Hodgdon doesn't control the distribution of the powders. They control their brands. There is no barrier to getting into the powder business other than market forces outside Hodgdon's business. A year ago, you could have called up General Dynamics or BEA/NRE or one of the foreign plants and for the right amount of money gotten a contract for them to supply powder for your new brand. Get yourself a hazmat shipping certification from the DOT and build a packing plant where you receive the powder and pack it into bottles for UPS trucks to ship out. Open up your online storefront for powderpuff.com and start selling to reloaders in the 48.
Anyone that dared to do that would probably find out that selling new powders is hard because reloaders are brand-loyal, curmudgeonly, and that you don't really have anything to motivate them to work up new loads for your powders that do the same thing as the ones they've always bought. You'd also find the margins are poor. So if you did manage to gain a following through extensive marketing and advertising effort, your business would still be threadbare. Then if Vista Outdoors or Hodgdon came along with a good offer, you'd probably jump at it to get out.
I believe you just made the case that Hodgdon does in fact now largely have monopolistic control of the market. While they may not have a true lock on distribution, the high barriers to entry that you point out create the defacto monopoly. Additionally, I suspect Hodgdon likely has an exclusive agreement for marketing some of their powders.
If Hodgdon takes the lead on some modest price increases, I suspect Alliant and Shooters World will not object to participating.
405wcf
