Utah,
I'm a resident but in the same boat as you. I think I have 12 or 13 points which is not enough to ever draw the really "premier" units, but alot to potentially waste on a unit that only takes a few. I grew up hunting unit 49 and it still harbors a lot of elk and there are some big bulls there. However, getting into some of the places can be tough if it snows much. 1st season, you have less potential for this and the elk aren't so skittish. But, and this is a big but, that 5 day season can pass awful quickly if you can't find the elk or can't find a bull of your liking. There are not so many elk that a guy can be real particular, at least in my experience. I don't know if that information helps you any, but if you were going to lose your points, 49 is as good as anywhere, I think, to "waste" them!
For whatever reason, word has gotten out to out of state hunters so that they now think that unit 49 is a slam dunk, monster elk paradise. Thus, we've seen the number of points for 1st season continue to rise. The success rate is relatively high for 1st season, but what you don't know is the quality of bulls taken. I would imagine that there are very few 300+ bulls taken during 1st season every year. However, they are taken, so the potential is always there if you hunt hard and get lucky. I know a guy who missed a 300+ 6pt bull in 49 last year and is still kicking himself.
