|
|
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 7,351 Likes: 3
Campfire Tracker
|
Campfire Tracker
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 7,351 Likes: 3 |
Here is a related article from your link regarding Presidential approval numbers, the unemployment rate, satisfaction and feelings about the economy compared to past Presidents and whether or not they were re-elected. http://www.gallup.com/poll/152051/Obama-Faces-Challenging-Election-Climate.aspxWith five of the eight former presidents who sought re-election -- George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan, Richard Nixon, and Lyndon Johnson -- winning a second term, and three -- George H.W. Bush, Jimmy Carter, and Gerald Ford -- losing, the January approval ratings do not appear to be strongly predictive of the election outcome.
However, by March of the re-election year, approval ratings for all of the prior presidents largely portended their fate. Ford's, Carter's, and the elder Bush's March ratings were all well below 50%, while Clinton's, Reagan's, Nixon's, and Johnson's were above that mark. George W. Bush's rating was 49%, right on the cusp of the level Gallup considers determinant for re-election. Americans' overall satisfaction with the direction of the country has varied considerably over the three-plus decades Gallup has measured it, from a low of 7% in October 2008 to a high of 71% in February 1999. The current 18% satisfied at the start of January is among the lowest Gallup has found during a presidential re-election year, with lower ratings occurring only in 1992, the year George H.W. Bush was defeated.
Although a mere 24% of Americans were satisfied in January 1996, this rose to 41% by March and was 39% in October, right before Clinton was re-elected. Satisfaction was at about the same level -- 41% -- in October 2004, in advance of George W. Bush's re-election, suggesting 40% is a safe zone for presidents on this indicator. The U.S. unemployment rate is not destiny for an incumbent president, but as political scientist Tom Holbrook has concluded, the direction and rate of change in unemployment may be.
With the nation's unemployment rate registering 8.5% in December, Obama is in the company of Ford, Carter, Reagan, and George H.W. Bush -- all presidents who served when unemployment exceeded 7% in the year leading up to their re-election bid.
For the most part, the difference between successful and unsuccessful presidents when it comes to unemployment is momentum. Unemployment was flat or increasing under Carter and George H.W. Bush, and they both lost. Unemployment was declining under Reagan, and he won. Holbrook puts more stock in the direction of gross domestic product as a predictor of presidential elections. U.S. GDP for the fourth quarter of 2011 is not yet available, but the third-quarter results are something for Obama's re-election team to be concerned about. The economy grew at 1.3% year-over-year in September, below the 2.4% to 6.5% range seen in the comparable month for the prior five successful incumbents, and on par with or below the rate seen for two of the three who lost.
More broadly, GDP growth was 3.5% or better with few exceptions in 1964, 1972, 1984, and 2004, and improved considerably over the course of 1996, and the presidents seeking re-election in those years all won. GDP growth was tepid in 1980 and well into 1992, and both presidents running for re-election in those years lost. As George H.W. Bush learned in 1992, it is not just the condition of the economy that matters when it comes to being re-elected, it's what Americans think of the economy. In 1992, Gallup's Economic Confidence Index -- a summary of whether Americans have mostly positive or negative views of the economy and its direction -- looked bleak, registering -31 in June and -37 in August. That contrasts with higher Gallup Economic Confidence Index values in two years in which presidents were re-elected, ranging between +1 and +23 at various points in 1996, and -3 and +33 in 2004.
Economic confidence has shown marked improvement over the past few months, but it still stands at -27 in early January. Obama's chances of being re-elected could hinge on whether this measure continues to improve, and if so, by how much. Another valuable indication of Americans' concern about the economy comes from Gallup's Most Important Problem data. Two-thirds of Americans in January 2012 mention some aspect of the economy as the nation's most important problem. This is higher than the 54% "net economic" mentions in January 1996 under Clinton and the 37% in January 2004 under George W. Bush.
Public mentions of the economy fell to 40% by July 1996 in advance of Clinton's re-election, and remained at about the 37% level in 2004 before George W. Bush's win. By contrast, the current mentions of economic issues are comparable to the 66% recorded in November 1991 and 64% in May 1992 under George H.W. Bush, who was defeated. The trend points are limited -- there are only eight past elections to review. But on the basis of the available data, it appears that Obama's March approval rating and U.S. satisfaction level could be more useful than January's in portending the election outcome. By March, it should also be clearer whether unemployment is continuing the swift decline seen since September or if that momentum has stalled, and whether the nation's economy is picking up speed.
Remember why, specifically, the Bill of Rights was written...remember its purpose. It was written to limit the power of government over the individual.
There is no believing a liar, even when he speaks the truth.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 10,433 Likes: 1
Campfire Outfitter
|
|
Campfire Outfitter
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 10,433 Likes: 1 |
I'm with Esox and the others. This country has a lot of numbskulls too stupid to understand that our government is their fault.
I will do my best to cancel out MY idiot and recruit tasteful people of class to do the same.
Up hills slow,
Down hills fast
Tonnage first and
Safety last.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Jan 2001
Posts: 29,921 Likes: 10
Campfire Ranger
|
|
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Jan 2001
Posts: 29,921 Likes: 10 |
I'd guess about 55:45 in the big O's favor, unless a real dark horse Republican shows up.
1Minute
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 440
Campfire Member
|
|
Campfire Member
Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 440 |
obummer gets back in or there may not be an election any way. obummer may try the martial law thing.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 50,169 Likes: 1
Campfire Kahuna
|
|
Campfire Kahuna
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 50,169 Likes: 1 |
Some just will never understand. You don't believe that Bob. That's the difference between you an I. 
The only thing worse than a liberal is a liberal that thinks they're a conservative.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 30,291 Likes: 2
Campfire 'Bwana
|
|
Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 30,291 Likes: 2 |
I won't vote for Romney under any circumstance... and I won't vote for Obama.
The Re-pubican's can't get their chit in a pile and Obama is the only alternative.
I'm going to write-in Ron Paul and let the chips fall where they may... unless Gingrich get's the nomination. And I really don't like Newt, but I'd vote for him.
It's hard to un-seat an incumbent President... but I still think it likely Obama will be out.
“Perfection is Achieved Not When There Is Nothing More to Add, But When There Is Nothing Left to Take Away” Antoine de Saint-Exupery
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 4,516
Campfire Tracker
|
|
Campfire Tracker
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 4,516 |
Depends entirely on who is running against him. I don't believe for a minute Romney can beat Obama. I can't stand Newt but if he is the R. candidate I think it's 50/50. I agree, especially when you consider the voting fraud that is going to favor Obama.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 4,516
Campfire Tracker
|
|
Campfire Tracker
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 4,516 |
I won't vote for Romney under any circumstance... and I won't vote for Obama.
The Re-pubican's can't get their chit in a pile and Obama is the only alternative.
I'm going to write-in Ron Paul and let the chips fall where they may... unless Gingrich get's the nomination. And I really don't like Newt, but I'd vote for him.
It's hard to un-seat an incumbent President... but I still think it likely Obama will be out. Brad has nailed the issue and reflects the views of a lot of conservatives. A Romney nomination means Obama wins.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 2,369
Campfire Regular
|
|
Campfire Regular
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 2,369 |
I am no fan of Barry. But the Reboobican crop of candidates is like watching the 3 Stooges. I fear he will get re-elected. These are strange times. If he adds Hillary to the ticket as VP, he is a shoe-in, and she will be set for 2016-2024... it could be a long season of winter...
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 19,722
Campfire Ranger
|
|
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 19,722 |
Re: unemployment #'s - flawed - skewed as they show how many are ON unemployment, while those whose benefits ran out and are not working, though qualified and trying, fall out.
True Numbers would simply count how many ppl ARE working, subtract from eligible workers.
If the Dow keeps climbing - and it gets BHO re-elected, I guess it's - sell before the dump, during the pump. Hopefully the market is climbing anticipating BHO LEAVING.
Both sides of the isle have done as much as they can to scew the unemplyment number niether side like to see the bad picture it paints. I think a much better measure of what is happening is how many people are on food stamp and how many Mortgages are under water. ![[Linked Image]](http://www.dailyjobsupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/Food-Stamps-Monthly.jpg)
Last edited by 17ACKLEYBEE; 01/20/12.
NRA Lifetime Member
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 46,261 Likes: 2
Campfire 'Bwana
|
|
Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 46,261 Likes: 2 |
For the good of this once great nation, I gotta go 100%.
Gunner
Trump Won!
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 62,043
Campfire Kahuna
|
|
Campfire Kahuna
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 62,043 |
I won't vote for Romney under any circumstance... and I won't vote for Obama.
The Re-pubican's can't get their chit in a pile and Obama is the only alternative.
I'm going to write-in Ron Paul and let the chips fall where they may... unless Gingrich get's the nomination. And I really don't like Newt, but I'd vote for him.
It's hard to un-seat an incumbent President... but I still think it likely Obama will be out. Brad has nailed the issue and reflects the views of a lot of conservatives. A Romney nomination means Obama wins. =================== Seems a whole bunch of folks missed the Electoral College 101 class.
The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.
William Arthur Ward
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 19,722
Campfire Ranger
|
|
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 19,722 |
I won't vote for Romney under any circumstance... and I won't vote for Obama.
The Re-pubican's can't get their chit in a pile and Obama is the only alternative.
I'm going to write-in Ron Paul and let the chips fall where they may... unless Gingrich get's the nomination. And I really don't like Newt, but I'd vote for him.
It's hard to un-seat an incumbent President... but I still think it likely Obama will be out. Brad has nailed the issue and reflects the views of a lot of conservatives. A Romney nomination means Obama wins. No it means a lot of people have to hold their nose and vote for the lesser POS.
NRA Lifetime Member
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 4,516
Campfire Tracker
|
|
Campfire Tracker
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 4,516 |
isaac,
There is a cascade effect. If Romney is the Repub nominee, the toss-up states go to Obama. Even in states that lean Republican, if Romney is the Repub nominee, states that otherwise wouldn't be in play for the Dems come into play, particularly considering that Dem voter fraud could swing states that are slightly Repub to Obama.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 4,516
Campfire Tracker
|
|
Campfire Tracker
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 4,516 |
I won't vote for Romney under any circumstance... and I won't vote for Obama.
The Re-pubican's can't get their chit in a pile and Obama is the only alternative.
I'm going to write-in Ron Paul and let the chips fall where they may... unless Gingrich get's the nomination. And I really don't like Newt, but I'd vote for him.
It's hard to un-seat an incumbent President... but I still think it likely Obama will be out. Brad has nailed the issue and reflects the views of a lot of conservatives. A Romney nomination means Obama wins. No it means a lot of people have to hold their nose and vote for the lesser POS. I'm not voting for a leftist regardless of what his party affiliation is, and there are millions of others like me. A Romney nomination guarantees an Obama victory, and the lame stream media knows it. Actually, the lame stream media is in love with liberal Repubs too.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 14,742
Campfire Outfitter
|
|
Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 14,742 |
I won't vote for Romney under any circumstance... and I won't vote for Obama.
The Re-pubican's can't get their chit in a pile and Obama is the only alternative.
I'm going to write-in Ron Paul and let the chips fall where they may... unless Gingrich get's the nomination. And I really don't like Newt, but I'd vote for him.
It's hard to un-seat an incumbent President... but I still think it likely Obama will be out. Brad has nailed the issue and reflects the views of a lot of conservatives. A Romney nomination means Obama wins. No it means a lot of people have to hold their nose and vote for the lesser POS. I'm not voting for a leftist regardless of what his party affiliation is, and there are millions of others like me. A Romney nomination guarantees an Obama victory, and the lame stream media knows it. Actually, the lame stream media is in love with liberal Repubs too. Seriously? Who could beat him then? Do tell.
Jed York does not own the 49ers; Russell Wilson does.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 8,465 Likes: 2
Campfire Outfitter
|
|
Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 8,465 Likes: 2 |
I think it depends on the state of the economy on election day. If the public perception is things remain bad and continue to get worse, Obama is toast. If the public perception is things are improving at a decent pace, I think Obama is likely to win. In other words, it depends much on what picture of the economy the media paints ... and when.
Funny thing about the media. They're "left", but not even reliably that. If either side has a clear advantage, they'll undermine that side. My perception is they're trying to maintain the image of uncertainty. Why? Maybe it sells commercial slots in their news programs and boosts ratings?
If the economy is in a state such that it gives neither incumbent nor challenger a clear advantage, then I think Obama has some advantage. The republicans are divided and are busy beating the [bleep] out of each other. Unless those wounds heal by election day, still-united democrats will be voting against divided and discouraged republicans and we'll have 4 more years of trouble.
Just a guess, though.
Tom
Anyone who thinks there's two sides to everything hasn't met a M�bius strip.
Here be dragons ...
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 62,043
Campfire Kahuna
|
|
Campfire Kahuna
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 62,043 |
If Romney is the Repub nominee, the toss-up states go to Obama.
===================
You have zero support for such a comment.
The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.
William Arthur Ward
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 4,516
Campfire Tracker
|
|
Campfire Tracker
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 4,516 |
The myth that a "moderate" (read left-wing) Republican is the most electable, a myth perpetrated by the MSM, is based on the flawed premise that the folks in the mushy middle are the only ones who decide elections. That isn't true. To win an election, a candidate's party's base has to turn out in huge numbers. That's how Obama won so big in 2008 - his base was inspired and turned out in huge numbers while McCain's base was very uninspired by a "moderate" candidate who wasn't inspiring. If the weather is inclimate on election day, the effect of the base's inspiration level is magnified considerably.
Romney is McCain, but worse, and even the terrible state of the economy couldn't propel Romney to victory in Novemeber because the true conservatives aren't going to turn out for Romney in the numbers needed for victory.
You can believe what you want, but electoral politics are much more nuanced than the MSM would lead one to believe.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 4,516
Campfire Tracker
|
|
Campfire Tracker
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 4,516 |
If Romney is the Repub nominee, the toss-up states go to Obama.
===================
You have zero support for such a comment. I hope Romney isn't the nominee so I don't have to come back in November and tell you I told you so. Romney isn't going to get the support from the conservative base that is crucial to swinging close elections, like toss-up states are.
|
|
|
|
|
195 members (12344mag, 6mmbrfan, 257 roberts, 21, akrange, 2500HD, 17 invisible),
1,851
guests, and
1,023
robots. |
|
Key:
Admin,
Global Mod,
Mod
|
|
|
Forums81
Topics1,193,085
Posts18,501,693
Members73,987
| |
Most Online11,491
Jul 7th, 2023
|
|
|
|
