Because I like to know thine enemy, I've been snooping around on DU lately and I watched MSNBC this morning..

The Dems are Absolutely POSITIVE that Obama is going to win. They were proudly showing the new Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT polls this morning that they believe shows Obama leading in almost every category and in every state by atleast 3%-4%.

Morning Joe and his hacks were basically calling the election this morning for Obama as they're convinced their polling data is the most accurate and all the other polls are as they said, "sniffing glue".

You can tell, they haven't even entertained the idea that Obama might lose, it's nowhere on their radar screen. To them, the idea that Obama has fallen behind the "neocon" (their words, not mine) is something they absolutely cannot fathom, like us giving up guns and hunting. It just isn't part of our conversation or something we'd consider.

If they do lose, I can see why they will be screaming about a stolen election because they've been brainwashed into thinking they've been ahead for the last 4 years.

In contrast, we feel that a majority of the populace has been awakened over the last 4 years and we feel confident Romney is going to win.

We think that Rasmussen is generally the only Pollster who isn't in the tank for the Dems and we believe the data he posts.

Unlike 2008, I haven't given much thought to the Rebub. candidate not winning. I've felt like people were sick of Obama after about 6 months and they've been wanting a change. Like the Dems,..I haven't even considered what it will be like if Romney loses...

Both sides are pretty certain they're going to win, but it definitely looks like one side is going to wake up to the shock of their lives next Wednesday

I hope I get to watch the MSNBC bunch eating a healthy dose of Crow, because I don't care for it much...

I saw it this morning. Kind of sad to watch joe have to play the MsNBC game. Mika runs the show now. I believe joe said " if you don't like quinnipiac then turn the channel because we do". Again, I pray I get to see this network flame out on the 8th!

Have you noticed as the race gets nearer, joe gets less conservative. Almost like someone is saying "if you speak your mind, you break your contract".

MSNBC will be my primary network on election night and the days afterwards. I gotta have a few laughs don't I?

When Obama loses, I bet they will blame it on global warming/Sandy since Obama was out being "presidential" and more worried about the people rather than his campaign. Or some similar horse chit like that.

And chrissy matthews is gonna blow a vein and croak, SWEET.

Gunner

Yeah,..I was surprised at that. Who tells viewers to turn the channel if they don't like it..?

There was a poll "Who is the biggest bish on MSNBC."

Last I saw Matthews was leading Madow and Mika by a wide margin.

There polls are more accurate than you think. They have the actual polls like everyone else,but they also have the numbers of fraudulent votes cast or those going to be cast in each precinct.

LOL, madcow has a bigger sack than that girl chrissy, what a bunch of chum material, all they need is the proper grind.

To bad [bleep] like that actually get to live and have rights.

Gunner

I'm trained to expect and plan for the worst and hope for the best.

What jorge said.

I don't trust polls, despite the good things our resident political sharpies have to say about Rasmussen, etc. Too many variables. ALL the polls missed the boat in the Scott Walker recall vote.

+1, though the polls were fairly accurate in 2008, IIRC.

I wish I had the same warm, fuzzy feelings as some folks do about the outcome of the pending election. I wish I did, but I don't. I remain hopeful, however.

like the walker recall, i think the polls are skewed in favor of obama, and we will be pleasantly surprised at how wrong they were next tues.

And i'm gonna give the men the rest of the week off STX, and go on a three day drunk to celebrate.

Gunner

it would be almost a good enough reason to have a beer after 17 yrs. almost.

I'm not as optimistic as you guys. But I pray that I'm wrong, and am taking Tuesday off so I can vote.

No doubt, slightly less than half the nation is going extremely disappointed on Wednesday.

Lately MSNBC has pulled out all the stops on spreading lies. There used to be some entertainment value in seeing things from a different perspective to know thy enemy but it's so blatantly propagandist ... I can't stomach it.

They won't state the facts regarding polls so that the viewers won't give up hope and not vote. They're doing everything they can to keep the base fired up and at the same time dissuade people from voting for R&R.

Not all of the commentators on MSNBC are moronically stoopid. Some of them have enough intelligence to twist the facts and fabricate lies. That's what they're paid to do.

+1, they are picking and choosing polls that skew towards obama. A CBS Poll here, a NY Times poll here....its so openly blantant its pathetic. I just hope folks are smart enough to see what they are actually doing.

On the bright side, this is what gives me so much optimism. To watch them squirm and wiggle the polls is a sign of just how desperate they are.

They will blame it on RACISM, just like they always do.

If we get out the vote,it's Romney's day.

Will the Big let down cause riots and such ?

Bring it on !

Most on this site are sure Romney is going to win by the same.

I don't see it that way. It's going to be a tight race IMO, and I still get the feeling that O is going to win. He'll make sure of it. He's a horrible president, but a very good politician.

===========

I can see nwa protesting with a sit in at his entitlement check headquarters now.

Depends on which side wins. If they win, I wouldn't expect anything. If we win, I think the Dem radicals will burn stuff in the streets...

Not as long as he keeps getting our redistribution contribution.

This site is by far the most optimistic on a republican win, none of the other outdoor forums im on have the general consensus that this one does, same goes for the car forums im on. Im really not sure whats gonna happen, i dont have that warm fuzzy feeling though.

I just had a thought regarding the question of riots.

Hussein will still be in power until January and more importantly he has the ability to influence his minions. If he loses he'll make a conciliatory speech that will have an impact. Agree or disagree as you see fit but if there is violence I'm sure he would want to stop it. It's not the legacy he would want to leave.

MSLSD can suppress the dem vote all they like.

I'm hopin but not dancin - - - yet.

And just to be prepared,..I signed up with a DU account, since I imagine they'll put the kabash on new members right before the election.

I'm hoping to tell them to "suck it" on Nov. 7th,...see how many posts I can make before I get banned.!

The way Romney's campaigning, he appears certain that Obama's gunna win.

Funny thing is if the communist was doing such a good job why would the race even be close?

Romney can't deliver Michigan, his home state, MA, where is was a liberal leftist governor sans principle, and Ryan can't deliver Wisconsin. And Rombots think he has a prayer of pulling it off?

You Rombots ought to be buying ocean front property in AZ before Steve_Goebbels & PISJR corners the market.

I have never participated in a poll, nor most of my conservative friends. Who answers land lines anyway?
And I have early voted Rep. already, as have many of my friends.

stumpy

Yes. Thought you ran off. Keep posting. 5 more days.

Thanks much,stupid!

Obama is an Obamanation. But that's immaterial. We live in a media-driven era in which perception trumps reality. Tell a big enough lie often enough & the easily duped will believe it. Don't take my work for it. Ask Steve_Goebbels. He's propagandist extraordinaire. And when his lies are exposed, he'll resort to disgusting name calling, right Goebbels? Why don't you call me a homosexual prostitute again? You have enough lemmings here who will follow you off freedom's precipice.

Ravioli is up early today. Is it free cheese day somewhere?

The only benefit of Obama's victory is that it'll take four more years before he pardons Mumia.

Same here, with a little adjustment.

As was said above, prepared for the worst, if hopeful of a great outcome for the US. Hurry up, Tuesday.

I'd love to see a landslide for Romney as some here predict.


and based on his performance in office, it should be a shoo in for such to happen.

but this isn't the same country that elected Reagan. Decades have passed, gov't debt has increased, gov't salaries have gone up, how many Americans on food stamps? who do you suppose they're going to vote for. Plus the MSM wasn't totally in the tank as leftists as they are now.

Our country has shifted, what was once labeled conservative is now labeled as far right, what was once labeled as moderate is now considered conservative and what was once considered socialism/communism is now labeled progressive.


it's why the campfire has the allure for so many of us that it does, it's largely made up of very self sufficient individuals, we enjoy being around our own kind.

The generosity shown here at times is humbling, but the left is pretty successful in painting our type as greedy because we don't enjoy funding gov't waste.


I'm with jorge and others that hold out hope, but am prepared for the worst.

I'm also not going to lose any sleep over it, even though I believe if Obama is re elected its' Act II in the beginning of the end as the US as the world's superpower. And truthfully it may be roughly the same result if Romney is elected. Those politicians have dug us a very deep hole.

but it will be worse if Obama is elected, a few more SC appointees and say goodbye to results like the Heller decision.

Your best contribution yet. Keep up the good work

I was also sure the Obamacare Ind. mandate would be voted down. I'm not counting my chickens yet.

What those dem TV hacks won`t tell us is that, with every poll showing Obama ahead, more demoCRAPS are sampled which exceeds Obama`s lead percentage.

Oct 31, 1980

FLASH!.........Jimmy (the peanut farmer) Carter ahead of Ronald Reagan by 5 points nationwide.

According to what poll? Interesting!

....Do some googlin....

Lubbock Avalanche Journal September 20, 2012

Gallup Poll: Jimmy Carter 47 -- Ronald Reagan 39
Submitted by may on September 20, 2012 - 12:56am

Pollsters and the news media keep trying to dispirit Mitt Romney�s supporters and to show that Barack Obama will be the inevitable victor. Even after the polling has been packed with Democrats, Obama cannot show a convincing lead that would take him to victory.

Past polls have also shown Democrats leading their Republican opponents up to the election. One of the most dramatic was a Gallup Poll result 2 weeks before the 1980 General Election that showed Jimmy Carter to be far ahead of Ronald Reagan. Rush Limbaugh stated,

In a Gallup poll on October 26th in 1980, two weeks before the election, Gallup had it Jimmy Carter 47, Ronald Reagan 39. That election two weeks later ended up in a landslide that was so big that Carter conceded before California closed.

The New York Times verified this poll,

Ronald Reagan, who trailed President Jimmy Carter 47 percent to 39 percent in a survey completed on Oct. 26, 1980.

As did Wikipedia,

Arguably the most important event of the entire 1980 presidential campaign was the second presidential debate, which was held one week to the day before the election (October 28).[24] On October 26, two days prior to the debate, Gallup released a survey that suggested that Carter was leading Reagan by a margin of 47% to 39%.

A Gallup Poll of July 26, 1988, showed Michael S. Dukakis leading George H. W. Bush by 17 points. The New York Times reported,

In the aftermath of the Democratic National Convention, the party's nominee, Michael S. Dukakis, has expanded his lead among registered voters over Vice President Bush, the probable Republican nominee, according to a Gallup Poll.

This was among the findings of a national public opinion poll of 948 registered voters conducted late last week for Newsweek magazine by the Gallup Organization. The telephone interviews took place on July 21, which was the last night of the convention, and on the night after that.

Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Karl Rove stated on Wednesday during a Fox News interview that major polls still showing Obama ahead of Romney have a disproportionate number of Democrats among those polled.

The New York Times/CBS poll has Obama up 3 points over Romney but has 13% more Democrats in the poll than Republicans.

A CNN/ORC poll has Obama up by 6 points but polled 10% more Democrats than Republicans.

A Washington Post/ABC poll has Obama ahead by 1 point but polled 6% more Democrats.

The Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Tracking Poll has the race essentially tied. Likely voters were polled with no excess Democrats added.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 46% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.

When �leaners� are included, the race is tied with both Obama and Romney at 48%. Leaners are those who are initially uncommitted to the two leading candidates but lean towards one of them when asked a follow-up question.

It is important for Republicans to not be discouraged by polls and the news media that is desperately encouraging them to give up and to cede the election to Barack Obama. This is not logical, as the polls are significantly overpredicting Democratic victories.

Romney would win by at least 7 points if the election were held today. This is because many people are afraid to tell pollsters what they will really do in the voting booth. Democrats do not trust pollsters, fearing their names will be added to lists that could end up in the hands of Democrats or unions. The Scott Walker recall election in the Democratic state of Wisconsin was a good example of this. A Scott Walker victory of 2 to 4 points was predicted, and Walker won by 14 points.

The polls are interesting, and sometimes useful. But I don't put a whole lot of faith in any of them. I think Rasmussen has the best track record. Gallup had some golden years a long while back, then became kind of an outlier. They may have mended that by now.

There are some leading indicators that I tend to pay more attention to than the daily polls.



The total approval rating of the incumbent on election day is a very good indicator of the portion of the popular vote that he will receive. Obama has been above 50% a few times, and may be there on election day. My guess is that he will not. Just looking at the chart, and weighing what is probably going to continue to happen over Benghazi, I think that his total approval rating on election day and his share of the popular vote will be around 47%.

No President has ever been re-elected if most of the people think that the country is on the wrong track. RealClearPolitics has the percentage of people who think the country is on the wrong track at a bit above 54%. That's an average of several polls. IIRC, Rasmussen paints an even more pessimistic picture of Mr. Obama's chances.

Finally, there is the Colorado University model which has correctly called every election since it started in 1980. It is based on the economy and our state of war. It predicts that Obama will get 47.1% of the popular vote.

All in all, the indicators say that it will be about a 52-48 or 53-47 win for Romney. Next Wednesday, we'll find out if those indicators are any good.

I voted Saturday. Vote people.

The diner I was in last sunday had MSNBC on and the dimwits were already discussing the magic negro's second term and the myth of voter fraud! What a [bleep] riot! Our waitress finally noticed it and switched it to ESPN..

Obama is going down.

That is exactly what I fear. The Dems are going to fraud in enormous proportions.

It is a little more than exasperating is it not?