How’d I do
The election is just 2 weeks away.
Anyone care to share their predictions?
Will the Republicans take control of the House and/or the Senate?
Senate (No) McConnell/McDaniel are working hard to stop Trump supported MAGA candidates, The Dems might even pick a seat or two.
House (toss-up) lean towards (No)
Winners in Governors races.
MN Walz (D)
WI Evers (D) fraud
MI Whitmer (D) fraud
AZ Hobbs (D) fraud
GA Kemp (R)
FL DeSantis (R)
TX Abbott (R)
NY Hochul (D) fraud
Winners US Senate Race
GA Warnock (D) fraud
PA Fetterman (D) fraud
AZ Kelly (D) fraud
FL Rubio (R)
NH Hassan (D) McConnell/McDaniel
AK Murkowski (R) fraud
I promised I'd get back with you today and let's look at our prognostications.
Hobbs/Lake is still open. Some funky vote machine stuff there
Warnock/Walker set for runoff, which was expected
Kelly/Masters still open
Murkowski is losing to Tshibaki currently
All and all, you hit most of them. Outside of AZ, I haven't heard cries of widespread fraud like occurred in 2020.
Now to mine. I forecasted + 25-30 House pickups and 2 to 4 in the Senate. They way things are playing out now, looks like closer to + 12-15 in the House and the Senate can go 0-2 seats for GOP. So looks like I get half the gains I wanted on the low side. That said, GOP will control the House, and has a better shot at the Senate than the Dems. Worse case is status quo in the Senate.
Now the reaction to all of this? Depends on what your #1 goal was for this election cycle. My #1 goal was to wrest control of Congress from the Dems and thwart the Biden agenda. That was #1 and everything else was secondary. Same as #1 goal in 2016 was to defeat HRC. With the takeover of the House, albeit by a slimmer margin than I'd hope, Biden's agenda is DEAD. If the GOP ends up with 2 or 3 from NV(likely), AZ (looking better) or GA in the runoff (probably), Biden's agenda is double dead.
Not what I'd hoped for, but I'll take it. Gloom and doom and depression? No, the #1 objective was achieved.
I did miss on one prediction - and that was if Kemp won by 6-8points Herschel would ride his coattails into office. Kemp destroyed the Ghettopotimus, and there was much more crossover than I expected.
What that exposes to me is not that Kemp doesn't have the long coattails, but that Trump is not as strong with the suburban Karens. As a matter of fact, it looks like Trump picked candidates won in less than 50% of the contests. That might just be something to be concerned about in 2024. The electorate is so polarized, they are just going with whatever Party they slept with in 2020 (fraud or no fraud)?
So there you go. Told you'd I'd get back to you today. Results were not great for GOP, but they get the House and the Senate is still in play. Like winning a football game by a field goal even thought Vegas had the Spread at 21. We won, but didn't cover. Still won.
Test for you: Do you take any optimism from what DeSantis did in Florida? DeSantis last go around almost lost to a Democrat that is now in prison for his liaison with a gay, black male prostitute that died in his hotel room. Gov Ron got incredible voting percentage from Hispanics and flipped Miami/Dade, Hillsbourgh/Pinellas Counties that were considered Red forever? There is your next GOP star.
