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The Left will vote for BHO the Right will not. This is as obvious as saying the sun will rise tomorrow.

Problem is there are not enough in either camp to elect a President. Hence each camp must capture votes from the Middle. The Middle is an amorphous mass of the politically naive who won't pay much attention to either candidate until maybe two weeks before the election. This mass will vote for whoever promises it more and scares it less.

BHO, with the willing help from the MSM, will appear to move to the center and the other candidate will do the same. If the other candidate is some rightwingnut he or she will have a difficult time fighting the MSM headwinds and defeating a popular sitting President.

Therefore, to win, it is incumbent upon the GOP to send up someone who can capture a large percentage of the Middle in spite of opposition from the MSM and the general lassitude of the politically unsophisticated middle. This will not be an easy task and may even prove impossible.

I have not yet endorsed any candidate.

Correct.Correct.Correct. This is precisely why the Republican base needs to be enthusiastic, because the middle only pays attention in that brief period of time to those who are enthusiastic, and ignores those who are not. Paid advertising is useless without an excited base. Create a base that's not enthusiastic and guarantee the middle will go for Obama.

So far she is my front runner.

That is because you don't understand that the Tea Party is made up of Independents from the middle.

Tea Party = Independent.

Yep, the growing additional percentage of those calling themselves independent since the G.W. Bush administration are fiscal conservatives and constitutionalists who grew disgusted with the Republican Party during the G.W. Bush administration, dominated by neocons as it was.

True, to a degree, but don't confuse "Independent" with "Moderate". There is a very clear difference. Independent folks know what they believe & usually don't need a lot of time to decide what's "Right". Many Moderates, on the other hand, must do a long, drawn out session of mental gymnastics to come to a decision, IF they can ever even arrive at one & many simply default back to the indoctrination of public schools and media, as it's just easier. This is why breaking the chains of liberalism on education is so terribly important.

I agree with you 100% about Reagan reaching out to the independents and pulling them on-board for his two conservative landslides.

He looked them in the eye with a big grin and reaching out and over the MSM asked the voters to trust him.

The voters did vote based on �Hope and Change� in the first Reagan election.
They liked what he did and voted on the Reagan performance for the second election.
That landslide was one for the record books.

That base excitement or force multiplier as you call it is based on voter trust as much as anything.

Some call it �Presidential Charisma.�

It will take a robust and tough Primary to sort out the GOP chaff and find that candidate.

It is early yet, but your Paul/Johnson or Bachmann ticket has a long, long ways to go.
They will need a good primary to raise to the top.
Being lucky as well as good never hurts either.

The latest RCP poll average has Bachmann at 9%, Paul at 6.7%, and Johnson so low he isn�t even included on their list.
Meanwhile, the two not in the race yet are 30 to almost 50 percent ahead; Palin at 12.8% and Perry at 11.3%

By your own admission, you don't know what the answer is. Therefore your first premise holds little credibility.
Remember Ronald Reagan was first a LIBERAL!!! Read that again!! He had his epiphany and became the standard bearer for American conservatism. I think the moderates and independents will be supporters of Bachmann or any like minded conservative/libertarian.

Bachman being an IRS employee can speak to the faults of that agency more so than any other republican candidate to date.

Well do 'you' know what the answer is? We'll find out which premise holds credibility come November of next year.

If that is the case they sure won't vote for Obama. Lot of those that voted for him first time don't have jobs now, lot's of us forgetting that point. Everyone seems focused on the center, they came out big in the azz whopping the dems got in 2010. Lot of those elected were tea party folks. Saying the center won't vote for tea party or conservative candidates is just foolish.

Unfortunately, you have it pretty well nailed.

You are right. Independents comprise three primary groups: True conservatives (limited Federal sovereignty, maximum State sovereignty and individual sovereignty), true liberals (socialists, communists, and fascists), and moderates (go with the flow).

A right of center candidate will pick up votes from the true conservative and moderates. A left of center candidate will pick up votes from the true liberal and moderate.

The moderate vote is the swing vote because that vote will go with the most enthusiastic base. Remember, moderates allows go with the flow.

Finding a candidate who will appeal to the "middle" is not a viable argument. 2010 saw Rand Paul beat the GOP preferred guy in the primary and go on to win; 2010 saw Marco Rubio defeat the sitting governor in the primary and then have to defeat him and the dem in the election and he won handily. Both supported by the tea party. There were many more of these stories. Obama's appproval rating is at 40% people, he doesn't have the middle. Many of his voters from 2008 don't have jobs now. They certainly won't vote for him. Who the R's have to nominate is someone that is knowledgeable of the facts, can speak clearly & concisley, and will speak out constantly about Obama being a failure. Bachmann fits. Perry might.

Remember, the presidency is a national vote. America is a motley crew.

Exactly.

The Tea Party is part of the Republican base. Teapartiers may be "Independent" but they will never vote for BHO. They will vote en banc for whoever the GOP sends up.

Perry is the worst kind of chameleon. He is very smart & the very worst kind of RINO. Bachmann, while a bit less polished than Perry, has a natural honesty that can't be learned.

Though Perry has crafted his persona as some sort of conservative, his actions prove otherwise. The lack of spine in the immigration debate for one. He kind of said a few things that sounded kind of good, while doing pretty much nothing. The "Sanctuary City" garbage brought up during the Summer session of the Texas legislature was not ever anything serious, it was never put forth in any serious manner that had a chance of being anything but smoke. Don't fall for his schtick. He is a RINO, plain & simple.

Let Palin draw some more fire from the libs and RINOs & then endorse Bachmann as late in the game as possible for best results. If she goes in the direction of Perry, she will have proven many who are wary of her correct. Hope that is not the case, but it could be.

i cannot accept that the independents are all polically unsophisticated. in various numbers and degrees they encompass the left, center, right, and Libertarian perspectives.

sure, there's some ne'r do wells, who only watch for the last two weeks of the election season, to gain an idea as to who is most "popular."

but i suggest the independents are the backbone of the election outcome, as both parties send their constructed messages to the center of the electorate.

That�s the theory that keeps political consultants employed, but it�s far from reality. Many people in the center just don�t buy the BS from left or right wingers. An enthusiastic left or right base turns the center off. To win the center we need a candidate who can convince them they�ll have more money in their pocket if he�s elected. Reagan knew that and used it against Carter to good effect, and kept his job for a second term because the economy was improving; remember stay the course? Bush 41 rode that same wave into office.



McCain lost because he was a dull old fart running on the war. When the economy went south McCain said he didn�t know much about it and made similarly stupid statements. Then he did the ultimate dumb thing of suspending his campaign to go to Washington to deal with TARP, only to be ignored. The economy and war fatigue is what won Obama the election, not some ideological change in the nation from right to center to well left of center, although the liberals tried to make that claim.

Now the same idiots who gave us McCain are at play again. That�s my real peeve. Why should the same bunch always have first crack at narrowing down the candidates? To fix Washington the primary process needs to be fixed or we�ll just keep getting the same bunch of horse sh*t candidates for president.

Tea Party = Independent.

It is true, based on the last election that the Tea party won with the Independent voters.
And no GOP contender is gonna win without the Tea Party.

So based on the last election, who is the Top Gun in the Tea Party?

Bachmann has a lot of momentum right now, but she is not polling nationally in the top three nor as TP Top Gun�yet.
Perry has a lot of momentum right now, ahead of Bachmann in some polls, but I don�t see him beating Michele�inside the Tea Party.
And I don�t see Cain beating Bachmann or Perry�inside the Tea Party.

On the other hand, I still don�t see anybody taking the Top Gun slot away from the 2010 Tea Party Top Gun�the one with all those political IOU�s in her hip pocket.