Here's a good read on why things are "what they appear" to be.
"If a rising stock market makes people feel better ( and it does, study after study shows it) AND if a rising market makes powerful people lots of money at the same time... doesn't it make sense that "job one" would be to make the market either go up, or at least... hold steady? You bet it does. That is the WHOLE POINT of this operation."http://www.theinternationalforecast...kly/We_all_know_it_is_going_to_end_badly
Yes, good read.
In the first paragraph, the author mentions S. Druckenmiller who did a very interesting interview recently on Bloomberg. IMO, it is worth watching for anyone with money in the market.
Storm Coming
your stocks appear to be worth more dollars, because the USD is worth Less!
It will soon be like Mexico when you needed a wheelbarrow of pesos to get loaf of bread!
your stocks appear to be worth more dollars, because the USD is worth Less!
Exactly. Fed smoke and mirrors, is all it is. Trickery. Eventually, however, it will hit the wall, and the dollar will collapse. The only true path to recovery is to allow the free market to function, which it currently cannot due to overburden in the areas of regulation and taxation, not to mention uncertainty in both regards.
in terms of main stream economic theory, obama is doing all he can do. he's pouring money into the economy to keep things "propped" up. until a new improved theory comes along i suspect the status quo will continue to prevail.
in terms of main stream economic theory, obama is doing all he can do. he's pouring money into the economy to keep things "propped" up. until a new improved theory comes along i suspect the status quo will continue to prevail.
As you likely well know, Keynesian (i.e., neo-Marxist) economics became "mainstream" because of the advantages it affords both politicians and the banking community, who then determine which university economics programs receive funds and which do not. Free market economics, on the contrary, don't particularly benefit either politicians or the banking community, for reasons that shouldn't require elaboration.
As soon as we started talking about electing obama as president things started falling apart. Before that things were being held together. Remember don't change anything just go on about your business as normal and they don't win. Now look at all the changes that has been made and they are wining.
in terms of main stream economic theory, obama is doing all he can do. he's pouring money into the economy to keep things "propped" up. until a new improved theory comes along i suspect the status quo will continue to prevail.
He's doing all he can do alright.....and it's doing exactly what he wants it to do, TANK!
probably fundamental structural change is the only thing that will save us? ...related to taxes, overseas competition, the national deficit, and the national debt.
but, who can endure fundamental structural change, and what might it look like??
further add-ons, further down the list include social security, medicare, illegal aliens, and high energy prices.
pretty well written article
sums up things fairly nicely to my views and analysis
"backed by the full faith and credit of the US gov't"
doesn't help me sleep well
if it does for you, well then pleasant dreams
"It is NOT an accident when the biggest manufacturing powerhouse in the world falls apart. It is NOT an accident when the world�s largest creditor nation is now the world�s biggest debtor. Plans were laid; decisions made, politicians appointed, laws/rules/regulations/treaties etc were passed. All in the name of "advancement" of course.
What they changed us into is something called a consumption society. Instead of becoming richer by exporting tremendous goods around the globe and taking in the profits, now we cut each others lawns, as we are a "service" society.
-------------------------------
I was ok with the article until the author introduced socialism as the driver for it.
I can't make the connection.
Big business has an obligation to the stockholders, and beginning in the late 70's and blowing up in the early 90's, the quickest way to boost shareholder value was to cut costs meaning moving production to 3rd world [bleep] and taking the manufacturing out of this country.
At the same time, productivity for America skyrocketed because what manufacturing did stay was heavily automated and computer aided - meaning fewer workers were needed. Then in the 90's, the computer revolution jolted the service economy with decent paying jobs along with an aging population that needed healthcare workers. These jobs helped but only for those that were motivated to move beyond a high school education. For the masses that our education system is geared toward cranking out, the manufacturing jobs of the 60's were gone and they had to look toward the service sector for jobs that made ends meet.
So , unless someone wants to correct me, unfettered capitalism is what drove our manufacturing down.
And who are stockholders? well its not the guy making $35K a year on the assembly at the local factory - its the wealthiest percentage of Americans who use stock income as a hedge against taxes.
This is why you have the greatest disparity in our nations history between the wealthiest Americans and the ever shrinking middle class/poor. Its why blue chip companies are booming while American unemployment stays high.
and its exactly why liberal policies and democrats are able to continue to have a foothold in this country - because globalism eliminates opportunities for the working masses here in the United States as we continue to work toward a leveling in the standard of living among all the inhabitants.
We see those same issues in India and China now - strong demand for cheap labor has stretched those countries where their average wage has gone up -certainly not anywhere near the standards we have in this country, but to the point that companies are looking to move manufacturing back to the US (with completely automated factories and robots replacing the Asian throwaway workers) or moving them to even worse 3rd world countries.
Clearly socialism isn't the answer, but in our country today, its the only solution being presented. Socialism say take from the wealthiest who are benefiting from this economy and give to those are are suffering because of it, and the voting masses play this out in every election.
Recent events have me wishing I was in the market right now, but I still have a gut feeling there's a train coming through the tunnel. Frustrating.
Kfwa what about the corruptbunions driving up labor costs to unreasonable levels?
Conveniently left that out of your post
Kfwa also left out punitive corporate tax rates!
Blaming capitalism is a cornerstone of the socialist!
So , unless someone wants to correct me, unfettered capitalism is what drove our manufacturing down.
It was hardly unfettered. It was, in fact, the extent to which it was fettered (regulations leading to moral hazard, malinvestment, captured regulators, crony capitalism, inhibition to new entry into sectors of business, etc.) that caused its downfall.
perhaps unfettered isn't the right word - but a result of socialism? I don't think so.
As for Unions, union decline started well before the growth of outsourcing. While wages - driven up by unions may have been the cause, at what price point would a manufacturer whose obligation to maximize shareholder profit to keep paying Americans a lower wage compared to $3 a day in a 3rd world country.
I don't think I'm blaming capitalism, I'm just stating what happened and the idea that the current push for socialism is what is driving the market seems off to me.
"Big business has an obligation to the stockholders, and beginning in the late 70's and blowing up in the early 90's, the quickest way to boost shareholder value was to cut costs meaning moving production to 3rd world [bleep] and taking the manufacturing out of this country.
Also the time that businesses were hiring COO's and CEO's with MBA's instead of hiring from within (worker on the ffloor to mid management on up), or passing the business from father to son through inheritance. There is no loyalty to the business operation, or to the workers, when it is just one more job, and there is another waiting for the COO/CEO. At that point, the loyalty is to the board of dirrectors and the stock holders. When the bubble pops, they shuffle off any company owned components that they can, shut the company down, give themselves bonuses and network for the next job.
There is no thought to the future generation, or running the company into perpetuity. Selling out became the new American dream, and worse, the new business model. Work for a living? Hell no, where's the lump sum...
Recent events have me wishing I was in the market right now, but I still have a gut feeling there's a train coming through the tunnel. Frustrating.
Yep...been sitting this one out myself. Had a little in-and-out for a bit a couple years ago, but mostly out for all this recent hoopla.
Cant win em all, and I suspect things will "correct". We're near 20% real unemployment in some areas- my crystal ball tells me thats not a good thing.
Good thing i held on to all of those 1920's marks,about 6 billion i think.
One day i will be rich.
12-15% of the US GDP is health care... so sickness is a indicator of economic health.
"Big business has an obligation to the stockholders, and beginning in the late 70's and blowing up in the early 90's, the quickest way to boost shareholder value was to cut costs meaning moving production to 3rd world [bleep] and taking the manufacturing out of this country.
Also the time that businesses were hiring COO's and CEO's with MBA's instead of hiring from within (worker on the ffloor to mid management on up), or passing the business from father to son through inheritance. There is no loyalty to the business operation, or to the workers, when it is just one more job, and there is another waiting for the COO/CEO. At that point, the loyalty is to the board of dirrectors and the stock holders. When the bubble pops, they shuffle off any company owned components that they can, shut the company down, give themselves bonuses and network for the next job.
There is no thought to the future generation, or running the company into perpetuity. Selling out became the new American dream, and worse, the new business model. Work for a living? Hell no, where's the lump sum...
After 20+ years of working for major corporations this is largely my opinion as well.
Ok , so the Market is at or near its old high and looks like it will drop like a rock .... some tauts say the Crash has already started . But when and how much ? What are your best guesses ? Looks like past drops were maybe 40-50% and take maybe 2-3 years to run back up . So if you were sitting on a pile of Greenbacks ( no Stocks ) , would you wait to buy in at -40% , or switch to one of the very few ( even partially stable Currencies in the world based partly on Gold ) guessing that there will be no fundamental direction changes in the US Economy while Obama makes the decisions ??? Who has the best Crystal Ball ? It will be interesting to review the responses 6 months from now !
A few question here. The write up talks about selling and buying long and short. What does buying short mean??? Also, no is talking about what to do about it. I have some stocks. If I loose it all it won't make much difference. If I take it out ( most in IRA's) I get the money. What the heck do I do with some green paper or a bank note with numbers on it?? The sorry truth is there seems to be no good investment now , except ammo but I can't find any now anyway. Land and houses may very well crash too. If times do get tough housing will crash with kids moving back in moms basement. I don't know what to buy. Don't laugh but I have been guying clothes, light bulbs, tools, some guns ,ammo if I can find it. I decided to give more to my church debt too. Any other ideas where to put money???
A few question here. The write up talks about selling and buying long and short. What does buying short mean???
It means you're purchasing a future right to sell at the current price, i.e., someone sold you an obligation on their part to, at a later date, purchase from you at today's price. It means you predict prices will go down and the person you bought the short position from is betting the other way. If the price goes down, you simply make the purchase in the market at the reduced price and sell them to the long participant in your contract at the old higher price.
Google "call" and "put" options.
We could go to 16-17k before a significant pull back. Who knows? If anybody knew, they could go short and and be a millionaire.
Get in, if you get scared, put a limit sell order in. Sitting out is ok too, but some other a-hole is cashing in to the tune of 10-16% in this market.
I like to keep a chunk of change on the sidelines though. If it does crash, I'll be picking 3 or 4 stocks to buy when things get retardedly cheap.
For example.. If you had bought 5k shares of Cabela's at $6 back in 2009 for 30k, you'd be able to sell it for $306,200 right now. Who is bitching about returns again?!! We all knew cabelas is a good company.. we all knew $6 was retardly cheap!
No way around it.. money makes you money. It's why the rich get richer, and the poor get poorer. It's no vast conspiracy by international bankers, etc. It's just how things work. Get some money and buy assets, and then you'll know what I'm talking about.