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Originally Posted by Crockettnj
Originally Posted by Q_Sertorius
...
Then again, as I said elsewhere, you miss 100% of the shots you don't take.

Yeah, ok Gretsky.

Originally Posted by Q_Sertorius
I'm proud of the fact that every time I went on the range, I always shot a possible at the 300-rapid fire.

But by no means would I expect that to translate to perfection at unknown distances over a span of 100 shots between 100 and 600 yards. That's a challenge that is as hard as it sounds. I've known plenty of HOGs who wouldn't do that successfully. Just firing 100 high-powered rifle rounds (for me, almost anything over 5.56 would be "high-powered") in one sitting would be something novel to me. I don't think I have ever fired more than a box of .257 Roberts/.25-06/.270/.30-06/8mm/etc. in a given day. And practicing the effects of that kind of volume on my shooting would be the first thing I did before I took up such a challenge.

^ sniff sniff. AI trollbot, 13 year old, or future scammer post padding?

Meh, maybe I am jaded. That final sentence though... I dunno man. ESL at the very least.


Is this forum so full of old farts that you cannot recognize a new member? What about my post suggests that I am trolling?

What is unclear about the last sentence? I've never fired more than 20 rounds of "high-powered rifle" ammo in a day (as I said, 5.56 doesn't count). I spent 15 years in the Marine Corps. I shot expert on the rifle range every time I went - including always shooting a possible on the 300-rapid (a "possible" means all points possible. It's particularly gratifying because they just put up one nice big plate over the target instead of marking your individual hits. So everyone sees how well you did). But that doesn't mean that I would consider myself prepared to attempt the challenge in the video - 100 perfect shots at unknown distances up to 600 meters. Before I set out to attempt a challenge like the one in the video, I would have to see how well I handled simply firing that many shots from a high-powered rifle in one sitting.

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I would like to try this 600 yard test but it will take forever to gather that many 1 gallon milk jugs. Rio7

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I don't get to practice long range. The longest shooting range I have access to within 20 miles is 200 yards. There is a 300 yard range in the next County but I'm not paying dues and driving 50 miles to shoot there . That said, I would very likely smoke every jug out to 300 yards at least with my .223, .22-250 or .243. I've killed boat loads of woodchucks with those rifles and will rarely miss one out to that distance. That's from a 200 yard zero using a duplex reticle and old fashioned Kentucky windage for the longer shots. It's rather amusing how so many shooters these days are so dependant on modern technology and need to dial their scope to the exact yardage to hit anything at distaces that were considered routine 40 years ago using a simple crosshair and a bit of holdover.

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Originally Posted by elkmen1
Out of the 70 or 80 Mule Deer and Blacktail bucks/does that I have killed I can remember two shots that I still remember to this day. One was a big doe at close range walking up a hill. I shot for her head and she went down DRT. As I walked over to her, she jumped up and ran downhill, with her lower jaw swinging as she ran. I gave up after several hours of trying to find her. The second was a small buck that I did not kill, but bounced one off of his forehead. I never found him and am sure he recovered. I swore NEVER to try a head shot again, and I haven't. And have encouraged others to do the same. As a final thought, 80% or more of the animals I have taken are from a sitting or prone position. I practice occasionally throughout the spring, summer, and fall, and am capable of frequent 4" groups at 300 yards, a lot smaller off of a bench. I have never lost an animal at medium range all of my losses have been under 200 yards.

You sound like an honest and ethical hunter by your description. You practice. You are proficient with your rifle. You adopt the most supported positions before taking a shot. But even you are willing to admit that you have had a very small percentage of hunts that didn't go as expected.

Those are the memories that stick with you. My friend John shot a deer we didn't recover last year. He had a clear broadside shot at under 100 yards using a .270. I used the same rifle to to take at least a dozen deer over the years. John didn't have tons of practice with that particular rifle, but he had fired five rounds into a nice group before we went hunting. He said he had a good shot on the vital area. The amount of blood at the spot where he fired made me confident the deer could not have gone more than 50 yards. I fully expected to find it at the bottom of the small gully just past where he shot it. We waited about 30 minutes, then started tracking it. We followed a strong blood trail for about 3/4 of a mile up and down some really tough terrain (we were going parallel to the top of the mountain, which meant going over numerous fingers and draws). Then the trail just stopped on top of one of the fingers. We marked the last point and started fanning out. No more blood. No sign of the deer. We checked every water source around. We followed every deer path in the area. We looked from roughly 11:00 AM to 6:00 PM. It was cold outside, so we spent the entire next day looking for it too, including back tracking along the original path. But we never found the deer. My buddy is still sick about that shot. I have no doubt that he feels that sick feeling in the pit of his stomach every time he thinks about hunting again. The whole experience sucked so hard for me that I am considering making my next dog a scent hound. The idea of leaving an animal to suffer and of wasting meat is abhorrent to me.

But the basic premise of this thread was attempting to assign a percentage to how comfortable you feel taking the shot. That's like trying to assign a percentage to "guilty beyond a reasonable doubt." There is no percentage associated with reasonable doubt. I don't think you can really express - at least not honestly - how confident you really are at the moment you take a shot. My experience has generally been that most people who are 100% confident of anything, are some combination of ignorant, stupid, arrogant, zealous, or dishonest. There are very few things in this world in which I have absolute faith (death, taxes, and the Government solution will make the problem worse, not better).

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Originally Posted by Teal
Originally Posted by Crockettnj
Originally Posted by Q_Sertorius
...
Then again, as I said elsewhere, you miss 100% of the shots you don't take.

Yeah, ok Gretsky.

Originally Posted by Q_Sertorius
I'm proud of the fact that every time I went on the range, I always shot a possible at the 300-rapid fire.

But by no means would I expect that to translate to perfection at unknown distances over a span of 100 shots between 100 and 600 yards. That's a challenge that is as hard as it sounds. I've known plenty of HOGs who wouldn't do that successfully. Just firing 100 high-powered rifle rounds (for me, almost anything over 5.56 would be "high-powered") in one sitting would be something novel to me. I don't think I have ever fired more than a box of .257 Roberts/.25-06/.270/.30-06/8mm/etc. in a given day. And practicing the effects of that kind of volume on my shooting would be the first thing I did before I took up such a challenge.

^ sniff sniff. AI trollbot, 13 year old, or future scammer post padding?

Meh, maybe I am jaded. That final sentence though... I dunno man. ESL at the very least.

Smells like Maser.

Maser?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maser ?

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I have a backyard range and shoot fairly often. I say I shoot rimfire 3 times as much as center fire. That said, when I pull the trigger, I expect to make a hit, I am not naive enough to think a single shot is enough. If it’s still standing, I’m still shooting.

I took my buck last year at 30 yards so not much of an example of marksmanship. I also shot at a doe as she was walking through the woods at 80 yards and never found her or any sign of a hit. I have made that shot multiple times over the years. I had enough confidence that I looked for her for two days.

Verified rifle zero, cannot find where bullet was deflected. I truly believe I just missed some how. It happens unfortunately


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Originally Posted by Pinnah
Suppose your scope could calculate and display your hit likelihood in the vitals of a deer based on distance and the accuracy of your gun/ammo system.

What would you consider to be a minimum hit likelihood?

100% (always make the shot)
90% (9 out of 10 hits)
75% (3 out of 4)
67% (2 out of 3)
50% (1 out 2)

Ethical: I'm uncomfortable with shots less than 100%.

Originally Posted by Bocajnala
Guess it would depend on how hungry I was.

Practical: yep, this!! If you're hungry enough ethics are no longer the first priority. Anyone who doesn't think so just hasn't been hungry enough.

Tom


Anyone who thinks there's two sides to everything hasn't met a M�bius strip.

Here be dragons ...
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Originally Posted by Teal
Originally Posted by Crockettnj
Originally Posted by Q_Sertorius
...
Then again, as I said elsewhere, you miss 100% of the shots you don't take.

Yeah, ok Gretsky.

Originally Posted by Q_Sertorius
I'm proud of the fact that every time I went on the range, I always shot a possible at the 300-rapid fire.

But by no means would I expect that to translate to perfection at unknown distances over a span of 100 shots between 100 and 600 yards. That's a challenge that is as hard as it sounds. I've known plenty of HOGs who wouldn't do that successfully. Just firing 100 high-powered rifle rounds (for me, almost anything over 5.56 would be "high-powered") in one sitting would be something novel to me. I don't think I have ever fired more than a box of .257 Roberts/.25-06/.270/.30-06/8mm/etc. in a given day. And practicing the effects of that kind of volume on my shooting would be the first thing I did before I took up such a challenge.

^ sniff sniff. AI trollbot, 13 year old, or future scammer post padding?

Meh, maybe I am jaded. That final sentence though... I dunno man. ESL at the very least.

Smells like Maser.

Yep. “If it smells like dog schitt or walks like a duck … “ 🤪

Here he is responding to his on Maser / Slavek posts:

https://www.24hourcampfire.com/ubbt.../19343185/re-glock-17-gen-1#Post19343185

Time for Rick Bin to start hammering some SockPuppet again.

Last edited by chlinstructor; 03/29/24.

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What?

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Originally Posted by Blackheart
I don't get to practice long range. The longest shooting range I have access to within 20 miles is 200 yards. There is a 300 yard range in the next County but I'm not paying dues and driving 50 miles to shoot there . That said, I would very likely smoke every jug out to 300 yards at least with my .223, .22-250 or .243. I've killed boat loads of woodchucks with those rifles and will rarely miss one out to that distance. That's from a 200 yard zero using a duplex reticle and old fashioned Kentucky windage for the longer shots. It's rather amusing how so many shooters these days are so dependant on modern technology and need to dial their scope to the exact yardage to hit anything at distaces that were considered routine 40 years ago using a simple crosshair and a bit of holdover.

Blackheart, You have finally said something that makes sense, 100--200-300 yards are all chip shots with almost any rifle and scope i don't know any one that starts dialing inside of 300 yards, all the calibers you listed should do real well at the ranges you are using them. good luck Rio7

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Originally Posted by Pinnah
Suppose your scope could calculate and display your hit likelihood in the vitals of a deer based on distance and the accuracy of your gun/ammo system.

What would you consider to be a minimum hit likelihood?

100% (always make the shot)
90% (9 out of 10 hits)
75% (3 out of 4)
67% (2 out of 3)
50% (1 out 2)
I am 200% confident when I pull the trigger on non wounded game. If not I simply don't shoot.


We can keep Larry Root and all his idiotic blabber and user names on here, but we can't get Ralph back..... Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, over....
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^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

This----- Rio7

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Originally Posted by Blacktailer
I didn't read this entire thread so excuse me if I missed it but I think the op is going at this whole thing bass ackwards. My criteria for shots on deer is how far a shot I can make with 100% certainty that it will be lethal.
That obviously changes depending on which caliber and the accuracy of the particular rifle. My limit with an iron sighted 30-30 is considerably shorter than with a proven accurate bolt gun with a dialable scope.

My criteria for shots on deer is how far a shot I can make with 100% certainty that it will be lethal.

This ^

Doesn't always work out that way but if not 100%, it's me, not my gear!

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Originally Posted by RIO7
Originally Posted by Blackheart
I don't get to practice long range. The longest shooting range I have access to within 20 miles is 200 yards. There is a 300 yard range in the next County but I'm not paying dues and driving 50 miles to shoot there . That said, I would very likely smoke every jug out to 300 yards at least with my .223, .22-250 or .243. I've killed boat loads of woodchucks with those rifles and will rarely miss one out to that distance. That's from a 200 yard zero using a duplex reticle and old fashioned Kentucky windage for the longer shots. It's rather amusing how so many shooters these days are so dependant on modern technology and need to dial their scope to the exact yardage to hit anything at distaces that were considered routine 40 years ago using a simple crosshair and a bit of holdover.

Blackheart, You have finally said something that makes sense, 100--200-300 yards are all chip shots with almost any rifle and scope i don't know any one that starts dialing inside of 300 yards, all the calibers you listed should do real well at the ranges you are using them. good luck Rio7
Out to 300yds I don't even worry about the wind unless it's really howling. Shooting out to 300yds with a 22lr has really opened my eyes to the effect wind can have on a bullet. I haven't missed in a long time when body shooting deer but I've had some rodeo's and somehow even lost a few.


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Originally Posted by Pinnah
Originally Posted by gunswizard
And the point of your question is ?

Sure.

I've been playing around with doing some testing with larger sample sizes and using a phone app to record and analyze the results. I'm wanting to better understand what my rifle/ammo combination is capable of off the bench before I add the loose nut behind the trigger, so to speak. To create these larger groups, I shoot 3 shots from a cold barrel, let the gun cool completely, then repeat the process until I've got 12 to 20-some shots on the same paper with the same point of aim.

With larger numbers of shots, you get more statistically significant results. And with the phone apps available that do all the math, you can get more insightful metrics for accuracy. The primary one is mean radius (MR), which is the average distance of each impact from the group's center. Roughly speaking, this is the radius of the circle for which 50% of the shots can be expected to land.

The second is the R95 value, which is the radius of the circle for which 95% of the shots can be expected to land.

The results for my Win94 lever gun have been sobering, particularly if the goal for ethical hunting is a 95% hit probability (in the best of circumstances). In effect, my gun is limited in range by its accuracy more than its trajectory or its terminal velocity.

All of this begs the question I asked.

I wonder what sort of confidence level people expect from their hunting rifles. 100%, 95%, 75%, 50%? At what point would people take pass?

You are way overthinking this in my opinion. I’m 74 and have been deer hunting since the sixties and (knock wood) I have never lost a deer. I only take shots I’m comfortable making, but I don’t go through any analysis, I just know. Most of my shots are from 30 to 150 yards, many of them offhand. I have taken shots up to 300 plus, but off a solid rest. It’s really not rocket science, it’s just muscle memory and a kind of, almost subconscious sight picture analysis.

Your question is kind of like asking an experienced wing shooter how much he should lead a duck on a crossing shot at 40 yards versus a canvasback? I have no idea, I just swing through the bird and my brain sends a signal to my finger without any conscious thought from me.

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Originally Posted by Hogwild7
When I flip the safety off I expect a dead animal one shot. I don't shoot much past 350 yds.
Most of my shots are under 100.

This!

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Originally Posted by Blacktailer
I didn't read this entire thread so excuse me if I missed it but I think the op is going at this whole thing bass ackwards. My criteria for shots on deer is how far a shot I can make with 100% certainty that it will be lethal.

I may not be the best writer on the inter webs, so I accept that people don't understand what I've written. My bad.

That said, what you wrote in bold is exactly what I was trying to say.

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You won’t need many milk jugs if you shoot like the guy in the video!

I am amazed at how many perfect marksman exist!

Kudos to you all crackshots!

Last edited by Angus1895; 04/03/24.

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Originally Posted by GlacierJohn
Originally Posted by Hogwild7
When I flip the safety off I expect a dead animal one shot. I don't shoot much past 350 yds.
Most of my shots are under 100.

This!

Yep, same !

Never had to take a 200 yard shot, on big game !


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I use my hunting skills and terrain to always get with about 150 yards or less to make a good shot through the chest organs. 30-30 is a keeper! - Sherwood


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