Originally Posted by Cross
Originally Posted by iddave

I feel like I need to say up front that I'm not a total-window licker...which probably means I am of course. I have a B.S. from UI, and am considered "reasonably" intelligent by my peers. That may just mean my peers are also dip-chits. I digress however.

I am trying to calculate the odds that my son will pull a particular elk tag in one of Idaho's controlled hunt areas. The situation/numbers are as follows.

- There are 762 applicants for a controlled hunt elk tag, with 125 tags available.

- My son and I put in for the elk tag on a "party hunt" together, which means that if one license gets drawn, then both get drawn. It also means we only get once chance I believe.

- Additionally, Idaho law allows for a parent/grandparent to "gift" a controlled hunt tag to a son/grandson under the age of 16.

- My wife, both my in-laws, and both my parents will also independently put in for the tag. (5 people, with 5 more independent "chances"). It should be assumed any/all would give the tag to my son if their license was drawn.


The IDFG web-site lists the "drawing odds" at 16% for this particular hunt, but I THINK that's a misnomer. I have long believed that meant I personally had a 16% chance at drawing the tag, but I'm now second-guessing that assumption. My question is this...what is the percentage of likelihood that my son will have this tag in his pocket this fall, given the aforementioned parameters?

Bonus points if you can explain it in laymens terms that my dumb-azz can understand, though at this point I'm beginning to believe that might be asking too much.

Dumb in Idaho



Thanks for asking this question, I'm loading up for my kid too (one of the drawbacks of this new system where parents and grandparents can draw for a minor child is that the drawing odds have gotten noticeably worse) and was struggling with the same question but the best I could remember from my statistics course was that The answer seemed complicated.

Thanks math guys for the help!


Be prepared for the morality police to make an arrest.

I also think you'll find the "odds" have been on the decline long before the "gifted" kid-tag issue in Idaho which only went into affect two years ago. In fact, I know you will because I took the time to do some research on the matter. I THINK it's largely an issue of more and more people being savvy about the drawing odds game played across most of the west. The internet and associated availability of information has changed hunting forever more, and this is just one more sign of that.

If you're not burning through batteries in your headlamp,...you're doing it wrong.