Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Zogby article........Good news, bad news.......

The good news is that Bush will likely get what he deserves for Iraq (well, not really, he deserves to be impeached).

The bad news is that Kerry is likely going to be his successor.

May 9,2004

The Election Is Kerry's To Lose
By John Zogby



I have made a career of taking bungee jumps in my election calls. Sometimes I haven't had a helmet and I have gotten a little scratched. But here is my jump for 2004: John Kerry will win the election.

Have you recovered from the shock? Is this guy nuts? Kerry's performance of late has hardly been inspiring and polls show that most Americans have no sense of where he really stands on the key issues that matter most to them. Regardless, I still think that he will win. And if he doesn't, it will be because he blew it. There are four major reasons for my assertion:

First, my most recent poll (April 12-15) shows bad re-election numbers for an incumbent President. Senator Kerry is leading 47% to 44% in a two-way race, and the candidates are tied at 45% in the three-way race with Ralph Nader. Significantly, only 44% feel that the country is headed in the right direction and only 43% believe that President Bush deserves to be re-elected; compared with 51% who say it is time for someone new.

In that same poll, Kerry leads by 17 points in the Blue States that voted for Al Gore in 2000, while Bush leads by only 10 points in the Red States that he won four years ago.

Second, there are very few undecided voters for this early in a campaign. Historically, the majority of undecideds break to the challenger against an incumbent. The reasons are not hard to understand: voters have probably made a judgment about the better-known incumbent and are looking for an alternative.

Third, the economy is still the top issue for voters; 30% cite it. While the war in Iraq had been only noted by 11% as the top issue in March, it jumped to 20% in our April poll as a result of bad war news dominating the news agenda. The third issue is the war on terrorism. Among those who cited the economy, Kerry leads the President 54% to 35%. Among those citing the war in Iraq, Kerry's lead is 57% to 36%. This, of course, is balanced by the 64% to 30% margin that the President holds over Kerry on fighting the war on terrorism. These top issues are not likely to go away. And arguably, there is greater and growing intensity on the part of those who oppose and want to defeat Bush.

The President's problem is further compounded by the fact that he is now at the mercy of situations that are out of his control. While the economy is improving, voters historically do not look at indicators that measure trillions and billions of dollars. Instead, their focus is on hundreds and thousands of dollars. In this regard, there is less concern for increases in productivity and gross domestic product and more regard for growth in jobs and maintaining of health benefits. Just 12 years ago, the economy had begun its turnaround in the fourth quarter of 1991 and was in full recovery by spring 1992; yet voters gave the President's father only 38% of the vote because it was all about "the economy, stupid."

The same holds true for Iraq. Will the United States actually be able to leave by June 30? Will Iraq be better off by then? Will the US be able to transfer power to a legitimate and unifying authority? Will the lives lost by the US and its allies be judged as the worth the final product? It is difficult to see how the President grabs control of this situation.

Finally, if history is any guide, Senator Kerry is a good closer. Something happens to him in the closing weeks of campaigns (that obviously is not happening now!). We have clearly seen that pattern in his 1996 victory over Governor Bill Weld for the Senate in Massachusetts and more recently in the 2004 Democratic primaries. All through 2003, Kerry's campaign lacked a focused message. He tends to be a nuanced candidate: thoughtful, briefed, and too willing to discuss a range of possibly positions on every issue. It is often hard to determine where he actually stands. In a presidential campaign, if a candidate can't spell it out in a bumper sticker, he will have trouble grabbing the attention of voters. By early 2004, as Democratic voters in Iowa and elsewhere concluded that President Bush could be defeated, they found Governor Howard Dean's message to be too hot and began to give Kerry another look. Kerry came on strong with the simplest messages: " I'm a veteran," "I have the experience", and "I can win". His timing caused him to come on strong at the perfect time. As one former his Vietnam War colleague of told a television correspondent in Iowa: "John always knows when his homework is due."

Though he is hardly cramming for his finals yet and is confounding his supporters, possible leaners, and even opponents with a dismal start on the hustings, the numbers today are on his side (or at least, not on the President's side).

We are unlikely to see any big bumps for either candidate because opinion is so polarized and, I believe, frozen in place. There are still six months to go and anything can still happen. But as of today, this race is John Kerry's to lose.

You may be right in all you assert but....Kerry does not seem likable; he seems unhappy, arrogant, and do I dare say Clintonesque as in "what do the polls say?"



And in spite of what you think of G.W., I think most most feel he is a man of principle, sincere and truthful.



Perceptions are the basis of why most vote the way they do.



Hope you wore your helmet on this jump <img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />



GDV

CAT I would put more credence in what he says if he was not a liberal democrat of Arab extraction.

i say it is a long, long, long time until the election. as long as we are killing terrorists at a ratio of 500-1 or so, the war on terror will not matter much.

but the economy will. market dipped below 10,000 yesterday after greenspan said he'll bump interest rates. and mci dumped, what, 7,500 employees? of course, it's mci management's fault that so many workers lost their jobs.
bush will be blamed, though, and if much more of that happens over the summer and into the fall, then kerry (oh please, Lord, not him) has a shot.

zogby has been the darling of conservative talk shows hosts in recent years. let's see how this prediction stacks up with the right-side talkers - and if the liberals now find zogby more credible.

Notice the Bush reductions do not increase Kerry's numbers. Zogby's polls are generally the most accurate. If you've ever read Zogby's bio he is admitedly very liberal. He personally doesn't not want any Republican to win anything. I don't think this effects his numbers, but I do believe it effects his analysis. Remember the 88 election, Regan was way down and came back with a record landslide. Every election is different. Kerry does not have a Clinton personality and their is no Ross Perrot in this one.

Flies--I knew that article would make your day, and intended to send it to you when I saw it on Drudge yesterday. Please forgive the oversight. <img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />

If Osama has wireless internet in his cave, I'm sure it cheered him up as well.

But I wouldn't be counting my chickens just yet.

Nahhh, Steve, it didn't make my day. I just calls 'em as I see 'em. You might try it sometime, it would be a new experience for a Bushite. <img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />

Goodnews:

You might note that I posted Zogby's article. I'm not about to do any bungee jumping, helmeted or otherwise. My momma raised me smarter than that, not to mention I'm afraid of heights. A 20 foot ladder going to a roof top when I used to own a few warehouses, is about all I could do and I am not sure I'd try that today.

Not that Bush would try to sway voters. Naahhh, he just suddenly decided to slap those tighter sanctions on Cuba, that dread nemesis of the US, bastion of Communism, we may invade them next, <img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" /> because he had another talk with God and God told him that was the right thing to do. The fact that Florida is absolutely critical to his declining re-election chances and has a big Castro hating, Cuban and Cuban descended population didn't enter into it. I mean, if it had, it would seem like he was responding to polls. Surely not. <img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />

Flies--

Glad to hear you have your feet on the ground. <img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />

History will show Bush's mistakes, whatever they are, for what they are and I'm not defending everything he does nor do I necessarily understand him always but I honestly believe his motivations are not cynical as you seem to believe them to be.

I firmly believe he acts on principle whether it's deemed popular or unpopular.

GDV

i firmly believe that the sitting president has done more damage to the constitution of these United States than all of the democrats elected in the 20th century combined... i do not know what the answer is, but i recognize that George W. Bush is no friend of the second amendment...or any other facet of the constitution... he has repeatedly cut us off at the knees, constitutionally speaking, and has given a lot of rope to those who would do away with U.S. sovereignty.....

Bill Clinton stated for posterity that the constitution was irrelevant... George Bush is proving him right..... john w