The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
![[Linked Image]](http://thefederalistpapers.integratedmarket.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Climate_Change_Scam_3_498x750.jpg)
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
that pretty much sums it up.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
It would be funny if it were not so true.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
Then there was that great science expert and all-round intellectual Woody Harrelson, who proclaimed that the oceans would be dead by 2000. And wasn't Miami/south Florida supposed to be under water by now?
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
Something like 1/3 of Bangladesh is lower than 3' above sea level. Thousands of the islands get entirely flooded every time there's a storm. The residents live in stilt houses. With the 'global warming', the country should be non-existent by now but for some reason, it's still there.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
Says a lot about science beyond just global warming.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
KFWA: Don't forget the dire predictions regarding "acid rain" from the 60's!
"The sky is falling, the sky is falling"! (Chicken Little - i.e. demonrats)
Hold into the wind
VarmintGuy
"The sky is falling, the sky is falling"! (Chicken Little - i.e. demonrats)
Hold into the wind
VarmintGuy
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
AlGore invented climate change. Shouldn't he be dead by now.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
Paradigm Shift
Quote
Since the 1960s, the concept of a paradigm shift has also been used in numerous non-scientific contexts to describe a profound change in a fundamental model or perception of events, even though Kuhn himself restricted the use of the term to the physical sciences.
In a 2015 retrospective on Kuhn, the philosopher Martin Cohen describes the notion of the ‘Paradigm Shift’ as a kind of intellectual virus – spreading from hard science to social science and on to the arts and even everyday political rhetoric today. Cohen claims that Thomas Kuhn himself had only a very hazy idea of what it might mean and, in line with the American philosopher of science, Paul Feyerabend, accuses Kuhn of retreating from the more radical implications of his theory, which are that scientific facts are never really more than opinions, whose popularity is transitory and far from conclusive.
In a 2015 retrospective on Kuhn, the philosopher Martin Cohen describes the notion of the ‘Paradigm Shift’ as a kind of intellectual virus – spreading from hard science to social science and on to the arts and even everyday political rhetoric today. Cohen claims that Thomas Kuhn himself had only a very hazy idea of what it might mean and, in line with the American philosopher of science, Paul Feyerabend, accuses Kuhn of retreating from the more radical implications of his theory, which are that scientific facts are never really more than opinions, whose popularity is transitory and far from conclusive.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
Originally Posted by KFWA
Very good.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
Yeah but here are the facts:
1. CO2 levels have in fact been rising year over year for some decades.
2. That does in fact increase temperature long term. That has been measured.
3. However, the effects are complex and there are interrelationships. For instance, ocean warming evaporates more water, which makes more clouds, which deflects sunlight to some extent. Therefore the EXACT outcomes are difficult to predict.
4. The models keep getting better as more data is measured. Our best predictions right now are that the world average temperature will rise between 3.5 to 5.2 decrees Centigrade by 2100.
5. The Paris accord, which President Trump wisely scrapped, would only have changed this outcome by about 0.2 degrees. It was not worth its cost to the US.
6. 75% of all CO2 now in the atmosphere will stay there for 500 years. If we stopped all fossil fuel burning right now, the earth would continue to warm.
7. The oceans will rise. Period. How much depends on many factors difficult to predict.
8. The warming will not stop in 2100.
Those are the facts. All else is supposition and politics, on both sides.
1. CO2 levels have in fact been rising year over year for some decades.
2. That does in fact increase temperature long term. That has been measured.
3. However, the effects are complex and there are interrelationships. For instance, ocean warming evaporates more water, which makes more clouds, which deflects sunlight to some extent. Therefore the EXACT outcomes are difficult to predict.
4. The models keep getting better as more data is measured. Our best predictions right now are that the world average temperature will rise between 3.5 to 5.2 decrees Centigrade by 2100.
5. The Paris accord, which President Trump wisely scrapped, would only have changed this outcome by about 0.2 degrees. It was not worth its cost to the US.
6. 75% of all CO2 now in the atmosphere will stay there for 500 years. If we stopped all fossil fuel burning right now, the earth would continue to warm.
7. The oceans will rise. Period. How much depends on many factors difficult to predict.
8. The warming will not stop in 2100.
Those are the facts. All else is supposition and politics, on both sides.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
+1, there is no denying that every time I start my truck there is heat introduced into the atmosphere that was not there before. Same with my AC condenser, etc. How much difference is it really - damn little, a drop in the ocean but it's there. I think a moderate approach is appropriate - be conscious of what we are doing but don't go crazy with it. Makes one wonder what a huge forest fire does or a long cold winter?
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
From Wikipedia, Summer (June–August) 1936
The 1936 North American heat wave was the most severe heat wave in the modern history of North America.
It took place in the middle of the Great Depression and Dust Bowl of the 1930s, and caused catastrophic human suffering and an enormous economic toll. The death toll exceeded 5,000, and huge numbers of crops were destroyed by the heat and lack of moisture. Many state and city record high temperatures set during the 1936 heat wave stood until the Summer 2012 North American heat wave.
The 1936 heat wave followed one of the coldest winters on record.
The 1936 North American heat wave was the most severe heat wave in the modern history of North America.
It took place in the middle of the Great Depression and Dust Bowl of the 1930s, and caused catastrophic human suffering and an enormous economic toll. The death toll exceeded 5,000, and huge numbers of crops were destroyed by the heat and lack of moisture. Many state and city record high temperatures set during the 1936 heat wave stood until the Summer 2012 North American heat wave.
The 1936 heat wave followed one of the coldest winters on record.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
Originally Posted by IndyCA35
Yeah but here are the facts:
1. CO2 levels have in fact been rising year over year for some decades.
2. That does in fact increase temperature long term. That has been measured.
3. However, the effects are complex and there are interrelationships. For instance, ocean warming evaporates more water, which makes more clouds, which deflects sunlight to some extent. Therefore the EXACT outcomes are difficult to predict.
4. The models keep getting better as more data is measured. Our best predictions right now are that the world average temperature will rise between 3.5 to 5.2 decrees Centigrade by 2100.
5. The Paris accord, which President Trump wisely scrapped, would only have changed this outcome by about 0.2 degrees. It was not worth its cost to the US.
6. 75% of all CO2 now in the atmosphere will stay there for 500 years. If we stopped all fossil fuel burning right now, the earth would continue to warm.
7. The oceans will rise. Period. How much depends on many factors difficult to predict.
8. The warming will not stop in 2100.
Those are the facts. All else is supposition and politics, on both sides.
1. CO2 levels have in fact been rising year over year for some decades.
2. That does in fact increase temperature long term. That has been measured.
3. However, the effects are complex and there are interrelationships. For instance, ocean warming evaporates more water, which makes more clouds, which deflects sunlight to some extent. Therefore the EXACT outcomes are difficult to predict.
4. The models keep getting better as more data is measured. Our best predictions right now are that the world average temperature will rise between 3.5 to 5.2 decrees Centigrade by 2100.
5. The Paris accord, which President Trump wisely scrapped, would only have changed this outcome by about 0.2 degrees. It was not worth its cost to the US.
6. 75% of all CO2 now in the atmosphere will stay there for 500 years. If we stopped all fossil fuel burning right now, the earth would continue to warm.
7. The oceans will rise. Period. How much depends on many factors difficult to predict.
8. The warming will not stop in 2100.
Those are the facts. All else is supposition and politics, on both sides.
1. CO2 levels have been much higher in the past as noted in captured samples, without any correlation to global temperature.
2.If what I just posted at 1 is true (and it is) this point is moot.
3. Exact outcomes are very difficult to predict when the least consequential causes are relied on.
4. Many scenarios show Earth will be better off, temperature-wise at higher temperatures. It will increase food production in many areas beyond the losses in a few.
5. Agreed.
6. You are talking significantly less than 1%... white noise in the real World.
7. Back to answer 3... of course we have temperature swings based on large events and Ice Ages happen... trying to pin it on one tiny element in a huge equation is absurd.
8. The sky IS falling! Reread 7. Many folks in the land of science are backing away, far away, from MCGW.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
Originally Posted by IndyCA35
Yeah but here are the facts:
1. CO2 levels have in fact been rising year over year for some decades.
2. That does in fact increase temperature long term. That has been measured.
Those are the facts. All else is supposition and politics, on both sides.
1. CO2 levels have in fact been rising year over year for some decades.
2. That does in fact increase temperature long term. That has been measured.
Those are the facts. All else is supposition and politics, on both sides.
Apparently your "facts" have been superseded by newer "facts". I read a paper the other day which stated CO2 levels follow increasing temperature!
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
Originally Posted by Ringman
Originally Posted by IndyCA35
Yeah but here are the facts:
1. CO2 levels have in fact been rising year over year for some decades.
2. That does in fact increase temperature long term. That has been measured.
Those are the facts. All else is supposition and politics, on both sides.
1. CO2 levels have in fact been rising year over year for some decades.
2. That does in fact increase temperature long term. That has been measured.
Those are the facts. All else is supposition and politics, on both sides.
Apparently your "facts" have been superseded by newer "facts". I read a paper the other day which stated CO2 levels follow increasing temperature!
You should have taken elementary science in high school.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
Originally Posted by centershot
+1, there is no denying that every time I start my truck there is heat introduced into the atmosphere that was not there before. Same with my AC condenser, etc. How much difference is it really - damn little, a drop in the ocean but it's there. I think a moderate approach is appropriate - be conscious of what we are doing but don't go crazy with it. Makes one wonder what a huge forest fire does or a long cold winter?
Considering that the natural state is cold and dry then I don't really get terribly bothered by warmer and wetter.
I leave that for f-wits and those that make their living screaming about the sky falling.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
There is no such thing as "settled science." The phrase implies the science can no longer be questioned. That makes it dogma. That makes it religion, not science.
Tom
Tom
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
Originally Posted by IndyCA35
Yeah but here are the facts:
1. CO2 levels have in fact been rising year over year for some decades. Yes this is a fact
2. That does in fact increase temperature long term. That has been measured. Only a fact if CO2 is the only variable, ignoring all other variables that the environment has to offer is bad science.
3. However, the effects are complex and there are interrelationships. For instance, ocean warming evaporates more water, which makes more clouds, which deflects sunlight to some extent. Therefore the EXACT outcomes are difficult to predict. Exact outcomes are impossible to predict
4. The models keep getting better as more data is measured. Our best predictions right now are that the world average temperature will rise between 3.5 to 5.2 decrees Centigrade by 2100. It is a fact that that is our best prediction, not a fact that it will happen.
5. The Paris accord, which President Trump wisely scrapped, would only have changed this outcome by about 0.2 degrees. It was not worth its cost to the US. No possible way you could state the outcome of the deal as fact
6. 75% of all CO2 now in the atmosphere will stay there for 500 years. If we stopped all fossil fuel burning right now, the earth would continue to warm. Continue for how long?500 years? one of these seems like a fact the other, yet another prediction.
7. The oceans will rise. Period. How much depends on many factors difficult to predict. They have risen slightly might continue to buy may also fall based on may factors that are impossible to predict.
8. The warming will not stop in 2100. Not a fact but again a prediction
Those are the facts. All else is supposition and politics, on both sides.
1. CO2 levels have in fact been rising year over year for some decades. Yes this is a fact
2. That does in fact increase temperature long term. That has been measured. Only a fact if CO2 is the only variable, ignoring all other variables that the environment has to offer is bad science.
3. However, the effects are complex and there are interrelationships. For instance, ocean warming evaporates more water, which makes more clouds, which deflects sunlight to some extent. Therefore the EXACT outcomes are difficult to predict. Exact outcomes are impossible to predict
4. The models keep getting better as more data is measured. Our best predictions right now are that the world average temperature will rise between 3.5 to 5.2 decrees Centigrade by 2100. It is a fact that that is our best prediction, not a fact that it will happen.
5. The Paris accord, which President Trump wisely scrapped, would only have changed this outcome by about 0.2 degrees. It was not worth its cost to the US. No possible way you could state the outcome of the deal as fact
6. 75% of all CO2 now in the atmosphere will stay there for 500 years. If we stopped all fossil fuel burning right now, the earth would continue to warm. Continue for how long?500 years? one of these seems like a fact the other, yet another prediction.
7. The oceans will rise. Period. How much depends on many factors difficult to predict. They have risen slightly might continue to buy may also fall based on may factors that are impossible to predict.
8. The warming will not stop in 2100. Not a fact but again a prediction
Those are the facts. All else is supposition and politics, on both sides.
People seem to be confused as to what exactly a fact is. Predictions, assumptions, feelings, trends, etc... are not facts.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
I agree that climate change happens. The root cause, however, is not definitively known.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
My local weather predictor uses 6 models to predict tomorrows weather, and yet still gets it wrong on occasion. So how many computer models do these long term weather predictors use, and who in their right mind thinks they are going to be right in the end.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
That burning fossil fuel increases CO2 and increases temperature is a proven fact. However, it heats the earth IN ADDITION TO other factors that may cause heating or cooling. Here are some:
The midieval climactic optimum, from 800 to 1300 AD Caused grapes to grow in Newfoundland and farming became possible in Greenland. This was followed by the Little Ice Age, as it is called, until the 1800s. Causes unknown.
Regional factors. The glaciers in Alaska have been receding for about 250 years. SUVs didn't cause it.
Volcanos. The eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, in about 1980, cut the sunlight reaching the earth by 10% for many months. We didn't 't notice a temperature change because the earth is so massive. But if this were to continue for thousands of years, the earth would get much colder.
The "Asian Brown Cloud." This is caused by pollution and forest clearing. It has made the earth about 2 degrees C colder than otherwise. It was only discovered in 2002.
The midieval climactic optimum, from 800 to 1300 AD Caused grapes to grow in Newfoundland and farming became possible in Greenland. This was followed by the Little Ice Age, as it is called, until the 1800s. Causes unknown.
Regional factors. The glaciers in Alaska have been receding for about 250 years. SUVs didn't cause it.
Volcanos. The eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, in about 1980, cut the sunlight reaching the earth by 10% for many months. We didn't 't notice a temperature change because the earth is so massive. But if this were to continue for thousands of years, the earth would get much colder.
The "Asian Brown Cloud." This is caused by pollution and forest clearing. It has made the earth about 2 degrees C colder than otherwise. It was only discovered in 2002.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
And still all the AGW proponents ignore the impact of changes in the sun.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
Originally Posted by TRnCO
My local weather predictor uses 6 models to predict tomorrows weather, and yet still gets it wrong on occasion. So how many computer models do these long term weather predictors use, and who in their right mind thinks they are going to be right in the end.
An educated guess is still a guess.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
Originally Posted by IndyCA35
Yeah but here are the facts:
1. CO2 levels have in fact been rising year over year for some decades.
2. That does in fact increase temperature long term. That has been measured.
3. However, the effects are complex and there are interrelationships. For instance, ocean warming evaporates more water, which makes more clouds, which deflects sunlight to some extent. Therefore the EXACT outcomes are difficult to predict.
4. The models keep getting better as more data is measured. Our best predictions right now are that the world average temperature will rise between 3.5 to 5.2 decrees Centigrade by 2100.
5. The Paris accord, which President Trump wisely scrapped, would only have changed this outcome by about 0.2 degrees. It was not worth its cost to the US.
6. 75% of all CO2 now in the atmosphere will stay there for 500 years. If we stopped all fossil fuel burning right now, the earth would continue to warm.
7. The oceans will rise. Period. How much depends on many factors difficult to predict.
8. The warming will not stop in 2100.
Those are the facts. All else is supposition and politics, on both sides.
1. CO2 levels have in fact been rising year over year for some decades.
2. That does in fact increase temperature long term. That has been measured.
3. However, the effects are complex and there are interrelationships. For instance, ocean warming evaporates more water, which makes more clouds, which deflects sunlight to some extent. Therefore the EXACT outcomes are difficult to predict.
4. The models keep getting better as more data is measured. Our best predictions right now are that the world average temperature will rise between 3.5 to 5.2 decrees Centigrade by 2100.
5. The Paris accord, which President Trump wisely scrapped, would only have changed this outcome by about 0.2 degrees. It was not worth its cost to the US.
6. 75% of all CO2 now in the atmosphere will stay there for 500 years. If we stopped all fossil fuel burning right now, the earth would continue to warm.
7. The oceans will rise. Period. How much depends on many factors difficult to predict.
8. The warming will not stop in 2100.
Those are the facts. All else is supposition and politics, on both sides.
So THESE are the facts? According to whom? And with no biases amd presuppositions?
In today's world, you accept nobody's word for scientific fact unless it's confirmed to the third degree consensually.
How many generations since the early 1800's up to now have been misled by old-age geology and then Darwinian evolution that scientists, even purely secular scientists, now are "leaving" in droves due to its failures to explain simultaneous complexity.
I don't accept those facts at face value; I need "by whom" and context to even consider them.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
Quote
There is no such thing as "settled science." The phrase implies the science can no longer be questioned. That makes it dogma. That makes it religion, not science.
BINGO!
Science is never settled.
Consensus is a political concept, not a scientific principle.
And, for good measure, you often see a list of greenhouse contributors, with carbon dioxide at the top of the list. What gets dropped is the footnote at the bottom of the list that says "excluding water vapor". Water vapor accounts for most of Earth's greenhouse effect.
The wrong question: Is climate change happening?
A better question: Is the variation in climate large enough to make it different from past history?
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
Originally Posted by 5sdad
Says a lot about science beyond just global warming.
Yep. Theys aint no God neither.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
If a person took science in 1970 like I did most all you learned about climate would be wrong.Next guess. Ed k
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
Bottom line, its nothing we can control anyway, carry on.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
![[Linked Image]](http://s1308.photobucket.com/user/jsw7152/media/dt170514_zpsssysijli.jpg.html)
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
Any trend showing an increase in average temperature is based on data derived from someone squinting at a mercury in glass thermometer and "reading" a temperature. That was the way they did it for 100yrs! The supposed increases in temperature average are tenths of a degree. CAN YOU READ A MERCURY IN GLASS THERMOMETER TO A 10TH OF A DEGREE?
I can't either. Half the data they are using to make these computer models and get these averages is SEVERELY flawed. That doesn't even account for the monitoring stations that have been moved to new locations over the years, or been affected by that new building that just went up and reflects sunlight on it all day, or the parking lot that was built and paved that creates a heat island that stays warm most of the night or.......
I can't either. Half the data they are using to make these computer models and get these averages is SEVERELY flawed. That doesn't even account for the monitoring stations that have been moved to new locations over the years, or been affected by that new building that just went up and reflects sunlight on it all day, or the parking lot that was built and paved that creates a heat island that stays warm most of the night or.......
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
Originally Posted by Ringman
Originally Posted by IndyCA35
Yeah but here are the facts:
1. CO2 levels have in fact been rising year over year for some decades.
2. That does in fact increase temperature long term. That has been measured.
Those are the facts. All else is supposition and politics, on both sides.
1. CO2 levels have in fact been rising year over year for some decades.
2. That does in fact increase temperature long term. That has been measured.
Those are the facts. All else is supposition and politics, on both sides.
Apparently your "facts" have been superseded by newer "facts". I read a paper the other day which stated CO2 levels follow increasing temperature!
Can you post a link to that article? I really like to read articles that represent the "other" side. All prediction are ONLY from modeling and much of the data is often cherry picked to provide the "expected" outcome. An example of this was the AGW article hastily published before the Paris meeting - all doom and gloom- but the data was biased by the fact that the oceanic temps which were plotted were from moving ships. These are considered less reliable because the ship can contributed heat to the readings. All of the FLOATING ocean buoy temps were dropped from the study as unreliable which are considered more reliable than the moving ship temps thus biasing the study toward warming. The models do not seem to be able predict past events such as the increase in CO2 levels prior to the last ice age.
Many scientists have stated that they are stepping away from the AGW wackos because it has taken on the essence of a "religion" and they feel unable to do real science. If they publish a study that refutes the going narrative they are being ostracized and even losing their jobs.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
Originally Posted by IndyCA35
Yeah but here are the facts:
1. CO2 levels have in fact been rising year over year for some decades.
2. That does in fact increase temperature long term. That has been measured.
3. However, the effects are complex and there are interrelationships. For instance, ocean warming evaporates more water, which makes more clouds, which deflects sunlight to some extent. Therefore the EXACT outcomes are difficult to predict.
4. The models keep getting better as more data is measured. Our best predictions right now are that the world average temperature will rise between 3.5 to 5.2 decrees Centigrade by 2100.
5. The Paris accord, which President Trump wisely scrapped, would only have changed this outcome by about 0.2 degrees. It was not worth its cost to the US.
6. 75% of all CO2 now in the atmosphere will stay there for 500 years. If we stopped all fossil fuel burning right now, the earth would continue to warm.
7. The oceans will rise. Period. How much depends on many factors difficult to predict.
8. The warming will not stop in 2100.
Those are the facts. All else is supposition and politics, on both sides.
1. CO2 levels have in fact been rising year over year for some decades.
2. That does in fact increase temperature long term. That has been measured.
3. However, the effects are complex and there are interrelationships. For instance, ocean warming evaporates more water, which makes more clouds, which deflects sunlight to some extent. Therefore the EXACT outcomes are difficult to predict.
4. The models keep getting better as more data is measured. Our best predictions right now are that the world average temperature will rise between 3.5 to 5.2 decrees Centigrade by 2100.
5. The Paris accord, which President Trump wisely scrapped, would only have changed this outcome by about 0.2 degrees. It was not worth its cost to the US.
6. 75% of all CO2 now in the atmosphere will stay there for 500 years. If we stopped all fossil fuel burning right now, the earth would continue to warm.
7. The oceans will rise. Period. How much depends on many factors difficult to predict.
8. The warming will not stop in 2100.
Those are the facts. All else is supposition and politics, on both sides.
BS. CO2 has been higher than now 3 times in the the last 450,000 years and more than that in the last 800,000.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
Originally Posted by T_O_M
There is no such thing as "settled science." The phrase implies the science can no longer be questioned. That makes it dogma. That makes it religion, not science.
Tom
Tom
And science's worshipers maintain that what is current is "absolute truth" and shout down any suggestion that perhaps it is wrong.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
Can someone tell me which is NORMAL for the urth:
Trees growing around the Great Lakes from Minn to Maine, or an Ice Sheet that extended as far south as Illinois.........
both have existed prior to the SUV!?!?!?!
Trees growing around the Great Lakes from Minn to Maine, or an Ice Sheet that extended as far south as Illinois.........
both have existed prior to the SUV!?!?!?!
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
Still wondering how my SUV greened Iceland, heated the Urth during the reign of the dinosaurs, and warmed Mars. Leftists are funny. It's always fun when the shills of a scam will stand up and defend the scam.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
Originally Posted by muffin
Can someone tell me which is NORMAL for the urth:
Trees growing around the Great Lakes from Minn to Maine, or an Ice Sheet that extended as far south as Illinois.........
both have existed prior to the SUV!?!?!?!
Trees growing around the Great Lakes from Minn to Maine, or an Ice Sheet that extended as far south as Illinois.........
both have existed prior to the SUV!?!?!?!
Both are normal, one just needs to understand the natural processes that heat and cool the "urth", those processes have been going on for millions of years and are intertwined and complicated. The real question is human activity affecting those natural processes and if so, by how much?
In science, the ability to predict correctly, "wins".
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
The current "Popular Science" is all about global warming and weather. Interesting whether you agree with it or not.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
The earth's climate is always changing in one way or another. Has been for hundreds of millions of years. It's in constant flux, either gradually moving from a warm period into an ice age or the reverse. Currently, we're still gradually moving out of the last ice age towards a warm period. We've been in a warming trend since the peak of the last great ice age, except for a brief (geologically speaking) relapse during the "little ice age."
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
Originally Posted by IndyCA35
Yeah but here are the facts:
3. However, the effects are complex and there are interrelationships. For instance, ocean warming evaporates more water, which makes more clouds, which deflects sunlight to some extent. Therefore the EXACT outcomes are difficult to predict.
4. The models keep getting better as more data is measured. Our best predictions right now are that the world average temperature will rise between 3.5 to 5.2 decrees Centigrade by 2100.
5. The Paris accord, which President Trump wisely scrapped, would only have changed this outcome by about 0.2 degrees. It was not worth its cost to the US.
6. 75% of all CO2 now in the atmosphere will stay there for 500 years. If we stopped all fossil fuel burning right now, the earth would continue to warm.
Those are the facts. All else is supposition and politics, on both sides.
3. However, the effects are complex and there are interrelationships. For instance, ocean warming evaporates more water, which makes more clouds, which deflects sunlight to some extent. Therefore the EXACT outcomes are difficult to predict.
4. The models keep getting better as more data is measured. Our best predictions right now are that the world average temperature will rise between 3.5 to 5.2 decrees Centigrade by 2100.
5. The Paris accord, which President Trump wisely scrapped, would only have changed this outcome by about 0.2 degrees. It was not worth its cost to the US.
6. 75% of all CO2 now in the atmosphere will stay there for 500 years. If we stopped all fossil fuel burning right now, the earth would continue to warm.
Those are the facts. All else is supposition and politics, on both sides.
Those numbers are no better than the others posted up a decade ago, which were very wrong.
The estimates have been terrible, and thats not even factoring in the long term feedback mechanisms you allude to in #3.
Saying "FACT" and .2 deg and 5.2 by 2100 is a freaking joke and you are kidding yourself, but not everyone, that its more than a ballpark guess.
And THAT, is fact.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
Originally Posted by FreeMe
And still all the AGW proponents ignore the impact of changes in the sun.
Dot bring up the sun. we cant tax or control that.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/21/17
Originally Posted by denton
Quote
There is no such thing as "settled science." The phrase implies the science can no longer be questioned. That makes it dogma. That makes it religion, not science.
BINGO!
Science is never settled.
Consensus is a political concept, not a scientific principle.
And, for good measure, you often see a list of greenhouse contributors, with carbon dioxide at the top of the list. What gets dropped is the footnote at the bottom of the list that says "excluding water vapor". Water vapor accounts for most of Earth's greenhouse effect.
The wrong question: Is climate change happening?
A better question: Is the variation in climate large enough to make it different from past history?
^
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/22/17
Originally Posted by IndyCA35
Originally Posted by Ringman
Originally Posted by IndyCA35
Yeah but here are the facts:
1. CO2 levels have in fact been rising year over year for some decades.
2. That does in fact increase temperature long term. That has been measured.
Those are the facts. All else is supposition and politics, on both sides.
1. CO2 levels have in fact been rising year over year for some decades.
2. That does in fact increase temperature long term. That has been measured.
Those are the facts. All else is supposition and politics, on both sides.
Apparently your "facts" have been superseded by newer "facts". I read a paper the other day which stated CO2 levels follow increasing temperature!
You should have taken elementary science in high school.
You shouldn't be locked into a loosing position.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/22/17
A tightening one is better.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/22/17
Originally Posted by Prwlr
Originally Posted by Ringman
Originally Posted by IndyCA35
Yeah but here are the facts:
1. CO2 levels have in fact been rising year over year for some decades.
2. That does in fact increase temperature long term. That has been measured.
Those are the facts. All else is supposition and politics, on both sides.
1. CO2 levels have in fact been rising year over year for some decades.
2. That does in fact increase temperature long term. That has been measured.
Those are the facts. All else is supposition and politics, on both sides.
Apparently your "facts" have been superseded by newer "facts". I read a paper the other day which stated CO2 levels follow increasing temperature!
Can you post a link to that article? I really like to read articles that represent the "other" side. All prediction are ONLY from modeling and much of the data is often cherry picked to provide the "expected" outcome. An example of this was the AGW article hastily published before the Paris meeting - all doom and gloom- but the data was biased by the fact that the oceanic temps which were plotted were from moving ships. These are considered less reliable because the ship can contributed heat to the readings. All of the FLOATING ocean buoy temps were dropped from the study as unreliable which are considered more reliable than the moving ship temps thus biasing the study toward warming. The models do not seem to be able predict past events such as the increase in CO2 levels prior to the last ice age.
Many scientists have stated that they are stepping away from the AGW wackos because it has taken on the essence of a "religion" and they feel unable to do real science. If they publish a study that refutes the going narrative they are being ostracized and even losing their jobs.
I didn't find the paper I read, but did bing and came up with this: https:/
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/22/17
CO2 comprises only about .04% of the atmosphere. By comparison, water composes from .4 to 1% of the total gases. That's varying from 10x to 25x the level of CO2. Water has a roughly 25% higher specific heat at normal atmospheric temperatures.
Water vapor is impossible to tax or control while CO2 can be blamed with better political results.
The oceans are very complex but in general, they give off more CO2 as the water warms and absorb more as it cools. The resulting CO2 levels FOLLOW the warming or cooling. It's a very slow process, taking decades to make any appreciable difference.
Water vapor is impossible to tax or control while CO2 can be blamed with better political results.
The oceans are very complex but in general, they give off more CO2 as the water warms and absorb more as it cools. The resulting CO2 levels FOLLOW the warming or cooling. It's a very slow process, taking decades to make any appreciable difference.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/22/17
Originally Posted by Crockettnj
Originally Posted by IndyCA35
Yeah but here are the facts:
3. However, the effects are complex and there are interrelationships. For instance, ocean warming evaporates more water, which makes more clouds, which deflects sunlight to some extent. Therefore the EXACT outcomes are difficult to predict.
4. The models keep getting better as more data is measured. Our best predictions right now are that the world average temperature will rise between 3.5 to 5.2 decrees Centigrade by 2100.
5. The Paris accord, which President Trump wisely scrapped, would only have changed this outcome by about 0.2 degrees. It was not worth its cost to the US.
6. 75% of all CO2 now in the atmosphere will stay there for 500 years. If we stopped all fossil fuel burning right now, the earth would continue to warm.
Those are the facts. All else is supposition and politics, on both sides.
3. However, the effects are complex and there are interrelationships. For instance, ocean warming evaporates more water, which makes more clouds, which deflects sunlight to some extent. Therefore the EXACT outcomes are difficult to predict.
4. The models keep getting better as more data is measured. Our best predictions right now are that the world average temperature will rise between 3.5 to 5.2 decrees Centigrade by 2100.
5. The Paris accord, which President Trump wisely scrapped, would only have changed this outcome by about 0.2 degrees. It was not worth its cost to the US.
6. 75% of all CO2 now in the atmosphere will stay there for 500 years. If we stopped all fossil fuel burning right now, the earth would continue to warm.
Those are the facts. All else is supposition and politics, on both sides.
Those numbers are no better than the others posted up a decade ago, which were very wrong.
The estimates have been terrible, and thats not even factoring in the long term feedback mechanisms you allude to in #3.
Saying "FACT" and .2 deg and 5.2 by 2100 is a freaking joke and you are kidding yourself, but not everyone, that its more than a ballpark guess.
And THAT, is fact.
The 3.5 and 5.2 degree figures are the latest and best predictions by the IPCC. So is the 0.2 degree prediction for Paris. Those are the best anyone has. They are obviously not exact (which is why they vary from 3.5 to 5.2). I should have made myself clear about the 0.2 degree effect of Paris. The point is that it is probably too small to measure. The Paris agreement was a triumph of hope over science. And, incidentally, the 0.2 degree prediction assumed that all the 195 countries would adhere exactly to their promises, which is doubtful.
Someone also mentioned something about the sun's variability. Some scientists have speculated that the sun cooled slightly and that caused the Little Ice Age. As yet there is no way to determine if the sun varies in output. There MAY have been fewer sunspots during the Little Ice Age (the data is sketchy), which might indicate the sun was quieter then.
The link jaguartx posted about CO2 actually lagging temperature by 800 years during the last 400,000 years is interesting. If true, this contradicts what any high school student learns about how CO2 (and water vapor, and methane) absorbs and retains heat, unless, of course, there is some undiscovered feedback effect that takes 800 years to operate. Here's a theory: If volcanos or a variable sun caused cooling the now-cooler oceans could absorb more CO2, removing it from the air. Just the opposite might happen if he volcanos stopped erupting as much.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/22/17
Snow cover vs. bare ground makes a HUGE difference in the reflectivity of the earth. Snow reflects heat, bare ground absorbs it.
The longer there is snow on the ground, the longer the sun's heat is reflected. What determines how long the snow stays? Temperature,sure, but the amount of snow is a bigger factor. If it snows a lot, there is more snow, longer. In other words the amount of precipitation is more important than the temperature.
Same with glaciers. Sure, glaciers move, and melt. But how big a glacier is determines how fast it melts. More ice, the longer it takes to melt. Again, the amount of precipitation is a bigger determination of glacier size than temperature.
So droughts increase temperature, while wet periods decrease it.
The longer there is snow on the ground, the longer the sun's heat is reflected. What determines how long the snow stays? Temperature,sure, but the amount of snow is a bigger factor. If it snows a lot, there is more snow, longer. In other words the amount of precipitation is more important than the temperature.
Same with glaciers. Sure, glaciers move, and melt. But how big a glacier is determines how fast it melts. More ice, the longer it takes to melt. Again, the amount of precipitation is a bigger determination of glacier size than temperature.
So droughts increase temperature, while wet periods decrease it.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/22/17
To best understand this issue, follow the money, period.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/22/17
I noted the word "philosophy" in there...
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/22/17
Originally Posted by IndyCA35
The link jaguartx posted about CO2 actually lagging temperature by 800 years during the last 400,000 years is interesting. If true, this contradicts what any high school student learns about how CO2 (and water vapor, and methane) absorbs and retains heat, ,
Again, no it doesnt. Every HS student who ever took physical science or chemistry, which is most of them, learns about solubility curves. (this one seems like its been in every textbook written https://www.delsearegional.us/Acade...
When covering that, they invariably learn the somewhat counterintuitive concept that gasses are MORE soluble in liquids at cooler temps, and visa versa.
Take it a step simpler, your soda/beer goes flat faster in the warm than cool. As it goes flat, it doesnt warm up.
I really dont care to get in a pissing contest, but the amount of BS hypothesis and inference thats spewed as FACT is tiresome.
"IF every country did THIS or THAT, THEN the world would cool by .2 deg. " Absolutley hogwash. far more variables than the best have a grasp on, and the evidence of prior and current jibberish supports this.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/22/17
Originally Posted by The_Real_Hawkeye
The earth's climate is always changing in one way or another. Has been for hundreds of millions of years. It's in constant flux, either gradually moving from a warm period into an ice age or the reverse. Currently, we're still gradually moving out of the last ice age towards a warm period. We've been in a warming trend since the peak of the last great ice age, except for a brief (geologically speaking) relapse during the "little ice age."
Oh geez...
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/23/17
Originally Posted by The_Real_Hawkeye
My bullshit posts is always changing in one way or another. Have been for hundreds of thousands of posts. It's in constant flux, either gradually moving from a it's da joos period into an negro in a pickup truck or the reverse. Currently, I'm still gradually moving out of the last it's da joos towards a negro period. I've been in a KOTY trend since the peak of the last great joos age, except for a brief (geologically speaking) relapse during the "little negro age."
Can't argue with that.
Re: The Science is settled! - 06/23/17
Originally Posted by Ringman
I didn't find the paper I read, but did bing and came up with this: https://skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm
Thanks RM, good read.