Hey Woody- thanks for starting this thread. Lots of interesting reading. Whether the warming trend is a brief anomaly or longer-lasting true climate change, it certainly seems to be having several effects that may- I repeat- may- be ganging up on the caribou populations in recent years.
I did note some discrepancies- for example - a 2 day difference in leafing out of bushes over several decades - if similarly reflected in other forage species - doesn't seem enough to matter on the calving grounds per your original allegation. Certainly it's not enough by itself.
The alleged increase in insect activity has possibilities- not in numbers per se, but in length of "bug season", perhaps, for obvious foraging time/weight-gain reasons.
I found it significant on the reverse line that caribou foraging has been found to retard the northward expansion/introduction of more woody, non-forage plants.
I'll stipulatethat drier weather may well be leading to more fires, destroying winter range for caribou. Seems probable. On the other hand, it should be providing more winter range for moose and some other species - squirrels, hares, grouse, etc.
Warmer seasons appear to be dumping more and wetter snow/rain/ice at times on many areas, leading to more difficult foraging and exposure scenarios, but possibly offset some by earlier dates of snow free ground from spring melting and the greening up of more succulent/nutritious forage. Willow leaves, sedges, mushrooms and other caribou goodies. Which I suppose could lead back into supporting your original point. Or not. Oh what a tangled web we weave.....
Internet articles(my "research") written for public consumption (basically summaries, which may have been cherry picked) without referencing back to the hard data is a chancy business at best.
One thing is for certain - there is no "Balance of Nature" - and never has been. Stability of local environments/situations may last for a time, but "stuff" is always fluctuating to a larger or smaller extent.
Remember- extinction over time is the rule - survival of a species the exception.
So I'm going Alfred E. Neuman...."What - me worry?"
