Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Somebody is going to be Shocked on Tuesday....

Your best contribution yet. Keep up the good work

I was also sure the Obamacare Ind. mandate would be voted down. I'm not counting my chickens yet.

What those dem TV hacks won`t tell us is that, with every poll showing Obama ahead, more demoCRAPS are sampled which exceeds Obama`s lead percentage.

Oct 31, 1980

FLASH!.........Jimmy (the peanut farmer) Carter ahead of Ronald Reagan by 5 points nationwide.

According to what poll? Interesting!

....Do some googlin....

Lubbock Avalanche Journal September 20, 2012

Gallup Poll: Jimmy Carter 47 -- Ronald Reagan 39
Submitted by may on September 20, 2012 - 12:56am

Pollsters and the news media keep trying to dispirit Mitt Romney�s supporters and to show that Barack Obama will be the inevitable victor. Even after the polling has been packed with Democrats, Obama cannot show a convincing lead that would take him to victory.

Past polls have also shown Democrats leading their Republican opponents up to the election. One of the most dramatic was a Gallup Poll result 2 weeks before the 1980 General Election that showed Jimmy Carter to be far ahead of Ronald Reagan. Rush Limbaugh stated,

In a Gallup poll on October 26th in 1980, two weeks before the election, Gallup had it Jimmy Carter 47, Ronald Reagan 39. That election two weeks later ended up in a landslide that was so big that Carter conceded before California closed.

The New York Times verified this poll,

Ronald Reagan, who trailed President Jimmy Carter 47 percent to 39 percent in a survey completed on Oct. 26, 1980.

As did Wikipedia,

Arguably the most important event of the entire 1980 presidential campaign was the second presidential debate, which was held one week to the day before the election (October 28).[24] On October 26, two days prior to the debate, Gallup released a survey that suggested that Carter was leading Reagan by a margin of 47% to 39%.

A Gallup Poll of July 26, 1988, showed Michael S. Dukakis leading George H. W. Bush by 17 points. The New York Times reported,

In the aftermath of the Democratic National Convention, the party's nominee, Michael S. Dukakis, has expanded his lead among registered voters over Vice President Bush, the probable Republican nominee, according to a Gallup Poll.

This was among the findings of a national public opinion poll of 948 registered voters conducted late last week for Newsweek magazine by the Gallup Organization. The telephone interviews took place on July 21, which was the last night of the convention, and on the night after that.

Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Karl Rove stated on Wednesday during a Fox News interview that major polls still showing Obama ahead of Romney have a disproportionate number of Democrats among those polled.

The New York Times/CBS poll has Obama up 3 points over Romney but has 13% more Democrats in the poll than Republicans.

A CNN/ORC poll has Obama up by 6 points but polled 10% more Democrats than Republicans.

A Washington Post/ABC poll has Obama ahead by 1 point but polled 6% more Democrats.

The Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Tracking Poll has the race essentially tied. Likely voters were polled with no excess Democrats added.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 46% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.

When �leaners� are included, the race is tied with both Obama and Romney at 48%. Leaners are those who are initially uncommitted to the two leading candidates but lean towards one of them when asked a follow-up question.

It is important for Republicans to not be discouraged by polls and the news media that is desperately encouraging them to give up and to cede the election to Barack Obama. This is not logical, as the polls are significantly overpredicting Democratic victories.

Romney would win by at least 7 points if the election were held today. This is because many people are afraid to tell pollsters what they will really do in the voting booth. Democrats do not trust pollsters, fearing their names will be added to lists that could end up in the hands of Democrats or unions. The Scott Walker recall election in the Democratic state of Wisconsin was a good example of this. A Scott Walker victory of 2 to 4 points was predicted, and Walker won by 14 points.

The polls are interesting, and sometimes useful. But I don't put a whole lot of faith in any of them. I think Rasmussen has the best track record. Gallup had some golden years a long while back, then became kind of an outlier. They may have mended that by now.

There are some leading indicators that I tend to pay more attention to than the daily polls.



The total approval rating of the incumbent on election day is a very good indicator of the portion of the popular vote that he will receive. Obama has been above 50% a few times, and may be there on election day. My guess is that he will not. Just looking at the chart, and weighing what is probably going to continue to happen over Benghazi, I think that his total approval rating on election day and his share of the popular vote will be around 47%.

No President has ever been re-elected if most of the people think that the country is on the wrong track. RealClearPolitics has the percentage of people who think the country is on the wrong track at a bit above 54%. That's an average of several polls. IIRC, Rasmussen paints an even more pessimistic picture of Mr. Obama's chances.

Finally, there is the Colorado University model which has correctly called every election since it started in 1980. It is based on the economy and our state of war. It predicts that Obama will get 47.1% of the popular vote.

All in all, the indicators say that it will be about a 52-48 or 53-47 win for Romney. Next Wednesday, we'll find out if those indicators are any good.

I voted Saturday. Vote people.

The diner I was in last sunday had MSNBC on and the dimwits were already discussing the magic negro's second term and the myth of voter fraud! What a [bleep] riot! Our waitress finally noticed it and switched it to ESPN..

That is exactly what I fear. The Dems are going to fraud in enormous proportions.

It is a little more than exasperating is it not?