Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire At What Point Would You Buy BP Stock?

It is now at a 14 year low and has lost half its value from 60$ to 30$ since the disaster. Will they survive? Is there investment opportunity and if so at what price? Would you give 10$ for it?

I was going to wait a week, and buy a couple hundred shares. I have always made money on deals like that.

There are concerns that the long term effects of the Gulf oil spill could permanently damage (bankrupt) BP. This seems far-fetched since the company made $40 billion last year in profits, but it is a concern. I don�t know what will happen, but yesterday, Fortune Magazine carried this story:
See: http://wallstreet.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2010/06/09/bp-fears-surge/

JUNE 9, 2010, 3:48 PM

Update: BP: Bankrupt Petroleum?
The fear that the gulf oil spill will force BP into bankruptcy swept the markets Wednesday afternoon.
Update 4:24 p.m.: BP (BP) shares plunged 16% in frenetic trading -- nine times the oil company's average daily volume -- amid speculation that a bankruptcy filing is at hand.

Death spiral?
The cost of insuring against a default on BP debt surged 48% to a new high, CMA said. It now costs $382,000 annually to insure $10 million worth of BP debt against a default for five years. That's more than triple the going rate last month.
One oft-cited driver of Wednesday's action was an interview by Fortune's Nin-Hai Tseng of oil guru Matt Simmons, who said he believed the company would be bankrupt in a month as it faces mounting cleanup costs and legal exposure.
Others worried more mundanely, and perhaps more plausibly, that President Obama's pledge to kick ass at BP simply means the firm's rich dividend won't be paid.
The selloff, after all, comes after a coalition of nearly 50 lawmakers sent a letter Tuesday to BP chief Tony Hayward, urging him to hold off on dividend payments till the full cost of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is determined.
BP is currently scheduled to make a quarterly dividend payment June 21. The company paid $10.5 billion in dividends last year, according to its annual report.
"There's been a lot of talk from politicians that's got people running scared about potential dividend cut," said Alex Morris, an analyst who follows BP at Raymond James.
BP still has "plenty of cash flow," Morris said, adding that he thinks a dividend cut is not likely. But he acknowledged that "there is the potential they will bow to political pressure."
In any case, fears about the cleanup and legal costs tied to the spill, as well as questions about tighter regulation of the energy industry, have hammered oil stocks lately, and Wednesday was especially a downer.
Anadarko (APC), which has six deepwater drilling commitments, plunged 19% to a 52-week low. Transocean (RIG), which has already said it would pay a $1 billion dividend starting in July, dropped 8% to a 52-week low of its own. Halliburton (HAL) dropped just 2% but saw the cost of insuring against a default on its debt surge 22%.
Though Wednesday's action was extreme, fears that BP would falter have spurred heavy action in the company's credit default swaps ever since the oil spill.
There were 1,718 CDS contracts outstanding on BP last week, according to data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. trade information warehouse. That's up from 1,516 at the end of May, 1,326 at the start of May and 952 a year ago.
Meanwhile, BP stock has lost half its value in the six weeks since the spill, wiping out $90 billion in market value. Shares dropped $5.48 to $29.20.

well, they said GM would go out of business too.
They did not..........I made good money.

I wouldn't buy it at 10�. There are no two major oil companies with enough combined cash to cover the cleanup & loss-of-income costs. Half of the Louisiana people living south of Alexandria have lost either partial or their total income due to BP's greed. I suspect BP is already talking to bankruptcy attorneys.

Exxon-Mobil & others are probably also talking to attorneys--about their liability if they buy BP's bankrupt assets.

I suspect BP is already talking to bankruptcy attorneys.
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You've got to be kidding!

BP's advertising has been highlighting "beyond petroleum" for some time...solar, wind, etc. etc.

so, now they're living up to their advertising?? just musing...

I read that Matt Simmons interview. The guy is smoking something. He claims it was brilliant that Obama got BP to sign responsibility for 100% of the cleanup then he states they'll be filing bankruptcy in a month which would turn that agreement into toilet paper.

I'm also curious about his claim that there is a 100 mile, 400 feet deep lake of oil sitting on the bottom of the Gulf right now. Where do they get these fruitcakes and why would the word of a fruitcake cause any on Wall Street to take notice?

And no, I'm not saying bankruptcy is out of the question, just that this guy comes across as nutty as squirrel shyt.

Where in h*ll did you get that info????????

I bought a few hundred shares Monday at $37.00 and change. Obviously would have been better to buy today and might even be better tomorrow. At any rate I didn't (and never would) bet the ranch on a single stock. I think over time there is money to be made here.

Maybe I should pick up more to lower my average cost. Whaddya all think?

It's gonna spike if/when they confirm the well is plugged.. If you can time that, then you'll make some cash.

The thing that you have to consider is that every con man in the USA is going to be filing false claims. Obama forcing them to pay claims quickly, isn't going to help that situation either.

They will dip again today, say another 5-10%. I suspect there is at least one company out there trying to figure out how to buy them without the liabilities. Good reserves to be had...

after reading these posts a few thoughts:
chicago always knows best: look at what way out of the money call options a couple of years out are going for, someone is betting they are going to be around.
The man in the white house talks out of his azz.
look at who OWNS bp i.e. the various state and public retirement funds as in millions of shares not to mention the british retirement fund which supports a lot of british pensioneers. As to our pension ownership, you force them to cut the dividend and destroy the stock, they you have another contribution to unfunded pension liabilities and another hit where states don't have the money, course i am sure the man's enconomic advisors don't bother about this stuff when he talks out of his azz.
Already today there are news postings about the british prime minister going to talk to "the man" about his mouth. It is high good coverup for the fact "the man" didn't have a clue on how to respond.
Refer back to the exxon valdez spill and the huge penalty they faced at the time. 20 years later it was settled for a fraction of the original amount.
there is no question that bp is going to be paying a lot of money, course they have a lot of money. The msm and the white house propaganda machine are real good at throwing caca on the walls not so good as doing something constructive.
Bp is a a.d.r., it is not quite as easy for "the man" to shake them down as he did the U.S. Chartered banks and auto industry.
On the other hand, sense he likes to give money to the palestinians and cozy up to those interests that hate us, while stiffing israel and Great Britain among our other traditional allies, who knows.
BP is selling below nominal book value although that might not be an indicator given the money outlay coming
Bp is an international concern, even if "the man" was legally able to confiscate their U.S. assets there are plenty more world wide.
You have a shark feeding frenzy on the part of msm, the administration, and shorts.
Having said that, there are still a lot of unknowns out there, that's why the stock is down.

I think you might actually get a real quote, today, perhaps.

Spoken like a true socialist. BP greed? Why because they were forced to drill at five thousand feet when they could have drilled at 500 or in Alaska and avoid messes like this? I'll ask you the same question; do you know what BP's profit margin is? jorge

They would be foolish to not investigate options for different contingencies. Consdideration and action are different. You should know that, Isaac.

Was up on the open, haven't checked it since.

Just checked it's up a little under 10%.