Dog.
I had a 94 Timber carbine with the same problem. I only shot factory ammo and it did this jam almost always. It went back to Winchester 2 times and came back worse.
I had missed a nice whitetail buck and it jammed on the second shot. The buck watched me for 5 minutes trying to dig the round out from the follower and finally just walked away.
The gun shop worked a deal and took it back and supposedly got some pre 64 parts and got it working.
Last Winchester I ever owned.
Lefty C