http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/ted-cruz-donald-trump-delegates-222475

here is a story from a somewhat lib site, the story is pretty subjective. I am going to say it here and now if trump does not secure the nomination on the first ballot he WILL NOT be the nominee. those of you saying this is done. your wrong. with a second ballot as much as half of trump's delegates are GONE,

you need to understand the process trumpeters. If no candidate gets to 1237. a second ballot is had. according to the rules only cruz or trump can be nominated. Kasich is deranged. Many not all delegates become unbound. in plain english trumpeters, that means they can vote however they want. That means all the kasich delgates, rubio delgates and Cruz supporters who were trump delegates, now vote as they wish. Cruz has installed many of his supporters as trump delegates. Its really too late for trump to do anything about that.

saying the election is over defies simple math. If cruz wins indiana. Cruz will win nebraska, montana, south dakota, washington, leaving california to determine the outcome. Those are the states that matter.

Some just can't get over the number 1237.

Simple to understand.

It certainly isn't over, but if it goes down that way cheer all you want but Cruz will lose the general election in a landslide.

Cruz will not carry a single swing state, if nominated. Not even Florida. That's facts....

Yeah why should someone with millions more votes win? That wouldn't be fair to nominate the winner.

Don't worry Trump will get enough delegates.

Right off the bat you are WRONG.

Tells us why only Cruz or Trump can be nominated "According to the rules".

Please supply a list of the 2016 convention rules.

OH, and before you waste your time and ours looking.

These Rules have not even been written yet, let alone ratified by the 2016 delegates.

Remove head from ass.

Until the 2016 delegates and the 2016 rules committee set the rules and ratify the rules, there are no rules.

As much as I wish Cruz were the nominee, it won't happen. No way the delegates trade Trump for Cruz. I never cared for Trump, but the majority of voters do. At this point, I hope he locks up this nomination so we can all just move forward and stop all this back and forth crap.

Apparently, a majority of delegates have to approve the rules. Doubtful that Trump's or Cruz's would vote for a rule that allowed an outsider.

And if that happens, Hitlery or Sanders will be elected president and the liberals will select the next 1-3SC Justices.

dude the chairman of the party said no rules changes. besides why would trump and cruz delegates support a rule change?!?!?!? The delegates there simply aren't going to support a rule change anyways. you remove from your ass. and use your head. The rules aren't changing unless for some reason there is no nominee past the 5 or 6th ballot. That is kasich's only hand.

If trump is short on delegates his only hope is to persuade unbound delgates for a first ballot majority. a second ballot means trump will not win!! trump will not win a second ballot.

Doesn't matter what the Chairman says or claims, he does NOT make the rules nor is he even allowed to vote on these rules.

Get head out of ass.

Why indeed, but that doesn't change the fact that you are WRONG in that "only Cruz or Trump can win according to the rules".

At this point there are NO rules. Got it, get it, good.

Our luck, Trump won't get to 1237, Cruz wins nom on 2+ vote, Hillary is indicted, Sanders wins in a squeaker, and the establishment celebrates...

Well you better hope it's Trump because if it's Cruz you lose to Hillary.

you pull your head out of your ass, why in the world if your a trump or cruz delegate are you going to vote to change the rules? THESE ARE THE DELEGATES THAT WILL BE VOTING ON RULES CHANGES. LONG standing ones at that. the 8 state threshold which was 5 states before is not going to change.

PREIBUS said the rules aren't changing because they are not, he understand the convention will be dominated by trump and cruz delegates. I assume your a trump supporter, so are you suggesting a rules change helps trump?!?! a rules change leaves trump with even less of a chance.

Finally you get it!!!

Rules changes, rules Changes, Rules changes.

At this point there are NO rules, so you are wrong with your original comment and finally you admit it.

What those chages are or even if there are any changes is yet to be determiined, so I will say it again, You Are wrong.

Preibus is a low life liar, he also said the establishment would treat Trump fairly instead they organize to try to defeat him.

Fuqking liars, everyone of them.

no I am not, we shall see though, you just made my point without knowing it by saying IF there are rules changes.
could there be? of course there could. I however say there will not be, so I guess more accurately thats a prediction based on reason, and info from the comments of well connected people.

If not Trump the GOP would be destroyed, Hillary would get elected, and the country would blow wide open.

The RNC are knotheads, but even *they* have reached the point of understanding the situation.

Trump will win on the first ballot.

I'm so tired of hearing that! Cruz supporters say Trump will lose to Hillary. Trump supporters say Cruz will lose to Hillary. Let's just put up a nominee and let the chips fall where they may.

KHS: Cruz's results last night should be all you need to know...

Cruz is toast, Kasich is certifiable and Trump will put up a good fight. But the parting phrase is: Madam President. Given that, the Nation will be catapulted into a tanking economy, rising inflation, numerous international skirmishes and a near civil war at home. SCOTUS is lost for two generations as is the 2A.

If RNC keeps playing games then Trump will have every right to go 3rd party. Even though he may not win, he will destroy the GOP forever and flush current republican elected officials out of their cushy jobs.

The GOP has long been destroyed, imho...

Cummins, you're simply delusional to believe there is somehow a path that leads to Cruz winning in a general election.


It defies all reason and logic but yet you keep going there. Why?



Near as I can tell, you're either trolling or you have the reasoning skills of a child.

Rex--Syntax and poor reasoning skills lead me to believe Cummins and kro88 are youngsters.

Or drunk off their azz.

Party conventions are staged, reality TV love-ins for the purpose of free publicity for the general election. Dissention looks bad for the general election. Even if Trump does not have the nomination locked up with committed primary votes for the first ballot, if he is close enough he will take it on the first ballot. Uncommitted delegates will see the writing on the wall and go with the flow, even if only for patronage points in a potential administration. All it takes is a deal maker in the smoke filled rooms.

Logically, one would expect that Trump might pull more crossover votes in the general than Cruz as many of Bernie's side can't stand the witch and Bernie's supporters are so far left, there is no way they would be able to stomach a conservative, but Trump might be tolerable to some of them. OTOH, Trump is also so very hated (and feared) by many, many on the left. We know what fear does since that is why we have this mess. I seriously doubt that fear will fix the mess either. Hillary wins on fear.

Truth.

The clown shoe may lose to Hilary, but Cruz doesn't seem to have a shot in hell.

I think the GOP is toast regardless. Trump is the death knell.

what he said ^


I actually preferred Cruz way over Trump when this started, but Trump gained momentum.

And I agree with the assessment that Cruz won't win any state that Romney didn't already win, whereas Trump might.


still not a fan of Trump


but ABC baby, ABC

The only way that Trump doesn't get the nomination is old school croneyisum takes hold. Then we will get the hag. Cruz cant win against her machine. Not a big Trump fan here, but I would vote for him if I have too. Sure can't vote for the democrap bi tch.

By actual count (Including Penn.) Trump has over 1,000 delegates.The parties over.Cruz is having a desperation flame out.His buddy Kasich porked him and the Unholy Alliance

Add another 51 for New Jersey.

Cruz's results last night show that New York liberals win in the North East.
And that Trump cannot beat Hillary in the North East.

Trump has 987 confirmed delegates and probably more. He'll take new jersey's 51 and at least 150 in California, means he needs 50 more from the 380 still available in Indiana, West Virgina, ect..

As candidates become unviable mathematically their supporters don't bother voting in primaries. There will be no surprise surge of support against Trump for one of the other candidates.

The primary is over mathematically... 1150 is laughable.

Kent

Most likely one of the party delegates will propose a rule change during the rules committee meeting a week before the convention... there was talk about proposing a rule change allowing 8 candidates with at least one delegate to his count.

Link

But even without the rule change it will follow pretty much as stated at this site a few day's ago.

Link

Now personally I don't think that Trump or Cruz is wanted... but that will remain to be seen.

Hell, I would be real surprised if Cruz will be able to remain in the Senate, I think he's done in all politics.

Phil

Lol. I wouldn't want to have to deal with that hangover. I get brain freeze just listening to the Cruztaceans and their prophet

If Trump can't, Cruz can't...for sure. Just look at Cruz's terrible percentages the other night. He does not have the appeal to pull votes from the middle that Trump does. Pretty obvious.

That's what you have missed from the start.

Trump without any question will get the nomination so long as he has the popular vote. This is one time in history where the elites will consede. The people with Trump leading have risen. They are not going to go quietly into the dark night but will paint a blood red sky if justice is not met or the voice is not heard. A lot like the folks who made this country.

The way it used to be when All men would fight and die for truth and justice. Now as many as 50% of males are happy to save there own ass in the name of corruption for a meal and safety with a cowardice that will not confront evil. And poor Lying Ted isn't doing so well as it appears this country is doing better than I thought. For those who haven't seemed to have figured it out yet. This isn't just an election. THIS IS A REVELUTION!

There are more who will stand and fight than will coward and run.

Go Trump






Shod

Yup. Not only did Trump win all five states by significant margins, he won all the counties in the states, which, according to Newt, was unheard of. He expected The Donald to win, but to win every county in all five states? That was extraordinary.

AND they tell us only Kasich can beat Hillary...what a stinking load.

Correct.

That's right. Cruz drew all the hard core conservatives in those states, which is great.

But as we see, there aren't enough of those people to win elections,especially in the NE.

OTOH, Trump drew more votes by far...the thing is that not all those people are Liberals, which is what some on here would love to believe.

This is my first post on any of the political post.

I heard pointed out on the news last night there are record numbers of democrats that are switching parties over to R. Also they pointed out that the D voter turn out is at an all time low and the R's are at an all time high, something like 30% higher than normal. Sorry, I do not have a link.

I am for Cruz but will vote for Trump if hes nominated. Trump does seem to be really pulling votes in from the Independents and also from the D's in the states where they are allowed to cross over in the primary's.

I got to give it to Trump on one thing. He has got a lot of people fired up which I think is a good thing. As much as I like Cruz, I don't think he can beat Hilary but I think Trump can.

I know I will be glad when its over and we can get back to talking about guns, loads, scopes and B.S. again.

This is spot on. Trump is the ONLY chance to beat Hilary.

Dems in WV are not only switching over in record numbers but Hampshire Co. for the 1st time in it's history is now majority republican. We've got a local newspaper who runs a poll each week. This weeks question is "Who will you vote for in the primary" referring to both R and D nominees. Gonna be interesting to see next Wednesday's paper.

OTOH, Trump drew more votes by far...the thing is that not all those people are Liberals, which is what some on here would love to believe. [/quote] I know a lot of Democrats who are not liberals. How they square a vote for EITHER of the candidates, I'll never know. These people are bible toting, gun loving, rural Democrats. I guess farm subsidies make total whores of them. They certainly don't agree with the social implications of a Clinton or Sanders Presidency. That said, they are dependent on handouts. Money wins, all the time.

Wait now, I thought the Cummingcowboy said that the rules already state that the nominee needs (8) to be on the ballot?

Ya mean he is wrong?

There we go. Good point.

What some of our more vocal conservatives on here don't understand is that this election is not about Conservative vs Liberal, Progressive vs RINO, or divided along other ideological lines.

It's about "People" versus an out-of-control federal government and a system that has been broken and distorted.....by both sides of the aisle.

Bingo. Voting for classical conservatism isn't even an option legitimately open to us till the establishment's death grip on our political system is first broken. That's what the Trump support is about. Till then, those purporting to be running as classical/constitutional conservatives must be assumed to be shills of the establishment who are merely parroting conservatism for the purpose of placating voters.

Private sector vs Public sector and the disconnect of the officiators from the officiated.

The core of real conservatism, the core of our founding fathers. The core fight for individual freedoms and the environment to succeed and fail on your own effort and merit.

Kent

no I am not wrong. Trump and Cruz delegates will be voting on any change, why in the world would they vote to change that? They would not. Trump has to secure it on the first vote. If not he is done

At this point, that's a very easy hurtle. It's essentially already accomplished.

That is NOT what you said.

This is what you said and it is incorrect.



As pointed out several times (even by you), there are no rules at this time. So your original post was in total error.

It's OK though, you have been wrong before, so don't feel to bad.

Trump will receive more primary votes than any Republican candidate in history before this race is over. To think that the RNC would put in place rules to disallow the Republican candidate who has received those record breaking votes, or back procedures which will result in that action, is short sighted wishful thinking at best, and in more practical terms outright stupid.

Record breaking turnout in the primaries, and the RNC is supposed to throw out the results...for Cruz?

If it plays out like that, Cruz and the RNC will have effectively spit in the eye of 12 million voters, and 1199+ delegates, right before an important election. That is no way to rally support for team R, and the party would definitely loose with Cruz, as Lindsey Graham has suggested.

. We both know what I said so instead of saying how wrong I am why aren't you laying out a scenario in which the rules are changed. The reasons trump and Cruz delegates would vote to allow that etc. the reasons why and how this could happen. I don't see any reason what so ever the Cruz and trump delegates vote to change the 8 state win rule. Can you explain why and how they vote to change that? With only 2 choices to chose from and after trump loses 100's of delegates after the first vote Cruz wins

I've never seen people go full on retard like Cruz supporters. Let's move on and see if we can keep Hilary out of the Whitehouse.

Forest, Trees.....

Don't the delegates meet early in the 'week of' to discuss/set rules?
Many 'ifs' in the OP's first post.

Well for starters, Trump has enough delegates to change Rule 40 from (8) to (10), squeezing out Teddy.

Someone calls for that Rule Change and Trump has gathered enough support to ratify it, it's over for Ol' Lyin Ted.

Not only "ifs" but total fabrication of the rules and the system.

100%



Shod

The problem remains. Every Trump solution requires a bigger and a more authoritarian government.

Right now Trump has a (Million) more votes than Cruz and Kasich combined.The math is very simple.

Cruz will have more than 10. In fact I think he already does. So in that scenario why would Cruz, kasich, Rubio delegates vote for that knowing it will elect trump especially when we know 1/3 of trumps delegates are really Cruz people! This is why I say the rule isn't changing.

Math is very simple.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_vote_count.html

Trump: 10,056,690
Cruz: 6,854,211
Kasich: 3,672,832

Cruz + Kasich: 10,527,043

Now.. in the many math classes I took, 10,056,690 is NOT a (Million) more than 10,527,043.

In fact, it's 470,000 less.

Delegates are not restricted by anyone or anything as to voting one way or the other to rule changes... so once a rule change or new rule is proposed it'll go to a vote, and delegates can vote anyway they damn well please... so any delegates that were disenfranchised over this long and ridiculous spectacle of an election cycle can hold or change as to their first round vote.


Phil

Cool thanks.

Amazing how it takes two establishment hacks to equal one Donald Trump.

Boehner gave a speech today and called Cruz the "devil incarnate" and a "miserable SOB". A person he would NEVER Vote For. Lol

While I hate Boehner, I find that Cruz has burned so many bridges that he's effectively shut out and would be ineffectual and impotent. Nobody likes him and that's saying something in a Washington environment that is willing to deal with virtually any rat out there.

Cruz is unelectable at this point. Should he steal the nomination thru trickery and deceit he will do worse in the general than he did in his pathetic primary. The only path for him at this point is trickery, deceit and back room deals.

He is so demented and power hungry he's put his own greedy, power hungry aspirations ahead of the country. Makes sense I guess since he has no allegiance to his adopted country. Maybe his next move should be to challenge Trudeau and become Prime Minister of his native country, Canada.

Lolol. That's not how it works but for illustrative purposes let's pretend it does work that fluidly. Trump & Carson or Trump and Christie combining their votes both blow Cruz and Kasich totals out of the water. Listen I know this is tough to understand for Cruztaceans but a second or third place finisher finishes second or third because they didn't get as many votes as the first place guy. A second or third place finisher is not a winner even in modern America where winning is a thing of the past.

If it makes the Cruztaceans happy I'd be fine with giving the losers a participation trophy just to keep his supporters from slitting their wrists.

Dude... You're pushing the guy who was funding the Gang of Eight politicians and committees, and you're bashing the guy who defended Heller to the Supreme Court in an amicus brief from 31 states.

You own him. Just remember that.

I rather doubt trump would/will be a great prez

Still better than Clinton though

In fact our f'ed gov't is so out of control, our economic situation so papered over & lied about by official gov't reporting

ANYBODY that was elected and had the power (which they don't ) to start making America sustainable again would be reviled as one of the worst potus in history

You don't take a 350 lb chain smoker & get him in shape without a fair amount of pain & denying him the things he enjoys


That's where our gov't is at bloated, toxic & pandering to the FSA

Trump is between 250 and 300 delegates shy.

There will be no contested convention or an opportunity for the opportunists.

Overall, Trump won 109 delegates on the night, according to the Associated Press, and now has 954 delegates in total. He needs 283 more to clinch the nomination, meaning he’ll need to win around two-thirds of the remaining 422 delegates to win outright and avoid a contested convention.

Maybe, Maybe Not!

Phil

You haven't included unbounded pledges.

Consider looking at "The Green Papers" for a detailed itemization of how it's playing out.

Unbound pledges don't count until the convention... and as you said they are unbound... personally I'm thinking that there is enough that wouldn't vote for him if they get the chance having changed their opinions after all the shenanigans!


Phil

You can disregard the unbounded if you like. The fact of the matter remains that unbounded delegates have already pledged support for their district winners. You can add them up in July if it floats your boat though.

Just do so before the first ballot as it ends there.

That doesn't automatically make him good presidential material, it makes him a lawyer. I'm sick of shysters running this country into the ground. I'm sure ymmv...

Even Carl Rove said 45-50 of the unbound PA delegates (54 total) will vote for Trump, mirroring the vote of the public.

With the momentum that Trump has now, he has better odds at getting above 1237 than coming in lower than 1237 at this point of the race.

IN, NJ, WV, CA all leaning Trump, some heavily. The states that he's not running strong in, like OR and WA, he will still pick up some delegates after finishing second.

It will be a catch 22 for Cruz whether he tries to ditch the agreement with Kasich and campaigns in OR and NM, or if he lets Kasich go head to head against Trump in those states right at the end. Does Cruz risk going back on his word and looking like a liar, or does he stand by his word and let the weakest man in the race go head to head against the strongest for those states delegates? What would the aftermath of those actions entail?

While I can not support anyone myself chances are good that DJT will get the 1237. Given type of supporters DJT has those in charge of RNC aren't brave or it it dumb enough? not to give it to him if he comes close to that number.

Totally agree that the country is run by too many lawyers who are in it to help lawyers. There are good ones, I don't mean to make a blanket statement, but there are too many Bills and Hillary's.

But, even more than that, I'm fed up with the influence selling and corruption in government between politicians and the wealthy. Where would the Clintons have ever risen to if it wasn't the backing of rich supporters?

They can still change their mind at any time up until they take that first round vote at the convention... and if that first round vote doesn't confirm Trump, then I believe he's [bleep]!

A lot depends on what the new 2016 rules will be and whether the 8 are allowed back in.

As its been said a million times its up to the party to select a nominee, not the public!


Phil

Well no, they actually can't change their minds.

Have it your way... but!

Phil

Unbound delegates can't change their minds?

Um. Okay. Reference for that claim?

There are good lawyers but based upon the job itself, it lends itself nicely to slick talking, back stabbing, deal makers always looking for a loophole to weasel out of. That's my biggest dislike of Cruz. He's just another lying lawyer, so why would I vote for the very personification of everything that's wrong with Washington?

Regarding influence and corruption you and I agree.

State rules pertaining to the election of the delegates and delegate assurances of voting for the candidate who won their district...as to first ballot.

Of the 254 unbound delegates that now exist, you can bank on at least 74 of them going to Trump right now.

I can't even believe folks are still giving any thought to Cruz pulling a Hail Mary in late round ballots.

It's comical.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_delegate_count.html

Trump has 992 delegates, with around 20 to still be assigned.

There are 502 delegates in the remaining primaries.

He needs 245 of the remaining 521 and will get 200 or so from NJ and CA.

That leaves 45 in the remaining 8 states, 279 delegates.

There's no mathematical model where one of the two other candidates can pull enough delegates keep Trump from 1237+

He'll be 1270+

Kent

Donald Trump Secures Vast Majority of Unbound Delegates in Pennsylvania



Jordyn Phelps/ABC News
April 28, 2016


Donald Trump has won a vast majority of the unbound delegate count in the state of Pennsylvania, according to an ABC News analysis. Of the 54 available free-agent delegates in the state, 28 said they will support the Republican front-runner, while 13 additional delegates -- who said they would vote for the winner of their congressional district on the first ballot -- will also back Trump.

Only three delegates said they plan to vote for Cruz on the first ballot. Nine others are uncommitted.

While Trump won a resounding victory in Pennsylvania's popular vote Tuesday night, it was not assured that he would walk away with all of the state's 71 delegate votes because of the state's unusual delegation selection process.

Only 17 of the state's delegates are bound to vote for Trump on the first ballot, while voters directly elected the other 54 — three from each of the state's 18 congressional districts – to act as free agents at the convention.

Trump argued on Tuesday night that delegates have a "moral obligation" to support him on the first ballot as the winner of the state's popular vote.

"There's a moral obligation, at least on the first round, to support the person that won," Trump said in a victory speech on Tuesday night. "Now, we didn't only win, we won big."

But some outstanding delegates aren’t so sure.

Aaron Cohen, a delegate elected in the Pennsylvania's 2nd district, ran as uncommitted and has yet to declare who he will support, but told ABC News Tuesday night he will "probably…not support Trump."

While results were still coming at the time of Cohen's interview, he said he'd "have to evaluate" what he'd do at the convention if Trump is the resounding winner of both his district and the statewide vote.

But James Klein, who was elected in the 5th district and ran as a Trump supporter, told ABC News Monday that he is "wall-to-wall Trump."

"It's time for the party to begin to see the reality here and bring itself together," Klein said.

Wayne Buckwalter, a 6th district delegate who plans to vote for Trump on the first ballot, told ABC that he expected a Trump blowout.

"The suicide pact with Cruz and Kasich sabotaged themselves," he said. "That proved that the system is rigged against Trump."

Pennsylvania represents the largest potential delegate haul of the 136 total unbound delegates who will be free to vote for whomever they choose on the first ballot, likely holding the power the tip the scales in a tight convention.

ABC News' Jim Hill, Lauren Pearle, Jessica Puckett, John Kruzel, and Alana Abramson contributed to this report.

I think you've missed the events of the last 2 months where Trump supporters are threatening the lives of delegates and their families if they publicly announce for anybody but Trump.

But you go on with your belief that NOT publicly stating they won't vote for Trump means they WILL vote for Trump.


The panic and counting of delegates every 5 minutes is kind of funny. Sit back and relax. All Trump has to do is walk in with 1,237 delegates to vote for him. Most likely will happen as long as he acts like a decent human being for 3 months.

Again...YAWN.

Scramble and cackle all you want, dude.

Most are moving on to the general election now.

Glad you're taking my advice to calm down and quit counting delegates every 5 minutes. Out of your hands and mine.

You taken up fishing yet? You should give it a try. Very relaxing.

This is what I have been seeing/reading abut as well. Trump has been collecting 51% of the delegates, and he needs 49% from here on out to get 1237. He's on pace to do it, but it is a pretty tight race for him. Not really tight for anyone else though.

The Constitution isn't a suicide pact.

Exactly!! Don't understand how Trump can say I'm going to protect and preserve the second amendment and someone from the cheap seats shouts, "I told you he was for big government".

Amazing that ONLY some 40M-50M people have bothered to participate in the primaries so far. I'd say the Idontgiveashats are in the majority.

He'd bore the fish to death....yawn

This primary has the biggest turnout of all time. Trump inspired people to vote.

Try getting the point sometimes...

Don't kid yourself, many votes are against our Bastard or their Bitch. Fear is a powerful motivator.

the vote count says Trump has received more votes than any other Republican candidate in history, perhaps this is a lie?

I am sure that CumminsCowboy will be along to provide some Jethro Bodine level cyperin on the subject shortly. Sadly even common core math shows Ted eliminated at this point.

I think the big headlines should be "Emotional decision making invades the republican party", first thing you know many male republican voters will be claiming they are transgender and pissin in the womens bathrooms. Keep in mind that if Hillary is elected she will gladly facilitate your transition.

LmFAO

That was indeed a classic.