It is a fact that there is no cure for this virus.

It is a fact that mortality rates will affect the elderly and unhealthy worse than the young and healthy.

Overall, mortality is expected to be around 1%, with the vast majority being elderly and unhealthy.


So that said, here we are in the midst of media fueled panic/chaos/economic downturn. The results of all this will not change the mortality.

If the media and govt ignored the whole thing, we would have the same mortality, without all the other negative side effects.


Out of a global population of about 7.5B people, so far about 5000 have died. That's about 0.000006 % of the population.

So why are we doing all this? It has to be politically motivated.

Then I hear Dr Fauci says "this will last about nine months"......hmmmmm. so the chaos will conveniently wind down after the election.

Seems about right.

Scared people are the most easily led.

Amen...

Spot on. This is all a politically motivated panic the sheeple crash the economy operation so Trump can be beaten in the election operation.

I waffled on this between no biggee and oh "S". My current position is that most likely by election time this will be considered as not much more than just one item to add to the MSM bs list for the past year. Hope I am right.

One comment regarding an item in your statement. I do think the absolute panic with which this is being met will in fact change the mortality of this, lessing the death toll. Hoping it shortens the hysteria duration as well.

May both of you conveniently not be 60 or over or have a loved one who is and may none of you and yours get the virus. Not led and not ignoring.

You have just said what I have been thinking for the past few days. If it comes to light that this was orchestrated (which I believe it is) there is going to be a blood bath.

I'm over 65, as is my wife, and it has not changed my opinion one bit.

People would have to have willingly agreed to losing thousands to millions of dollars.

I just dont see it.

I don't necessarily think the virus was set loose on purpose, but the media handling of it will not change the outcomes, in my opinion. In fact the panic buying, and looting that is sure to come, are making things worse.

Someone has to be held accountable for this China, US Media, Globalists . I think the lab in China bungled it .

We are right up there, but that doesn't affect my thinking about how/why this is being hyped by the media.

Yessir.

Oh, probably some ups and downs yet to come. Like every viral season. There will be some morbidity/mortality, like every season.

But are we at the end of the beginning, perhaps, of the hissy fit stage, i hope?

I am 52 having chemo treatment for cancer and diabetes. I have elderly parents and my mother just had a triple bypass surgery. I am still not buying in to the media hype BS and sheeple panicking that is going on.

My thought, for what its worth, its a MSM plot to tank the economy and make Trump look accountable.

There were probably more auto fatalities yesterday than total corona deaths in the US to date.

Sorry, but this thread is bullshit.

True death rate is unknown, but much higher than 1%.

Trump does not get bullied by the media or anyone else. His experts know what they are talking about. The steps taken will save a lot of lives.

Unfortunately, the better this works the more flak Trump is going to get for over-reacting. Think it through!

This corona thing will be mostly over with by memorial day,, july 4 you you wont hear nothing about it,, the MSM will have a new "squirrel" moment and another goose chase, to stampede the sheep

the doctors aren't going that far, but probably not far off the mark

Disregard the media 100%... use your heads and look at who is doing what. Do you really think Trump would do what he is doing if he did not have really smart people telling him real facts?

you got it SD

Democrats are leading the stories in the news as usual. Fox is now owned by liberals too. The coup continues because no arrest or convictions.

Exactly

The demoncraps never give up on a good crisis. They have admitted the same.

I believe all these school closings are primarily orchestrated by lieberal Superintendents and College/University Presidents to blow it all out of proportion leaving Trump to take the fall. When the facts are young people are more or less immune to the disease.

I don't believe they are anywhere near the end.

Go ahead and confuse the argument with nonsensical arguments while trying to argue both sides toward the same wrong point.

Come on, it's the Fire, what were your expectations for such a discussion? ;-)

Usually there is at least a little fact-checking after the crowd gets spun up and thongs begin to knot!?!?

I am not going to speak for down south, but this will be tough on smaller Alaska villages. Limited medical care and lots of unhealthy older folks. Obesity, smoking, and underlying health issues is the norm. I pray it doesn’t come here but we all know it will.

MM, see my link I posted early today. My take is this is a well-orchestrated plan to attack the President, nothing more.

COVID-19

Thanks for that thong reference. Now I am visualizing the pitchfork and torches scene from Frankenstein, only with a bunch of sexagenarians wearing leopard thongs... Mind bleach, where's the mind bleach?

The Democrats, the msm and the never Trumpers are praying this virus will do what Mueller, the Russians and the Ukranians couldn’t and gets President Trump out of Office. I do hope this blows up in their faces .

A few are going to die and many, many more are going to live. Don't quit living because you're afraid of dying.

There is very little that can be done now. Tone up your hygiene and avoid crowds. Take a pill when it's available, if you want.

And no, this tread is not Bullshit. Our arch enemies are trying to use this mini-crisis to destroy this country. Period. Anyone who doesn't know that doesn't know much.

Agreed.

Agreed

I bought TP and updated my storage a bit about Jan 21. One person's being prepared is another person's panic. I hope it's not bad but I'm overweight, on immunosuppressants and prednisone, have severe apnea, and have 3 small kids. I'd like to be around for them so I'm a bit concerned.

Lots of people saying don't panic, listen to the experts, etc.. I've been listening to the experts. I heard Jan 21 that this would be a global pandemic and would probably have at least 1000 us cases by the middle of march and then double every 4-6 days.

I haven't started to isolate at home just yet but will start soon. They say there are no cases in Idaho but my wifes a PA at a medical clinic owned by a large local hospital and they aren't able to test yet. She says they don't even have any green top virus vacuum tubes at her clinic and have no protective gear or masks. Yesterday was the first time they've even mentioned it to staff and only gave them a checklist of questions to ask callers.

Idaho did announce they were going to appropriate 2 million dollars to deal with it. That's like $1.25 per resident. The local ICUs are already almost at capacity and it supposedly hasn't hit Idaho yet.

I had food storage long before this hit and have planned to isolate if needed. Wife says she's going to quit work and pull the kids from school once it gets here. I say just do it now then because it's coming. Us American's love to lock the barn door after the horses are already out. I hope to do it before. I don't want to be the guy on a bed in the hall being told a can't have a ventilator because my risk factors are too high.

If I was healthier i probably wouldn't be worried either but 3 doctors have told me if I get it it's going to be bad.

Bb

Fear monger, let’s see your stats on this.

If your prediction comes true, it will be due solely to containment measures being taken by our leaders.

Yes, a bunch of them are worthles POS demos. But every once in a while they are forced into actually doing something which is in the public's best interests.

You are exactly right.

Jorge, the second graphic in your post indicates 3.5% of those infected have died.

That is at least 35 times the mortality rate of "the flu".

The US loses about 100 people a day in car crashes. On average we lose about 75 people a year to being killed by lawnmowers and 160 a year who accidentally strangle themselves while masturbating. https://www.statista.com/chart/6024/causes-of-death-in-the-us/


As of this morning there has been 41 Corona related deaths

The only "stat" i stated was relative to the death rate. That has been calculated by about everyone, about everywhere. No solid number can be calculated now because forensics is the only way possible to get a real number. The problems come from both sides. Many cases, especially early are simply called flu. On the other side many mild cases are also called flu.

The important clue is also hidden in the number of extremely mild cases. A small number of viruses in one person at one time will lead to better results for the patient. A slower growth rate will allow the body to build a better immune response. Especially in the most vulnerable population.

Proof the very appropriate response is working.

More than 1/2 the deaths have come from a single nursing home in Washington State, https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-kirkland-washington-nursing-home-coronvirus-2020-3


You get a population of that age and co-morbidities and anything, even the common cold is going to have a high death toll.

A lot of it is fueled by politics, and that caused businesses and other entities to get concerned about law suits if they didn't close certain venues, etc. This has had a domino effect. The only bright side is, it may open the eyes of potential voters to see putting somebody like Biden or Bernie in the White House would be really dumb. I also hope they see which side is politicizing this "crisis".

Yeah. I can see that.

Hopefully that number stays 41 for a year, any bets. Oh and loosen that cord around your neck.

Bb

The graphic under discussion indicates world wide data. The deaths in Washington state are insignificant in that regard.

Ouch! Well played!


Still laughing!

MM,

I disagree about the mortality rate being the same if we ignore it. Recovery hinges on medical care, and if medical facilities are overwhelmed mortality rates will rise. There is no magic bullet to cure this disease, but supportive care (oxygen therapy, and etc.) are critical to recovery for any who become seriously ill. There will be facilities that run out of trained help, critical supplies and equipment.

Note the effort in China to build a "hospital" in just a few days. I don't believe that they intended to build Johns Hopkins Medical Center. I think they likely built a sheltering point where supportive care, in the form of breathing therapies and oxygen, could be administered.

I believe and hope that something similar is happening now in the U.S. We have idled military facilities that could house and support a lot of medical care IF we can populate them with trained responders and enough equipment and supplies to make a difference.
I don't care if my medical care comes from the Cub Scouts, as long as they are led by competent medical staff.

I don't think that the advent of this virus came as an attempt to bring down the current administration.
I do admit that I have reservations about everything Chinese that doesn't come from a restaurant staffed by folk who are glad to be in America.

I’m just not going to live my life controlled by fear. I don’t plan on taking excessive chances either. The media is responsible hyping the negative aspect of a mild flu, so I will not listen to them.

Trump is in the same position of those who have closed down major events. Once one cancelled they all fell in line. Right now he is backed into the corner because of the scare tactics. He only has one move. How do you know what his smart communicable disease people are telling him? They may be saying it is NBD. Yet the smart political people are saying, you best look like you are doing something. Right or wrong, you win.

I'm in the "high-risk group" just because I'm over 60. The virus doesn't scare me at all, it's all the other sh*t that's going on. The virus will go around, I'll either get it or I won't.

Those are some good graphics. Helps put things into perspective.

Nursing homes are not in the business of getting their residents well, getting the Corona virus in a nursing home is a certain death sentence.

I believe that common sense measures will prevail.

What was it? Shave your OJ, and freeze your junk?

In other threads, you claimed the closings were designed to allow the hospitals to build a new corona wing so that more people could be saved from a cold.

Here you claim the closings, which have only happened in the last few days, are saving everbody.

Which bullshit theory is the one you are you going to stick with?

Jorge's link has some very interesting data which should be viewed and considered by all the skeptics.

Look at that graphic on the top right.
Worldwide, 3.7% of those afflicted with C-19 have died. But that only counts the cases which have reached conclusion. Half of those afflicted have not recovered or died yet.

If 3.7% of unresolved cases end in mortality, that will bring the actual mortality rate world wide to over 7%. That is pretty simple, basic math.

Even at 3% mortality rate, that is as high as the Spanish flu of 1918 which is considered to have decimated the world.

Look at the chart third from the top on the left. The transmission and mortality rate is right there with the Spanish flu.

I am as skeptical as any when liberal media starts throwing schitt in front of us. But this is not "Global Warming" No one is selling carbon credits here.

C-19 is only killing 70 per day right now. 60 days ago it was killing none.

Remember when AIDS was killing zero per day. Or zero per year. Now it is listed at 2100 deaths per day world wide. After forty years of research and $Billions of dollars spent on research and treatments. The difference is, you do not catch AIDS without very intimate contact.

I will be very surprised if C-19 does not surpass AIDS as a world wide health concern.

Sure, humanity will survive it. Our nation and states will survive it. But many, many of our elderly will die prematurely. And until or unless a vaccine is discovered the face of our society may well be forever changed.

And you can not see the truth in both statements?

Study the actual data from China, and Italy, and India, and across the world. Actually look at the rate of transmission across the globe.

You have a habit of putting words in my pen...

Reread what I stated. One does not exclude the other. There is more than one valid reason to do what is being done. Some arguments require a different approach to the void.

Thank you, I was answering the same thing at the same time.

They don't exclude the other, to someone that's trying to weasel outta the fact that this whole covid thing is bullshit.

When it turns out ta be bullshit, liberals will claim it was cause of .gov savin everbody by ruinin the economy. Just more bullshit.

Your manufactured hysteria takes advantage of individuals like IS, that can't put 2 and 2 together, when it comes to statistics.

So, make a commitment.

Is this thing gonna kill outta proportion to the swine flu, or is it not?

We didn't go through this crap with the swine flu, so that's a good measuring stick.

Take a stand, or quit spreadin liberal bullshit.

Of the 80% of mild cases, what is that mortality rate?
I just think there will be many more cases where people don't even know they have it and don't get tested, that the mortality figure of 3% will be way off. If it ends up at 7% of all infected, I will be way wrong and millions of people will be dead.

Agreed. The reports I'm reading suggest a 3-4 month epidemic pattern, with the peak occurring late April to mid May. After the peak, people will be aware of the problem, but much less worried about it. Fauci's "9 months" is much longer than most epidemiologists are saying.

100 years from now they will write about it as the "The Great Cor Con"

I have researched this all quite a bit, including all "pandemics" dating back to the 1800's

here are some facts to possibly ease your mind. For starters, China only had 22 new cases as of yesterday. So where it started has completely dwindled.

Second off, there are more current people that are over it than currently have it. Of the people that did not survive, they likely either had some sort of issue that weakened their immune system. Attached is also a chart of fatality rate chances based on age, assuming you have no underlying issues.

Lastly, I spoke with a doctor yesterday and he said given the fact that there are over 1,000 people in the United States that is known to have it. Then it is likely that anywhere from 50,000-70,000 have it, and have not been tested because their symptoms are so mild it is not worth going to the doctor over. Therefore, if that many people have it, and don't know it then the fatality rate of this virus drastically drops from the 2-3% range into something much lower.

Math. Assuming more people have it than we know, that's rational. People aren't dying left and right, also rational.

Let's bump up the U.S. death toll right now to 100. Obviously that many people haven't been confirmed. But let's say confirmed and unconfirmed. Okay, and 50,000 (roughly) people have it, both confirmed and unconfirmed. The fatality rate would be.. wait for it.. .002%

Death Rate by country (each have 500 minimum known cases).

Italy - 7%
China - 4%
USA - 2%
S. Korea - 0.8%
Germany - 0.2%
France - 2%
Norway - 0.1%
Sweden - 0.1%
Denmark - 0.0%
Belgium - 0.5%
Austria - 0.1%

Again this is KNOWN cases. There are thousands walking around with it and don't know because the symptoms is are mild. Therefore the death rate is significantly lower than these numbers indicate.

Now, I'm not a doctor, just going off what he said.

Reference site:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Nope, I can not put two and two together. That must be why I ordered my entire life saving converted from stocks into cash about three weeks ago.

Some of us are just such habitual deniers that we can not accept anything we hear as facts. Some of our denials are well founded (Global Warming). Others, not so much (moon landing, Global Earth, evolution)

I would put C-19 right there with evolution. You might well be dead before you know for sure.

Now you are just being an idiot.

Ignore the media. It has nothing to do with biology, epidemiology, virology, or any other real science. The media are playing games and siding against them leaves you fighting with whom? Ignore them!

Fact: slowing the spread of the virus is critical for two primary reasons. One is to keep from swamping the facilities. Two is to reduce the infection titer so people when infected are not being slammed by huge volumes of virus. This allows them more time to build an immune response.

Fact: both reasons above will contribute to a reduced mortality rate, period.

How much difference will it make? Will that last extra death be in your town, business, or family? What is that worth? Calling out the virus does no good. Try to contest the science. And if you do not really understand statistics you might want to avoid reading anything into them.

Maybe your balls will drop some day, and you can commit to whether this corona bullshit is gonna be worse than previous "scary" flus or not.

My, aren't we clever!

Doc, I sincerely hope you are more correct than I. Even if you are exactly right, April and May are going to be very ugly. Especially to the obese American Senior Citizen with COPD and Diebetes.

Many of us probably ought to be headed to Costco and shopping for a coffin rather than TP.

The facts is, that 80% of the people that get it, ain't gonna GAS.

Another 15% will tough it out without goin to the doctor, cause they're stubborn or cheap.

So, they're not ever gonna get counted as havin corona.

The 5% left go to the doctor, cause they feel like they're gonna die.

And they get tested.

And outta that 5%, 3% are gonna die, cause they're old or sick or whatever.

Just like any other flu.

2 and 2, went over your head.

You can control your posts, but ya can't control your balls droppin.

Maybe someday.

The information provided above says it will be very similar to the Spanish Flu of 1918. As far as I know that has been the worst pandemic recorded since the dark ages. The interesting thing is that H1N1 hit us again in 2009, and it was only responsible for a little over half a million deaths world wide.

So, who knows, we might get lucky. But it is much better to be prepared for the worst and hope for the best.

I'm over 60 and have emphysema and think this is all a bunch of BS. Our trip to Hawaii next month has been postponed because the sheep are scared. I think about the flu and pneumonia everyday but I refuse to live my life scared that I might die. To me that would be a stupid way to live your life.

A fairly obvious biological warfare attack that we have trained for for years in our military.

This type warfare is in it's infancy as far as it's deployment goes but there are very valuable lessons to be learned.

A virus with no known cure from China..

g

And you have the nerve to question anyone else's math skills? Even guessing like you they will miss a lot less than you just did.

So, is it gonna be worse than the Spanish Flu, or not?

Take a stand, or quit postin crap.

Had your balls dropped, you coulda actually included a fact that refuted what I posted.

Forget corona, see a doc bout your balls.

Randolph, it does well for us to remember what the Chinese people went through and what the Chinese gov't did to contain this virus and to get to this point. The residents of Wuhan have been locked inside their houses for weeks now. The region was quarantined and ringed by armed military units. Do you not believe that any person attempting to escape quarantine was shot?

We are not able to enact such control measures in this nation. And I would not wish to live here if we could. Some things are worse than even 10% of a nations population succumbing to a disease. And C-19 will not kill anywhere near 10% of Americans.

Okay DUMFUG, see if you are smart enough to understand this: It has the potential to be every bit as lethal world wide as H1N1 of 1918.

But with luck and proper control measures we may be able to contain it to lethality levels of H1N1 of 2009.

The American economy should be wrecked because it allegedly has the "potential" to kill as many people as a normal flu season?

It has the potential to do jack shat, but due to gullible morons being manipulated by the ministry of propaganda, it appears to be much more serious.

You're doin your part, but like sh itka deer, you got no balls.

Is it gonna be worse, or not?

Gettin a liberal ta take a stand's like tryin ta pick up mercury with tweezers.

This is spot on!

This isn't difficult to understand. It's entirely politically motivated and coordinated and no... it didn't require hundreds of conspirators planning and colluding together, it didn't require millionaires and billionaires agreeing to tank the market at their own cost, it didn't require the Chinese to manufacture and release a biological agent. It didn't require anything kooky.

The media, since several months before Trump was elected, has grabbed hold of everything and anything they think will take Trump out. They have literally thrown turd after turd at the wall hoping one will stick, but none has. To name just a few we've seen.... Access Hollywood, Stormy Daniels, Steele dossier / Russia collusion, and the Ukraine quid pro quo (for which they impeached him). All of those were just as bogus as this nonsense and they weren't enough to separate Trump from his base.

Clearly, the media has repeatedly demonstrated that they can pull something like this off. They don't need a vast left wing, big room full of conspirators to make it work. They have a handful of influential leaders running their companies, who HATE Trump and are happy to tacitly work together against him. This all started with that Chinese commie doctor who went public with his dire and dramatic warning video. I guarantee a few in the media saw that as another turd to toss against the wall to see if it'd stick... and it has to an extent.

There are many left wing leaders on record saying they'd be happy to see the economy tank if it'd take Trump out. My hope is people will see what is happening and begin to backlash against it... this is hurting real people.

I watched most of the address.
Discussion centered on rolling out testing and partnering with private industry to speed this.
Short of loosening restrictions and giving healthcare more latitude I heard nothing of substance about a plan to manage the positive cases. Telemedicine offers nothing substantive in this instance.
Frankly in an area with high disease prevalence and negative flu a/b swab a person with consistent symptoms, lower respiratory symptoms and/or evolving interstitial pneumonia on chest films is presumed to have COVID. Once positives/presumptive positives are identified they should be isolated and triaged to care. We as a country can bring great resources to bear for a smaller number of patients but do not have capacity to care for mass casualties in the present framework.Community hospitals will be immediately overwhelmed.
There should be a mobilization to prepare local arenas, stadiums, bus depots etc for treatment of large numbers of people and forced quarantine by National Guard or the like. Contact tracing will be expected. Domestic travel should be curtailed. Retired physicians, nurses, EMS should be identified/self identify to assist in care as the existing force will need support. Ventilators need to be procured. PPE needs to be made available.
Do I think this pandemic will amount to a large number of deaths in the US? Hopefully not but too early to say and the consequences of underestimating this are large. Do I think the left is exploiting this? Yes, absolutely. I do think ginning up public fear is having unintended but helpful benefit in terms of causing people to hold off on travel. Do we need to reclaim manufacture of meds and medical equipment in this country? Yes as a matter of national security. If not this, then only a matter of time until we are confronted with legitimate test of our capabilities.
I write this as a staunch Trump supporter and physician.

So, take alla your own money, and start preparin these locations.

Or, you could open your own privately funded place ta take care of the millions that will be knockin down your door.

Nobody's stoppin ya.

There is quite a bit I don't know about covid-19 and that bothers me. I don't know just how contagious it is and I don't know just how bad the effects might be if one catches it. I don't know if the virus is likely to run it's course and be gone or if it will be an ongoing issue. I don't know if there will be any long term effects on recovered patients. In short, I don't know if I should try to avoid the virus completely or just count on catching it and deal with the outcome.
There are some things about the covid-19 virus of which I'm quite certain. I'm quite certain Donald Trump's actions have been appropriate although I think he has made some misstatements along the way. I'm also quite certain the Barrack Obama had nothing whatsoever to do with the covid-19 virus. Whether or not he would have handled the issue today any better or any worse is something we can't know. As it is, we have a situation which will have some ramifications. I'm quite certain the media is doing what they can to keep the drama quotient as high as possible. I don't know whether or not they are being manipulated by the Dems but I do believe they are , and always have been, left leaning so they might as well be.
I'm over 70, healthy in all respects, and live in a semi remote area. My nearest town is ten miles, nearest supermarket is thirty miles, and my nearest neighbor is 3/4 mile away. I probably have as good a chance of total avoidance as anyone. If I am infected, I have no reason to think I'm as likely to be OK as most 40 year olds.
One thing this outbreak has shown us is that our social structure is fragile and it doesn't take much to cause near-panic. It's a bit of a wake-up call. GD

strange coincidences ?

My take is, oh well, I am not going to try to expose myself but not going stop living either.

If it gets me and I die it was nice knowing you all,

C-ya

Yeah, I was afraid you were not smart enough to understand. Calling me a liberal is the biggest indicator of your ignorance.

Here is a link to a discussion which might shed some light into the recesses of your mind. The CDC says this will all be over within three or four months. Well of course it will, by their numbers for the rate of infection, every man woman and child in the USA will have contracted C-19 within four months.
https://www.24hourcampfire.com/ubbt...-strategic-medicine-reserve#Post14659900

Bogus... years are not all correct...

Some facts, aren't.

yeah well, Nostradumbass predicted a lot of things after the fact too but never sees anything coming.

Why weren't we informed of this prior?

Just curious, Any people on this thread have any medical background whatsoever?

Ok, liberal.

You've taken the stand that it's the biggest killer since cancer.

You posted the link in support.

Will everbody be infected, or not?

Or do you just wanna feel good bout tryin ta stop it, while increasing the size of .gov?

Not only are you stupid. You are a lying sack of schitt. I already explained that I was far from liberal. I never asked for any increase in gov't. I never made any comparison to Cancer.

And absolutely YES, everyone in this nation will contract C-19 within the next four months. (with the exception of a few hermits who avoid all social contact).

Everybody WILL be infected. At least 1 out of 100 will die. 10 out of 100 in OUR demographic will die.

Those are my firm beliefs and prognostications. The data is available from all over the world to support this.

I stayed in a holiday inn express several times, does that count?

Now we're gettin somewhere.

1 outta 100 will die.

350 million in the US.

Divided by 100 = 3.5 million dead from corona, in the US.

Your prediction.

Could work out, if alla the ones that die is liberals like you.

Millions have it right now. This is a very infectious virus, so when you hear there are people who are in the hospital with positive tests, assume the walking around rate of the virus is 100-10000x fold.

I remember daily phone calls with public health departments during 09/10 swine flu. 50-70 million infected, 20K dead with a percentage of those being children and not a single thing got canceled.

Look, 20k people in a country of 320+ million shouldn't shut us down. Otherwise, every year, during virus season, we are going to have to shut the country down. That may sound harsh but it's just how it works.

This hysteria doesn't make any sense and is being fueled by individuals or groups who have bad motives.

Current deaths are put at 50,

But you are certain it will peak at over 3 million?




Spanish flu killed near 700,000 Americans out of
a population of 103 million... (0.67%)

If we apply 1918 death rate to the current
population, it would amount to 2.2 million vs
your 3+million for C19.

ie: you are claiming C19 death rate (@1% )
will be at least 50% higher than 1918 (0.67%)

When the doctors start sounding like nurses you know it is bullsheet.

no , it'll be no where close, book it!

Arguments to authority are valueless...

All the data from around the world says higher than 1% lethality.

I sure hope America can do much better than that. And with good luck, good planning, proper modification of our behavior, and cooperation from the public, we should do better than that.

But people who deny it is an issue, and those who refuse to self quarantine after knowledge of exposure continue to exacerbate the situation. The former are true enemies of the state. The latter are traitors.

Tag

going on 1%, In which month will we see the US
death toll reach 3.3 million?

Do you actually believe that every person to get C19 was tested, and tested positive?

And when do you see the death toll in China reaching 14 million?

Caught a part of the Dana Loesch (sp) show this eve. Replay on talk radio.

She gave some stats from a Italian medical study. I can’t google it up.

By age group. 90yr + was 20%,.
my age bracket. Say 30-50 ( don’t remember for sure ) was .4%.

80% was all cases was 60yr or older

Italy would have to reach 600,000 dead
in order to count as 1% of population.

They are almost there with only 599,000 to go...

Deliberately obtuse?

Nobody said 1% of population. The stats are 1% to 3% of afflicted.

At this point, only a small percentage of the total population of Italy or America has been exposed to the virus. Through quarantine only a small percentage of China's population has been exposed to C-19.

China admits to 3000 fatalities. And they used armed military to enforce quarantine. China severely limited exposure through means unavailable (Thank God) in the free world.

Those epidemiology studies are full of the problems of most epidemiologic studies. Lots of assumptions. The lethality rate will be much less than 1%. Heck less than 5K dead globally, and the infectivity of this yearly strain suggests many more have it than estimated. This isn't typically a bump in our annual viral season.

Y'all calm down.

How many people die while mowing the lawn and masturbating?

I believe that percentage is of confirmed cases.

I believe there are far more folks who only get mild symptoms and never see a doc.

Mowing the lawn, masturbating with a cord around their neck, while having the Coronavirus while drunk and high on Crystal?

Hard to say since Sampling error usually attributes those solely to being high in crystal

Riding or push mower?

Riding mower all the way, the neck cord tends to get tangled up when you use a push mower

You clearly stated all Americans will get C19
and at least 1% will die.

so the question stands:
When can we expect to see 3.3 million (or more)
dead Americans?

Haha! Jeebus.....

It's one of those things that is impossible to pin down. About all we have is speculation.

2017 we had 2.8 million deaths in the US, per the CDC. That works out to over 2700 per day.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

If 3.3 million die of this bug, it will likely be spread out over a year or so, with a spike somewhere along the way.....just my speculations.

I'm going to significantly disagree with the timeframe. And to some extent the actual numbers of infected.

Figure the Chinese Communist Party has fudged the number of cases by a large factor. As well, figure a large number of cases went undiagnosed. Then say the true number of people that have contracted the disease in China is 1M as opposed to only 80k-ish. That's a 12X difference. But that still means only .07% of the Chinese population has had the disease. Yes, that is only 7 hundredths of a percent. If the USA has the same percentage that become infected, then only 235K cases in the USA. Of which, let's say half would go undiagnosed as they are so mild. Of the remainder, let's use the Diamond Princess as a guide and call mortality rate 1%. That's 1175 deaths within 4 months. 80 or so percent of those being over the age of 60.

Now, down the road 10 years or so, it wouldn't surprise me to see Covid-19 behave in a manner similar to the seasonal flu. The number of active cases being cyclical. But much more deadly than influenza for the elderly or immunocompromised. Who knows, without a good vaccination program, living beyond 75 might be a stretch.

Not trying to spread panic here, but it bears some thought.

Right now it's hard to say how this will play out, if we are lucky the numbers will end up on the low end.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/487489-worst-case-coronavirus-models-show-massive-us-toll

The fact is that The United States is being shut down because 1500-1600 people out of 300million + have come down with the flu.

Yesterday I was in a hospital getting a scheduled colonoscopy. Listening to the doctors and nurses making fun of how stupid people are was hilarious. Everyone said wash your hands and don’t touch until you do and you will be fine.

People are so stupid it’s laughable. People who live there life in fear are even more laughable and are basically half dead anyway. Good luck with all the doomsday crap. I will continue to live my life as I always have and commend others doing the same.

Time to make some coffee. You all have a blessed day.

My take on all of this bullchit. Is there will be a wild Halloween up and coming with toilet paper shrewd all over the country. Kids will have a wild night. The country should be ashamed of themselves. What the hell are they going to do when there is a true national emergency.

The next opportunity to become a billionaire. Is constructing safe places!! LMFAO




Take care, Willie

Sounds like the government is going to get a huge break on Social Security payments they won't have to make. Old recipients dying, young people being able to move up into higher paying jobs recently vacated. Some good comes even with otherwise bad things.

RickyD, your quote "Don't quit living because you're afraid of dying" is pure gold.

That's signature material right there.

Do any of you know anyone personally who has or had Covid-19? Does anyone you know personally know someone who has had it? Just curious.

Infection rate= number in the population that Sero converts. I.E. had the pathogen replicate in their body.

Morbidity rate= number in the population that shows signs of disease.

Mortality rate= number in the population that dies from the pathogen

Case fatality rate= the percentage of identified morbidity cases that perish.

People confuse case fatally rate with mortality rate. Often to suit their political views. IMO

There are so far 250 variants of covid 19 identified.(source CNBC)

The variants that go undetected as in do not present morbidity ( disease signs) will spread much faster. Hopefully these less virulent strains will offer cross protection and some level of acquired immunity to the entire covid 19 family.

Obviously the mortality rate is much lower than is being touted. I bet it's really about .02 %

But because it's a novel ( new pathogen) those who are weakened for what ever reason are highly susceptible to having a bad outcome if infected. So be careful, and think of others and the weak and infirm with your behavior.

That's total deaths, not just deaths from the flu.

From your link:

Number of deaths for leading causes of death:

Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672

Idaho Poofter's got a ways ta go, ta reach his goal.

Yes, I understood it was total death from all causes.

It seems Dr Fauci thinks this one is about 10 times more fatal than the typical flu, that would roughly calculate to about 556,000 deaths if the infection rate is similar.

The most extensive testing is in s Korea. They probably more than any body know exactly how many are infected, and how many have died. What's their death rate?

0.77% in South Korea.

Zero deaths under the age of 30.
One between 30 and 39.
One in their 40's.

Over 80: 7.2%


https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rates-by-age-south-korea

Case mortality?

Or mortality rate?

CNBC last week reported a postulated mortality rate of .02 % Because minor and a symptomatic cases are not in the data base. It was 2% case fatality rate I believe.

I anticipate these to get lower over time as the covid 19 becomes more " host friendly".

Also treatment should improve as we gain clinical expierence. So recovery rates should improve. IMO

So far there are two known strains. The newer one, which best I can tell originated in Seattle, has a lower mortality rate.

And we will have a vaccine for it in next years flu shot, if not before.

The way some of you are quoting the stats is like shooting one shot in a new rifle, extrapolating that out to a three shot group, and proclaiming you have a sub moa rifle.

I am not so concerned with the virus, as I am if a quarantine occurs, and the supply chain is shut down for a while. That Will strike the urban areas hard, and those who have nothing if the trucks don't run. I live in the sticks, we are always prepared better than most.