In order of whom you think has the best chance

Which model I guess depends on how the whole caliber things
Here's how I see it:

Top contenders:
Sig (P320)
S&W (M&P)
Glock (17 or 21)
Beretta (PX4)
FNH (FNX)
CZ (P-09)
H&K (VP9 / HK45)

Wild Cards (meaning not likely, but have a chance):
Ruger (SR Series)
Springfield Armory / HS Produkt (XD series)
Taurus (24/7 series)

Not likely, will be eliminated early on:
Detonics (MTX)


I think the big wild cards in the whole thing are:
1 - Caliber, which will they decide to go with?
2 - Modular? How modular, and what meets the requirement for "modular"?