If you are the guy that picks Google, you’re golden. But for every google, there’s ten dozen Yahoo’s (pun intended).
Tesla did great. Nikola was a fraud, and GM escaped by the nick of time from a multi billion dollar investment mistake. And so on. Fiskers announced a year ago they were “this close” to making solid state batteries work and went all in. This week, they announced solid state batteries are like nuclear fusion, nearly within reach (for five decades now). On the other hand, VW just put down billions into a solid state battery outfit in Cali.
You place your bets, and you take your chances. I think the analogy to the dot.com bubble in 2000 is not perfect, but there’s a lesson there, for sure. Money is pouring into the sector, which feeds the charlatans as well as the two or three guys that have a chance at making the moon shot. There is a LOT of money to be made, but a LOT of money is lost trying to make that big payday.
Picking those two or three guys out of the cacophony of truths and lies is beyond my ability. So I find some solace that although the majority of the entire increase in the US stock market in the last few years came from the FANG stocks plus Tesla, those of us that were broadly diversified did pretty well, anyway, without having made the long bet at the track.
