So, Mike, your prediction when this will happen is what, this fall? The end of the summer?
Trends can be pretty hard to pick out of the data underneath all the deception and noise that governments throw in; but trends are much easier to see than deadlines.
You're looking for a cusp point, and nobody can really know when that might happen, because it's a psychological event, not an economic event. Wile E Coyote has been running in midair between the two cliffs for years now, and as long as he doesn't look down, he could theoretically continue to do so for years more. What will make him look down? It's unknowable. A tick one way or another in a key stock or commodity; a news story on 60 Minutes; a major political scandal; an interview on a talk show.
Just before I went for my first night solo flight, my instructor briefed me about night engine failures outside gliding distance from an airport. He said, "First turn off everything electrical except for the instrument lights, to save your battery for the landing lights. Then look out the window and find the blackest patch of terrain you can see, and set up an approach to it. When you're low enough for the landing lights to be effective, switch them on. If you like what you see, go ahead and land. If you don't like what you see, just turn 'em back off."
The US--and world--economy at this point is low enough to turn on the landing lights. If you're prepared for what's coming, it makes sense to keep tabs on what's happening in the world. If you're not, it's a little silly at this point to start rushing around and trying to prepare. I mean, how much gold are you really going to buy at >$1500/oz? Just relax and enjoy the time you've got left, sez I.
