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FIRST READING: Why Ontario is poised to re-elect Doug Ford despite everything

First Reading is a daily newsletter keeping you posted on the travails of Canadian politicos, all curated by the National Post’s own Tristin Hopper. To get an early version sent direct to your inbox every Monday to Thursday at 6 p.m. ET (and 9 a.m. on Saturdays), sign up here.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford has spent a surprising amount of his tenure as one of Canada’s most hated provincial leaders, but he’s poised to win re-election anyway for the simple reason that Ontarians seem to hate the opposition even more.

In a new Leger poll for Postmedia, Ford’s Progressive Conservatives enjoyed a double-digit lead over their Liberal rivals. With a 39 per cent share of the vote (and with the caveat it’s early days and anything can happen in an election campaign) it’s a virtual guarantee that the June 2 vote will see them returned to office.

There hasn’t been a single poll conducted in 2022 that showed the PCs in anything other than first place. Even the Toronto Star — no fan of the Ford government — was declaring this week that they are “on track to win another majority.”

The rest here - https://theprovince.com/news/ontari...to-re-elect-doug-ford-despite-hating-him
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Why federal Liberal voters are key to Doug Ford's Ontario election chances

Polls suggest 20-25 per cent of Ontarians who backed Justin Trudeau's party last year plan to vote PC
Mike Crawley · CBC News

Doug Ford and his Ontario Progressive Conservatives are aiming to draw a significant amount of support from voters who only eight months ago backed Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party in the federal election.

Winning over federal Liberal voters is a crucial ingredient for Ford to find a path to victory on June 2. The Ontario PCs simply cannot succeed with only the backing of those who voted for the Conservative Party of Canada last September.

"There's just not enough (core) Conservatives in the province for you to win a majority government or even a minority government with them alone," said David Coletto, CEO of polling firm Abacus Data.

Recent polling by Abacus Data as well as by the polling firm Research Co. found that roughly one-fifth to one-quarter of Ontarians who voted Liberal in last year's federal election say they intend to vote for the PC Party in the provincial election.

That translates into a potential 500,000 voters who backed Trudeau in 2021 casting their ballots for Ford's party in 2022.

The rest here - https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toro...liberal-conservative-switchers-1.6459275