Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Call the Bottom on the Market

I say DOW 22,800.

There's a guess.

20,800 all of the 2017 gains.

So you are saying all of the Trump Bump?

I am terrible at guessing. I once said gasoline would NEVER get to 40 cents per gallon in the Houston area. I missed it by a mile. (we were paying 21 to 28 cents back then.)

The Trump Train will take a break, consolidate gains, build up steam, and then take off again.

This is simply a breather.

This an attempt to derail the trump train. The Russian thing was BS so this is next. It started with a few big players then everyone else jumped in out of fear.
Today will be the low. Everyone will have time to sit and think over the weekend and realize the profits they can make if they buy this low. I'm looking at a number of stocks that I will buy today. Our economy is doing too good for things to not recover and continue upward.

it will close HIGHER today and take off next week. BUY today at any weakness

Buy, buy, buy

I know nothing about investing. We have a guy who does that for my wife's money.

But I watch the market with some curiosity. One thing I've noticed over the years is that much more often than not, the DOW drops on Thursday and rises on Friday. I have no idea why; it just does.

Well, it sure did drop yesterday, and it is already moving up today only being open a few minutes. We'll see.

I moved my money to a safe fund last week. I am going to keep it there until this turmoil settles then move it back to an aggressive fund and let it ride back up. At that point I am going to move it to a safe fund and leave it there 'til I retire. The market is fickle and unpredictable. It reacts for reasons that defy explanation. The experts are always quick to try to explain the rises and falls, but if they were true experts they would have seen it coming. NOBODY saw this coming when it did. We all thought the market would correct at some point. But this happened at the same time we just got a lot of great economic news including a fantastic January jobs report and GDP figures of 5+%.

actually the market is somewhat predictable, more so the further you go out rather than day to day. it generally reacts to valid points. And people did see it coming, the last few days.
but people that have the ability in this area generally don't publish their stuff for free. They get paid for it.
Cramer had it pretty right in his rant yesterday.

a general time honored thought is as you get closer to retirement and age, you should be moving more and more to safe rates of return, you don't have the time to wait out the boo boos.

What is a safe fund?

Ron, my brother-in-law is a hedge fund manager. He is VERY good at understanding the market. I haven't talked to him about the recent activity, but I am willing to bet he did not see it coming the way it did. It's easy for anyone to know a rapidly rising market will correct. When and why is what confounds the experts. Several years ago he went long on Twitter just knowing it was about to break out. A year and a half ago when the words Trump and Twitter were mentioned on a national stage multiple times each day and the number of Twitter users started soaring, you'd have thought Twitter would have turned a profit. Yesterday it was revealed that Twitter had turned its first quarterly profit and it wasn't much to gloat over. He thought Twitter was going to deliver much sooner than it did and by all accounts it should have.

I guess you are right in that the market as a whole is generally predictable. We knew this correction was coming. The why and when is very unpredictable as are individual stocks within the market.

I am in a government TSP. The G fund within the TSP has long been the most stable and most safe fund. Here's the quick scoop on it.

http://www.tspfolio.com/tspgfund

I was having a conversation with a grandson who has lost his butt, relatively speaking the last few weeks. I keep hoping he will listen.
I mentioned that at one time a year or so ago i had bought about 140k of securities on a lone of credit. Average yield on the stock was about 4%, and carry cost on line about 2%. Worked for me as long as that carry cost was low.
Actually you could see the interest hikes coming, and even tho they are in bips, tenths of a percent, it's still indicative that they are reversing.
so cost of carry is going to increase, plus a very quickly expanding multiple on the market.
I closed that line out long time ago.
It was kind of like b of a giving me a credit card a few years ago for 25k, no cost, no interest for one year. I bought a time certificate with the 25k, timed to mature just before they flipped on interest on the card.
People take low cost borrowed money and buy leveraged products they don't understand. Untll they go boom.
The other thought is the market is not one thing. There are a lot of companies that are going through this just fine.

i was also telling grandson having worked in a bank in the old days and put together mortgage loans, 07 and 08 you could see it coming.
for me it was the day i heard a radio ad for 30minute loan approval on a house with 120%financing. And you wonder why it happened.
Course the big bugger is what happened to all those problem loans the banks offloaded to the fed, just magic.

i wonder what happened with that investment advisor from the thunderbird international school of bartending who was prediciting glory days?

Down -243, getting close to that 22,800

Round and round she goes, where stops, nobody knows!

It's all gambling.