Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire If the GOP Wins- Hyperinflation?

I think it will work out fine without hyper inflation. If you in incentivize repatriation of the offshore profits while using tariffs on imports to incentivize building here I think the liquidity will be absorbed as investments in productivity here which will offset inflationary pressure. The Chinese are already slowing and would most likely fall into deep recession with tariffs so commodity prices would also offset. In fact a bunch of chitty countries would struggle without free access to the U.S. market. The shrinking labor market will push labor up some but much of the returning manufacturing would be roboticized which would help the labor pool adjust to the roboticized manufacturing without huge unemployment.

Very good thread , and noone called anyone a azzhat , , , , yet. If we got rid of illegals and can get people working we will be fine. The young blacks and minorities will have get up and go to work. We could cut welfare to get them off the couch. There is work out there but noone wants to do it.

JFC! You are un-believeable! Worry about this crap after he's elected! According to you it'll be Hitlery anyway so what are you worried about?

This is the key. We have the lowest labor force participation rate in modern times yet the Obama says we need mexicans to do the work americans don't want to do. The reason they don't want to do it is because they're making twice as much off of welfare as they would picking lettuce in a field.

Welfare reform and immigration reform go hand in hand. Just kicking the mexicans out won't get people to do these jobs, you've got to cut the handouts so they don't make more money at home screwing and smoking dope than they do working.

That's one of the reasons why I think it could be inflationary because with a smaller pool of labor, employers would naturally have to pay a little more to get people to do those jobs.

There are three policies that the Republican candidates have been running on that I see as potentially causing at least a rise in inflation if not worse. To me, this is inevitable, and has been in the works for years of monetary manipulation by the FED. But these election cycle policies may be the spark and the GOP would certainly get the blame by the progressive media and Democrats, whether deserved or not.

Illegal immigration
Either Trump or Cruz would be harder on immigration than anyone we have seen- ever. Not saying this is a bad thing in general, but if we see people deported in any mass and we see a drop off in new people coming in, two things will happen: 1. The work force will shrink and 2. The average salary numbers will rise. Both of those things are strongly inflationary.

Repatriation of corporate assets
Corporations have trillions parked out of the country to avoid tax burdens. Both Trump and Cruz have spoken about offering at least a reduced temporary tax rate to bring a lot of those assets back into the country. That money would then become liquidity in the system and be inflationary. You can simply introduce a trillion dollars into the money supply aggregates without inflation.

Foreign Trade Deals
Trump has spoken about renegotiating trade or outright tariffs to decrease the number of imports or raise the cost of buying imports. Cruz' tax plan has a provision to disproportionately tax imports vs exports. A significant percentage of people in this country shop in places like Walmart or Target because they simply can't afford other stores. And those stores keep their product prices down by importing. These policies would increase product cost and cause inflation.

Like I said, there are arguments for all three of these policies. But if these are implemented, especially if done concurrently, we could see a significant increase in inflation. The other drawback of inflation is that the primary weapon against inflation, from a monetary standpoint, is to raise interest rates. The combination of inflation and higher interest rates could be quite damaging to the economy. If nothing is done to improve GDP to counteract this effect, things could get ugly fast.

I imagine you are ignoring the jobs that would create, the earning it would create for corporate American, the effect those increased earning would have on the market, and the wealth of all who own stock.

Hyperinflation does not equal "azzload of inflation". It means all confidence in the currency has collapsed. If/when it comes, it won't be one policy choice or party that brings it on, it will be a combination of all the wrong things at the wrong time. Despite how hard we're trying, we're still the cleanest dirty shirt.

If the Dems win and push the $15 Minimum Wage guess what you're gonna see? That's right, hyperinflation. Wages will go up across the board thus driving prices up across the board.

Not ignoring those things at all. Full employment is inflationary. Rising stock markets are inflationary. Increased wealth is inflationary. Like I said about 3 times now, this is not to say we don't want more jobs or more prosperity, just that several of these things happening concurrently could cause inflation. Take it for what it's worth but if we take the White House, I will seriously consider some hard assets.