......so too shall BRK.

WB has made many wealthy no doubt.