Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Why Gold is Crashing

Speculation of a coming rise in interest rates, mostly.

Problem is, the only thing keeping our phony economy on life support is near zero interest rates. Raise them, and the market goes into cardiac arrest.

It's already in cardiac arrest, Hawk.

Gold Dives As Weak China Growth Spurs Latest Selling

By JASON MA AND TRANG HO,
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Posted 06:01 PM ET
4-15-13



A surprise deceleration in Chinese first-quarter growth added to signs of a weakening global economy, the latest reason to dump gold amid a bear market for the precious metal.

The world's No. 2 economy expanded by 7.7% in Q1 from a year ago, below expectations for 8% and Q4's 7.9% pace. The unexpected slowdown dampened hopes China is rebounding from a relative soft patch to help pull the rest of the world with it.

The news also comes as U.S. data have deteriorated, including job growth, retail sales and now housing. Homebuilder sentiment slid for the third straight time in April to a six-month low.

U.S. stock indexes fell sharply, led by miners. Gold tumbled $140.30, or 9.3%, to a two-year low of $1,361.10 an ounce. Oil, copper and other commodities fell hard on expectations for less demand, especially from China.

Gold fell last week on fears Cyprus and other indebted European countries will be forced to sell their gold reserves to meet bailout conditions.

Speculators are selling other commodities to cover gold margin calls, analysts said. The Shanghai Gold Exchange may hike gold and silver trading margins .

The stock market's prior robust gains have spurred a shift away from gold, analysts noted. While gold's correction could drive demand in China, India and other emerging markets, doubts remain about future buyers.

"Anyone who wanted it had bought it already," said Ed Carlson, founder of Seattle Technical Advisors. "At some point, no matter how fundamentally attractive an asset class is, there is just no one left to buy it."

Gold is selling off despite central banks in the U.S. and Japan creating massive amounts of money to inject in their respective economies. Lending in China is also ballooning.

Such stimulus had made gold attractive as an inflation hedge, but inflation has cooled or remained subdued recently. The latest decline in oil should contribute even more downward pressure on prices.

"Deflation is the keyword now, and all the talk of hyperinflation has gone out the window for now," Janice Dorn, a veteran gold trader, told IBD. "Until this changes, gold will continue to underperform."

China's March consumer prices rose 2.1% annually vs. 3.2% in the Lunar New Year month of February and 2% in January.

Industrial production in Q1 grew 9.5% annually, down from 10% in Q1 2012. Retail sales rose 12.4% vs. 14.3% a year ago, despite efforts to make the economy more reliant on consumption instead of investment.

While bank and non-bank credit more than doubled in March to a near-record high, real estate seems to be benefiting more than the real economy. Q1 property sales revenue leapt 61%.

Beijing has tried to stem real estate speculation, but the Chinese still have relatively few investment options, said Sung Won Sohn, an economist at California State University Channel Islands.

"There are too many vacant condos and office buildings," he said. "They surely have a real estate bubble."



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Why is gold crashing? Historically happens when the dollar gets stronger. I do not see a strong dollar. Economists please explain.

Thanks,
Geo

Note: I will still buy gold.

even though i confess ... I'm not selling any gold.

Geo...you might want to rephrase your question. Don't let the TW issue fluster yourself.

You're right. There are no fundamentals driving the dive. It's pure emotion (started by a move by Goldman Sachs designed to spark just this sort of reaction, which helps them in two ways, 1) by driving folks back into the stock market, and 2) permitting the financials to scoop up gold at bargain prices). Take advantage. Eventually, when emotions stabilize, the fundamentals will reassert themselves.

Laffin...folks are losing their asses right now based on that silliness.

All I know is that I'm gonna buy a bunch of gold just as soon as it gets back down to $300 an ounce again.

I'm still kicking myself for not doing it the last time.

Bob, I recommend you wait till gold reaches its very bottom, like $400.00. Don't be fooled when the dip slows at around $1200.00 and starts to reverse itself. Just a bump in the road. Wait till it reaches $400.00. And this is just for you. As for others at the Fire, buy now.

Stop it Bob

Let's see, gold has been THE standard of wealth since, well, the beginning of recorded history. I don't think it's going to become worthless overnight. This may be a "golden" oppportunity.

I've not been known as a gold bug, however, I'd rather carry a few pounds of gold as a few pounds of dollars at this point in time.

Guess it don't matter too much as you can't carry any of it with you!

My will specifies that my gold, silver, and guns, get buried with me.

============

Still laffin...just last week you didn't know the difference between inflation and deflation.

The US won't stop printing money for another 2 years. Combined with China's financial woes and the clear financial strength of the Dow,I can't imagine anyone having any confidence in your Schiff copy and pastes.

An addendum to your will... GPS numbers please

Bob, if you believe that, I've got some land in the Everglades I'd like to interest you in.

Wouldn't you like to know. It will remain secret.

Geo-caching? Common TRH, you can't take that stuff with you ... It may burn up