I'm working on a plan B for elk season. We put in for a rifle unit that typically requires more points than we have. Plan B is OTC either-sex archery. I'm personally familiar with the success rates (or lack there of) of elk archery seasons. I've drawn on several and have yet to put one in the freezer. The question is how accurate are the stats on percent success as posted by the Parks and Wildlife? I've gotten the wildlife robo calls about our hunt and don't remember following up. I'm sure that happens a lot especially when people are successful and they repeatedly hunt that unit. Oops forgot to call back. There are units with consistent single digit success rates that I know have decent elk herds. I get it, just because there are elk there doesn't mean killing them is guaranteed. Seems like some of the success rates don't add up.

I have never found them to be very accurate. I grew up in CO and dont know anyone that ever said they took an animal on a survey since they didnt want to let others know an area is good. Consider that for a moment on a voluntary survey. The only things I got that were documented were sheep and goat because they have to be checked in person at a DOW station. I also shot 2 bear in CO but that was before it was mandatory to get them checked like it is now.

Awhile back I did a post on the accuracy (or lack of)of their herd counts and some of the well known posters here really dinged me on it so I won't say much.

Personally I wouldn't believe anything they put out except maybe the draw statistics. Those are pretty much taken right out of their computer.Everything else, they take some limited survey and then let their computers do the modeling for the results.

I don't hunt a lot of units, but the ones I have generally have not agreed with their figures

Not only have I been removed from the high country for too long, the older I get, the less I know about anything! When I was working for outfitters the success rate was always swollen , imo, as nobody wished to suck as a guide or outfitter. The outfitters were highly regulated , mostly by the Forest Service, then DOW. The outfitters I worked for kept very accurate log books, so over a decade a pretty fair idea of success rates could be garnished for guided, economy and drop camp hunts! IMHO! I kept a log book of all my hunts back then as well, and my personal success rates from all the camps I worked , economy , guided and drop camps was less than 20 percent. I believe much of the DOW statistics back then may have used some of this intelligence!

Moose sheep and goat is gonna be pretty much right on the money as it is highly regulated and people don't want to pay the penalty if they were to get caught not reporting. Some chronic liars will lie but there is no reason to, in all reality you will not draw until every animal you saw is dead of natural causes.

Deer and elk # are just plain delusional... MAYBE slightly more accurate than the population counts which are just lies to the point of being propaganda #'s.

One thing is true though you can put a good elk hunter in a bad unit/season and he will fill his freezer pretty much every year after he has a bit of time to learn it. And if he is a good elk hunter he will know to spend the time to know it very quickly, else he isn't a good elk hunter to begin with.

I look at the success rate numbers as a simple data point in comparison to other units and then i look at the numbers of a given unit over time. I have no idea if the numbers are accurate, i suspect they are not. But, trends over time are useful if that makes sense.

With respect to herd counts. CPW stopped by our camp last year. My uncle, (and the rest of my family) has hunted the exact same place every single year since 1974, complained that there aren't nearly the elk there were 20 years ago...among other issues. CPW said "their counts indicate the numbers are significantly up for this unit" and proceeded to actually argue that he was mistaken. CPW didn't want to hear what 46 years of eyes on the ground said, they go by winter herd counts of elk that winter 40+ miles away. So, no, herd counts interpolated to unit population are not accurate, just a little better than a SWAG.

CPW is a business that sells access to their personal cash crop. As long as people pay for that access, CPW will be happy. The numbers, your personal experience, crop quality, perception, etc only figure into the equation in so much as their ability to generate revenue. DOW had a hunter oriented culture (at least up to 15-20 years ago)...CPW has a money centric culture, but i digress.

I think you could use the numbers for comparison when looking at hunts/units for prospective hunts. More than likely the same relative modeling bias will be in most units. Most statistics are lies and damned lies. Last year, the success rate among hunters on the ranch was 7%. Usually better than 50%. When I say 50%, I mean half the hunters got an elk they had a license for. Some of the hunters kill an elk nearly every season and others are hard luck cases. My long term success rate in that unit has been 57% , so it can vary widely year to year. Best of luck to you!

PS: Some years the elk show up earlier or later and we are SOL. Last year 2nd and 3rd Seasons were a bust at our spot, but they were there en masse during 4th season. Hunter success and herd counts are not on the same curve, I think.

Not to be a pessimist BUT, western states F&G need hunter dollars to pay their wages, etc (and to reintroduce wolves). I have dug into several states while a resident there and IMHO there may be an overstatement on both big game populations and harvest success. Again, just my humble opinion.

Appreciate the input everyone, similar to what I was thinking. Thank you. I do know herd sizes do not translate to success per se. In defense of the Parks and Wildlife we've seen less than 10 elk in our prime hunting areas, then drove to private land a few evenings to glass and saw hundreds. Literally hundreds. So if PW said the elk are in the unit, they wouldn't be incorrect, just not a huntable part of the unit. The trend I've seen over the last decade is that elk are moving to private grounds the first signs of hunting pressure. Scouting now, I actually look for prime habitat that borders private land.

Drive up north of Gunnison, Colorado along Ohio Creek to the Caselton Ranch.About 20miles. Starting 1st rifle you will see maybe 500 elk there.However, there are suppose to be 4-5000 in unit 54. Where the heck are the remainder. I can' hunt in any more,but the last 4 years I did, I saw maybe 3-4 elk the entire hunt. The years preceding CPW issuing OTC cow tags and then OtC Bull tags.I had no problem killing an elk every year

I usually do two elk hunts each year. Very few years have I ever been surveyed about success on elk.

Elk have become educated. They pass the learned behavior down to their offspring. This phenomenon happens when the herds figure out sanctuary lands. So the Friday before the first archery season, elk hear doors slamming, tent stakes being driven, and worst of all ATV's being run up and down the forest roads. The lead cows gather the herd and take them down onto the big ranch, where things are quiet and they are hunted less. Nearer to the big urban areas, they seek sanctuary in town on the golf courses and lawns. There was a study done on the Flat Tops with radio or satellite collared elk proving that they moved out the first weekend of archery...and it seems more ATV related than just camping in general.

The herd doesn't need to learn the safe areas. Only the lead cow needs to know that and she got her job by being a smart old bitch.

Yep,I have sat on mountain sides a few days before season opens when I hear all the backpackers,pack strings,ATVs moving into the area setting up camps and see the elk go up over the divide into the next drainage and probably further

Which is weird because I get an survey every year for every hunt that I had a tag for. No rhyme or reason to their method.

Seems like Colorado likes to use the 10% success number across the board but when you consider the private land success levels in any given unit I think that’s the back bone of that 10%. I have hunted three falls now, 2 muzzleloader and 1 archery all in Sept. I have never had an opportunity to shoot any elk, but what’s more discouraging is that it seems to be the consensus of most hunters I talk to. I have yet to see antlers or meat in any camp in that 3 years either. Sure I see elk all over Colorado while out and about recreating throughout the year , mostly on private land but I’ll be damned if I see them in public. I’ve pretty much given up on elk hunting Colorado going into my 4th season here, sure I may screw around , but nothing serious or well planned or too far from home. I do plan to draw a cow tag in Utah this year so hopefully I’ll have some meat in the freezer at some point.

I agree. The accuracy of the herd counts is based on modeling, and I think the method results in posted counts that are 5 to 10 years earlier than what is on the ground. They will base leftover tag allotments on inputs from sportsmen, ranchers, farmers, chambers of commerce, and other entities having monetary interests in addition to biologists. 5 or 10 years after antelope(for example) have been exterminated from a particular range, they will once again limit tag numbers.

Me and a group of friends have hunted the same area since around 2010. The past 4 seasons we saw fewer and fewer game animals; elk and mule deer. In ‘19 and ‘20, we saw VERY few game animals. I have filled out the game survey each season and personally spoken with the area wildlife biologist a couple of times. I have seen no change in the number of permits offered for the area we hunt.

I wok right along I-70 near Evergreen This year a herd of elk used the horse pasture almost exclusively adjacent to the interstate to hang out during the season Season ended and they were gone till recently with they are circulating through every 3-4 weeks They literally hung out within throwing distance of the school People were in our parking lot to take pictures at close range Of course no hunting anywhere near the horse pasture, they are smart

I used to get the survey for every hunt I participated in. I wouldn't call it science. Did you hunt in Unit___? Did you hunt any other Unit? How many days did you hunt? Did you harvest an ____on your hunt? To what level did you feel crowded or uncrowded during your hunt? Were you satisfied with the experience?
Now for Moose and other hard to draw hunts, it is a different story...and it shows in the number of animals on the ground. In twenty years Moose went from rare (in most of the state) to being a constant pest in traditional elk habitats while elk are hard to find.

My experience is 10% do 90% of the killing.
I never worried about the other 90%

The herd size numbers are nonsense and have been for a long time. Everytime CPW is challenged to actually find the number of elk they claim exist based on their "models", they are forced to cut their claim by a factor of 2 or more. Turns out you can't shoot modeled elk, only actual elk.

I suspect the hunt success numbers are dubious for draw tags, and complete garbage for OTC tags.

We need to eliminate OTC tags, base tag numbers on reliably measured herd sizes, and put bounties on coyotes and bears if we ever want to see decent public land elk hunting again. It'll never happen.

Let me help you put success rates into a context that is easier to understand.... and, any one reading this... feel free to respond with your own numbers....

Lets say that last year... the DOW released 100 bull tags for a given area, for a given season for elk.... and they report that 25 bull tags were filled with branch antlers bulls for a 25% success rate, for that season...,

You might read that and think.... Ya, I can hunt that tag and have a 25% chance of filling my tag. And you would be wrong.... let's do the math....

The DOW released 100 bull tags....

3 tag holders never showed up
7 tag holders showed up, but never sobered up long enough to leave camp...
16 tag holders came well equipped with campers and $3000 rifles that shoot 900 yards... but road hunted the whole week, and their ass never left the seat of their King Ranch pickup...
21 tag holders pulled trailers full of four wheelers and side by sides and set up camp and drove all over hell and gone and to glassing spots over and over all week...
27 tag holders got up early the first two days... were back at camp by noon, and then never left camp after that... and pulled stakes on the afternoon of day 4...

25 tag holders, showed up a little early... scouted just a bit...previously hunted the same area... rolled out of the sac at 315am no matter how sore he was... had really good boots and left early every morning, hiking in the dark... stayed out all day... payed extra attention to his sent controle and wind direction, hiked back to camp in the dark, and killed a average bull after 3-4 days of effort.

1 tag holder, did the same as the previous 25 successful tag holders... saw an average bull in rifle range... but passed on it hoping for a bigger bull... but went the whole week with out connecting with a bigger bull, and end up eating that tag... and was just as happy as the 25 successful hunters...

The entire wildlife in Colorado is now politically controlled and has been for several years.Liberals have taken over the state government and Polis's CPW commission is filled with his appointees. Even a wolf lover. Most have no bearing or experience with wildlife and the same liberals through out Colorado get enough signatures on the voter initiatives to get it on a ballet and then get it passed.

Mikieb,
Your analysis is very humorous and pretty close to the truth! LOL!

Saddlesore,
You hit the nail on the head. One look at the bios of the CPW Commission confirms your observation. I listened to the audio of a couple of commission meetings and both times were a clown show. Lord help us.

Happy Trails

Born and raised in N.W. Colorado, killed a lot of Elk and Mule deer in N.W, Colorado, i Sold out my land in Colorado in 1986, and have no regrets.when John Denver showed up singing Rocky Mountain High, some one should have shot the sorry Bastard . Rio7

Actually it's very far from the truth. More like a 15% success rate.

Of those, 13 hunters shot an elk off their back deck or having paid a trespass fee on private land. They all slapped eachother on the back about what great hunters they were, not at all like those "road hunters" out on the public land.

Of the remaining 86, they hunted on public land. 1 guy poached an elk on private land but thought it was public because he doesn't know how to work a GPS. The remaining 85 hunted one elk and it doesn't really matter what they did. Someone killed it.

Then the CPW came by and said there were 3,570.5 elk because a computer in Denver told them it was true.

---->Actually it's very far from the truth. More like a 15% success rate.

I was just using the 25% for easy math... but you get my point....

The old saying... 90% of the elk are killed by 10% of the hunters is true.

And private land is the #1 factor determining who's in which group.

Yes, there are hunters that succeed on public land, but the rate is VERY VERY low. How low, CPW doesn't want to say...

LB,
Not sure your analysis is any better than Mikieb. His was way funnier! LOL!
Happy Trails

It takes a couple of years to get to know an area but if nobody is killing elk there you should move on & start the process in a different place. I have buddies who hunted 10 years killed 2 elk in their spot. Got tired of hearing about me killing one every year & moved to the adjacent zone now they have one or more opportunities just about every season. Not talking about hard charging guys - very average effort & they all do better than 20%.

Id think if the cpw published the otc, un-guided, public land, bull elk success rate, they would take one helluva pay cut very quickly!

But if you work hard and are smart it can be 100%. I'm a slacker and have 33 Bulls and 13 cows over a 35 year run of elk hunting. Many gobs of passes mixed in there too, either cause the freezer was already full or looking for "the big one".

The above break down of the 100 tags was pretty good writing! Only funny cause it is true.

Ditto. I have a buddy who has set up elk camp and hunted the same place during late archery season for 21 years and he, his brother and other hunting buddy have killed exactly 1 elk and that was 19 years ago. I think I’d burn the tent in place and move on! What’s that? 1.5% success rate?

I have listened to guys yap about deer and elk camp, you can tell from what they’re saying, it isn’t a hunt they’re going on, but, a social event to get away from their wives.

#NoMeatEverHanging

Laffin

🦫

Yep, have had a few buddy’s guide in Idaho and Montana, they get to fill a buncha tags annually as most clients wanna snort coke and drink the whole trip… then the locales that make camp and drink the whole season, and claim folks that kill bulls every year are cheating or poaching… never gets old, the excuses… haha

The pal I referred to above is a pretty serious hunter. We goose hunt all season long, but I don’t go to archery elk camp with him. Too low probability of opportunity.

We have had a few hunters drift in and out of our elk hunting bunch that just want to drink more and hunt less. We help them make their decision to hunt elsewhere the next season. I’ll take a drink with the best of them, but I have never let boozing interfere with my hunt. Some douche bags never let hunting interfere with eating and drinking! LOL!

Yep. My group has changed for similar reasons. If you are hunting to close the bar & bring some honky tonk special back to camp - that isn’t what I’m interested in having for a hunting partner.

Hunt hard all day eat dinner have a drink & collapse to get ready for the morning. Help haul when other guys are successful even if you haven’t filled a tag yet - hunt the AM before hauling out your first load. Drag your rifle along to add to the work if you like but help.

Hunt or drink!

Keep them separate, and you'll enjoy your hunting a lot more!

I'm not saying, not to relax in the evening, with a beverage, after the work gets done!

I'm agreeing with,specneeds!

This Coloradan will be filling his elk tag in Utah this year, piss on Colorado!

The educated elk is way too true. We csmped in Rocky mtn. Park west side once at the start of muzzle loading ( not hunting). Saturday morning around 60 cows walked through the grounds. So they were moving into the safe area.

As for CPW, other than wanting more money I do not believe anything they say

I sware ! the whole bloody elk herd in Colorado is on CWP mailing list.... They read the regs... and mark their calendars...