It is now at a 14 year low and has lost half its value from 60$ to 30$ since the disaster. Will they survive? Is there investment opportunity and if so at what price? Would you give 10$ for it?

I was going to wait a week, and buy a couple hundred shares. I have always made money on deals like that.

There are concerns that the long term effects of the Gulf oil spill could permanently damage (bankrupt) BP. This seems far-fetched since the company made $40 billion last year in profits, but it is a concern. I don�t know what will happen, but yesterday, Fortune Magazine carried this story:
See: http://wallstreet.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2010/06/09/bp-fears-surge/

JUNE 9, 2010, 3:48 PM

Update: BP: Bankrupt Petroleum?
The fear that the gulf oil spill will force BP into bankruptcy swept the markets Wednesday afternoon.
Update 4:24 p.m.: BP (BP) shares plunged 16% in frenetic trading -- nine times the oil company's average daily volume -- amid speculation that a bankruptcy filing is at hand.

Death spiral?
The cost of insuring against a default on BP debt surged 48% to a new high, CMA said. It now costs $382,000 annually to insure $10 million worth of BP debt against a default for five years. That's more than triple the going rate last month.
One oft-cited driver of Wednesday's action was an interview by Fortune's Nin-Hai Tseng of oil guru Matt Simmons, who said he believed the company would be bankrupt in a month as it faces mounting cleanup costs and legal exposure.
Others worried more mundanely, and perhaps more plausibly, that President Obama's pledge to kick ass at BP simply means the firm's rich dividend won't be paid.
The selloff, after all, comes after a coalition of nearly 50 lawmakers sent a letter Tuesday to BP chief Tony Hayward, urging him to hold off on dividend payments till the full cost of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is determined.
BP is currently scheduled to make a quarterly dividend payment June 21. The company paid $10.5 billion in dividends last year, according to its annual report.
"There's been a lot of talk from politicians that's got people running scared about potential dividend cut," said Alex Morris, an analyst who follows BP at Raymond James.
BP still has "plenty of cash flow," Morris said, adding that he thinks a dividend cut is not likely. But he acknowledged that "there is the potential they will bow to political pressure."
In any case, fears about the cleanup and legal costs tied to the spill, as well as questions about tighter regulation of the energy industry, have hammered oil stocks lately, and Wednesday was especially a downer.
Anadarko (APC), which has six deepwater drilling commitments, plunged 19% to a 52-week low. Transocean (RIG), which has already said it would pay a $1 billion dividend starting in July, dropped 8% to a 52-week low of its own. Halliburton (HAL) dropped just 2% but saw the cost of insuring against a default on its debt surge 22%.
Though Wednesday's action was extreme, fears that BP would falter have spurred heavy action in the company's credit default swaps ever since the oil spill.
There were 1,718 CDS contracts outstanding on BP last week, according to data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. trade information warehouse. That's up from 1,516 at the end of May, 1,326 at the start of May and 952 a year ago.
Meanwhile, BP stock has lost half its value in the six weeks since the spill, wiping out $90 billion in market value. Shares dropped $5.48 to $29.20.

well, they said GM would go out of business too.
They did not..........I made good money.

I wouldn't buy it at 10�. There are no two major oil companies with enough combined cash to cover the cleanup & loss-of-income costs. Half of the Louisiana people living south of Alexandria have lost either partial or their total income due to BP's greed. I suspect BP is already talking to bankruptcy attorneys.

Exxon-Mobil & others are probably also talking to attorneys--about their liability if they buy BP's bankrupt assets.

I suspect BP is already talking to bankruptcy attorneys.
===========

You've got to be kidding!

BP's advertising has been highlighting "beyond petroleum" for some time...solar, wind, etc. etc.

so, now they're living up to their advertising?? just musing...

I read that Matt Simmons interview. The guy is smoking something. He claims it was brilliant that Obama got BP to sign responsibility for 100% of the cleanup then he states they'll be filing bankruptcy in a month which would turn that agreement into toilet paper.

I'm also curious about his claim that there is a 100 mile, 400 feet deep lake of oil sitting on the bottom of the Gulf right now. Where do they get these fruitcakes and why would the word of a fruitcake cause any on Wall Street to take notice?

And no, I'm not saying bankruptcy is out of the question, just that this guy comes across as nutty as squirrel shyt.

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/06/10/bp-headed-showdown-spill-cleanup-costs/

Where in h*ll did you get that info????????

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/bp-survive-company-result-oil-spill-gulf-mexico/story?id=10874702

I bought a few hundred shares Monday at $37.00 and change. Obviously would have been better to buy today and might even be better tomorrow. At any rate I didn't (and never would) bet the ranch on a single stock. I think over time there is money to be made here.

Maybe I should pick up more to lower my average cost. Whaddya all think?

It's gonna spike if/when they confirm the well is plugged.. If you can time that, then you'll make some cash.

The thing that you have to consider is that every con man in the USA is going to be filing false claims. Obama forcing them to pay claims quickly, isn't going to help that situation either.

They will dip again today, say another 5-10%. I suspect there is at least one company out there trying to figure out how to buy them without the liabilities. Good reserves to be had...

after reading these posts a few thoughts:
chicago always knows best: look at what way out of the money call options a couple of years out are going for, someone is betting they are going to be around.
The man in the white house talks out of his azz.
look at who OWNS bp i.e. the various state and public retirement funds as in millions of shares not to mention the british retirement fund which supports a lot of british pensioneers. As to our pension ownership, you force them to cut the dividend and destroy the stock, they you have another contribution to unfunded pension liabilities and another hit where states don't have the money, course i am sure the man's enconomic advisors don't bother about this stuff when he talks out of his azz.
Already today there are news postings about the british prime minister going to talk to "the man" about his mouth. It is high good coverup for the fact "the man" didn't have a clue on how to respond.
Refer back to the exxon valdez spill and the huge penalty they faced at the time. 20 years later it was settled for a fraction of the original amount.
there is no question that bp is going to be paying a lot of money, course they have a lot of money. The msm and the white house propaganda machine are real good at throwing caca on the walls not so good as doing something constructive.
Bp is a a.d.r., it is not quite as easy for "the man" to shake them down as he did the U.S. Chartered banks and auto industry.
On the other hand, sense he likes to give money to the palestinians and cozy up to those interests that hate us, while stiffing israel and Great Britain among our other traditional allies, who knows.
BP is selling below nominal book value although that might not be an indicator given the money outlay coming
Bp is an international concern, even if "the man" was legally able to confiscate their U.S. assets there are plenty more world wide.
You have a shark feeding frenzy on the part of msm, the administration, and shorts.
Having said that, there are still a lot of unknowns out there, that's why the stock is down.

I think you might actually get a real quote, today, perhaps.

Spoken like a true socialist. BP greed? Why because they were forced to drill at five thousand feet when they could have drilled at 500 or in Alaska and avoid messes like this? I'll ask you the same question; do you know what BP's profit margin is? jorge

They would be foolish to not investigate options for different contingencies. Consdideration and action are different. You should know that, Isaac.

Was up on the open, haven't checked it since.

Just checked it's up a little under 10%.

Nothing pleases me more than hearing some of these guys saying BP is going BR and they wouldn't pay 10 cents for a share. Way undervalued stock because of fear and worst case scenario thinking while the savvy will make a schit load off that fear and doomsday thinking.

It's what makes the world go 'round,I suspect.

At what point did you buy Government Motors stock. GM stock holders got screwed and so will BP holders.

Have some CD's maturing and am giving it serious thought. I suspect though that value might halve again. If so, I will get on board.

If we had other leadership in Washington I think it "could" be a decent opportunity. Not with the money grabbers in office now however. They write new rules everyday out of thin air.

Common sense. First, unless you live here you can't imagine how many people make part or all of their income from the seafood and beach industry. It's far from just the guys on the shrimp boats. For example, there's hundreds of people who make their living by buying shrimp directly at the docks and selling it roadside throughout Louisiana, Texas and Mississippi or door to door. God only knows how many ice plants have or will shut down. Motels, restaurants, on and on the list goes.... One loss causes another loss seemingly not connected to seafood or beaches.

Second, I believe BP almost went bankrupt about five years ago. Even if that's not true, they're not stupid today.

Re: BP greed which someone jumped me about. I suspect this fiasco will eventually be blamed on BP officials not willing to hit the panic button and close off the well because they would have lost 5,000 ft of 21" casing and the 5,000 ft of wet concrete it contained.

Where in h*ll did you get that info????????

"Common sense"
=================

That brings the discussion to a abrupt end!

Clearly you didn't bother to read any of the posts above, which is not surprising. Unlike GM and the US banks, BP is a MULTINATIONAL corporation, and their U.S. assets are a fraction of their total worth.

I bought BP shares last Friday and may buy more tomorrow.

BP stock is going to be hot,hot,hot over the next week!

You might have a point there. The FEMALE in charge of the Rig did hesitate to hit the panic button, but incompetence and indecision might be the culprits, not greed.

As Issac just said - end of discussion on your "common sense" bit. And FWIW, I do live here and further south than you. Basically, you ain't even in the same ballpark as the game that is in progress. You have no clue - but - your opinions are respected here. Keep'em coming. And, BP has never come close to becoming bankrupt. Just "common sense" tells me that.

The current economy has turned some financial stategies upside down.......IMHO.

Again, IMHO, as far as purchasing BP stock is concerned, people that can afford to take the chance.......should. Those who can't.......not so much.

I think Exxon is the safer bet. There stock has dropped do to being an oil company, but they don't have an liability in the deepwater fiasco. While they could deservedly be called the most ruthless greedy bastard oil company, they are the best at making money in the oil industry.

When to buy bp stock has been a big topic at work lately. I'm risk adverse, so figure Exxon is the better bet.

Most people figure this won't bankrupt them, but it certainly hurts them.

Various scenarios are, there price drops so low that somebady takes them over, but the question that company has to ask is how do they insulate themselves from the liability. The other scenario is BP sells off some or all US assetts to cover the costs of the cleanup, they may also loose their license to opperate in the US, which would also drive them to sell off assetts. And, if they no longer opperate in the US, what leverage do to courts and government have to make them pay for damages?

How did this happen Sam (made good money). In normal bankruptcy, the stockholders value is wiped out (Sears, K-Mart, , etc.) even thought the company may survive as a new corporation. The only way I can figure it out is you bought at a low spot and sold on an upward bump.

Man, you guys are playing with fire. I wouldn't touch this thing without some tight Stop Limits.


HOUSTON (AP) -- With each new look by scientists, the oil spill just keeps looking worse.

New figures for the blown-out well at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico show the amount of oil spewing may have been up to twice as much as previously thought, according to scientists consulting with the federal government.

That could mean 42 million gallons to more than 100 million gallons of oil have already fouled the Gulf's fragile waters, affecting people who live, work and play along the coast from Louisiana to Florida -- and perhaps beyond.

It is the third -- and perhaps not the last -- time the U.S. government has had to increase its estimate of how much oil is gushing. Trying to clarify what has been a contentious and confusing issue, officials on Thursday gave a wide variety of estimates.

All the new spill estimates are worse than earlier ones -- and far more costly for BP, which has seen its stock sink since the April 20 explosion that killed 11 workers and triggered the spill. Most of Thursday's estimates had more oil flowing in an hour than what officials once said was spilling in an entire day.

"This is a nightmare that keeps getting worse every week," said Michael Brune, executive director of the Sierra Club. "We're finding out more and more information about the extent of the damage. ... Clearly we can't trust BP's estimates of how much oil is coming out."


- (more)

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/With-...pStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

I've had Exxon stock from shortly after their FU and agree with what you suggest. Not a killing, but nearly so.

This one is much more of a crap shoot given it's size, company origins and all.

Bingo. If/when BP has to sell out to Exxon (???) the stock will skyrocket, and mega bucks will be made IMO. Isn't there insurance available for some of the cleanup?

A BP play at this time is and should be pure speculation made with "fun money" that might otherwise be invested at the Track or Vegas, or Reno. I would never invest money that, if lost, would change my lifestyle.

A crap shoot for sure.

Wasn't there a law passed back in the '90's that limits their liability for clean-up? BP has insurance for much of the clean-up cost. Also, Obama's demand that they reimburse employees of other oil and drilling companies for lost wages due to his moratorium on drilling won't hold up in court.

Eventually, BHO will realize that bankrupting the company means they won't be around to pay for any of their remaining liability.

GM wasn't multinational like BP??? Saab, Opel, Holden....

BP was self insured.

Bam-Bam will bankrupt the country and it's citizens before he coukld bankrupt BP. Some obviously don't understand the complex and monumental diversified holdings and assets of this non US controlled and owned company.

If BP were to get in such financial straits as to sell or merge, I'd suggest buying some stock at as low as you can comfortably get it.

Ultimately, BP will still be standing strong this time next year.

I'll research to refresh my memory but didn't the USSC even give Exxon a financial reprieve after the Exxon Valdez fiasco?

Someone else doesn't have "common sense":

http://content.usatoday.net/dist/cu...Id=thetowntalk&sParam=33771921.story

Which part did you have difficulty comprehending,Junior? Where Kennedy stated he wasn't suggesting they were filing or the part where he simply wanted to know what the plan was were BP to file the suggestion?

Folks plan for the end of the world everyday too,dude.Some folks even plan for their weekends beforehand. Great find on your part,I guess.

I didn't have difficulty comprehending any of it, Isaac. I just wanted you to know that if I didn't have any common sense, then neither does Governor Bobby Jindal and State Treasurer John Kennedy. I suspect they see, as I do, the very real possibility of an eventual $100B + cost to BP.

Highly likely BP will be bought out by one or more of the majors, once they get a handle on the size and disposition of the clean up liabilities. The corporate name is now in the toilet, and the safety/environmental record will make it more difficult for them to get drilling clearances....

They are not yet toast, but they are certainly getting browner.

Might be a good time to re-evaluate any positions in BP. If we get hit with a good storm, it would seem that would be pretty bearish for BP. I still like the NG plays and they're moving up on the potential storm heading our way.


http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/current




Again, I'm an amateur trader and not the best one so do your own research.

What isn't these days.............

If any part(s) gets "bought out" it would only be parts of their North American assets and you can bet they will dump their dogs, those with low roce. This thing might also affect our North American based majors doing business in other parts of the world should we hammer BP too hard, places like the north sea. Never know. Remember that BP is the major player in the new north slope gas pipeline project. Lots to consider.

It's just friggin sad that Pensacola is looking directly at oil on the way and what is our gov't doing about this?? Can't authorize spraying - now? Can't authorize burning the oil - now? Can't mobilize booms to arrest it - now? Where the h*ll is FEMA?

BP, just like any other entity, does have finite resources. If the damages reach this limit (whatever it is), they will have to file, probably for Section 11 for reorganization purposes. Any bankruptcy would probably limit their liability and any additional costs would shift to the state and Federal governments.

I do hope they can pay all damages, but bankruptcy is a possibility. A friend (a bankruptcy attorney) once told me that "bankruptcy is just the start of the game. You use it to shield assets, not just to end claims."

cnbc this a.m.;

9 analyst - Buy

2 analyst - Hold

0 analyst - Sell

Interesting analysis by guest columnist in WSJ: buy BP.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704025304575285000265955016.html

- Tom

The ship BP was using to siphon the oil was struck by lightning and caught fire. Don't now how bad.

How many of those analists predicted TARP?

Didn't realize that TARP was a stock listed on any U.S. exchange.

Congrats to those who bought!

I'm not a lawyer but I believe a judge or jury might limit cleanup liability due to the fact that the Obama administration, Coast Guard, EPA, et al...have stood in the way of cleanup/capture efforts...
THAT might be the reason Obama has done nothing proactive regarding the spill. How much money did they give him???

I thought this would time to revisit this type of fear mongering. There were several irresponsible people (pundits) that said BP was filing bankruptcy.

Pretty hard to do when you really looked at their net revenues and asset base. Of course, reinstating any form of dividend it EXACTLY opposite of bankruptcy for BP.

Mine @ 29$/sh is looking ok,,,,,,for a bankrupt Co.

trading at $47/ share today

ML

i hit that sucker all the way down to about 29bucks a share. they were right on schedule, meaning a good guess, when they announced ressumption of a dividend a couple of days ago.

I bought BP, Total, Exxon, Shell and Hess during this little hysteria and all 5 have long since been sold and profits taken.

I'm happy with my close to 30% gain in less than a year. But then it's not "real money", just "fiat" that is worthless paper. Maybe I'll use it to light my next cigar.

Reading back over this thread it seems that those predicting all manner of dire things for BP are the same ones who always say the markets are scams, casinos, rigged, crooked, and etc.