Doesn’t it make sense? If we are taking more covid tests we would get more positive results??
The news will be happy to tell you that the virus is spreading astronomically. In some places testing has gone up 700+% so yeah...more positives are showing up, most of which are either antibodies present or asymptomatic. Death rate still at .03% nationally....
If you believe anything they say...
Chui,
From my perspective, the MSM and Pop Culture reaction to the virus defies logic.
First question I keep asking is "Is this virus super contagious or not?" The fact that it jumped out of Wuhan and circled the globe in 8-10 weeks early last year, and by April could be found not only in pretty much every country on earth, but every country in the US is proof that this nasty bastard is highly contagious. Once it got out of Wuhan, there was not stopping it. Once it got in every country, and here every county, it was going to spread and nothing was going to stop that. Not masks, not a shut down, not Haitian Voodoo. MAYBE you can slow it down, but for what end purpose. Like I told a numbnutz in another thread, COVID is out there and it's looking for you! You can run but you can't hide indefinitely.
Next, on the lethality. This is a new virus to mankind. It just jumped from animal to human. There is no real herd immunity against new viruses. As i said elsewhere. Ask the Incas how they fared after Pissarro showed up with smallpox, syphillis, and a whole host of other diseases Europeans had in their society for centuries but were absent in the New World. It killed the s h i t out them. This Chinese bullshit obviously hit the most vulnerable hardest first. That would be the elderly and those with other health issues. HOWEVER, nobody seems to want to talk about how huge percentage of people who became carriers and were asymptomatic.
How did it get all around the world without all the carriers dropping dead like flies? After all, it got into every country in the world before anyone could take notice, right? People got on airplanes and flew around. Obviously not all of them or even a majority fell ill, were hospitalized, or died. A few did, but we have no trail of bodies that show who were the Typhoid Marys of COVID.
If we then accept that this is a highly contagious phoucer, then it spreads quickly and easily. Based on current testing results, it cannot be denied that a vast majority of positive tests are on asymptomatic people. Then how is it that the world cannot accept that the this is contagious, and as time goes on, more and more people will be exposed and more and more people will get it? Why is it that people can't seem to understand this will continue until a sufficient % of the population has immunity either naturally from exposure or the yet unknown vaccine that we don't have?
2-4-8-16-32-64 is simple geometric progress. Anybody remember early reports? here in Georgia, the first widespred cases were traced back to a funeral and church gathering. 1 person gave it to 100, or something like that. A funeral in Albany, Georgia that had 1 positive guy attend from ATL supposedly infected the funeral, and then the whole town, and then county became a hot spot. If it is really that contagious then you better draw 2 conclusions:
1.) You won't stop it until sufficient people have immunity
2.) Many, many more people have been exposed since February - March than have been tested and reported. The CDC issued an estimate that they believe 20 million + have had the virus, and that figure was a month ago. That could be 30-40 million by now.
I tend to believe that 20-40 million have been exposed. How can it not be? If kids will all go to school and pass it around as the nervous ninnies fear, then that is more proof it is highly contagious. If it is, keeping kids at home only slows the spread, it does stop it. Kids will pass it around at home playing the neighborhood. Just not as fast. Without an effective vaccine deployed soon, this virus will continue to rip through the population, masks or no masks, shut downs or no shut downs. It is just a matter of fast vs. slow.
Now down to the fear of lethality. If 20-40 million in the US have had, and 150,000 have croaked (and we know that number is flawed), do the math. It is not the Andromeda Strain. Mankind will not perish and vanish from the face of the earth. Is it serious? Well, yeah! For some it is seriously bad news. It's a
disease that CAN kill you. That is nothing new in the history of the human race. The only new thing is that we have several generations that think any illness can be cured with "take two pills and call me in the morning". Guess what? Medicine doesn't always have the answer.
So...do I believe the positive test numbers? I think the tests and reporting are flawed, but I contend that the numbers being reported are grossly under reporting actual cases. I go with the CDC estimates that 20 million or more have had it, and I expect that number to climb sharply between now and the end of the year. That is with or without masks, with or without school. If it circled the globe in 2 months, its going to do a number of laps around America in a hurry. You can slow it, maybe, but you can't stop it.
I have found the same people who think erroneously that masks and social distancing and lock downs are the answer to total prevention of disease spread are also ones who believe in man made global warming and believe the seas will rise up and engulf Miami within 10 years. Funny, they said that 10 years ago. What happened??
Back to your original statement. I think the numbers of positive cases is growing and probably accelerating faster than even the MSM is hawking. Logic predicts it. The hand wringing and cries of anguish over the increasing test numbers is stupid. Numbers will grow, period. Get used to it.
Deaths - the RATE is going down. The RATE people! Deaths divided by cases. Huge increase in KNOWN cases, but the number of deaths is not substantially increasing in a rolling average. Everybody out there divide the number of COVID deaths by the CDC estimate of cases, 20 million+ and you should get your panic calmed. As Chui here points out, you're down to one half of one percent or less morbidity. Is 150,000 a lot of deaths? Of course, but back to question #1: Is this thing super contagious? Yes it is. So guess what? A metric s hitton of people will get it and one half of one percent will probably die. Medicine will and has improved treatment and that number will drop from there, I am confident. Beyond that, not much you or I can do about that.
There is a race between nature and science at work. Who will win? Will the virus continue its contagious run through the population until we reach herd immunity, or will we get an effective vaccine developed and administered before that happens? You make the call. Science has about 12 months or less by my estimate or the virus wins. Until then, the virus will spread BECAUSE it is highly contagious, with or without your masks and prohibitions on gatherings. A small percentage will succumb to the virus, but that small percentage maybe be a large number based on the large number of people that inevitably will contract COVID.
Most all of the measures taken are useless in stopping transmission of the virus, and are just feel good measures. "We need to do something. (hand wringing and empathy tears follow). We will do all this and that makes us feel better. We tried" Great, you "tried". I'd' prefer something that works. How about a really effective treatment that comes onboard quickly. Much more likely than a vaccine and much more practical. How about a Tamiflu for Covid? Get a bad case of Covid, roll up sleeve and get pooped with TamiCovid (or whatever) and 3 days later the symptoms abate and you recover. Game changer! We won't need 8 Billion doses like a vaccine will. We'll need only enough for the most serious ill. Maybe 1-2 million world wide. Let the nervous ninnies wring their hands over that.
No single thing since the Manhattan Project has had as much attention, research and resources thrown at it than Covid has. A treatment coming out quick is more likely than vaccine, and likely with less unknowns.
Down to the bottom line about these symbolic gestures. Would I let my kid play college football this year, or go to college with face to face classes? My answer is yes, and I'm taking him to start college next week. he will be a varsity athlete (baseball) he will live in the dorm. He will train with the team. We will (better!) go to class. As a young, healthy conditioned athlete, I'm really not worried about his chances of getting the virus. He might get it at college. and he
might get it living in my basement doing work online. Kid is going out of the house at some point. So are all of you.
